11 resultados para Global changes and construction of future scenarios

em Publishing Network for Geoscientific


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We compare six high-resolution Holocene, sediment cores along a S-N transect on the Norwegian-Svalbard continental margin from ca 60°N to 77.4°N, northern North Atlantic. Planktonic foraminifera in the cores were investigated to show the changes in upper surface and subsurface water mass distribution and properties, including summer sea-surface temperatures (SST). The cores are located below the axis of the Norwegian Current and the West Spitsbergen Current, which today transport warm Atlantic Water to the Arctic. Sediment accumulation rates are generally high at all the core sites, allowing for a temporal resolution of 10-102 years. SST is reconstructed using different types of transfer functions, resulting in very similar SST trends, with deviations of no more than +- 1.0/1.5 °C. A transfer function based on the maximum likelihood statistical approach is found to be most relevant. The reconstruction documents an abrupt change in planktonic foraminiferal faunal composition and an associated warming at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition. The earliest part of the Holocene was characterized by large temperature variability, including the Preboreal Oscillations and the 8.2 k event. In general, the early Holocene was characterized by SSTs similar to those of today in the south and warmer than today in the north, and a smaller S-N temperature gradient (0.23 °C/°N) compared to the present temperature gradient (0.46 °C/°N). The southern proxy records (60-69°N) were more strongly influenced by slightly cooler subsurface water probably due to the seasonality of the orbital forcing and increased stratification due to freshening. The northern records (72-77.4°N) display a millennial-scale change associated with reduced insolation and a gradual weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The observed northwards amplification of the early Holocene warming is comparable to the pattern of recent global warming and future climate modelling, which predicts greater warming at higher latitudes. The overall trend during mid and late Holocene was a cooling in the north, stable or weak warming in the south, and a maximum S-N SST gradient of ca 0.7 °C/°N at 5000 cal. years BP. Superimposed on this trend were several abrupt temperature shifts. Four of these shifts, dated to 9000-8000, 5500-3000 and 1000 and ~400 cal. years BP, appear to be global, as they correlate with periods of global climate change. In general, there is a good correlation between the northern North Atlantic temperature records and climate records from Norway and Svalbard.

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Coccolithophores are unicellular phytoplankton that produce calcium carbonate coccoliths as an exoskeleton. Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant coccolithophore in the world's ocean, plays a major role in the global carbon cycle by regulating the exchange of CO2 across the ocean-atmosphere interface through photosynthesis and calcium carbonate precipitation. As CO2 concentration is rising in the atmosphere, the ocean is acidifying and ammonium (NH4) concentration of future ocean water is expected to rise. The latter is attributed to increasing anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition, increasing rates of cyanobacterial N2 fixation due to warmer and more stratified oceans, and decreased rates of nitrification due to ocean acidification. Thus future global climate change will cause oceanic phytoplankton to experience changes in multiple environmental parameters including CO2, pH, temperature and nitrogen source. This study reports on the combined effect of elevated pCO2 and increased NH4 to nitrate (NO3) ratio (NH4/NO3) on E. huxleyi, maintained in continuous cultures for more than 200 generations under two pCO2 levels and two different N sources. Here we show that NH4 assimilation under N-replete conditions depresses calcification at both low and high pCO2, alters coccolith morphology, and increases primary production. We observed that N source and pCO2 synergistically drive growth rates, cell size and the ratio of inorganic to organic carbon. These responses to N source suggest that, compared to increasing CO2 alone, a greater disruption of the organic carbon pump could be expected in response to the combined effect of increased NH4/NO3 ratio and CO2 level in the future acidified ocean. Additional experiments conducted under lower nutrient conditions are needed prior to extrapolating our findings to the global oceans. Nonetheless, our results emphasize the need to assess combined effects of multiple environmental parameters on phytoplankton biology in order to develop accurate predictions of phytoplankton responses to ocean acidification.

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During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

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Changes in the seawater carbonate chemistry (ocean acidification) from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentrations negatively affect many marine calcifying organisms, but may benefit primary producers under dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) limitation. To improve predictions of the ecological effects of ocean acidification, the net gains and losses between the processes of photosynthesis and calcification need to be studied jointly on physiological and population levels. We studied productivity, respiration, and abundances of the symbiont-bearing foraminifer species Marginopora vertebralis on natural CO2 seeps in Papua New Guinea and conducted additional studies on production and calcification on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) using artificially enhanced pCO2 . Net oxygen production increased up to 90% with increasing pCO2 ; temperature, light, and pH together explaining 61% of the variance in production. Production increased with increasing light and increasing pCO2 and declined at higher temperatures. Respiration was also significantly elevated (~25%), whereas calcification was reduced (16-39%) at low pH/high pCO2 compared to present-day conditions. In the field, M. vertebralis was absent at three CO2 seep sites at pHTotal levels below ~7.9 (pCO2 ~700 µatm), but it was found in densities of over 1000 m(-2) at all three control sites. The study showed that endosymbiotic algae in foraminifera benefit from increased DIC availability and may be naturally carbon limited. The observed reduction in calcification may have been caused either by increased energy demands for proton pumping (measured as elevated rates of respiration) or by stronger competition for DIC from the more productive symbionts. The net outcome of these two competing processes is that M. vertebralis cannot maintain populations under pCO2 exceeding 700 µatm, thus are likely to be extinct in the next century.

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The effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on photosynthesis and calcification of two important calcifying reef algae (Halimeda macroloba and Halimeda cylindracea) were investigated with O2 microsensors and chlorophyll a fluorometry through a combination of two pCO2 (400 and 1,200 µatm) and two temperature treatments (28 and 32 °C) equivalent to the present and predicted conditions during the 2100 austral summer. Combined exposure to pCO2 and elevated temperature impaired calcification and photosynthesis in the two Halimeda species due to changes in the microenvironment around the algal segments and a reduction in physiological performance. There were no significant changes in controls over the 5-week experiment, but there was a 50-70 % decrease in photochemical efficiency (maximum quantum yield), a 70-80 % decrease in O2 production and a threefold reduction in calcification rate in the elevated CO2 and high temperature treatment. Calcification in these species is closely coupled with photosynthesis, such that a decrease in photosynthetic efficiency leads to a decrease in calcification. Although pH seems to be the main factor affecting Halimeda species, heat stress also has an impact on their photosystem II photochemical efficiency. There was a strong combined effect of elevated CO2 and temperature in both species, where exposure to elevated CO2 or temperature alone decreased photosynthesis and calcification, but exposure to both elevated CO2 and temperature caused a greater decline in photosynthesis and calcification than in each stress individually. Our study shows that ocean acidification and ocean warming are drivers of calcification and photosynthesis inhibition in Halimeda. Predicted climate change scenarios for 2100 would therefore severely affect the fitness of Halimeda, which can result in a strongly reduced production of carbonate sediments on coral reefs under such changed climate conditions.

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The Sulu Sea is located in the 'warm pool' of the western Pacific Ocean, where mean annual temperatures are the highest of anywhere on Earth. Because this large heat source supplies the atmosphere with a significant portion of its water vapour and latent heat, understanding the climate history of the region is important for reconstructing global palaeoclimate and for predicting future climate change. Changes in the oxygen isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera from Sulu Sea sediments have previously been shown to reflect changes in the planetary ice volume at glacial-interglacial and millenial timeseales, and such records have been obtained for the late Pleistocene epoch and the last deglaciation (Linsley and Thunell, 1990, doi:10.1029/PA005i006p01025; Lindley and Dunbar, 1994, doi:10.1029/93PA03216; Kudrass et al., 1991, doi:10.1038/349406a0). Here I present results that extend the millenial time resolution record back to 150,000 years before present. On timescales of around 10,000 years, the Sulu Sea oxygen-isotope record matches changes in sea level deduced from coral terraces on the Huon peninsula (Chappell and Shackleton, doi:10.1038/324137a0). This is particularly the case during isotope stage 3 (an interglacial period 23,000 to 58,000 years ago) where the Sulu Sea oxygen-isotope record deviates from the SPECMAP deep-ocean oxygen-isotope record (Imbrie et al., 1984). Thus these results support the idea (Chappell and Shackleton, doi:10.1038/324137a0; Shackleton, 1987, doi:10.1016/0277-3791(87)90003-5) that there were higher sea levels and less continental ice during stage 3 than the SPECMAP record implies and that sea level during this interglacial was just 40-50 metres below present levels. The subsequent rate of increase in continental ice volume during the return to full glacial conditions was correspondingly faster than previously thought.

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This synthesis dataset contains records of freshwater peat and lake sediments from continental shelves and coastal areas. Information included is site location (when available), thickness and description of terrestrial sediments as well as underlying and overlying sediments, dates (when available), and references.

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The combined impacts of future scenarios of ocean acidification and global warming on the larvae of a cold-eurythermal spider crab, Hyas araneus L., were investigated in one of its southernmost populations (living around Helgoland, southern North Sea, 54°N) and one of the northernmost populations (Svalbard, North Atlantic, 79°N). Larvae were exposed at temperatures of 3, 9 and 15°C to present day normocapnia (380 ppm CO2) and to CO2 conditions expected for the near or medium-term future (710 ppm by 2100 and 3000 ppm CO2 by 2300 and beyond). Larval development time and biochemical composition were studied in the larval stages Zoea I, II, and Megalopa. Permanent differences in instar duration between both populations were detected in all stages, likely as a result of evolutionary temperature adaptation. With the exception of Zoea II at 3°C and under all CO2 conditions, development in all instars from Svalbard was delayed compared to those from Helgoland, under all conditions. Most prominently, development was much longer and fewer specimens morphosed to the first crab instar in the Megalopa from Svalbard than from Helgoland. Enhanced CO2 levels (710 and particularly 3000 ppm), caused extended duration of larval development and reduced larval growth (measured as dry mass) and fitness (decreasing C/N ratio, a proxy of the lipid content). Such effects were strongest in the zoeal stages in Svalbard larvae, and during the Megalopa instar in Helgoland larvae.

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Biological mediation of carbonate dissolution represents a fundamental component of the destructive forces acting on coral reef ecosystems. Whereas ocean acidification can increase dissolution of carbonate substrates, the combined impact of ocean acidification and warming on the microbioerosion of coral skeletons remains unknown. Here, we exposed skeletons of the reef-building corals, Porites cylindrica and Isopora cuneata, to present-day (Control: 400 µatm - 24 °C) and future pCO2-temperature scenarios projected for the end of the century (Medium: +230 µatm - +2 °C; High: +610 µatm - +4 °C). Skeletons were also subjected to permanent darkness with initial sodium hypochlorite incubation, and natural light without sodium hypochlorite incubation to isolate the environmental effect of acidic seawater (i.e., Omega aragonite <1) from the biological effect of photosynthetic microborers. Our results indicated that skeletal dissolution is predominantly driven by photosynthetic microborers, as samples held in the dark did not decalcify. In contrast, dissolution of skeletons exposed to light increased under elevated pCO2-temperature scenarios, with P. cylindrica experiencing higher dissolution rates per month (89%) than I. cuneata (46%) in the high treatment relative to control. The effects of future pCO2-temperature scenarios on the structure of endolithic communities were only identified in P. cylindrica and were mostly associated with a higher abundance of the green algae Ostreobium spp. Enhanced skeletal dissolution was also associated with increased endolithic biomass and respiration under elevated pCO2-temperature scenarios. Our results suggest that future projections of ocean acidification and warming will lead to increased rates of microbioerosion. However, the magnitude of bioerosion responses may depend on the structural properties of coral skeletons, with a range of implications for reef carbonate losses under warmer and more acidic oceans.

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Future warming is predicted to shift the Earth system into a mode with progressive increase and vigour of extreme climate events possibly stimulating other mechanisms that invigorate global warming. This study provides new data and modelling investigating climatic consequences and biogeochemical feedbacks that happened in a warmer world ~112 Myr ago. Our study focuses on the Cretaceous Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) 1b and explores how the Earth system responded to a moderate ~25,000 yr lasting climate perturbation that is modelled to be less than 1 °C in global average temperature. Using a new chronological model for OAE 1b we present high-resolution elemental and bulk carbon isotope records from DSDP Site 545 from Mazagan Plateau off NW Africa and combine this information with a coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The simulations suggest that a perturbation at the onset of OAE 1b caused almost instantaneous warming of the atmosphere on the order of 0.3 °C followed by a longer (~45,000 yr) period of ~0.8 °C cooling. The marine records from DSDP Site 545 support that these moderate swings in global climate had immediate consequences for African continental supply of mineral matter and nutrients (phosphorous), subsequent oxygen availability, and organic carbon burial in the eastern subtropical Atlantic, however, without turning the ocean anoxic. The match between modelling results and stratigraphic isotopic data support previous studies [summarized in Jenkyns 2003, doi:10.1098/rsta.2003.1240] in that methane emission from marine hydrates, albeit moderate in dimension, may have been the trigger for OAE 1b, though we can not finally rule out alternative mechanisms. Following the hydrate mechanism a total of 1.15 * 10**18 g methane carbon (delta13C=-60 ?), equivalent to about 10% to the total modern gas hydrate inventory, generated the delta13Ccarb profile recorded in the section. Modelling suggests a combination of moderate-scale methane pulses supplemented by continuous methane emission at elevated levels over ~25,000 yr. The proposed mechanism, though difficult to finally confirm in the geological past, is arguably more likely to occur in a warmer world and apparently perturbs global climate and ocean chemistry almost instantaneously. This study shows that, once set-off, this mechanism can maintain Earth's climate in a perturbed mode over geological time leading to pronounced changes in regional climate.