Stable carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma

Detailed records of the carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma are compared between nine high-latitude sediment cores, from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, covering the last 140000 yrs. The strong analogies between the delta13C records permit to define a delta13C stratigraphic scale, with three clear cut transitions simultaneous with the oxygen isotopic transitions 6/5 (125 kyrs.), 5/4 (65 kyrs.), and 2/1 (13 kyrs.). The delta13C records of N. pachyderma in the high-latitude cores, which follow the changes in delta13C of the surface water TCO2 near areas of deep water formation present trends similar to the benthic foraminifera delta13C records in cores V19-30 and M12-392, although amplitudes of the isotopic shifts are different. This implies that a large part of the observed variations represents global changes in the carbon distribution between biosphere and ocean. The 13C/12C ratios of N. pachyderma in the North Atlantic cores display larger regional variations at 18 kyrs. B.P. than at present. To explain these differences, we have plotted the 18 kyrs. B.P. delta13C values of N. pachyderma from 17 cores distributed N of 40°N. Comparison with published surface water temperature distribution at 18 kyrs. B.P. indicates that a strong divergent cyclonic cell, centered approximatively 55°N and 15°W, was active during most of the last ice-age maximum. This hydrology, analogous to the present Weddell Sea, explains the published evidences of bottom water formation, if located on the northern flank of the gyre, and the strong polar front on the southern flank, probable location of intermediate water formation.

Sea surface temperatures reconstructed from sediment core U1338

This study presents a new alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) record and d18ONoelaerhabdaceae data of the 2-5 µm carbonate fractions from the IODP site U1338 located in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (EEP), over the Miocene-Pliocene. Our data and those available from other sites of the same area show the establishment of a cold tongue during the early Pliocene (4.4 - 3.6 Ma). SST and d18ONoelaerhabdaceae time-series indicate periods of significant salinity variations. Comparison with the d18Obenthic curve from sediment cores of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean allow us to distinguish between global changes and local surface salinity variations in the EEP. Ice sheet growth and evaporation-precipitation are then discussed as possible drivers of such changes, as well as the role of Central American and the Indonesian seaway restriction. Our data suggest a shallowing of the thermocline in the EEP, between 6.8 and 6 Ma, and its shoaling between 4.8 and 4.0 Ma, suggesting the appearance of the cold tongue (Steph et al., 2010). The Pliocene climate transition would therefore not be primarily driven by Northern hemisphere glaciation.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

Global glacier changes

Changes in glaciers and ice caps provide some of the clearest evidence of climate change, and as such they constitute key variables for early detection strategies in global climate-related observations. These changes have impacts on global sea level fluctuations, the regional to local natural hazard situation, as well as on societies dependent on glacier meltwater. Internationally coordinated collection and publication of standardised information about ongoing glacier changes was initiated back in 1894. The compiled data sets on the global distribution and changes in glaciers and ice caps provide the backbone of the numerous scientific publications on the latest findings about surface ice on land. Since the very beginning, the compiled data has been published by the World Glacier Monitoring Service and its predecessor organisations. However, the corresponding data tables, formats and meta-data are mainly of use to specialists.

Chemical analysis with regard to global and local climatic forcing measured on sediment core GeoB3711-1, GeoB3711-3 and GeoB4917-8

Global and local climatic forcing, e.g. concentration of atmospheric CO2 or insolation, influence the distribution of C3 and C4 plants in southwest Africa. C4 plants dominate in more arid and warmer areas and are favoured by lower pCO2 levels. Several studies have assessed past and present continental vegetation by the analysis of terrestrial n-alkanes in near-coastal deep sea sediments using single samples or a small number of samples from a given climatic stage. The objectives of this study were to evaluate vegetation changes in southwest Africa with regard to climatic changes during the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene and to elucidate the potential of single sample simplifications. We analysed two sediment cores at high resolution, altogether ca. 240 samples, from the Southeast Atlantic Ocean (20°S and 12°S) covering the time spans of 18 to 1 ka and 56 to 2 ka, respectively. Our results for 20°S showed marginally decreasing C4 plant domination (of ca. 5%) during deglaciation based on average chain length (ACL27-33 values) and carbon isotopic composition of the C31 and C33 n-alkanes. Values for single samples from 18 ka and the Holocene overlap and, thus, are not significantly representative of the climatic stages they derive from. In contrast, at 12°S the n-alkane parameters show a clear difference of plant type for the Late Pleistocene (C4 plant domination, 66% C4 on average) and the Holocene (C3 plant domination, 40% C4 on average). During deglaciation vegetation change highly correlates with the increase in pCO2 (r² = 0.91). Short-term climatic events such as Heinrich Stadials or Antarctic warming periods are not reflected by vegetation changes in the catchment area. Instead, smaller vegetation fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene occur in accordance with local variations of insolation.

Part of the global seawater delta oxygen-18 database from reference Nikolayev 1976

Data on oxygen isotope composition of waters from the Sea of Azov.

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 results of model data with Community Climate System Model version 3 including the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CCSM3-DGVM) in NetCDF format at global and regional scale

The climate of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, the interglacial roughly 400,000 years ago, is investigated for four time slices, 416, 410, 400, and 394 ka. The overall picture is that MIS 11 was a relatively warm interglacial in comparison to preindustrial, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer temperatures early in MIS 11 (416-410 ka) warmer than preindustrial, though winters were cooler. Later in MIS 11, especially around 400 ka, conditions were cooler in the NH summer, mainly in the high latitudes. Climate changes simulated by the models were mainly driven by insolation changes, with the exception of two local feedbacks that amplify climate changes. Here, the NH high latitudes, where reductions in sea ice cover lead to a winter warming early in MIS 11, as well as the tropics, where monsoon changes lead to stronger climate variations than one would expect on the basis of latitudinal mean insolation change alone, are especially prominent. The results support a northward expansion of trees at the expense of grasses in the high northern latitudes early during MIS 11, especially in northern Asia and North America.

A global compolation of late Holocene planktonic foraminiferal d18O

We review the different sources of uncertainty affecting the oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera and present a global planktonic foraminifera oxygen isotope data set that has been assembled within the MARGO project for the Late Holocene time slice. The data set consists of over 2100 data from recent sediment with thorough age control, that have been checked for internal consistency. We further examine how the oxygen isotopic composition of fossil foraminifera is related to hydrological conditions, based on published results on living foraminifera from plankton tows and cultures. Oxygen isotopic values (delta18O) of MARGO recent fossil foraminifera are 0.2-0.8 per mil higher than those of living foraminifera. Our results show that this discrepancy is related to the stratification of the upper water mass and generally increases at low latitudes. Therefore, as stratification of surface waters and seasonality depends on climatic conditions, the relationship between temperature and delta18O established on fossil foraminifera from recent sediment must be used with caution in paleoceanographic studies. Before models predicting seasonal flux, abundance and delta18O composition of a foraminiferal population in the sediment are available, we recommend studying relative changes in isotopic composition of fossil planktonic foraminifera. These changes primarily record variations in temperature and oxygen isotopic composition of sea water, although part of the changes might reflect modifications of planktonic foraminifera seasonality or depth habitat

Figures and related data of a review of the "Global and Russian energy outlook up to 2040"

The Global and Russian Energy Outlook up to 2040, prepared by the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation, analyses the long-term changes in the main energy markets and thereby identifies the threats to the Russian economy and energy sector. Research has shown that shifts in the global energy sector, especially in hydrocarbon markets (primarily the development of technologies for shale oil and gas extraction), will result in a slowdown of Russia's economy by one percentage point each year on average due to a decrease in energy exports comparison with the official projections. Owing to the lack of development of an institutional framework, an outdated tax system, low competition and low investment efficiency, Russia will be the most sensitive to fluctuations in global hydrocarbon markets among all major energy market players within the forecast period.

Modelled global ocean temperature from 6 ka to present

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Part of the global DOC versus AOU (dissolved organic carbon/apparent oxygen utilization) data compilation, Ross Sea

Dissolved and particulate organic matter was measured during six cruises to the southern Ross Sea. The cruises were conducted during late austral winter to autumn from 1994 to 1997 and included coverage of various stages of the seasonal phytoplankton bloom. The data from the various years are compiled into a representative seasonal cycle in order to assess general patterns of dissolved organic matter (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) dynamics in the southern Ross Sea. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) were at background concentrations of approximately 42 and 3 µM C, respectively, during the late winter conditions in October. As the spring phytoplankton bloom progressed, organic matter increased, and by January DOC and POC reached as high as 30 and 107 µM C, respectively, in excess of initial wintertime conditions. Stocks and concentrations of DOC and POC returned to near background values by autumn (April). Approximately 90% of the accumulated organic matter was partitioned into POM, with modest net accumulation of DOM stocks despite large net organic matter production and the dominance of Phaeocystis antarctica. Changes in NO3 concentration from wintertime values were used to calculate the equivalent biological drawdown of dissolved inorganic carbon (DICequiv). The fraction of DICequiv drawdown resulting in net DOC production was relatively constant (ca. 11%), despite large temporal and spatial variability in DICequiv drawdown. The C : N (molar ratio) of the seasonally produced DOM had a geometric mean of 6.2 and was nitrogen-rich compared to background DOM. The DOM stocks that accumulate in excess of deep refractory background stocks are often referred to as "semi-labile" DOM. The "semi-labile" pool in the Ross Sea turns over on timescales of about 6 months. As a result of the modest net DOM production and its lability, the role DOM plays in export to the deep sea is small in this region.

Response of deep-sea benthic foraminifera to Late Quaternary climate changes, southeast Indian Ocean, offshore Western Australia

The Late Quaternary benthic foraminifera of four deep-sea cores off Western Australia (ODP 122-760A, ODP 122-762B, BMR96GC21 and RC9-150) have been examined for evidence of increased surface productivity to explain the anomalously low sea-surface paleotemperatures inferred by planktic foraminifera for the last and penultimate glaciations. The delta13C trends of Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi, and differences between the delta13C trends of planktics (Globigerinoides sacculifer) and benthics (C. wuellerstorfi) in the four cores indicate that during stage 6 bottom waters were significantly depleted in delta13C, and strong delta13C gradients were established in the water column, while during stage 2 and the Last Glacial Maximum, delta13C trends did not differ greatly from that of the Holocene. Two main assemblages of benthic foraminifera were identified by principal component analyses: one dominated by Uvigerina peregrina, another dominated by U. proboscidea. Abundance of these Uvigerinids, and of taxa preferring an infaunal microhabitat, and of Epistominella exigua and Bulimina aculeata indicate that episodes of high influx of particulate organic matter were established in most sites during glacial episodes, and particularly so during stage 6, while evidence for upwelling during the Last Glacial Maximum is less strong. The Penultimate Glaciation upwellings were established within the areas of low sea-surface paleotemperature indicated by planktic foraminifera. During the Last Interglacial Climax, upwelling appears to have been established in an isolated region offshore from a strengthened Leeuwin Current off North West Cape. Last Glacial Maximum delta13C values of C. wuellerstorfi at waterdepths of less than 2000 m show smaller than global mean glacial-interglacial changes suggesting the development of a deep hydrological front. A similar vertical stratification/bathyal front was also established during the Penultimate Glaciation.

Part of the global DOC versus AOU (dissolved organic carbon/apparent oxygen utilization) data compilation, Arabian Sea

Concentrations of total organic carbon (TOC) were determined on samples collected during six cruises in the northern Arabian Sea during the 1995 US JGOFS Arabian Sea Process Study. Total organic carbon concentrations and integrated stocks in the upper ocean varied both spatially and seasonally. Highest mixed-layer TOC concentrations (80-100 µM C) were observed near the coast when upwelling was not active, while upwelling tended to reduce local concentrations. In the open ocean, highest mixed-layer TOC concentrations (80-95 µM C) developed in winter (period of the NE Monsoon) and remained through mid summer (early to mid-SW Monsoon). Lowest open ocean mixed-layer concentrations (65-75 µM C) occurred late in the summer (late SW Monsoon) and during the Fall Intermonsoon period. The changes in TOC concentrations resulted in seasonal variations in mean TOC stocks (upper 150 m) of 1.5-2 mole C/m**2, with the lowest stocks found late in the summer during the SW Monsoon-Fall Intermonsoon transition. The seasonal accumulation of TOC north of 15°N was 31-41 x 10**12 g C, mostly taking place over the period of the NE Monsoon, and equivalent to 6-8% of annual primary production estimated for that region in the mid-1970s. A net TOC production rate of 12 mmole C/m**2/d over the period of the NE Monsoon represented ~80% of net community production. Net TOC production was nil during the SW Monsoon, so vertical export would have dominated the export terms over that period. Total organic carbon concentrations varied in vertical profiles with the vertical layering of the water masses, with the Persian Gulf Water TOC concentrations showing a clear signal. Deep water (>2000 m) TOC concentrations were uniform across the basin and over the period of the cruises, averaging 42.3±1.4 µM C.

Part of the global DOC versus AOU (dissolved organic carbon/apparent oxygen utilization) data compilation, Pacific Ocean

Total organic carbon (TOC) was analyzed on four transects along 140°W in 1992 using a high temperature combustion/discrete injection (HTC/DI) analyzer. For two of the transects, the analyses were conducted on-board ship. Mixed-layer concentrations of organic carbon varied from about 80 µM C at either end of the transect (12°N and 12°S) to about 60 µM C at the equator. Total organic carbon concentrations decreased rapidly below the mixed-layer to about 38-40 µM C at 1000 m across the transect. Little variation was observed below this depth; deep water concentrations below 2000 m were virtually monotonic at about 36 µM C. Repeat measurements made on subsequent cruises consistently found the same concentrations at 1000 m or deeper, but substantial variations were observed in the mixed-layer and the upper water column above 400 m depth. Linear mixing models of total organic carbon versus sigmaT exhibited zones of organic carbon formation and consumption. TOC was found to be inversely correlated with apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) in the region between the mixed-layer and the oxygen minimum. In the mixed-layer, TOC concentrations varied seasonally. Part of the variations in TOC at the equator was driven by changes in the upwelling rate in response to variations in physical forcing related to an El Niño and to the passage of tropical instability waves. TOC export fluxes, calculated from simple box models, averaged 8±4 mmol C/m**2/day at the equator and also varied seasonally. These export fluxes account for 50-75% of the total carbon deficit and are consistent with other estimates and model predictions.