84 resultados para Numerical surface modeling
Resumo:
We have developed a statistical gap-filling method adapted to the specific coverage and properties of observed fugacity of surface ocean CO2 (fCO2). We have used this method to interpolate the Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas (SOCAT) v2 database on a 2.5°×2.5° global grid (south of 70°N) for 1985-2011 at monthly resolution. The method combines a spatial interpolation based on a 'radius of influence' to determine nearby similar fCO2 values with temporal harmonic and cubic spline curve-fitting, and also fits long term trends and seasonal cycles. Interannual variability is established using deviations of observations from the fitted trends and seasonal cycles. An uncertainty is computed for all interpolated values based on the spatial and temporal range of the interpolation. Tests of the method using model data show that it performs as well as or better than previous regional interpolation methods, but in addition it provides a near-global and interannual coverage.
Resumo:
This study focuses on the temperature field observed in boreholes drilled as part of interdisciplinary scientific campaign targeting the El'gygytgyn Crater Lake in NE Russia. Temperature data are available from two sites: the lake borehole 5011-1 located near the center of the lake reaching 400 m depth, and the land borehole 5011-3 at the rim of the lake, with a depth of 140 m. Constraints on permafrost depth and past climate changes are derived from numerical simulation of the thermal regime associated with the lake-related talik structure. The thermal properties of the subsurface needed for these simulations are based on laboratory measurements of representative cores from the quaternary sediments and the underlying impact-affected rock, complemented by further information from geophysical logs and data from published literature. The temperature observations in the lake borehole 5011-1 are dominated by thermal perturbations related to the drilling process, and thus only give reliable values for the lowermost value in the borehole. Undisturbed temperature data recorded over more than two years are available in the 140 m deep land-based borehole 5011-3. The analysis of these observations allows determination of not only the recent mean annual ground surface temperature, but also the ground surface temperature history, though with large uncertainties. Although the depth of this borehole is by far too insufficient for a complete reconstruction of past temperatures back to the Last Glacial Maximum, it still affects the thermal regime, and thus permafrost depth. This effect is constrained by numerical modeling: assuming that the lake borehole observations are hardly influenced by the past changes in surface air temperature, an estimate of steady-state conditions is possible, leading to a meaningful value of 14 ± 5 K for the post-glacial warming. The strong curvature of the temperature data in shallower depths around 60 m can be explained by a comparatively large amplitude of the Little Ice Age (up to 4 K), with low temperatures prevailing far into the 20th century. Other mechanisms, like varying porosity, may also have an influence on the temperature profile, however, our modeling studies imply a major contribution from recent climate changes.
Resumo:
In the framework of the global energy balance, the radiative energy exchanges between Sun, Earth and space are now accurately quantified from new satellite missions. Much less is known about the magnitude of the energy flows within the climate system and at the Earth surface, which cannot be directly measured by satellites. In addition to satellite observations, here we make extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the global energy balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combine these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for the 5th IPCC assessment report to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean downward surface solar and thermal radiation values near 185 and 342 Wm**-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations. Combined with an estimated surface absorbed solar radiation and thermal emission of 161 Wm**-2 and 397 Wm**-2, respectively, this leaves 106 Wm**-2 of surface net radiation available for distribution amongst the non-radiative surface energy balance components. The climate models overestimate the downward solar and underestimate the downward thermal radiation, thereby simulating nevertheless an adequate global mean surface net radiation by error compensation. This also suggests that, globally, the simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, around 20 and 85 Wm**-2 on average, state realistic values. The findings of this study are compiled into a new global energy balance diagram, which may be able to reconcile currently disputed inconsistencies between energy and water cycle estimates.
Resumo:
The northern Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest changing regions on Earth. The disintegration of the Larsen-A Ice Shelf in 1995 caused tributary glaciers to adjust by speeding up, surface lowering, and overall increased ice-mass discharge. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of these changes at the Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system by analyzing dense time series from various spaceborne and airborne Earth observation missions. Precollapse ice shelf conditions and subsequent adjustments through 2014 were covered. Our results show a response of the glacier system some months after the breakup, reaching maximum surface velocities at the glacier front of up to 8.8 m/d in 1999 and a subsequent decrease to ~1.5 m/d in 2014. Using a dense time series of interferometrically derived TanDEM-X digital elevation models and photogrammetric data, an exponential function was fitted for the decrease in surface elevation. Elevation changes in areas below 1000 m a.s.l. amounted to at least 130±15 m130±15 m between 1995 and 2014, with change rates of ~3.15 m/a between 2003 and 2008. Current change rates (2010-2014) are in the range of 1.7 m/a. Mass imbalances were computed with different scenarios of boundary conditions. The most plausible results amount to -40.7±3.9 Gt-40.7±3.9 Gt. The contribution to sea level rise was estimated to be 18.8±1.8 Gt18.8±1.8 Gt, corresponding to a 0.052±0.005 mm0.052±0.005 mm sea level equivalent, for the period 1995-2014. Our analysis and scenario considerations revealed that major uncertainties still exist due to insufficiently accurate ice-thickness information. The second largest uncertainty in the computations was the glacier surface mass balance, which is still poorly known. Our time series analysis facilitates an improved comparison with GRACE data and as input to modeling of glacio-isostatic uplift in this region. The study contributed to a better understanding of how glacier systems adjust to ice shelf disintegration.
Resumo:
Over 150 million cubic meter of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach sized-sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.
Resumo:
Magnetic susceptibility and ice-rafted debris of surface sediments in the Nordic Seas were investigated to reconstruct source areas and recent transport pathways of magnetic minerals. From the distribution of magnetic susceptibility and ice-rafted debris and published data on petrographic tracers for iceberg drift, we reconstructed a counter-clockwise iceberg drift pattern during cooler phases in the Holocene, which is similar to conceptual and numerical models for Weichselian iceberg drift. The release of basaltic debris at Scoresby Sund played a significant role for the magnetic signature of stadial/interstadial events during isotope stage 3 recorded in sediment cores of the Nordic Seas.
Resumo:
This Special Issue of The Holocene contains 16 research papers based on a symposium at the 11th International Meeting of the European Union of Geosciences held in Strasbourg in April 2001. The aim of the symposium was a state-of-the-art assessment of empirical studies of postglacial marine and terrestrial climatic archives and their integration with numerical climate models. This editorial places the individual papers in the broader context of natural climate variability and anthropogenic impacts on the global climate system, regional differences in climate between maritime and continental areas, and the need for an improved theoretical basis for understanding the underlying causes of environmental change. The focus of the Special Issue is the dynamic and relatively well-understood climate of the North Atlantic and the European realm, where, in relation to the steepest offshore temperature gradient on Earth, observational data are abundant and many recent advances have been made in climate reconstruction from proxy archives. The editorial also contains a summary and overview of the papers included in the four main sections of the Special Issue, which emphasize: (1) numerical modelling experiments; (2) models of glacier buildup and equilibrium-line altitude; (3) marine and terrestrial proxy records of climatic change; and (4) multiproxy palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of a Portuguese lagoonal system.
Resumo:
Inorganic nitrogen depletion restricts productivity in much of the low-latitude oceans, generating a selective advantage for diazotrophic organisms capable of fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (N2). However, the abundance and activity of diazotrophs can in turn be controlled by the availability of other potentially limiting nutrients, including phosphorus (P) and iron (Fe). Here we present high-resolution data (~0.3°) for dissolved iron, aluminum, and inorganic phosphorus that confirm the existence of a sharp north-south biogeochemical boundary in the surface nutrient concentrations of the (sub)tropical Atlantic Ocean. Combining satellite-based precipitation data with results from a previous study, we here demonstrate that wet deposition in the region of the intertropical convergence zone acts as the major dissolved iron source to surface waters. Moreover, corresponding observations of N2 fixation and the distribution of diazotrophic Trichodesmium spp. indicate that movement in the region of elevated dissolved iron as a result of the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone drives a shift in the latitudinal distribution of diazotrophy and corresponding dissolved inorganic phosphorus depletion. These conclusions are consistent with the results of an idealized numerical model of the system. The boundary between the distinct biogeochemical systems of the (sub)tropical Atlantic thus appears to be defined by the diazotrophic response to spatial-temporal variability in external Fe inputs. Consequently, in addition to demonstrating a unique seasonal cycle forced by atmospheric nutrient inputs, we suggest that the underlying biogeochemical mechanisms would likely characterize the response of oligotrophic systems to altered environmental forcing over longer timescales.
Resumo:
High-, i.e. 15-140-yr-resolution climate records from sediment cores 23071, 23074, and PS2644 from the Nordic Seas were used to recon:;truct changes in the surface and deep water circulation during marine isotope stages 1-5.1, i.e. the last 82 000 yr. From this the causal links between the paleoceanographic signals and the Dansgaard-Oeschger events 1-21 revealed in 0180-ice-core records from Greenland were determined. The stratigraphy of the cores is based on the planktic 0180 curves, the minima of which were directly correlated with the GISP2-0180 record, numerous AMS 14C ages, and some ash layers. The planktic d18O and dl3C curves of all three cores reveal numerous meltwater events, the most pronounced of which were assigned to the Heinrich events 1-6. The meltwater events, among other things also accompanied by cold sea surface temperatures and high IRD concentration, correlate with the stadial phases of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and in the western Iceland Sea also to colder periods or abrupt drops in 0180 within a few longer interstadials. Besides being more numerous, the meltwater events also show isotope values lighter in the Iceland Sea than in the central Norwegian Sea, especially if compared to core 23071. This implies a continuous inflow of relative warm Atlantic water into the Norwegian Sea and a cyclonic circulation regime.