Ensemble prediction distribution maps of macroalgae for current conditions and four climate change scenarios and high resultion bathymetry for Potter Cove, WAP, Antarctica

Species distribution models (SDM) predict species occurrence based on statistical relationships with environmental conditions. The R-package biomod2 which includes 10 different SDM techniques and 10 different evaluation methods was used in this study. Macroalgae are the main biomass producers in Potter Cove, King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo), Antarctica, and they are sensitive to climate change factors such as suspended particulate matter (SPM). Macroalgae presence and absence data were used to test SDMs suitability and, simultaneously, to assess the environmental response of macroalgae as well as to model four scenarios of distribution shifts by varying SPM conditions due to climate change. According to the averaged evaluation scores of Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) and True scale statistics (TSS) by models, those methods based on a multitude of decision trees such as Random Forest and Classification Tree Analysis, reached the highest predictive power followed by generalized boosted models (GBM) and maximum-entropy approaches (Maxent). The final ensemble model used 135 of 200 calculated models (TSS > 0.7) and identified hard substrate and SPM as the most influencing parameters followed by distance to glacier, total organic carbon (TOC), bathymetry and slope. The climate change scenarios show an invasive reaction of the macroalgae in case of less SPM and a retreat of the macroalgae in case of higher assumed SPM values.

Response of spring diatoms to CO2 availability in the Western North Pacific as determined by next-generation sequencing

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have enabled us to determine phytoplankton community compositions at high resolution. However, few studies have adopted this approach to assess the responses of natural phytoplankton communities to environmental change. Here, we report the impact of different CO2 levels on spring diatoms in the Oyashio region of the western North Pacific as estimated by NGS of the diatom-specific rbcL gene (DNA), which encodes the large subunit of RubisCO. We also examined the abundance and composition of rbcL transcripts (cDNA) in diatoms to assess their physiological responses to changing CO2 levels. A short-term (3-day) incubation experiment was carried out on-deck using surface Oyashio waters under different pCO2 levels (180, 350, 750, and 1000 µatm) in May 2011. During the incubation, the transcript abundance of the diatom-specific rbcL gene decreased with an increase in seawater pCO2 levels. These results suggest that CO2 fixation capacity of diatoms decreased rapidly under elevated CO2 levels. In the high CO2 treatments (750 and 1000 µatm), diversity of diatom-specific rbcL gene and its transcripts decreased relative to the control treatment (350µatm), as well as contributions of Chaetocerataceae, Thalassiosiraceae, and Fragilariaceae to the total population, but the contributions of Bacillariaceae increased. In the low CO2 treatment, contributions of Bacillariaceae also increased together with other eukaryotes. These suggest that changes in CO2 levels can alter the community composition of spring diatoms in the Oyashio region. Overall, the NGS technology provided us a deeper understanding of the response of diatoms to changes in CO2 levels in terms of their community composition, diversity, and photosynthetic physiology.

Experiment: Metabolic shifts in the Antarctic fish Notothenia rossii in response to rising temperature and PCO2

Introduction Ongoing ocean warming and acidification increasingly affect marine ecosystems, in particular around the Antarctic Peninsula. Yet little is known about the capability of Antarctic notothenioid fish to cope with rising temperature in acidifying seawater. While the whole animal level is expected to be more sensitive towards hypercapnia and temperature, the basis of thermal tolerance is set at the cellular level, with a putative key role for mitochondria. This study therefore investigates the physiological responses of the Antarctic Notothenia rossii after long-term acclimation to increased temperatures (7°C) and elevated PCO2 (0.2 kPa CO2) at different levels of physiological organisation. Results For an integrated picture, we analysed the acclimation capacities of N. rossii by measuring routine metabolic rate (RMR), mitochondrial capacities (state III respiration) as well as intra- and extracellular acid-base status during acute thermal challenges and after long-term acclimation to changing temperature and hypercapnia. RMR was partially compensated during warm- acclimation (decreased below the rate observed after acute warming), while elevated PCO2 had no effect on cold or warm acclimated RMR. Mitochondrial state III respiration was unaffected by temperature acclimation but depressed in cold and warm hypercapnia-acclimated fish. In both cold- and warm-exposed N. rossii, hypercapnia acclimation resulted in a shift of extracellular pH (pHe) towards more alkaline values. A similar overcompensation was visible in muscle intracellular pH (pHi). pHi in liver displayed a slight acidosis after warm normo- or hypercapnia acclimation, nevertheless, long-term exposure to higher PCO2 was compensated for by intracellular bicarbonate accumulation. Conclusion The partial warm compensation in whole animal metabolic rate indicates beginning limitations in tissue oxygen supply after warm-acclimation of N. rossii. Compensatory mechanisms of the reduced mitochondrial capacities under chronic hypercapnia may include a new metabolic equilibrium to meet the elevated energy demand for acid-base regulation. New set points of acid-base regulation under hypercapnia, visible at the systemic and intracellular level, indicate that N. rossii can at least in part acclimate to ocean warming and acidification. It remains open whether the reduced capacities of mitochondrial energy metabolism are adaptive or would impair population fitness over longer timescales under chronically elevated temperature and PCO2.

Calcite saturation and dissolution index of core-top sediment samples from the Ontong Java Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Caribbean and the Ceara Rise, the Indian Ocean, the Ninety-East Ridge and from the east of Madagascar

X-ray computed tomography (CT) provides an insight into the progression of dissolution in the tests of planktonic foraminifera. Four species of foraminifera (G. ruber [white], G. sacculifer, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata) from Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean core-top samples were examined by CT and SEM. Inner chamber walls began to dissolve at Delta[CO3**2-] values of 12-14 µmol/kg. Close to the calcite saturation horizon, dissolution and precipitation of calcite may occur simultaneously. Inner calcite of G. sacculifer, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata from such sites appeared altered or replaced, whereas outer crust calcite was dense with no pores. Unlike the other species, there was no distinction between inner and outer calcite in CT scans of G. ruber. Empty calcite crusts of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata were most resistant to dissolution and were present in samples where Delta[CO3**2-] ~ -20 µmol/kg. Five stages of preservation were identified in CT scans, and an empirical dissolution index, XDX, was established. XDX appears to be insensitive to initial test mass. Mass loss in response to dissolution was similar between species and sites at ~ 0.4 µg/µmol/kg. We provide calibrations to estimate Delta[CO3**2-] and initial test mass from XDX.

Investigation of escape response of Norwegian Pecten maximus

The ongoing process of ocean acidification already affects marine life and, according to the concept of oxygen- and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance (OCLTT), these effects may be exacerbated at the boarders of the thermal tolerance window. We studied the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on clapping performance and energy metabolism of the commercially important scallop Pecten maximus. Individuals were exposed for at least 30 days to 4°C (winter) or to 10°C (spring/summer) at either ambient (0.04 kPa, normocapnia) or predicted future PCO2 levels (0.11 kPa, hypercapnia). Cold (4°C) exposed groups revealed thermal stress exacerbated by PCO2 indicated by a high mortality overall and its increase from 55% under normocapnia to 90% under hypercapnia. We therefore excluded the 4°C groups from further experimentation. Scallops at 10°C showed impaired clapping performance following hypercapnic exposure. Force production was significantly reduced although the number of claps was unchanged between normo- and hypercapnia exposed scallops. The difference between maximal and resting metabolic rate (aerobic scope) of the hypercapnic scallops was significantly reduced compared to normocapnic animals, indicating a reduction in net aerobic scope. Our data confirm that ocean acidification narrows the thermal tolerance range of scallops resulting in elevated vulnerability to temperature extremes and impairs the animal's performance capacity with potentially detrimental consequences for its fitness and survival in the ocean of tomorrow.