Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on alkenones of sediment core M35003-4

Evidence for abrupt climate changes on millennial and shorter timescales is widespread in marine and terrestrial climate records (Dansgard et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/364218a0; Bond et al., 1993, doi:10.1038/365143a0; Charles et al., 1996, doi:10.1016/0012-821X(96)00083-0, Bard et al., 1997, doi:10.1038/385707a0). Rapid reorganization of ocean circulation is considered to exert some control over these changes (Broecker et al., 1985, doi:10.1038/315021a0), as are shifts in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (Broecker, 1994, doi:10.1038/372421a0). The response of the climate system to these two influences is fundamentally different: slowing of thermohaline overturn in the North Atlantic Ocean is expected to decrease northward heat transport by the ocean and to induce warming of the tropical Atlantic (Crowley, 1992, doi:10.1029/92PA01058; Manabe and Stouffer, 1997, doi:10.1029/96PA03932), whereas atmospheric greenhouse forcing should cause roughly synchronous global temperature changes (Manabe et al., 1991, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0785:TROACO>2.0.CO;2). So these two mechanisms of climate change should be distinguishable by the timing of surface-water temperature variations relative to changes in deep-water circulation. Here we present a high-temporal-resolution record of sea surface temperatures from the western tropical North Atlantic Ocean which spans the past 29,000 years, derived from measurements of temperature-sensitive alkenone unsaturation in sedimentary organic matter. We find significant warming is documented for Heinrich event H1 (16,900-15,400 calendar years bp) and the Younger Dryas event (12,900-11,600 cal. yr bp), which were periods of intense cooling in the northern North Atlantic. Temperature changes in the tropical and high-latitude North Atlantic are out of phase, suggesting that the thermohaline circulation was the important trigger for these rapid climate changes.

Dinoflagellate cysts analyses from sediment cores of the Po River discharge plume over the last two centuries

To obtain insight into the natural and/or human-induced changes in the trophic state of the distal portion of the Po River discharge plume over the last two centuries, high temporal resolution dinoflagellate cyst records were established at three sites. Cyst production rates appear to reflect the natural variability in the river's discharge, whereas cyst associations reflect the trophic state of the upper waters, which in turn can be related to agricultural development. The increased abundances of Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Stelladinium stellatum found as early as 1890 and 1920 correspond to the beginning of the industrial revolution in Italy and the first chemical production and dispersion of ammonia throughout Europe. After 1955, the increased abundances of these species and of Polykrikos schwartzii, Brigantedinium spp. and Pentapharsodinium dalei correspond to agriculturally induced alterations of the hypertrophic conditions. A slight improvement in water quality can be observed from 1987 onward.

Stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data of Globigerinoides ruber white, water stable oxygen isotope data, SST and MAT records of sediment core GeoB6211-2

During Termination 1, millennial-scale weakening events of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) supposedly produced major changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of the western South Atlantic, and in mean air temperatures (MATs) over southeastern South America. It has been suggested, for instance, that the Brazil Current (BC) would strengthen (weaken) and the North Brazil Current (NBC) would weaken (strengthen) during slowdown (speed-up) events of the AMOC. This anti-phase pattern was claimed to be a necessary response to the decreased North Atlantic heat piracy during periods of weak AMOC. However, the thermal evolution of the western South Atlantic and the adjacent continent is so far largely unknown. Here we address this issue, presenting high-temporal-resolution SST and MAT records from the BC and southeastern South America, respectively. We identify a warming in the western South Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1), which is followed first by a drop and then by increasing temperatures during the Bølling-Allerød, in phase with an existing SST record from the NBC. Additionally, a similar SST evolution is shown by a southernmost eastern South Atlantic record, suggesting a South Atlantic-wide pattern in SST evolution during most of Termination 1. Over southeastern South America, our MAT record shows a two-step increase during Termination 1, synchronous with atmospheric CO2 rise (i.e., during the second half of HS1 and during the Younger Dryas), and lagging abrupt SST changes by several thousand years. This delay corroborates the notion that the long duration of HS1 was fundamental in driving the Earth out of the last glacial.

Alkenone stable carbon isotopes, planktic foraminfera stable carbon isotopes, alkenone unsaturation indices and calculated sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pCO2 for ODP Site 165-999

Temperature reconstructions indicate that the Pliocene was ~3 °C warmer globally than today, and several recent reconstructions of Pliocene atmospheric CO2 indicate that it was above pre-industrial levels and similar to those likely to be seen this century. However, many of these reconstructions have been of relatively low temporal resolution, meaning that these records may have failed to capture variations associated with the 41 Kyr glacial-interglacial cycles thought to operate in the Pliocene. Here we present a new, high temporal resolution alkenone carbon isotope based record of pCO2 spanning 2.8 to 3.3 million years ago from ODP Site 999. Our record is of high enough resolution (~19 Kyrs) to resolve glacial-interglacial changes beyond the intrinsic uncertainty of the proxy method. The record suggests that Pliocene CO2 levels were relatively stable, exhibiting variation less than 55 ppm. We perform sensitivity studies to investigate the possible effect of changing sea surface temperature, which highlights the importance of accurate and precise SST reconstructions for alkenone palaeobarometry, but demonstrate that these uncertainties do not affect our conclusions of relatively stable pCO2 levels during this interval.

Age models, iron intensity, magnetic susceptibility records and dry bulk density of sediment cores from around the Canary Islands

A set of 43 sediment cores from around the Canary Islands is used to characterise this region, which intersects meridional climatic regimes and zonal productivity gradients in a high spatial resolution. Using rapid and nondestructive core logging techniques we carried out Fe intensity and magnetic susceptibility (MS) measurements and created a stack on the basis of five stratigraphic reference cores, for which a stratigraphic age model was available from d18O and 14C analyses on planktonic foraminifera. By correlation of the stack with the Fe and MS records of the other cores, we were able to develop age depth models at all investigated sites of the region. We present the bulk sediment accumulation rates (AR) of the Canary Islands region as an indicator of shifts in the upwelling-influenced areas for the Holocene (0-12 ky), the deglaciation (12-18 ky) and the last glacial (18-40 ky). General observations are an enhanced productivity during glacial times with highest values during the deglaciation. The main differences between the analysed time intervals we interpret as result of the sea-level effects, changes in the extent of high productivity areas, and current intensity.

Correlation between wet bulk density and carbonate content from IODP Hole 321-U1338A, 321-U1338B and 321-U1338C

Sediment cores collected from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean display a clear positive second-order relationship between wet bulk density (WBD) and carbonate content. This has long interested the paleoceanography community because detailed Gamma Ray Attenuation Porosity Evaluator (GRAPE) measurements, which approximate WBD, might be used to determine records of carbonate content at very high temporal resolution. Although general causes for the relationship are known, they have not been presented and discussed systematically on the basis of first principles. In this study, we measure the mass and carbonate content of 50 sediment samples with known WBD from Site U1338, before and after rinsing with de-ionized water; we also determine the mass related proportion of coarse (> 63 µm) material. Samples exhibit clear relationships between WBD, carbonate content, mass loss upon rinsing, and grain size. We develop a series of mathematical expressions to describe these relationships, and solve them numerically. As noted by previous workers, the second-order relationship between WBD and carbonate content results from the mixing of biogenic carbonate and biogenic silica, which have different grain densities and different porosities. However, at high carbonate content, a wide range in WBD occurs because samples with greater amounts of coarse carbonate have higher porosity. Moreover compaction impacts carbonate particles more than biogenic silica particles. As such, a single two-component equation cannot be used to determine carbonate content accurately across depth intervals where both the porosity and type of carbonate vary. Instead, the WBD-carbonate relationship is described by an infinite series of curves, each which represents mixing of multiple sediment components with different densities and porosities. Dissolved ions also precipitate from pore space during sample drying, which adds mass to the sediment. Without rinsing samples, simple empirical relationships between WBD and carbonate content are further skewed by salt dilution.

(Table 1) Age determination of ODP Leg 166 holes

Thick, late Quaternary sediment sections were recovered at several sites on the leeward slope of Great Bahama Bank during Leg 166 of the Ocean Drilling Program. These sections have paleoceanographic records with potentially high temporal resolution. To make an initial assessment of the records corresponding to the Holocene highstand of sea level, we have identified and dated the sediments from the four upper slope sites (1004, 1005, 1008, and 1009) that were deposited during the period of time which spans the last glaciation through the Holocene. Age identifications are based upon the abundances of the Globorotalia menardii complex of planktonic foraminifera, the stable oxygen isotopic ratios of bulk sediment and the planktonic foraminifera Globogerinoides ruber, and AMS C-14 dating of bulk sediment. Comparison of these data with the sediment lithologic and geoacoustic properties shows that consistent stratigraphic relationships exist at each site: The uppermost interval of aragonite-rich sediments corresponds to the Holocene highstand of sea level (i.e. oxygen isotope stage 1) and these sediments are underlain by a relatively thin interval of aragonite-poor, partially lithified sediments which corresponds to the last glaciation when sea level was significantly lower than today (i.e. oxygen isotope stages 2-4). The Leg 166 upper slope sites possess carbonate accumulation and paleoceanographic proxy records with very high temporal resolution, with Sites 1004, 1008, and 1009 appearing to have the greatest stratigraphic integrity. Comparison of core and high-resolution seismic profile data establishes the Holocene nature of the uppermost seismic unit in the stratigraphic package of the western slope of Great Bahama Bank.

(Data D1) Annual climate proxy data from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland

The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from one year to the next.

The Lena River Delta - Land cover classification of tundra environments based on Landsat 7 ETM+ data and its application for upscaling of methane emissions

The Lena River Delta, situated in Northern Siberia (72.0 - 73.8° N, 122.0 - 129.5° E), is the largest Arctic delta and covers 29,000 km**2. Since natural deltas are characterised by complex geomorphological patterns and various types of ecosystems, high spatial resolution information on the distribution and extent of the delta environments is necessary for a spatial assessment and accurate quantification of biogeochemical processes as drivers for the emission of greenhouse gases from tundra soils. In this study, the first land cover classification for the entire Lena Delta based on Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images was conducted and used for the quantification of methane emissions from the delta ecosystems on the regional scale. The applied supervised minimum distance classification was very effective with the few ancillary data that were available for training site selection. Nine land cover classes of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems in the wetland dominated (72%) Lena Delta could be defined by this classification approach. The mean daily methane emission of the entire Lena Delta was calculated with 10.35 mg CH4/m**2/d. Taking our multi-scale approach into account we find that the methane source strength of certain tundra wetland types is lower than calculated previously on coarser scales.

GPS linked photos of benthic cover transect surveys in Heron Reef

Underwater photo-transect surveys were conducted on September 23-27, 2007 at different sections of the reef flat, reef crest and reef slope in Heron Reef. This survey was done by swimming along pre-defined transect sites and taking a picture of the bottom substrate parallel to the bottom at constant vertical distance (30cm) every two to three metres. A total of 3,586 benthic photos were taken. A floating GPS setup connected to the swimmer/diver by a line enabled recording of coordinates of transect surveys. Approximation of the coordinates for each benthic photo was based on the photo timestamp and GPS coordinate time stamp, using GPS Photo Link Software. Coordinates of each photo were interpolated by finding the the gps coordinates that were logged at a set time before and after the photo was captured. The output of this process was an ArcMap point shapefile, a Google Earth KML file and a thumbnail of each benthic photo taken. The data in the ArcMap shapefile and in the Google Earth KML file consisted of the approximated coordinate of each benthic photo taken during the survey. Using the GPS Photo Link extension within the ArcMap environment, opening the ArcMap shapefile will enable thumbnail to be displayed on the associated benthic cover photo whenever hovering with the mouse over a point on the transect. By downloading the GPSPhotoLink software from the www.geospatialexperts.com, and installing it as a trial version the ArcMap exstension will be installed in the ArcMap environment.

Circumpolar dataset of Soil Organic Carbon north of treeline derived from ENVISAT ASAR GM, link to GeoTIFF

A new approach for the estimation of soil organic carbon (SOC) pools north of the tree line has been developed based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR; ENVISAT Advanced SAR Global Monitoring mode) data. SOC values are directly determined from backscatter values instead of upscaling using land cover or soil classes. The multi-mode capability of SAR allows application across scales. It can be shown that measurements in C band under frozen conditions represent vegetation and surface structure properties which relate to soil properties, specifically SOC. It is estimated that at least 29 Pg C is stored in the upper 30 cm of soils north of the tree line. This is approximately 25 % less than stocks derived from the soil-map-based Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database (NCSCD). The total stored carbon is underestimated since the established empirical relationship is not valid for peatlands or strongly cryoturbated soils. The approach does, however, provide the first spatially consistent account of soil organic carbon across the Arctic. Furthermore, it could be shown that values obtained from 1 km resolution SAR correspond to accounts based on a high spatial resolution (2 m) land cover map over a study area of about 7 × 7 km in NE Siberia. The approach can be also potentially transferred to medium-resolution C-band SAR data such as ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath with ~120 m resolution but it is in general limited to regions without woody vegetation. Global Monitoring-mode-derived SOC increases with unfrozen period length. This indicates the importance of this parameter for modelling of the spatial distribution of soil organic carbon storage.

Dinocyst-derived sea-surface characteristics, palynomorph abundances, ice-rafted debris, and planktonic foraminifera abundances and d18O of the 35-41 ka BP interval of core MD99-2285

The last glacial millennial climatic events (i.e. Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events) constitute outstanding case studies of coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere interactions. Here, we investigate the evolution of sea-surface and subsurface conditions, in terms of temperature, salinity and sea ice cover, at very high-resolution (mean resolution between 55 and 155 years depending on proxies) during the 35-41 ka cal BP interval covering three Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles and including Heinrich event 4, in a new unpublished marine record, i.e. the MD99-2285 core (62.69°N; -3.57s°E). We use a large panel of complementary tools, which notably includes dinocyst-derived sea-ice cover duration quantifications. The high temporal resolution and multiproxy approach of this work allows us to identify the sequence of processes and to assess ocean-cryosphere interactions occurring during these periodic ice-sheet collapse events. Our results evidence a paradoxical hydrological scheme where (i) Greenland interstadials are marked by a homogeneous and cold upper water column, with intensive winter sea ice formation and summer sea ice melting, and (ii) Greenland and Heinrich stadials are characterized by a very warm and low saline surface layer with iceberg calving and reduced sea ice formation, separated by a strong halocline from a less warm and saltier subsurface layer. Our work also suggests that this stadial surface/subsurface warming started before massive iceberg release, in relation with warm Atlantic water advection. These findings thus support the theory that upper ocean warming might have triggered European ice-sheet destabilization. Besides, previous paleoceanographic studies conducted along the Atlantic inflow pathways close to the edge of European ice-sheets suggest that such a feature might have occurred in this whole area. Nonetheless, additional high resolution paleoreconstructions are required to confirm such a regional scheme.

Benthic foraminiferal record from Santa Barbara basin

The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the late Quaternary California margin experienced abrupt and dramatic changes in strength and depth in response to changes in intermediate water ventilation, ocean productivity, and climate at orbital through millennial time scales. Expansion and contraction of the OMZ is exhibited at high temporal resolution (107-126 year) by quantitative benthic foraminiferal assemblage changes in two piston cores forming a vertical profile in Santa Barbara Basin (569 m, basin floor; 481 m, near sill depth) to 34 and 24 ka, respectively. Variation in the OMZ is quantified by new benthic foraminiferal groupings and new dissolved oxygen index based on documented relations between species and water-mass oxygen concentrations. Foraminiferal-based paleoenvironmental assessments are integrated with principal component analysis, bioturbation, grain size, CaCO3, total organic carbon, and d13C to reconstruct basin oxygenation history. Fauna responded similarly between the two sites, although with somewhat different magnitude and taxonomic expression. During cool episodes (Younger Dryas and stadials), the water column was well oxygenated, most strongly near the end of the glacial episode (17-16 ka; Heinrich 1). In contrast, the OMZ was strong during warm episodes (Bølling/Allerød, interstadials, and Pre-Boreal). During the Bølling/Allerød, the OMZ shoaled to <360 m of contemporaneous sea level, its greatest vertical expansion of the last glacial cycle. Assemblages were then dominated by Bolivina tumida, reflecting high concentrations of dissolved methane in bottom waters. Short decadal intervals were so severely oxygen-depleted that no benthic foraminifera were present. The middle to late Holocene (6-0 ka) was less dysoxic than the early Holocene.

Soil organic carbon storage and soil properties for 50 soil profiles in the Lena River Delta including land form description and map

To project the future development of the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in permafrost environments, the spatial and vertical distribution of key soil properties and their landscape controls needs to be understood. This article reports findings from the Arctic Lena River Delta where we sampled 50 soil pedons. These were classified according to the U.S.D.A. Soil Taxonomy and fall mostly into the Gelisol soil order used for permafrost-affected soils. Soil profiles have been sampled for the active layer (mean depth 58±10 cm) and the upper permafrost to one meter depth. We analyze SOC stocks and key soil properties, i.e. C%, N%, C/N, bulk density, visible ice and water content. These are compared for different landscape groupings of pedons according to geomorphology, soil and land cover and for different vertical depth increments. High vertical resolution plots are used to understand soil development. These show that SOC storage can be highly variable with depth. We recommend the treatment of permafrost-affected soils according to subdivisions into: the surface organic layer, mineral subsoil in the active layer, organic enriched cryoturbated or buried horizons and the mineral subsoil in the permafrost. The major geomorphological units of a subregion of the Lena River Delta were mapped with a land form classification using a data-fusion approach of optical satellite imagery and digital elevation data to upscale SOC storage. Landscape mean SOC storage is estimated to 19.2±2.0 kg C/m**2. Our results show that the geomorphological setting explains more soil variability than soil taxonomy classes or vegetation cover. The soils from the oldest, Pleistocene aged, unit of the delta store the highest amount of SOC per m**2 followed by the Holocene river terrace. The Pleistocene terrace affected by thermal-degradation, the recent floodplain and bare alluvial sediments store considerably less SOC in descending order.