Robust trends of landscape dynamics in the Arctic Lena Delta with temporally dense Landsat time-series stacks, with links to GeoTIFFs

Arctic permafrost landscapes are among the most vulnerable and dynamic landscapes globally, but due to their extent and remoteness most of the landscape changes remain unnoticed. In order to detect disturbances in these areas we developed an automated processing chain for the calculation and analysis of robust trends of key land surface indicators based on the full record of available Landsat TM, ETM +, and OLI data. The methodology was applied to the ~ 29,000 km**2 Lena Delta in Northeast Siberia, where robust trend parameters (slope, confidence intervals of the slope, and intercept) were calculated for Tasseled Cap Greenness, Wetness and Brightness, NDVI, and NDWI, and NDMI based on 204 Landsat scenes for the observation period between 1999 and 2014. The resulting datasets revealed regional greening trends within the Lena Delta with several localized hot-spots of change, particularly in the vicinity of the main river channels. With a 30-m spatial resolution various permafrost-thaw related processes and disturbances, such as thermokarst lake expansion and drainage, fluvial erosion, and coastal changes were detected within the Lena Delta region, many of which have not been noticed or described before. Such hotspots of permafrost change exhibit significantly different trend parameters compared to non-disturbed areas. The processed dataset, which is made freely available through the data archive PANGAEA, will be a useful resource for further process specific analysis by researchers and land managers. With the high level of automation and the use of the freely available Landsat archive data, the workflow is scalable and transferrable to other regions, which should enable the comparison of land surface changes in different permafrost affected regions and help to understand and quantify permafrost landscape dynamics.

Palynology and radiocarbon dating on sediment profile PG1756 from Lake Billyakh, NE Siberia, Russia

In this study a radiocarbon-dated pollen record from Lake Billyakh (65°17'N, 126°47'E; 340 m a.s.l.) in the Verkhoyansk Mountains was used to reconstruct vegetation and climate change since about 15 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. yr). The pollen record and pollen-based biome reconstruction suggest that open cool steppe and grass and sedge tundra communities with Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Caryophyllaceae and Selaginella rupestris dominated the area from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. On the other hand, the constant presence of Larix pollen in quantities comparable to today's values points to the constant presence of boreal deciduous conifer trees in the regional vegetation during the last glaciation. A major spread of shrub tundra communities, including birch (Betula sect. Nanae), alder (Duschekia fruticosa) and willow (Salix) species, is dated to 13.5-12.7 kyr BP, indicating a noticeable increase in precipitation toward the end of the last glaciation, particularly during the Allerød Interstadial. Between 12.7 and 11.4 kyr BP pollen percentages of herbaceous taxa rapidly increased, whereas shrub taxa percentages decreased, suggesting strengthening of the steppe communities associated with the relatively cold and dry Younger Dryas Stadial. However, the pollen data in hand indicate that Younger Dryas climate was less severe than the climate during the earlier interval from 15 to 13.5 kyr BP. The onset of the Holocene is marked in the pollen record by the highest values of shrub and lowest values of herbaceous taxa, suggesting a return of warmer and wetter conditions after 11.4 kyr BP. Percentages of tree taxa increase gradually and reach maximum values after 7 kyr BP, reflecting the spread of boreal cold deciduous and taiga forests in the region. An interval between 7 and 2 kyr BP is noticeable for the highest percentages of Scots spine (Pinus subgen. Diploxylon), spruce (Picea) and fir (Abies) pollen, indicating mid-Holocene spread of boreal forest communities in response to climate amelioration and degradation of the permafrost layer.

Pollen record and age determinations on four sites from Taymyr Peninsula, Russia

Pollen data from a Levinson-Lessing Lake sediment core (74°28'N, 98°38'E) and Cape Sabler, Taymyr Lake permafrost sequences (74°33'N, 100°32'E) reveal substantial environmental changes on the northern Taymyr Peninsula during the last c. 32 000 14C years. The continuous records confirm that a scarce steppe-like vegetation with Poaceae, Artemisia and Cyperaceae dominated c. 32 000-10 300 14C yr BP, while tundra-like vegetation with Oxyria, Ranunculaceae and Caryophyllaceae grew in wetter areas. The coldest interval occurred c. 18 000 yr BP. Lateglacial pollen data show several warming events followed by a climate deterioration c. 10 500 14C yr BP, which may correspond with the Younger Dryas. The Late Pleistocene/Holocene transition, c. 10 300-10 000 14C yr BP, is characterized by a change from the herb-dominated vegetation to shrubby tundra with Betula sect. Nanae and Salix. Alnus fruticosa arrived locally c. 9000-8500 14C yr BP and disappeared c. 4000-3500 14C yr BP. Communities of Betula sect. Nanae, broadly distributed at c. 10 000-3500 14C yr BP, almost disappeared when vegetation became similar to the modern herb tundra after 3500-3000 14C yr BP. Quantitative climate reconstructions show Last Glacial Maximum summer temperature about 4°C below the present and Preboreal (c. 10 000 14C yr BP) temperature 2-4°C above the present. Maximum summer temperature occurred between 10 000 and 5500 14C yr BP; later summers were similar to present or slightly warmer.

(Table 1) Luminescence age determination of sediments from the Arkhangelsk area

The Arkhangelsk area lies in the region that was reached by the northeastern flank of the Scandinavian ice sheet during the last glaciation. Investigations of Late Pleistocene sediments show interglacial terrestrial and marine conditions with sea level up to 52 m above the present level. An unconformity in the stratigraphy suggests a hiatus representing the Early Valdaian (Weichselian) and the beginning of the Middle Valdaian. This unconformity could be related to a low base level and isostatic depression of the area north of Arkhangelsk, either caused by ice masses advancing from the Kara and Barents ice sheets and/or to Scandinavian ice over the Kola Peninsula. During Middle Valdaian, from c. 66 ka BP, until the advance of the Late Valdaian glacier, c. 17-16 ka BP, peat formation, and northward fluvial sedimentation occurred coexisting with permafrost conditions in a later phase. Before the glacier advance, the base level rose and thick vertical accumulations of fluvial sediments were formed. Associated with this glacier advance from the north-northwest, ice damming occurred. Fluvial drainage was opposite to the present drainage pattern and deposition appeared in glaciolacustrine ponds in the area outside the limit of the glaciation. After the deglaciation that started c. 15 ka BP, permafrost conditions and downwasting of buried stagnant glacier ice prevailed until at least 10.7 ka BP.