Probability inundation map for a scenario combining storm surge and sea-level rise

Coastal managers require reliable spatial data on the extent and timing of potential coastal inundation, particularly in a changing climate. Most sea level rise (SLR) vulnerability assessments are undertaken using the easily implemented bathtub approach, where areas adjacent to the sea and below a given elevation are mapped using a deterministic line dividing potentially inundated from dry areas. This method only requires elevation data usually in the form of a digital elevation model (DEM). However, inherent errors in the DEM and spatial analysis of the bathtub model propagate into the inundation mapping. The aim of this study was to assess the impacts of spatially variable and spatially correlated elevation errors in high-spatial resolution DEMs for mapping coastal inundation. Elevation errors were best modelled using regression-kriging. This geostatistical model takes the spatial correlation in elevation errors into account, which has a significant impact on analyses that include spatial interactions, such as inundation modelling. The spatial variability of elevation errors was partially explained by land cover and terrain variables. Elevation errors were simulated using sequential Gaussian simulation, a Monte Carlo probabilistic approach. 1,000 error simulations were added to the original DEM and reclassified using a hydrologically correct bathtub method. The probability of inundation to a scenario combining a 1 in 100 year storm event over a 1 m SLR was calculated by counting the proportion of times from the 1,000 simulations that a location was inundated. This probabilistic approach can be used in a risk-aversive decision making process by planning for scenarios with different probabilities of occurrence. For example, results showed that when considering a 1% probability exceedance, the inundated area was approximately 11% larger than mapped using the deterministic bathtub approach. The probabilistic approach provides visually intuitive maps that convey uncertainties inherent to spatial data and analysis.

Mean dynamic topography and oceanographic parameters estimated from an inverse model and satellite geodesy, with link to model result in one single NetCDF file (392 MB), including the inverse data error covariance

Geostrophic surface velocities can be derived from the gradients of the mean dynamic topography-the difference between the mean sea surface and the geoid. Therefore, independently observed mean dynamic topography data are valuable input parameters and constraints for ocean circulation models. For a successful fit to observational dynamic topography data, not only the mean dynamic topography on the particular ocean model grid is required, but also information about its inverse covariance matrix. The calculation of the mean dynamic topography from satellite-based gravity field models and altimetric sea surface height measurements, however, is not straightforward. For this purpose, we previously developed an integrated approach to combining these two different observation groups in a consistent way without using the common filter approaches (Becker et al. in J Geodyn 59(60):99-110, 2012, doi:10.1016/j.jog.2011.07.0069; Becker in Konsistente Kombination von Schwerefeld, Altimetrie und hydrographischen Daten zur Modellierung der dynamischen Ozeantopographie, 2012, http://nbn-resolving.de/nbn:de:hbz:5n-29199). Within this combination method, the full spectral range of the observations is considered. Further, it allows the direct determination of the normal equations (i.e., the inverse of the error covariance matrix) of the mean dynamic topography on arbitrary grids, which is one of the requirements for ocean data assimilation. In this paper, we report progress through selection and improved processing of altimetric data sets. We focus on the preprocessing steps of along-track altimetry data from Jason-1 and Envisat to obtain a mean sea surface profile. During this procedure, a rigorous variance propagation is accomplished, so that, for the first time, the full covariance matrix of the mean sea surface is available. The combination of the mean profile and a combined GRACE/GOCE gravity field model yields a mean dynamic topography model for the North Atlantic Ocean that is characterized by a defined set of assumptions. We show that including the geodetically derived mean dynamic topography with the full error structure in a 3D stationary inverse ocean model improves modeled oceanographic features over previous estimates.

Fission track analyses of ODP Hole 129-800A samples

Four models of fission track annealing in apatite are compared with measured fission track lengths in samples from Site 800 in the East Mariana Basin, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 129, given an independently determined temperature history. The temperature history of Site 800 was calculated using a one-dimensional, compactive, conductive heat flow model assuming two end-member thermal cases: one for cooling of Jurassic ocean crust that has experienced no subsequent heating, and one for cooling of Cretaceous ocean crust. Because the samples analyzed were only shallowly buried and because the tectonic history of the area since sample deposition is simple, resolution of the temperature history is high. The maximum temperature experienced by the sampled bed is between 16°-21°C and occurs at 96 Ma; temperatures since the Cretaceous have dropped in spite of continued pelagic sediment deposition because heat flow has continued to decay exponentially and bottom-water temperatures have dropped. Fission tracks observed within apatite grains from the sampled bed are 14.6 +/- 0.1 µm (1 sigma) long. Given the proposed temperature history of the samples, one unpublished and three published models of fission track annealing predict mean track lengths from 14.8 to 15.9 µm. These models require temperatures as much as 40°C higher than the calculated paleotemperature maximum of the sampled bed to produce the same degree of track annealing. Measured and predicted values are different because annealing models are based on extrapolation of high temperature laboratory data to geologic times. The model that makes the closest prediction is based on the greatest number of experiments performed at low temperature and on an apatite having composition closest to that of the core samples.

Turbidite recognition and radiocarbon ages of marine sediment cores along the continental margin of Chile

Much progress has been made in estimating recurrence intervals of great and giant subduction earthquakes using terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine paleoseismic archives. Recent detailed records suggest these earthquakes may have variable recurrence periods and magnitudes forming supercycles. Understanding seismic supercycles requires long paleoseismic archives that record timing and magnitude of such events. Turbidite paleoseismic archives may potentially extend past earthquake records to the Pleistocene and can thus complement commonly shorter-term terrestrial archives. However, in order to unambiguously establish recurring seismicity as a trigger mechanism for turbidity currents, synchronous deposition of turbidites in widely spaced, isolated depocenters has to be ascertained. Furthermore, characteristics that predispose a seismically active continental margin to turbidite paleoseismology and the correct sample site selection have to be taken into account. Here we analyze 8 marine sediment cores along 950 km of the Chile margin to test for the feasibility of compiling detailed and continuous paleoseismic records based on turbidites. Our results suggest that the deposition of areally widespread, synchronous turbidites triggered by seismicity is largely controlled by sediment supply and, hence, the climatic and geomorphic conditions of the adjacent subaerial setting. The feasibility of compiling a turbidite paleoseismic record depends on the delicate balance between sufficient sediment supply providing material to fail frequently during seismic shaking and sufficiently low sedimentation rates to allow for coeval accumulation of planktonic foraminifera for high-resolution radiocarbon dating. We conclude that offshore northern central Chile (29-32.5°S) Holocene turbidite paleoseismology is not feasible, because sediment supply from the semi-arid mainland is low and almost no Holocene turbidity-current deposits are found in the cores. In contrast, in the humid region between 36 and 38°S frequent Holocene turbidite deposition may generally correspond to paleoseismic events. However, high terrigenous sedimentation rates prevent high-resolution radiocarbon dating. The climatic transition region between 32.5 and 36°S appears to be best suited for turbidite paleoseismology.

Paleoceanography of sediment cores SO202-27-6 during MIS 3

The modern subarctic Pacific is characterized by a steep salinity-driven surface water stratification, which hampers the supply of saline and nutrient-rich deeper waters into the euphotic zone, limiting productivity. However, the strength of the halocline might have varied in the past. Here, we present diatom oxygen (d18Odiat) and silicon (d30Sidiat) stable isotope data from the open subarctic North-East (NE) Pacific (SO202-27-6; Gulf of Alaska), in combination with other proxy data (Neogloboquadrina pachydermasin d18O, biogenic opal, Ca and Fe intensities, IRD), to evaluate changes in surface water hydrography and productivity during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, characterized by millennial-scale temperature changes (Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles) documented in Greenland ice cores.