Initial biomass and biomass change of tundra and forest plants in three herbivore treatments in Norway and Sweden

Recent Pan-Arctic shrub expansion has been interpreted as a response to a warmer climate. However, herbivores can also influence the abundance of shrubs in arctic ecosystems. We addressed these alternative explanations by following the changes in plant community composition during the last 10 years in permanent plots inside and outside exclosures with different mesh sizes that exclude either only reindeer or all mammalian herbivores including voles and lemmings. The exclosures were replicated at three forest and tundra sites at four different locations along a climatic gradient (oceanic to continental) in northern Fennoscandia. Since the last 10 years have been exceptionally warm, we could study how warming has influenced the vegetation in different grazing treatments. Our results show that the abundance of the dominant shrub, Betula nana, has increased during the last decade, but that the increase was more pronounced when herbivores were excluded. Reindeer have the largest effect on shrubs in tundra, while voles and lemmings have a larger effect in the forest. The positive relationship between annual mean temperature and shrub growth in the absence of herbivores and the lack of relationships in grazed controls is another indication that shrub abundance is controlled by an interaction between herbivores and climate. In addition to their effects on taller shrubs (> 0.3 m), reindeer reduced the abundance of lichens, whereas microtine rodents reduced the abundance of dwarf shrubs (< 0.3 m) and mosses. In contrast to short-term responses, competitive interactions between dwarf shrubs and lichens were evident in the long term. These results show that herbivores have to be considered in order to understand how a changing climate will influence tundra ecosystems.

Aprubt climate change events in the Northeastern Atlantic Ocean

The western Iberian margin has been one of the key locations to study abrupt glacial climate change and associated interhemispheric linkages. The regional variability in the response to those events is being studied by combining a multitude of published and new records. Looking at the trend from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 10 to 2, the planktic foraminifer data, conform with the alkenone record of Martrat et al. [2007], shows that abrupt climate change events, especially the Heinrich events, became more frequent and their impacts in general stronger during the last glacial cycle. However, there were two older periods with strong impacts on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the Heinrich-type event associated with Termination (T) IV and the one occurring during MIS 8 (269 to 265 ka). During the Heinrich stadials of the last glacial cycle, the polar front reached the northern Iberian margin (ca. 41°N), while the arctic front was located in the vicinity of 39°N. During all the glacial periods studied, there existed a boundary at the latter latitude, either the arctic front during extreme cold events or the subarctic front during less strong coolings or warmer glacials. Along with these fronts sea surface temperatures (SST) increased southward by about 1°C per one degree of latitude leading to steep temperature gradients in the eastern North Atlantic and pointing to a close vicinity between subpolar and subtropical waters. The southern Iberian margin was always bathed by subtropical water masses - surface and/ or subsurface ones -, but there were periods when these waters also penetrated northward to 40.6°N. Glacial hydrographic conditions were similar during MIS 2 and 4, but much different during MIS 6. MIS 6 was a warmer glacial with the polar front being located further to the north allowing the subtropical surface and subsurface waters to reach at minimum as far north as 40.6°N and resulting in relative stable conditions on the southern margin. In the vertical structure, the Greenland-type climate oscillations during the last glacial cycle were recorded down to 2465 m during the Heinrich stadials, i.e. slightly deeper than in the western basin. This deeper boundary is related to the admixing of Mediterranean Outflow Water, which also explains the better ventilation of the intermediate-depth water column on the Iberian margin. This compilation revealed that latitudinal, longitudinal and vertical gradients existed in the waters along the Iberian margin, i.e. in a relative restricted area, but sufficient paleo-data exists now to validate regional climate models for abrupt climate change events in the northeastern North Atlantic Ocean.

Deforesting Europe: pollen-inferred Holocene land cover change using the 'pseudobiomization' approach

Maps of continental-scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time-scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio-ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan-European land cover change for the period 9000 BP to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 BP through reduction in broad-leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan-European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 BP onwards. From 2200 BP land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 BP. Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover-climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.

(Table 3) Leaf area and leaf nitrogen for deciduous, evergreen, forb and graminoid species at Barrow, Svalbard and Zackenberg

Arctic vegetation is characterized by high spatial variability in plant functional type (PFT) composition and gross primary productivity (P). Despite this variability, the two main drivers of P in sub-Arctic tundra are leaf area index (LT) and total foliar nitrogen (NT). LT and NT have been shown to be tightly coupled across PFTs in sub-Arctic tundra vegetation, which simplifies up-scaling by allowing quantification of the main drivers of P from remotely sensed LT. Our objective was to test the LT-NT relationship across multiple Arctic latitudes and to assess LT as a predictor of P for the pan-Arctic. Including PFT-specific parameters in models of LT-NT coupling provided only incremental improvements in model fit, but significant improvements were gained from including site-specific parameters. The degree of curvature in the LT-NT relationship, controlled by a fitted canopy nitrogen extinction co-efficient, was negatively related to average levels of diffuse radiation at a site. This is consistent with theoretical predictions of more uniform vertical canopy N distributions under diffuse light conditions. Higher latitude sites had higher average leaf N content by mass (NM), and we show for the first time that LT-NT coupling is achieved across latitudes via canopy-scale trade-offs between NM and leaf mass per unit leaf area (LM). Site-specific parameters provided small but significant improvements in models of P based on LT and moss cover. Our results suggest that differences in LT-NT coupling between sites could be used to improve pan-Arctic models of P and we provide unique evidence that prevailing radiation conditions can significantly affect N allocation over regional scales.

Gridded climate data from 5 Global Climate Models (GCM) of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) downscaled to 30 arc seconds for Europe, with links to NetCDF files

Studies on the impact of historical, current and future global change require very high-resolution climate data (less or equal 1km) as a basis for modelled responses, meaning that data from digital climate models generally require substantial rescaling. Another shortcoming of available datasets on past climate is that the effects of sea level rise and fall are not considered. Without such information, the study of glacial refugia or early Holocene plant and animal migration are incomplete if not impossible. Sea level at the last glacial maximum (LGM) was approximately 125m lower, creating substantial additional terrestrial area for which no current baseline data exist. Here, we introduce the development of a novel, gridded climate dataset for LGM that is both very high resolution (1km) and extends to the LGM sea and land mask. We developed two methods to extend current terrestrial precipitation and temperature data to areas between the current and LGM coastlines. The absolute interpolation error is less than 1°C and 0.5 °C for 98.9% and 87.8% of all pixels for the first two 1 arc degree distance zones. We use the change factor method with these newly assembled baseline data to downscale five global circulation models of LGM climate to a resolution of 1km for Europe. As additional variables we calculate 19 'bioclimatic' variables, which are often used in climate change impact studies on biological diversity. The new LGM climate maps are well suited for analysing refugia and migration during Holocene warming following the LGM.

Performance data of the coral Pocillopora verrucosa and environmental conditions along the Saudi Arabian Red Sea coast as assessed during 3 expeditions in the years 2011 and 2012

Large scale patterns of ecologically relevant traits may help identify drivers of their variability and conditions beneficial or adverse to the expression of these traits. Antimicrofouling defenses in scleractinian corals regulate the establishment of the associated biofilm as well as the risks of infection. The Saudi Arabian Red Sea coast features a pronounced thermal and nutritional gradient including regions and seasons with potentially stressful conditions to corals. Assessing the patterns of antimicrofouling defenses across the Red Sea may hint at the susceptibility of corals to global change. We investigated microfouling pressure as well as the relative strength of 2 alternative antimicrofouling defenses (chemical antisettlement activity, mucus release) along the pronounced environmental gradient along the Saudi Arabian Red Sea coast in 2 successive years. Microfouling pressure was exceptionally low along most of the coast but sharply increased at the southernmost sites. Mucus release correlated with temperature. Chemical defense tended to anti-correlate with mucus release. As a result, the combined action of mucus release and chemical antimicrofouling defense seemed to warrant sufficient defense against microbes along the entire coast. In the future, however, we expect enhanced energetic strain on corals when warming and/or eutrophication lead to higher bacterial fouling pressure and a shift towards putatively more costly defense by mucus release.

Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling

Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different sce- narios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond.