Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Accumulation rates for western Dronning Maud Land from firn cores and snow pits

As a result of intensive field activities carried out by several nations over the past 15 years, a set of accumulation measurements for western Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, was collected, based on firn-core drilling and snow-pit sampling. This new information was supplemented by earlier data taken from the literature, resulting in 111 accumulation values. Using Geographical Information Systems software, a first region-wide mean annual snow-accumulation field was derived. In order to define suitable interpolation criteria, the accumulation records were analyzed with respect to their spatial autocorrelation and statistical properties. The resulting accumulation pattern resembles well known characteristics such as a relatively wet coastal area with a sharp transition to the dry interior, but also reveals complex topographic effects. Furthermore, this work identifies new high-return shallow drilling sites by uncovering areas of insufficient sampling density.

Meteorological measurements from the Fourcade and Polar Club Glacier, Warszawa Icefield, King George Island, West Antarctica

The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the AP which is among the fastest warming regions on Earth. The islands are especially vulnerable to climate change due to their exposure to transient low-pressure systems and their maritime climate. Surface air temperature increases (2.5K in 50 years) are concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. We have compiled a unique meteorological data set for the King George Island (KGI)/Isla 25 de Mayo, the largest of the South Shetland Islands. It comprises high-temporal resolution and spatially distributed observations of surface air temperature, wind directions and wind velocities, as well as glacier ice temperatures in profile with a fully equipped automatic weather station on the Warszawa Icefield, from November 2010 and ongoing. In combination with two long-term synoptic datasets (40 and 10 years, respectively) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we have looked at changes in the climatological drivers of the glacial melt processes, and the sensitivity of the inland ice cap with regard to winter melting periods and pressure anomalies. The analysis has revealed, a positive trend of 5K over four decades in minimum surface air temperatures for winter months, clearly exceeding the published annual mean statistics, associated to a decrease in mean monthly winter sea level pressure. This concurs with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which gives a measure for the strength and extension of the Antarctic vortex. We connect this trend with a higher frequency of low-pressure systems hitting the South Shetland Islands during austral winter, bringing warm and moist air masses from lower latitudes. Due to its exposure to the impact of transient synoptic weather systems, the ice cap of KGI is especially vulnerable to changes during winter glacial mass accumulation period. A revision of seasonal changes in adiabatic air temperature lapse rates and their dependency on exposure and elevation has shown a clear decoupling of atmospheric surface layers between coastal areas and the higher-elevation ice cap, showing the higher sensitivity to free atmospheric flow and synoptic changes. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0K/100 m), and a distinct spatial variability reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The observed advective conditions bringing warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, lead to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. This paper assesses the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and climatic changes on the atmospheric surface layer and glacier mass accumulation of the upper ice cap during winter season for the Warszawa Icefield on KGI.