EPANET Input Files of New York tunnels and Pacific City used in a metamodel-based optimization study

Metamodels have proven be very useful when it comes to reducing the computational requirements of Evolutionary Algorithm-based optimization by acting as quick-solving surrogates for slow-solving fitness functions. The relationship between metamodel scope and objective function varies between applications, that is, in some cases the metamodel acts as a surrogate for the whole fitness function, whereas in other cases it replaces only a component of the fitness function. This paper presents a formalized qualitative process to evaluate a fitness function to determine the most suitable metamodel scope so as to increase the likelihood of calibrating a high-fidelity metamodel and hence obtain good optimization results in a reasonable amount of time. The process is applied to the risk-based optimization of water distribution systems; a very computationally-intensive problem for real-world systems. The process is validated with a simple case study (modified New York Tunnels) and the power of metamodelling is demonstrated on a real-world case study (Pacific City) with a computational speed-up of several orders of magnitude.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Soil characteristics and abundance of archaea in samples from the Ross Sea Region, Antarctica

The objective of this study was to examine the presence and diversity of Archaea within mineral and ornithogenic soils from 12 locations across the Ross Sea region. Archaea were not abundant but DNA sufficient for producing 16S rRNA gene clone libraries was extracted from 18 of 51 soil samples, from four locations. A total of 1452 clones were analysed by restriction fragment length polymorphism and assigned to 43 operational taxonomic units from which representatives were sequenced. Archaea were primarily restricted to coastal mineral soils which showed a predominance of Crenarchaeota belonging to group 1.1b (>99% of clones). These clones were assigned to six clusters (A through F), based on shared identity to sequences in the GenBank database. Ordination indicated that soil chemistry and water content determined archaeal community structure. This is the first comprehensive study of the archaeal community in Antarctic soils and as such provides a reference point for further investigation of microbial function in this environment.

Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Shifts in the microbial community structure in different temperatures during sample storage from IODP Hole 325-M0058A

The objective of this study was to determine shifts in the microbial community structure and potential function based on standard Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) storage procedures for sediment cores. Standard long-term storage protocols maintain sediment temperature at 4°C for mineralogy, geochemical, and/or geotechnical analysis whereas standard microbiological sampling immediately preserves sediments at -80°C. Storage at 4°C does not take into account populations may remain active over geologic time scales at temperatures similar to storage conditions. Identification of active populations within the stored core would suggest geochemical and geophysical conditions within the core change over time. To test this potential, the metabolically active fraction of the total microbial community was characterized from IODP Expedition 325 Great Barrier Reef sediment cores prior to and following a 3-month storage period. Total RNA was extracted from complementary 2, 20, and 40 m below sea floor sediment samples, reverse transcribed to complementary DNA and then sequenced using 454 FLX sequencing technology, yielding over 14,800 sequences from the six samples. Interestingly, 97.3% of the sequences detected were associated with lineages that changed in detection frequency during the storage period including key biogeochemically relevant lineages associated with nitrogen, iron, and sulfur cycling. These lineages have the potential to permanently alter the physical and chemical characteristics of the sediment promoting misleading conclusions about the in situ biogeochemical environment. In addition, the detection of new lineages after storage increases the potential for a wider range of viable lineages within the subsurface that may be underestimated during standard community characterizations.

Environmental context of selected samples from the Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013)

The present data set provides contextual environmental data for samples from the Tara Oceans Expedition (2009-2013) that were selected for publication in a special issue of the SCIENCE journal (see related references below). The data set provides calculated averages of mesaurements made at the sampling location and depth, calculated averages from climatologies (AMODIS, VGPM) and satellite products.

Debris flow magnitudes: a global catalog

The episodic occurrence of debris flow events in response to stochastic precipitation and wildfire events makes hazard prediction challenging. Previous work has shown that frequency-magnitude distributions of non-fire-related debris flows follow a power law, but less is known about the distribution of post-fire debris flows. As a first step in parameterizing hazard models, we use frequency-magnitude distributions and cumulative distribution functions to compare volumes of post-fire debris flows to non-fire-related debris flows. Due to the large number of events required to parameterize frequency-magnitude distributions, and the relatively small number of post-fire event magnitudes recorded in the literature, we collected data on 73 recent post-fire events in the field. The resulting catalog of 988 debris flow events is presented as an appendix to this article. We found that the empirical cumulative distribution function of post-fire debris flow volumes is composed of smaller events than that of non-fire-related debris flows. In addition, the slope of the frequency-magnitude distribution of post-fire debris flows is steeper than that of non-fire-related debris flows, evidence that differences in the post-fire environment tend to produce a higher proportion of small events. We propose two possible explanations: 1) post-fire events occur on shorter return intervals than debris flows in similar basins that do not experience fire, causing their distribution to shift toward smaller events due to limitations in sediment supply, or 2) fire causes changes in resisting and driving forces on a package of sediment, such that a smaller perturbation of the system is required in order for a debris flow to occur, resulting in smaller event volumes.

Registry of samples and environmental context from the Ocean Sampling Day 2014

The Ocean Sampling Day (OSD) is a simultaneous sampling campaign of the world's oceans which took place (for the first time) on the summer solstice (June 21st) in the year 2014. These cumulative samples, related in time, space and environmental parameters, provide insights into fundamental rules describing microbial diversity and function and contribute to the blue economy through the identification of novel, ocean-derived biotechnologies. We see OSD data as a reference data set for generations of experiments to follow in the coming decade. The present data set includes a description of each sample collected during the Ocean Sampling Day 2014 and provides contextual environmental data measured concurrently with the collection of water samples for genomic analyses.