Standardized rainfall indices for the West and Central Sahel, and the Guinea Coast

For years, various indices of seasonal West African precipitation have served as useful predictors of the overall tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Ocean. Since the mid-1990s, the correlation unexpectedly deteriorated. In the present study, statistical techniques are developed to describe the nonstationary nature of the correlations between annual measures of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and three selected West African precipitation indices (namely, western Sahelian precipitation in June-September, central Sahelian precipitation in June-September, and Guinean coastal precipitation in the preceding year's August-November period). The correlations between these parameters are found to vary over the period from 1921 to 2007 on a range of time scales. Additionally, considerable year-to-year variability in the strength of these correlations is documented by selecting subsamples of years with respect to various meteorological factors. Broadly, in years when the environment in the main development region is generally favorable for enhanced tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., when sea surface temperatures are high, when there is relatively little wind shear through the depth of the troposphere, or when the relative vorticity in the midtroposphere is anomalously high), the correlations between indices of West African monsoon precipitation and Atlantic tropical cyclone activity are considerably weaker than in years when the overall conditions in the region are less conducive. Other more remote climate parameters, such as the phase of the Southern Oscillation, are less effective at modulating the nature of these interactions.

Biomarker records of DSDP Hole 24-231 and terrestrial sediments

ntegrated terrestrial and marine records of northeast African vegetation are needed to provide long high resolution records of environmental variability with established links to specific terrestrial environments. In this study, we compare records of terrestrial vegetation preserved in marine sediments in the Gulf of Aden [Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 231] and an outcrop of lacustrine sediments in the Turkana Basin, Kenya, part of the East African Rift System. We analyzed higher plant biomarkers in sediments from both deposits of known equivalent age, corresponding to a ca. 50-100 ka humid interval prior to the b-Tulu Bor eruption ca. 3.40 Ma, when the Lokochot Lake occupied part of the Turkana Basin. Molecular abundance distributions indicate that long chain n-alkanoic acids in marine sediments are the most reliable proxy for terrestrial vegetation (Carbon Preference Index, CPI = 4.5), with more cautious interpretation needed for n-alkanes and lacustrine archives. Marine sediments record carbon isotopic variability in terrestrial biomarkers of 2-3 per mil, roughly equivalent to 20% variability in the C3/C4 vegetation contribution. The proportion of C4 vegetation apparently increased at times of low terrigenous dust input. Terrestrial sediments reveal much larger (2-10 per mil) shifts in n-alkanoic acid delta13C values. However, molecular abundance and isotopic composition suggest that microbial sources may also contribute fatty acids, contaminating the lacustrine sedimentary record of terrestrial vegetation.