880 resultados para NCEP reanalysis
Resumo:
The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the AP which is among the fastest warming regions on Earth. The islands are especially vulnerable to climate change due to their exposure to transient low-pressure systems and their maritime climate. Surface air temperature increases (2.5K in 50 years) are concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. We have compiled a unique meteorological data set for the King George Island (KGI)/Isla 25 de Mayo, the largest of the South Shetland Islands. It comprises high-temporal resolution and spatially distributed observations of surface air temperature, wind directions and wind velocities, as well as glacier ice temperatures in profile with a fully equipped automatic weather station on the Warszawa Icefield, from November 2010 and ongoing. In combination with two long-term synoptic datasets (40 and 10 years, respectively) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we have looked at changes in the climatological drivers of the glacial melt processes, and the sensitivity of the inland ice cap with regard to winter melting periods and pressure anomalies. The analysis has revealed, a positive trend of 5K over four decades in minimum surface air temperatures for winter months, clearly exceeding the published annual mean statistics, associated to a decrease in mean monthly winter sea level pressure. This concurs with a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which gives a measure for the strength and extension of the Antarctic vortex. We connect this trend with a higher frequency of low-pressure systems hitting the South Shetland Islands during austral winter, bringing warm and moist air masses from lower latitudes. Due to its exposure to the impact of transient synoptic weather systems, the ice cap of KGI is especially vulnerable to changes during winter glacial mass accumulation period. A revision of seasonal changes in adiabatic air temperature lapse rates and their dependency on exposure and elevation has shown a clear decoupling of atmospheric surface layers between coastal areas and the higher-elevation ice cap, showing the higher sensitivity to free atmospheric flow and synoptic changes. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0K/100 m), and a distinct spatial variability reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The observed advective conditions bringing warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain, lead to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. This paper assesses the impact of large-scale atmospheric circulation variability and climatic changes on the atmospheric surface layer and glacier mass accumulation of the upper ice cap during winter season for the Warszawa Icefield on KGI.