Model results of the impact of climate change on agriculture in China

This paper assesses the impact of climate change on China's agricultural production at a cross-provincial level using the Ricardian approach, incorporating a multilevel model with farm-level group data. The farm-level group data includes 13379 farm households, across 316 villages, distributed in 31 provinces. The empirical results show that, firstly, the marginal effects and elasticities of net crop revenue per hectare with respect to climate factors indicated that the annual impact of temperature on net crop revenue per hectare was positive, and the effect of increased precipitation was negative when looking at the national totals; secondly, the total impact of simulated climate change scenarios on net crop revenues per hectare at a Chinese national total level, was an increase of between 79 USD per hectare and 207 USD per hectare for the 2050s, and an increase from 140 USD per hectare to 355 USD per hectare for the 2080s. As a result, climate change may create a potential advantage for the development of Chinese agriculture, rather than a risk, especially for agriculture in the provinces of the Northeast, Northwest and North regions. However, the increased precipitation can lead to a loss of net crop revenue per hectare, especially for the provinces of the Southwest, Northwest, North and Northeast regions.

(Table 2) Mineralogy, stable isotopes, and mineral percentages of the carbonate fraction of samples from the South China Sea

Chemoherm carbonates, as well as numerous other types of methane seep carbonates, were discovered in 2004 along the passive margin of the northern South China Sea. Lithologically, the carbonates are micritic containing peloids, clasts and clam fragments. Some are highly brecciated with aragonite layers of varying thicknesses lining fractures and voids. Dissolution and replacement is common. Mineralogically, the carbonates are dominated by high magnesium calcites (HMC) and aragonite. Some HMCs with MgCO3 contents of between 30-38 mol%-extreme-HMC, occur in association with minor amounts of dolomite. All of the carbonates are strongly depleted in d13C, with a range from -35.7 to -57.5 per mil PDB and enriched in d18O (+ 4.0 to + 5.3 per mil PDB). Abundant microbial rods and filaments were recognized within the carbonate matrix as well as aragonite cements, likely fossils of chemosynthetic microbes involved in carbonate formation. The microbial structures are intimately associated with mineral grains. Some carbonate mineral grains resemble microbes. The isotope characteristics, the fabrics, the microbial structure, and the mineralogies are diagnostic of carbonates derived from anaerobic oxidation of methane mediated by microbes. From the succession of HMCs, extreme-HMC, and dolomite in layered tubular carbonates, combined with the presence of microbial structure and diagenetic fabric, we suggest that extreme-HMC may eventually transform into dolomites. Our results add to the worldwide record of seep carbonates and establish for the first time the exact locations and seafloor morphology where such carbonates formed in the South China Sea. Characteristics of the complex fabric demonstrate how seep carbonates may be used as archives recording multiple fluid regimes, dissolution, and early transformation events.

Isotopic geochemistry of granitoids in the Jinshajiang suture zone, SW China

The Jinshajiang suture zone, located in the eastern part of the Tethyan tectonic domain, is noticeable for a large-scale distribution of Late Jurassic to Triassic granitoids. These granitoids were genetically related to the evolution of the Paleo-Tethys Ocean. The Beiwu, Linong and Lunong granitoids occur in the middle zone of the Jinshajiang Suture Zone, and possess similar geochemical features, indicating they share a common magma source. SIMS zircon U-Pb dating reveals the Beiwu, Linong and Lunong granitic intrusions were emplaced at 233.9±1.4 Ma (2 sigma), 233.1 ±1.4 Ma (2 sigma) and 231.0±1.6 Ma (2 sigma), respectively. All of these granitoids are enriched in abundances of Si (SiO2 =65.2-73.5 wt.%), and large-ion-lithophile-elements (LILEs), but depleted in high-field-strength-elements contents (HFSEs, e.g., Nb, Ta, Ti). In addition, they have low P2O5 contents (0.06-0.11 wt.%), A/CNK values ([molecular Al2O3/(CaO+Na2O+K2O)], mostly<1.1) and 10000Ga/Al ratios (1.7-2.2), consistent with the characteristics of I-type granites. In terms of isotopic compositions, these granitoids have high initial 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7078-0.7148), Pb isotopic compositions [(206Pb/204Pb)t=18.213-18.598, (207Pb/204Pb)t=15.637-15.730 and (208Pb/204Pb)t=38.323-38.791], zircon d18O values (7. per mil-9.3 per mil) and negative eNd(t) values (-5.1 to -6.7), suggesting they were predominantly derived from the continental crust. Their Nb/Ta ratios (average value=8.6) are consistent with those of the lower continental crust (LCC). However, variable ?Hf(t) values (-8.6 to +2.8) and the occurrences of mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs) suggest that mantle-derived melts and lower crustal magmas were involved in the generation of these granitoids. Moreover, the high Pb isotopic ratios and elevated zircon d18O values of these rocks indicate a significant contribution of the upper crustal composition. We propose a model in which the Beiwu, Linong and Lunong granitoids were generated under a late collisional or post-collisional setting. It is possible that this collision was completed before Late Triassic. Decompression induced mantle-derived magmas underplated and provided the heat for the anatexis of the crust. Hybrid melts including mantle-derived and the lower crustal magmas were then generated. The hybrid melts thereafter ascended to a shallow depth and resulted in some degree of sedimentary rocks assimilation. Such three-component mixing magmas source and subsequent fractional crystallization could be responsible for the formation of the Beiwu, Linong and Lunong granitoids.

Late Miocene palaeoflora and palaeoclimate of Lincang (China)

The Miocene Lincang leaf assemblage is used in this paper as proxy data to reconstruct the palaeoclimate of southwestern Yunnan (SW China) and the evolution of monsoon intensity. Three quantitative methods were chosen for this reconstruction, i.e. Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA), Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP), and the Coexistence Approach (CA). These methods, however, yield inconsistent results, particularly for the precipitation, as also shown in European and other East Asian Cenozoic floras. The wide range of the reconstructed climatic parameters includes the Mean Annual Temperature (MAT) of 18.5-24.7 °C and the Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) of 1213-3711 mm. Compared with the modern Lincang climate (MAT, 17.3 °C; MAP, 1178.7 mm), the Miocene climate is slightly warmer, wetter and has a higher temperature seasonality. A detailed comparison on the palaeoclimatic variables with the coeval Late Miocene Xiaolongtan flora from the eastern part of Yunnan allows us to investigate the development and interactions of both South Asian and East Asian monsoons during the Late Miocene in southwest China, now under strong influence of these monsoon systems. Our results suggest that the monsoon climate has already been established in southwest Yunnan during the Late Miocene. Furthermore, our results support that both Southeast Asian and East Asian monsoons co-occurred in Yunnan during the Late Miocene.

Neogene floras and palaeoclimatic estimates from various sites of South-West China

Neogene climates and vegetation history of western Yunnan are reconstructed on the basis of known fossil plants using the Coexistence Approach (CA) and Leaf Margin Analysis (LMA). Four Neogene leaf floras from Tengchong, Jianchuan and Eryuan in southwestern China are analyzed by the CA, and the paleoclimatic data of one Miocene carpoflora from Longling and three Pliocene palynofloras from Longling, Yangyi and Eryuan are used for comparison. The Miocene vegetation of the whole of West Yunnan is subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest, and a similar mean annual precipitation is inferred for Tengchong, Longling and Jianchuan. However, by the Late Pliocene a large difference in vegetation occurred between the two slopes of Gaoligong Mountain, western Yunnan. The region of Tengchong retained a subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest vegetation, whereas in Yangyi and Eryuan a vertical vegetation zonation had developed, which consists, in ascending order, of humid evergreen broad-leaved, needle and broad-leaved mixed evergreen, and coniferous forests. Distinctively, the Late Pliocene vegetational patterns of West Yunnan were already very similar to those of the present, and the Pliocene mean annual precipitation in Tengchong was markedly higher than that of Yangyi and Eryuan. Considering that the overall vegetation of West Yunnan and the precipitation at Yangyi and Eryuan have undergone no distinct change since the Late Pliocene, we conclude that the Hengduan Mountains on the northern boundary of West Yunnan must have arisen after the Miocene and approached their highest elevation before the Late Pliocene. Furthermore, the fact of the eastern portion of the Tibetan Plateau underwent a slight uplift after the Late Pliocene is also supported.

Geochemistry and mineralogy of coal samples from Dingji Mine, Huainan Coalfield, China

To investigate the geochemistry of trace elements in coals from the Dingji Mine of the Huainan Coalfield, Anhui province, China, 416 borehole samples of coal, one parting, two floor and two roof mudstones were collected from 9 minable coal seams in 24 boreholes drilled during exploration. The abundances of 47 elements in each sample were determined by various instruments. The boron concentration in the coals suggests that marine influence decreased from coal seam 1 to 13-1. The geometric means of the elements Sn, Bi, Sb, and B are higher than the average for the corresponding elements in the coals from China, the U.S., and world. The enrichment of certain elements in the Shanxi or Upper Shihezi Formations is related to their depositional environment. The roof, floor and parting samples have higher contents of some elements than coal seams. The mineral matters in the coals from the Dingji Mine were found to consist mainly of granular quartz, clay minerals, and carbonate minerals. The elements are classified into two groups based on their stratigraphic distribution from coal seam 1 to 13-1, and the characteristics of each group are discussed. Based on the correlation coefficients of elemental concentrations with ash yield, four groups of elements with different affinities were identified.