Modelled global ocean temperature from 6 ka to present

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Monthly interpolated coral d18O records from Bonaire corals

Several proxy-based and modeling studies have investigated long-term changes in Caribbean climate during the Holocene, however, very little is known on its variability on short timescales. Here we reconstruct seasonality and interannual to multidecadal variability of sea surface hydrology of the southern Caribbean Sea by applying paired coral Sr/Ca and d18O measurements on fossil annually banded Diploria strigosa corals from Bonaire. This allows for better understanding of seasonal to multidecadal variability of the Caribbean hydrological cycle during the mid- to late Holocene. The monthly resolved coral Delta d18O records are used as a proxy for the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (d18Osw) of the southern Caribbean Sea. Consistent with modern day conditions, annual d18Osw cycles reconstructed from three modern corals reveal that freshwater budget at the study site is influenced by both net precipitation and advection of tropical freshwater brought by wind-driven surface currents. In contrast, the annual d18Osw cycle reconstructed from a mid-Holocene coral indicates a sharp peak towards more negative values in summer, suggesting intense summer precipitation at 6 ka BP (before present). In line with this, our model simulations indicate that increased seasonality of the hydrological cycle at 6 ka BP results from enhanced precipitation in summertime. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, the systematic positive correlation observed between reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity suggests that freshwater discharged from the Orinoco and Amazon rivers and transported into the Caribbean by wind-driven surface currents is a critical component influencing sea surface hydrology on these timescales.

Simulated change in atmospheric CO2 and D14C around 14.6 kyr BP, at the onset of the northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød

One of the most abrupt and yet unexplained past rises in atmospheric CO2 (10 p.p.m.v. in two centuries) occurred in quasi-synchrony with abrupt northern hemispheric warming into the Bølling/Allerød, 14,600 years ago. Here we use a U/Th-dated record of atmospheric D14C from Tahiti corals to provide an independent and precise age control for this CO2 rise. We also use model simulations to show that the release of old (nearly 14C-free) carbon can explain these changes in CO2 and D14C. The D14C record provides an independent constraint on the amount of carbon released (125 Pg C). We suggest, in line with observations of atmospheric CH4 and terrigenous biomarkers, that thawing permafrost in high northern latitudes could have been the source of carbon, possibly with contribution from flooding of the Siberian continental shelf during meltwater pulse 1A. Our findings highlight the potential of the permafrost carbon reservoir to modulate abrupt climate changes via greenhouse-gas feedbacks.

Changes in bottom water corrosiveness and carbonate ion concentrations in the sub-Antarctic Atlantic during the last glacial period

The glacial climate system transitioned rapidly between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. This variability, referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger variability, is widely believed to arise from perturbations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Evidence for such changes during the longer Heinrich stadials has been identified, but direct evidence for overturning circulation changes during Dansgaard-Oeschger events has proven elusive. Here we reconstruct bottom water [CO3]2- variability from B/Ca ratios of benthic foraminifera and indicators of sedimentary dissolution, and use these reconstructions to infer the flow of northern-sourced deep water to the deep central sub-Antarctic Atlantic Ocean. We find that nearly every Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadial is accompanied by a rapid incursion of North Atlantic Deep Water into the deep South Atlantic. Based on these results and transient climate model simulations, we conclude that North Atlantic stadial-interstadial climate variability was associated with significant Atlantic overturning circulation changes that were rapidly transmitted across the Atlantic. However, by demonstrating the persistent role of Atlantic overturning circulation changes in past abrupt climate variability, our reconstructions of carbonate chemistry further indicate that the carbon cycle response to abrupt climate change was not a simple function of North Atlantic overturning.

Sedimentology and gas hydrates of IODP Expedition 311 samples

Expedition 311 of the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) to northern Cascadia recovered gas-hydrate bearing sediments along a SW-NE transect from the first ridge of the accretionary margin to the eastward limit of gas-hydrate stability. In this study we contrast the gas gas-hydrate distribution from two sites drilled ~ 8 km apart in different tectonic settings. At Site U1325, drilled on a depositional basin with nearly horizontal sedimentary sequences, the gas-hydrate distribution shows a trend of increasing saturation toward the base of gas-hydrate stability, consistent with several model simulations in the literature. Site U1326 was drilled on an uplifted ridge characterized by faulting, which has likely experienced some mass wasting events. Here the gas hydrate does not show a clear depth-distribution trend, the highest gas-hydrate saturation occurs well within the gas-hydrate stability zone at the shallow depth of ~ 49 mbsf. Sediments at both sites are characterized by abundant coarse-grained (sand) layers up to 23 cm in thickness, and are interspaced within fine-grained (clay and silty clay) detrital sediments. The gas-hydrate distribution is punctuated by localized depth intervals of high gas-hydrate saturation, which preferentially occur in the coarse-grained horizons and occupy up to 60% of the pore space at Site U1325 and > 80% at Site U1326. Detailed analyses of contiguous samples of different lithologies show that when enough methane is present, about 90% of the variance in gas-hydrate saturation can be explained by the sand (> 63 µm) content of the sediments. The variability in gas-hydrate occupancy of sandy horizons at Site U1326 reflects an insufficient methane supply to the sediment section between 190 and 245 mbsf.

Coral Sr/Ca records from Bonaire Holocene corals

Proxy reconstructions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) that extend beyond the period of instrumental observations have primarily focused on centennial to millennial variability rather than on seasonal to multidecadal variability. Here we present monthly-resolved records of Sr/Ca (a proxy of SST) from fossil annually-banded Diploria strigosa corals from Bonaire (southern Caribbean Sea). The individual corals provide time-windows of up to 68 years length, and the total number of 295 years of record allows for assessing the natural range of seasonal to multidecadal SST variability in the western tropical Atlantic during snapshots of the mid- to late Holocene. Comparable to modern climate, the coral Sr/Ca records reveal that mid- to late Holocene SST was characterised by clear seasonal cycles, persistent quasi-biennial and prominent interannual as well as inter- to multidecadal-scale variability. However, the magnitude of SST variations on these timescales has varied over the last 6.2 ka. The coral records show increased seasonality during the mid-Holocene consistent with climate model simulations indicating that southern Caribbean SST seasonality is induced by insolation changes on orbital timescales, whereas internal dynamics of the climate system play an important role on shorter timescales. Interannual SST variability is linked to ocean-atmosphere interactions of Atlantic and Pacific origin. Pronounced interannual variability in the western tropical Atlantic is indicated by a 2.35 ka coral, possibly related to a strengthening of the variability of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene. Prominent inter- to multidecadal SST variability is evident in the coral records and slightly more pronounced in the mid-Holocene. We finally argue that our coral data provide a target for studying Holocene climate variability on seasonal and interannual to multidecadal timescales, when using further numerical models and high-resolution proxy data.

Geochemical and palynological measurements from the ODP Leg 189 at Site 1172 on the East Tasman Plateau

A brief (~150 kyr) period of widespread global average surface warming marks the transition between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs, ~56 million years ago. This so-called "Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum" (PETM) is associated with the massive injection of 13C-depleted carbon, reflected in a negative carbon isotope excursion (CIE). Biotic responses include a global abundance peak (acme) of the subtropical dinoflagellate Apectodinium. Here we identify the PETM in a marine sedimentary sequence deposited on the East Tasman Plateau at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1172 and show, based on the organic paleothermometer TEX86, that southwest Pacific sea surface temperatures increased from ~26 °C to ~33°C during the PETM. Such temperatures before, during and after the PETM are >10 °C warmer than predicted by paleoclimate model simulations for this latitude. In part, this discrepancy may be explained by potential seasonal biases in the TEX86 proxy in polar oceans. Additionally, the data suggest that not only Arctic, but also Antarctic temperatures may be underestimated in simulations of ancient greenhouse climates by current generation fully coupled climate models. An early influx of abundant Apectodinium confirms that environmental change preceded the CIE on a global scale. Organic dinoflagellate cyst assemblages suggest a local decrease in the amount of river run off reaching the core site during the PETM, possibly in concert with eustatic rise. Moreover, the assemblages suggest changes in seasonality of the regional hydrological system and storm activity. Finally, significant variation in dinoflagellate cyst assemblages during the PETM indicates that southwest Pacific climates varied significantly over time scales of 103 - 104 years during this event, a finding comparable to similar studies of PETM successions from the New Jersey Shelf.

Hydroclimate records and radiocarbon dating of sediment cores SO189/2 _39KL, SO189/2 _119KL, and SO189/2 _144KL from the eastern tropical Indian Ocean

The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells1, 2, 3, 4, 5, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells.

Environmental analyses of cyclic Middle Eocene sediments and palynomorph records of ODP Hole 189-1172A

The influence of orbital precession on early Paleogene climate and ocean circulation patterns in the southeast Pacific region is investigated by combining environmental analyses of cyclic Middle Eocene sediments and palynomorph records recovered from ODP Hole 1172A on the East Tasman Plateau with climate model simulations. Integration of results indicates that in the marine realm, direct effects of precessional forcing are not pronounced, although increased precipitation/runoff could have enhanced dinoflagellate cyst production. On the southeast Australian continent, the most pronounced effects of precessional forcing were fluctuations in summer precipitation and temperature on the Antarctic Margin. These fluctuations resulted in vegetational changes, most notably in the distribution of Nothofagus (subgenus Brassospora). The climate model results suggest significant fluctuations in sea ice in the Ross Sea, notably during Austral summers. This is consistent with the influx of Antarctic heterotrophic dinoflagellates in the early part of the studied record. The data demonstrate a strong precessionally driven climate variability and thus support the concept that precessional forcing could have played a role in early Antarctic glaciation via changes in runoff and/or precipitation.

Bulk sediment element analysis of sediment cores GeoB10065-9 and GeoB10065-7, offshore northwest Sumba Island, Indonesia

The Australian-Indonesian monsoon has a governing influence on the agricultural practices and livelihood in the highly populated islands of Indonesia. However, little is known about the factors that have influenced past monsoon activity in southern Indonesia. Here, we present a ~6000 years high-resolution record of Australian-Indonesian summer monsoon (AISM) rainfall variations based on bulk sediment element analysis in a sediment archive retrieved offshore northwest Sumba Island (Indonesia). The record suggests lower riverine detrital supply and hence weaker AISM rainfall between 6000 yr BP and ~3000 yr BP compared to the Late Holocene. We find a distinct shift in terrigenous sediment supply at around 2800 yr BP indicating a reorganization of the AISM from a drier Mid Holocene to a wetter Late Holocene in southern Indonesia. The abrupt increase in rainfall at around 2800 yr BP coincides with a grand solar minimum. An increase in southern Indonesian rainfall in response to a solar minimum is consistent with climate model simulations that provide a possible explanation of the underlying mechanism responsible for the monsoonal shift. We conclude that variations in solar activity play a significant role in monsoonal rainfall variability at multi-decadal and longer timescales. The combined effect of orbital and solar forcing explains important details in the temporal evolution of AISM rainfall during the last 6000 years. By contrast, we find neither evidence for volcanic forcing of AISM variability nor for a control by long-term variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

High-resolution pollen record of ODP Hole 175-1078C

To address the connection between tropical African vegetation development and high-latitude climate change we present a high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 (off Angola) covering the period 50-10 ka BP. Although several tropical African vegetation and climate reconstructions indicate an impact of Heinrich Stadials (HSs) in Southern Hemisphere Africa, our vegetation record shows no response. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity including a dynamical vegetation component provide one possible explanation. Because both precipitation and evaporation increased during HSs and their effects nearly cancelled each other, there was a negligible change in moisture supply. Consequently, the resulting climatic response to HSs might have been too weak to noticeably affect the vegetation composition in the study area. Our results also show that the response to HSs in southern tropical Africa neither equals nor mirrors the response to abrupt climate change in northern Africa.

(Table 1) Age determination of sediment core A-7

Detailed deglacial and Holocene records of planktonic d18O and Mg/Ca-based sea surface temperature (SST) from the Okinawa Trough suggest that at ~18 to 17 thousand years before present (kyr B.P.), late spring/early summer SSTs were approximately 3°C cooler than today, while surface waters were up to 1 practical salinity unit saltier. These conditions are consistent with a weaker influence of the summer East Asian Monsoon (EAM) than today. The timing of suborbital SST oscillations suggests a close link with abrupt changes in the EAM and North Atlantic climate. A tropical influence, however, may have resulted in subtle decoupling between the North Atlantic and the Okinawa Trough/EAM during the deglaciation. Okinawa Trough surface water trends in the Holocene are consistent with model simulations of an inland shift of intense EAM precipitation during the middle Holocene. Millennial-scale alternations between relatively warm, salty conditions and relatively cold, fresh conditions suggest varying influence of the Kuroshio during the Holocene.