30 resultados para Uncertainty in governance


Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The geometry of the Tonga Arc implies that it has rotated approximately 17° clockwise away from the Lau Ridge as the Lau Basin formed in between. Questions have arisen about the timing of the opening, whether the arc behaved rigidly, and whether the opening occurred instead from motion of the Lau Ridge, the remanent arc. We undertook to address these questions by taking paleomagnetic samples from sediment cores drilled on the Tonga Arc at Sites 840 and 841, orienting the samples in azimuth, and comparing the paleodeclinations to expected directions. Advanced hydraulic piston corer (APC) cores from Holes 840C and 841A were oriented during drilling with a tool based on a magnetic compass and attached to the core barrel. Samples from Hole 841B were drilled with a rotary core barrel (RCB) and therefore are azimuthally unoriented. They were oriented by identifying faults and dipping beds in the core and aligning them with the same features in the Formation MicroScanner (FMS) wireline logs, which were themselves oriented with a three-axis magnetometer in the FMS tool. The best results came from the APC cores, which yielded a mean pole at -69.0°S, 112.2°E for an age of 4 Ma. This pole implies a declination anomaly of 20.8° ± 12.6° (95% confidence limit), which appears to have occurred by tectonic rotation of the Tonga Arc. This value is almost exactly that expected from the geometry of the arc and implies that it did indeed rotate clockwise as a rigid body. The large uncertainty in azimuth results from core orientation errors, which have an average standard deviation of 18.6°. The youngest cores used to calculate the APC pole contain sediments deposited during Subchron 2A (2.48-3.40 Ma), and their declinations are indistinguishable from the others. This observation suggests that most of the rotation occurred after their deposition; this conclusion must be treated with caution, however, because of the large azimuthal orientation errors. Poles from late and early Miocene sediments of Hole 841B are more difficult to interpret. Samples from this hole are mostly normal in polarity, fail a reversal test, and yield poles that suggest that the normal-polarity directions may be a recent overprint. Late Miocene reversed-polarity samples may be unaffected by this overprint; if so, they imply a declination anomaly of 51.1° ± 11.5°. This observation may indicate that, for older sediments, Tonga forearc rotations are larger than expected.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

We compiled a database of bacterial abundance of 39 766 data points. After gridding with 1° spacing, the database covers 1.3% of the ocean surface. There is data covering all ocean basins and depth except the Southern Hemisphere below 350 m or from April until June. The average bacterial biomass is 3.9 ± 3.6 µg l-1 with a 20-fold decrease between the surface and the deep sea. We estimate a total ocean inventory of about 1.3 - 1029 bacteria. Using an average of published open ocean measurements for the conversion from abundance to carbon biomass of 9.1 fg cell-1, we calculate a bacterial carbon inventory of about 1.2 Pg C. The main source of uncertainty in this inventory is the conversion factor from abundance to biomass.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

A unique macroseismic data set for the strongest earthquakes occurred since 1940 in Vrancea region, is constructed by a thorough review of all available sources. Inconsistencies and errors in the reported data and in their use are analyzed as well. The final data set, free from inconsistencies, including those at the political borders, contains 9822 observations for the strong intermediate-depth earthquakes: 1940, Mw=7.7; 1977, Mw=7.4; 1986, Mw=7.1; 1990, May 30, Mw=6.9 and 1990, May 31, Mw=6.4; 2004, Mw=6.0. This data set is available electronically as supplementary data for the present paper. From the discrete macroseismic data the continuous macroseismic field is generated using the methodology developed by Molchan et al. (2002) that, along with the unconventional smoothing method Modified Polynomial Filtering (MPF), uses the Diffused Boundary (DB) method, which visualizes the uncertainty in the isoseismal's boundaries. The comparison of DBs with previous isoseismals maps represents a good evaluation criterion of the reliability of earlier published maps. The produced isoseismals can be used not only for the formal comparison between observed and theoretical isoseismals, but also for the retrieval of source properties and the assessment of local responses (Molchan et al., 2011).

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

During the past five million yrs, benthic d18O records indicate a large range of climates, from warmer than today during the Pliocene Warm Period to considerably colder during glacials. Antarctic ice cores have revealed Pleistocene glacial-interglacial CO2 variability of 60-100 ppm, while sea level fluctuations of typically 125 m are documented by proxy data. However, in the pre-ice core period, CO2 and sea level proxy data are scarce and there is disagreement between different proxies and different records of the same proxy. This hampers comprehensive understanding of the long-term relations between CO2, sea level and climate. Here, we drive a coupled climate-ice sheet model over the past five million years, inversely forced by a stacked benthic d18O record. We obtain continuous simulations of benthic d18O, sea level and CO2 that are mutually consistent. Our model shows CO2 concentrations of 300 to 470 ppm during the Early Pliocene. Furthermore, we simulate strong CO2 variability during the Pliocene and Early Pleistocene. These features are broadly supported by existing and new d11B-based proxy CO2 data, but less by alkenone-based records. The simulated concentrations and variations therein are larger than expected from global mean temperature changes. Our findings thus suggest a smaller Earth System Sensitivity than previously thought. This is explained by a more restricted role of land ice variability in the Pliocene. The largest uncertainty in our simulation arises from the mass balance formulation of East Antarctica, which governs the variability in sea level, but only modestly affects the modeled CO2 concentrations.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The Southern Westerly Winds (SWW) exert a crucial influence over the world ocean and climate. Nevertheless, a comprehensive understanding of the Holocene temporal and spatial evolution of the SWW remains a significant challenge due to the sparsity of high-resolution marine archives and appropriate SWW proxies. Here, we present a north-south transect of high-resolution planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotope records from the western South Atlantic. Our proxy records reveal Holocene migrations of the Brazil- Malvinas Confluence (BMC), a highly sensitive feature for changes in the position and strength of the northern portion of the SWW. Through the tight coupling of the BMC position to the large-scale wind field, the records allow a quantitative reconstruction of Holocene latitudinal displacements of the SWW across the South Atlantic. Our data reveal a gradual poleward movement of the SWW by about 1-1.5° from the early to the mid-Holocene. Afterwards variability in the SWW is dominated by millennial-scale displacements in the order of 1° in latitude with no recognizable longer-term trend. These findings are confronted with results from a state-of-the-art transient Holocene climate simulation using a comprehensive coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Proxy-inferred and modeled SWW shifts compare qualitatively, but the model underestimates both orbitally forced multi-millennial and internal millennial SWW variability by almost an order of magnitude. The underestimated natural variability implies a substantial uncertainty in model projections of future SWW shifts.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

To deliver sample estimates provided with the necessary probability foundation to permit generalization from the sample data subset to the whole target population being sampled, probability sampling strategies are required to satisfy three necessary not sufficient conditions: (i) All inclusion probabilities be greater than zero in the target population to be sampled. If some sampling units have an inclusion probability of zero, then a map accuracy assessment does not represent the entire target region depicted in the map to be assessed. (ii) The inclusion probabilities must be: (a) knowable for nonsampled units and (b) known for those units selected in the sample: since the inclusion probability determines the weight attached to each sampling unit in the accuracy estimation formulas, if the inclusion probabilities are unknown, so are the estimation weights. This original work presents a novel (to the best of these authors' knowledge, the first) probability sampling protocol for quality assessment and comparison of thematic maps generated from spaceborne/airborne Very High Resolution (VHR) images, where: (I) an original Categorical Variable Pair Similarity Index (CVPSI, proposed in two different formulations) is estimated as a fuzzy degree of match between a reference and a test semantic vocabulary, which may not coincide, and (II) both symbolic pixel-based thematic quality indicators (TQIs) and sub-symbolic object-based spatial quality indicators (SQIs) are estimated with a degree of uncertainty in measurement in compliance with the well-known Quality Assurance Framework for Earth Observation (QA4EO) guidelines. Like a decision-tree, any protocol (guidelines for best practice) comprises a set of rules, equivalent to structural knowledge, and an order of presentation of the rule set, known as procedural knowledge. The combination of these two levels of knowledge makes an original protocol worth more than the sum of its parts. The several degrees of novelty of the proposed probability sampling protocol are highlighted in this paper, at the levels of understanding of both structural and procedural knowledge, in comparison with related multi-disciplinary works selected from the existing literature. In the experimental session the proposed protocol is tested for accuracy validation of preliminary classification maps automatically generated by the Satellite Image Automatic MapperT (SIAMT) software product from two WorldView-2 images and one QuickBird-2 image provided by DigitalGlobe for testing purposes. In these experiments, collected TQIs and SQIs are statistically valid, statistically significant, consistent across maps and in agreement with theoretical expectations, visual (qualitative) evidence and quantitative quality indexes of operativeness (OQIs) claimed for SIAMT by related papers. As a subsidiary conclusion, the statistically consistent and statistically significant accuracy validation of the SIAMT pre-classification maps proposed in this contribution, together with OQIs claimed for SIAMT by related works, make the operational (automatic, accurate, near real-time, robust, scalable) SIAMT software product eligible for opening up new inter-disciplinary research and market opportunities in accordance with the visionary goal of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) initiative and the QA4EO international guidelines.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Homogenized data series of total ozone measurements taken by the regularly and well calibrated Dobson and Brewer spectrophotometers at Hradec Králové (Czech) and the data from the re-analyses ERA-40 and ERA-Interim were assimilated and combined to investigate differences between the particular data sets over Central Europe, the NH mid-latitudes. The Dobson-to-Brewer transfer function and the algorithm for approximation of the data from the re-analyses were developed, tested and applied for creation of instrumentally consistent and completed total ozone data series of the 50-year period 1961-2010 of observations. The assimilation has reduced the well-known seasonal differences between Dobson and Brewer data below the 1% calibration limit of the spectrophotometers. Incorporation of the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim total ozone data on days with missing measurements significantly improved completeness and reliability of the data series mainly in the first two decades of the period concerned. Consistent behaviour of the original and assimilated data sets was found in the pre-ozone-hole period (1961-1985). In the post-Pinatubo (1994-2010) era the data series show seasonal differences that can introduce uncertainty in estimation of ozone recovery mainly in the winter-spring season when the effect of the Montreal Protocol and its Amendments is expected. All the data sets confirm substantial depletion of ozone also in the summer months that gives rise to the question about its origin. The assimilated and completed data series of total ozone will be further analyzed to quantify chemical ozone losses and contribution of natural atmospheric processes to the ozone depletion over the region. This case study points out importance of selection and evaluation of the quality and consistency of the input data sets used in estimation of long-term ozone changes including recovery of the ozone layer over the selected areas.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Substantial retreat or disintegration of numerous ice shelves have been observed on the Antarctic Peninsula. The ice shelf in the Prince Gustav Channel retreated gradually since the late 1980's and broke-up in 1995. Tributary glaciers reacted with speed-up, surface lowering and increased ice discharge, consequently contributing to sea level rise. We present a detailed long-term study (1993-2014) on the dynamic response of Sjögren Inlet glaciers to the disintegration of Prince Gustav Ice Shelf. We analyzed various remote sensing datasets to observe the reactions of the glaciers to the loss of the buttressing ice shelf. A strong increase in ice surface velocities was observed with maximum flow speeds reaching 2.82±0.48 m/d in 2007 and 1.50±0.32 m/d in 2004 at Sjögren and Boydell glaciers respectively. Subsequently, the flow velocities decelerated, however in late 2014, we still measured about two times the values of our first measurements in 1996. The tributary glaciers retreated 61.7±3.1 km² behind the former grounding line of the ice shelf. In regions below 1000 m a.s.l., a mean surface lowering of -68±10 m (-3.1 m/a) was observed in the period 1993-2014. The lowering rate decreased to -2.2 m/a in recent years. Based on the surface lowering rates, geodetic mass balances of the glaciers were derived for different time steps. High mass loss rate of -1.21±0.36 Gt/a was found in the earliest period (1993-2001). Due to the dynamic adjustments of the glaciers to the new boundary conditions the ice mass loss reduced to -0.59±0.11 Gt/a in the period 2012-2014, resulting in an average mass loss rate of -0.89±0.16 Gt/a (1993-2014). Including the retreat of the ice front and grounding line, a total mass change of -38.5±7.7 Gt and a contribution to sea level rise of 0.061±0.013 mm were computed. Analysis of the ice flux revealed that available bedrock elevation estimates at Sjögren Inlet are too shallow and are the major uncertainty in ice flux computations. This temporally dense time series analysis of Sjögren Inlet glaciers shows that the adjustments of tributary glaciers to ice shelf disintegration are still going on and provides detailed information of the changes in glacier dynamics.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

In the deep-sea, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is often marked by clay-rich condensed intervals caused by dissolution of carbonate sediments, capped by a carbonate-rich interval. Constraining the duration of both the dissolution and subsequent cap-carbonate intervals is essential to computing marine carbon fluxes and thus testing hypotheses for the origin of this event. To this end, we provide new high-resolution helium isotope records spanning the Paleocene-Eocene boundary at ODP Site 1266 in the South Atlantic. The extraterrestrial 3He, 3HeET, concentrations replicate trends observed at ODP Site 690 by Farley and Eltgroth (2003, doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(03)00017-7). By assuming a constant flux of 3HeET we constrain relative changes in accumulation rates of sediment across the PETM and construct a new age model for the event. In this new chronology the zero carbonate layer represents 35 kyr, some of which reflects clay produced by dissolution of Paleocene (pre-PETM) sediments. Above this layer, carbonate concentrations increase for ~165 kyr and remain higher than in the latest Paleocene until 234 +48/-34 kyr above the base of the clay. The new chronology indicates that minimum d13C values persisted for a maximum of 134 +27/-19 kyr and the inflection point previously chosen to designate the end of the CIE recovery occurs at 217 +44/-31 kyr. This allocation of time differs from that of the cycle-based age model of Röhl et al. (2007, doi:10.1029/2007GC001784) in that it assigns more time to the clay layer followed by a more gradual recovery of carbonate-rich sedimentation. The new model also suggests a longer sustained d13C excursion followed by a more rapid recovery to pre-PETM d13C values. These differences have important implications for constraining the source(s) of carbon and mechanisms for its subsequent sequestration, favoring models that include a sustained release

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Following three decades of relative stability, Jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland, underwent dramatic thinning, retreat and speed-up starting in 1998. To assess the amount of ice loss, we analyzed 1985 aerial photos and derived a 40 m grid digital elevation model (DEM). We also obtained a 2007 40 m grid SPOT DEM covering the same region. Comparison of the two DEMs over an area of ~4000 km**2 revealed a total ice loss of 160 ± 4 km**3, with 107 ± 0.2 km**3 in grounded regions (0.27 mm eustatic sea-level rise) and 53 ± 4 km**3 from the disintegration of the floating tongue. Comparison of the DEMs with 1997 NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper data indicates that this ice loss essentially occurred after 1997, with +0.7 ± 5.6 km**3 between 1985 and 1997 and -160 ± 7 km**3 between 1997 and 2007. The latter is equivalent to an average specific mass balance of -3.7 ± 0.2 m/a over the study area. Previously reported thickening of the main glacier during the early 1990s was accompanied by similar-magnitude thinning outside the areas of fast flow, indicating that the land-based ice continued reacting to longer-term climate forcing.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The northern Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest changing regions on Earth. The disintegration of the Larsen-A Ice Shelf in 1995 caused tributary glaciers to adjust by speeding up, surface lowering, and overall increased ice-mass discharge. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of these changes at the Dinsmoor-Bombardier-Edgeworth glacier system by analyzing dense time series from various spaceborne and airborne Earth observation missions. Precollapse ice shelf conditions and subsequent adjustments through 2014 were covered. Our results show a response of the glacier system some months after the breakup, reaching maximum surface velocities at the glacier front of up to 8.8 m/d in 1999 and a subsequent decrease to ~1.5 m/d in 2014. Using a dense time series of interferometrically derived TanDEM-X digital elevation models and photogrammetric data, an exponential function was fitted for the decrease in surface elevation. Elevation changes in areas below 1000 m a.s.l. amounted to at least 130±15 m130±15 m between 1995 and 2014, with change rates of ~3.15 m/a between 2003 and 2008. Current change rates (2010-2014) are in the range of 1.7 m/a. Mass imbalances were computed with different scenarios of boundary conditions. The most plausible results amount to -40.7±3.9 Gt-40.7±3.9 Gt. The contribution to sea level rise was estimated to be 18.8±1.8 Gt18.8±1.8 Gt, corresponding to a 0.052±0.005 mm0.052±0.005 mm sea level equivalent, for the period 1995-2014. Our analysis and scenario considerations revealed that major uncertainties still exist due to insufficiently accurate ice-thickness information. The second largest uncertainty in the computations was the glacier surface mass balance, which is still poorly known. Our time series analysis facilitates an improved comparison with GRACE data and as input to modeling of glacio-isostatic uplift in this region. The study contributed to a better understanding of how glacier systems adjust to ice shelf disintegration.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Plant leaf wax hydrogen isotope (dDwax) reconstructions are increasingly being used to reconstruct hydrological change. This approach is based upon the assumption that variations in hydroclimatic variables, and in particular, the isotopic composition of precipitation (dDP), dominate dDwax. However modern calibration studies suggest that offsets between plant types may bias the dDwax hydrological proxy at times of vegetation change. In this study, I pair leaf wax analyses with published pollen data to quantify this effect and construct the first vegetation-corrected hydrogen isotopic evidence for precipitation (dDcorrP). In marine sediments from Deep Sea Drilling Program Site 231 in the Gulf of Aden spanning 11.4-3.8 Ma (late Miocene and earliest Pliocene), I find 77 per mil swings in dDwax that correspond to pollen evidence for substantial vegetation change. Similarities between dDP and dDcorrP imply that the hydrological tracer is qualitatively robust to vegetation change. However, computed vegetation corrections can be as large as 31 per mil indicating substantial quantitative uncertainty in the raw hydrological proxy. The resulting dDcorrP values quantify hydrological change and allow us to identify times considerably wetter than modern at 11.09, 7.26, 5.71 and 3.89 Ma. More generally, this novel interpretative framework builds the foundations of improved quantitative paleohydrological reconstructions with the dDwax proxy, in contexts where vegetation change may bias the plant-based proxy. The vegetation corrected paleoprecipitation reconstruction dDcorrP, represents the best available estimate as proof-of-concept, for an approach that I hope will be refined and more broadly applied.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

The compositions of natural glasses and phenocrysts in basalts from Deep Sea Drilling Project Sites 501, 504, and 505, near the Costa Rica Rift, constitute evidence for the existence of a periodically replenished axial magma chamber that repeatedly erupted lavas of remarkably uniform composition. Magma compositions were affected by three general components: (1) injected magmas carrying (in decreasing order of abundance) Plagioclase, olivine, and chrome-spinel phenocrysts (spinel assemblage); (2) injected magmas carrying Plagioclase, clinopyroxene, and olivine phenocrysts, but no spinel (clinopyroxene assemblage); and (3) moderately evolved hybrids in the magma chamber itself. The compositions of the injected phenocrysts and minerals in glomerocrysts are as follows: Plagioclase - An85-94; olivine - Fo87-89; clinopyroxene - high Cr2O3 (0.7-1.1%), endiopside (Wo42En51Fs7), and aluminous chromian spinel (Cr/Cr + Al = 0.3). These minerals resemble those thought to occur in upper mantle sources (9 kbars and less) of ocean-ridge basalts and to crystallize in magmas near those sources. In the magma chamber, more sodic Plagioclase (An79-85), less magnesian olivine (Fo81-86) and low-Cr2O3 (0.1-0.4%) clinopyroxene formed rims on these crystals, grew as other phenocrysts, and formed cumulus segregations on the walls and floors of the magma chamber. In the spinel-assemblage magmas, magnesiochromite (Cr/Cr + Al = 0.4-0.5) also formed. Some cumulus segregations were later entrained in lavas as xenoliths. The glass compositions define 16 internally homogeneous eruptive units, 13 of which are in stratigraphic order in a single hole, Hole 504B, which was drilled 561.5 meters into the ocean crust. These units are defined as differing from each other by more than analytical uncertainty in one or more oxides. However, many of the glass groups in Hole 504B show virtually no differences in TiO2 contents, Mg/Mg + Fe2+, or normative An/An + Ab, all of which are sensitive indicators of crystallization differentiation. The differences are so small that they are only apparent in the glass compositions; they are almost completely obscured in whole-rock samples by the presence of phenocrysts and the effects of alteration. Moreover, several of the glass units at different depths in Hole 504B are compositionally identical, with all oxides falling within the range of analytical uncertainty, with only small variations in the rest of the suite. The repetition of identical chemical types requires (1) very regular injection of magmas into the magma chamber, (2) extreme similarity of injected magmas, and (3) displacement of very nearly the same proportion of the magmas in the chamber at each injection. Numerical modeling and thermal considerations have led some workers to propose the existence of such conditions at certain types of spreading centers, but the lava and glass compositions at Hole 504B represent the first direct evidence revealed by drilling of the existence of a compositionally nearly steady-state magma chamber, and this chapter examines the processes acting in it in some detail. The glass groups that are most similar are from clinopyroxene-assemblage lavas, which have a range of Mg/Mg + Fe2"1" of 0.59 to 0.65. Spinel-assemblage basalts are less evolved, with Mg/Mg + Fe2+ of 0.65 to 0.69, but both types have nearly identical normative An/An + Ab (0.65-0.66). However, the two lava types contain megacrysts (olivine, Plagioclase, clinopyroxene) that crystallized from melts with Mg/Mg + Fe2+ values of 0.70 to 0.72. Projection of glass compositions into ternary normative systems suggests that spinel-assemblage magmas originated deeper in the mantle than clinopyroxene-assemblage magmas, and mineral data indicate that the two types followed different fractionation paths before reaching the magma chamber. The two magma types therefore represent neither a low- nor a high-pressure fractionation sequence. Some of the spinel-assemblage magmas may have had picritic parents, but were coprecipitating all of the spinel-assemblage phenocrysts before reaching the magma chamber. Clinopyroxene-assemblage magmas did not have picritic parents, but the compositions of phenocrysts suggest that they originated at about 9 kbars, near the transition between plagioclase peridotite and spinel peridotite in the mantle. Two glass groups have higher contents of alkalis, TiO2, and P2O5 than the others, evidently as a result of the compositions of mantle sources. Eruption of these lavas implies that conduits and chambers containing magmas from dissimilar sources were not completely interconnected on the Costa Rica Rift. The data are used to draw comparisons with the East Pacific Rise and to consider the mechanisms that may have prevented the eruption of ferrobasalts at these sites.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Here a new analytical methodology is described for measuring the isotopic composition of boron in foraminifera using multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICPMS). This new approach is fast (~10 samples analysed in duplicate per analytical session) and accurate (to better than 0.25 per mil at 95% confidence) with acceptable sample size requirements (1-3 mg of carbonate). A core top calibration of several common planktic and two benthic species from geographically widespread localities shows a very close agreement between the isotopic composition measured by MC-ICPMS and the isotopic composition of B(OH)-4 in seawater (as predicted using the recently measured isotopic equilibrium factor of 1.0272) at the depth of habitat. A down core and core top investigation of boron concentration (B/Ca ratio) shows that the partition coefficient is influenced by [CO2-3] complicating the application of this proxy. Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that these two proxies can be used to fully constrain the carbonate system of surface water in the Caribbean Sea (ODP Site 999A) over the last 130 kyr. This reconstruction shows that during much of the Holocene and the last interglacial period surface water at Site 999A was in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. During the intervening colder periods although the surface water pCO2 was lower than the Holocene, it was a minor to significant source of CO2 to the atmosphere possibly due to either an expansion of the eastern equatorial Atlantic upwelling zone, or a more local expansion of coastal upwelling in the southern Caribbean. Such reorganisation of the oceanic carbonate system in favour of a larger source of CO2 to the atmosphere from the equatorial ocean may require mechanisms responsible for lowering atmospheric CO2 during glacial periods to be more efficient than previously supposed.

Relevância:

80.00% 80.00%

Publicador:

Resumo:

Sedimentary proxies used to reconstruct marine productivity suffer from variable preservation and are sensitive to factors other than productivity. Therefore, proxy calibration is warranted. Here we map the spatial patterns of two paleoproductivity proxies, biogenic opal and barium fluxes, from a set of core-top sediments recovered in the Subarctic North Pacific. Comparisons of the proxy data with independent estimates of primary and export production, surface water macronutrient concentrations and biological pCO2 drawdown indicate that neither proxy shows a significant correlation with primary or export productivity for the entire region. Biogenic opal fluxes, when corrected for preservation using 230Th-normalized accumulation rates, show a good correlation with primary productivity along the volcanic arcs (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0024) and with export productivity throughout the western Subarctic North Pacific (tau = 0.71, p = 0.0107). Moderate and good correlations of biogenic barium flux with export production (tau = 0.57, p = 0.0022) and with surface water silicate concentrations (tau = 0.70, p = 0.0002) are observed for the central and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. For reasons unknown, however, no correlation is found in the western Subarctic North Pacific between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Nonetheless, we show that barite saturation, uncertainty in the lithogenic barium corrections and problems with the reference datasets are not responsible for the lack of a significant correlation between biogenic barium flux and the reference data. Further studies evaluating the factors controlling the variability of the biogenic constituents in the sediments are desirable in this region.