Modelled global ocean temperature from 6 ka to present

We compare the ocean temperature evolution of the Holocene as simulated by climate models and reconstructed from marine temperature proxies. This site provides informations about the Holocene temperature trends as simulated by the models. We use transient simulations from a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, as well as an ensemble of time slice simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. The general pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the models shows a high latitude cooling and a low latitude warming. The proxy dataset comprises a global compilation of marine alkenone- and Mg/Ca-derived SST estimates. Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6000 years. Alkenone-based SST records show a similar pattern as the simulated annual mean SSTs, but the simulated SST trends underestimate the alkenone-based SST trends by a factor of two to five. For Mg/Ca, no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected. We tested if such discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic interpretations of the proxy data. We tested different seasons and depths in the model to compare the proxy data trends, and can reconcile only part of the mismatches on a regional scale. We therefore considered the additional environmental factor changes in the planktonic organisms' habitat depth and a time-shift in the recording season to diagnose whether invoking those environmental factors can help reconciling the proxy records and the model simulations. We find that invoking shifts in the living season and habitat depth can remove some of the model-data discrepancies in SST trends. Regardless whether such adjustments in the environmental parameters during the Holocene are realistic, they indicate that when modeled temperature trends are set up to allow drastic shifts in the ecological behavior of planktonic organisms, they do not capture the full range of reconstructed SST trends. Our findings indicate that climate model and reconstructed temperature trends are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, thus providing a challenge for the interpretation of proxy data as well as the models' sensitivity to orbital forcing.

Monthly interpolated coral d18O records from Bonaire corals

Several proxy-based and modeling studies have investigated long-term changes in Caribbean climate during the Holocene, however, very little is known on its variability on short timescales. Here we reconstruct seasonality and interannual to multidecadal variability of sea surface hydrology of the southern Caribbean Sea by applying paired coral Sr/Ca and d18O measurements on fossil annually banded Diploria strigosa corals from Bonaire. This allows for better understanding of seasonal to multidecadal variability of the Caribbean hydrological cycle during the mid- to late Holocene. The monthly resolved coral Delta d18O records are used as a proxy for the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (d18Osw) of the southern Caribbean Sea. Consistent with modern day conditions, annual d18Osw cycles reconstructed from three modern corals reveal that freshwater budget at the study site is influenced by both net precipitation and advection of tropical freshwater brought by wind-driven surface currents. In contrast, the annual d18Osw cycle reconstructed from a mid-Holocene coral indicates a sharp peak towards more negative values in summer, suggesting intense summer precipitation at 6 ka BP (before present). In line with this, our model simulations indicate that increased seasonality of the hydrological cycle at 6 ka BP results from enhanced precipitation in summertime. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, the systematic positive correlation observed between reconstructed sea surface temperature and salinity suggests that freshwater discharged from the Orinoco and Amazon rivers and transported into the Caribbean by wind-driven surface currents is a critical component influencing sea surface hydrology on these timescales.

Palynology on sediment profile Tso Kar in Ladakh

Palynological investigation of a 410 cm long core section from Tso Kar (33°10'N, 78°E, 4527 m a.s.l.), an alpine lake situated in the arid Ladakh area of NW India at the limit of the present-day Indian summer monsoon, was performed in order to reconstruct post-glacial regional vegetation and climate dynamics. The area was covered with alpine desert vegetation from ca. 15.2 to 14 kyr BP (1 kyr=1000 cal. years), reflecting dry and cold conditions. High influx values of long-distance transported Pinus sylvestris type pollen suggest prevailing air flow from the west and northwest. The spread of alpine meadow communities and local aquatic vegetation is a weak sign of climate amelioration after ca. 14 kyr BP. Pollen data (e.g. influx values of Pinus roxburghii type and Quercus) suggest that this was due to a strengthening of the summer monsoon and the reduced activity of westerly winds. The further spread of Artemisia and species-rich meadows occurred in response to improved moisture conditions between ca. 12.9 and 12.5 kyr BP. The subsequent change towards drier desert-steppe vegetation likely indicates more frequent westerly disturbances and associated snowfalls, which favoured the persistence of alpine meadows on edaphically moist sites. The spread of Chenopodiaceae-dominated vegetation associated with an extremely weak monsoon occurred at ca. 12.2-11.8 kyr BP during the Younger Dryas interstadial. A major increase in humidity is inferred from the development of Artemisia-dominated steppe and wet alpine meadows with Gentianaceae after the late glacial/early Holocene transition in response to the strengthening of the summer monsoon. Monsoonal influence reached maximum activity in the Tso Kar region between ca. 10.9 and 9.2 kyr BP. The subsequent development of the alpine meadow, steppe and desert-steppe vegetation points to a moderate reduction in the moisture supply, which can be linked to the weaker summer monsoon and the accompanying enhancement of the winter westerly flow from ca. 9.2 to 4.8 kyr BP. The highest water levels of Tso Kar around 8 kyr BP probably reflect combined effect of both monsoonal and westerly influence in the region. An abrupt shift towards aridity in the Tso Kar region occurred after ca. 4.8 kyr BP, as evidenced by an expansion of Chenopodiaceae-dominated desert-steppe. Low pollen influx values registered ca. 2.8-1.3 kyr BP suggest scarce vegetation cover and unfavourable growing conditions likely associated with a further weakening of the Indian Monsoon.

Three time-slice simulations of the Eemian (eem), the mid-Holocene (hol), and a pre-industrial (pri) control run with the coupled atmosphere-ocean-model ECHAM5/MPI-OM

Orbital forcing does not only exert direct insolation effects, but also alters climate indirectly through feedback mechanisms that modify atmosphere and ocean dynamics and meridional heat and moisture transfers. We investigate the regional effects of these changes by detailed analysis of atmosphere and ocean circulation and heat transports in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-biosphere general circulation model (ECHAM5/JSBACH/MPI-OM). We perform long term quasi equilibrium simulations under pre-industrial, mid-Holocene (6000 years before present - yBP), and Eemian (125 000 yBP) orbital boundary conditions. Compared to pre-industrial climate, Eemian and Holocene temperatures show generally warmer conditions at higher and cooler conditions at lower latitudes. Changes in sea-ice cover, ocean heat transports, and atmospheric circulation patterns lead to pronounced regional heterogeneity. Over Europe, the warming is most pronounced over the north-eastern part in accordance with recent reconstructions for the Holocene. We attribute this warming to enhanced ocean circulation in the Nordic Seas and enhanced ocean-atmosphere heat flux over the Barents Shelf in conduction with retreat of sea ice and intensified winter storm tracks over northern Europe.