35 resultados para Causal attribution


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We studied the relationship between flower size and nectar properties of hummingbird-visited flowers in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We analysed the nectar volume and concentration as a function of corolla length and the average bill size of visitors for 150 plant species, using the phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) to control for phylogenetic signals in the data. We found that nectar volume is positively correlated with corolla length due to phylogenetic allometry. We also demonstrated that larger flowers provide better rewards for long-billed hummingbirds. Regardless of the causal mechanisms, our results support the hypothesis that morphological floral traits that drive partitioning among hummingbirds correspond to the quantity of resources produced by the flowers in the Atlantic Forest. We demonstrate that the relationship between nectar properties and flower size is affected by phylogenetic constraints and thus future studies assessing the interaction between floral traits need to control for phylogenetic signals in the data.

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The authigenic carbonate mineral ikaite is specific of low-temperature high latitude environments. The depletion of ikaite carbon in 13C isotopes in most cases implies a causal relation of ikaite generation with methane geochemistry. In this paper we present new data on ikaite minerals in Holocene sediments sampled along the Yenisei channel at the southern (74°N) and northern (77°N) ends. Stable carbon isotopes of the ikaite crystals were studied in conjunction with the hydrochemistry and isotope geochemistry of the sediments. Pore water and natural gas samples were separated from sediments to describe the methane carbon isotope distribution pattern throughout two sedimentary sequences embedding the ikaite crystals of different isotope composition (-24 per mil and -42 per mil). The biogenic nature of the methane is indicated by 51 C values being as low as -104.4 per mil. In the case of the moderately depleted sample (-24 per mil) from the southern location the small-scale ikaite formation fits best into the concept of a 'closed» sediment system, with a limited diagenetic carbon dioxide source being present. In the second case, formation of highly abundant and isotopically depleted ikaite crystals (-42 per mil) were caused by upwards flux of biogenic methane from below. Contribution of two main carbon sources to the ikaite crystals was estimated by using a isotope-mass balance equation. Organic-derived CO2 constitutes the principal source in both samples, amounting to 50 % of the total carbon of the strongly depleted ikaite crystals (-42 per mil) sampled at the northern end and 83 % for the moderately (-24 per mil) depleted crystals from the southern end. Methane-derived CO2 comes to 42 % for the isotopically light ikaite crystals and to 9% for the isotopically heavy crystals. The importance of sediment lithology and diffusive transport for ikaite formation is emphazied.

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The reconstruction of the climatic history during the past several hundred years requires a sufficient geographical coverage of combined climate proxy series. Especially in order to identify causal connections between the atmosphere and the ocean, inclusion of marine records into composite climate time series is of fundamental importance. We present two skeletal delta18O chronologies of coral skeletons of Diploria labyrinthiformis from Bermuda fore-reef sites covering periods in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and compare them with instrumental temperature data. Both time series are demonstrated to display sea-surface temperature (SST) variability on inter-annual to decadal time scales. On the basis of a specific modern delta18O vs instrumental SST calibration we reconstruct a time series of SST anomalies between AD 1350 and 1630 covering periods during the Little Ice Age. The application of the coral delta18O vs temperature relationship leads to estimates of past SST variability which are comparable to the magnitude of modern variations. Parallel to delta18O chronologies we present time series of skeletal bulk density. Coral delta18O and skeletal density reveal a strong similarity during Little Ice Age, confirming the reliability of both proxy climate indicators. The past coral records, presented in this study, share features with a previously published climate proxy record from Bermuda and a composite time series of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures. The coral proxy data presented here represent a valuable contribution to elucidate northern Atlantic subtropical climate variation during the past several centuries.

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The middle Miocene delta18O increase represents a fundamental change in earth's climate system due to a major expansion and permanent establishment of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by some effect of deepwater cooling. The long-term cooling trend in the middle to late Miocene was superimposed by several punctuated periods of glaciations (Mi-Events) characterized by oxygen isotopic shifts that have been related to the waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice-sheet and bottom water cooling. Here, we present a high-resolution benthic stable oxygen isotope record from ODP Site 1085 located at the southwestern African continental margin that provides a detailed chronology for the middle to late Miocene (13.9-7.3 Ma) climate transition in the eastern South Atlantic. A composite Fe intensity record obtained by XRF core scanning ODP Sites 1085 and 1087 was used to construct an astronomically calibrated chronology based on orbital tuning. The oxygen isotope data exhibit four distinct delta18O excursions, which have astronomical ages of 13.8, 13.2, 11.7, and 10.4 Ma and correspond to the Mi3, Mi4, Mi5, and Mi6 events. A global climate record was extracted from the oxygen isotopic composition. Both long- and short-term variabilities in the climate record are discussed in terms of sea-level and deep-water temperature changes. The oxygen isotope data support a causal link between sequence boundaries traced from the shelf and glacioeustatic changes due to ice-sheet growth. Spectral analysis of the benthic delta18O record shows strong power in the 400-kyr and 100-kyr bands documenting a paleoceanographic response to eccentricity-modulated variations in precession. A spectral peak around 180-kyr might be related to the asymmetry of the obliquity cycle indicating that the response of the dominantly unipolar Antarctic ice-sheet to obliquityinduced variations probably controlled the middle to late Miocene climate system. Maxima in the delta18O record, interpreted as glacial periods, correspond to minima in 100-kyr eccentricity cycle and minima in the 174-kyr obliquity modulation. Strong middle to late Miocene glacial events are associated with 400-kyr eccentricity minima and obliquity modulation minima. Thus, fluctuations in the amplitude of obliquity and eccentricity seem to be the driving force for the middle to late Miocene climate variability.

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Greenland ice core records indicate that the last deglaciation (~7-21 ka) was punctuated by numerous abrupt climate reversals involving temperature changes of up to 5°C-10°C within decades. However, the cause behind many of these events is uncertain. A likely candidate may have been the input of deglacial meltwater, from the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS), to the high-latitude North Atlantic, which disrupted ocean circulation and triggered cooling. Yet the direct evidence of meltwater input for many of these events has so far remained undetected. In this study, we use the geochemistry (paired Mg/Ca-d18O) of planktonic foraminifera from a sediment core south of Iceland to reconstruct the input of freshwater to the northern North Atlantic during abrupt deglacial climate change. Our record can be placed on the same timescale as ice cores and therefore provides a direct comparison between the timing of freshwater input and climate variability. Meltwater events coincide with the onset of numerous cold intervals, including the Older Dryas (14.0 ka), two events during the Allerød (at ~13.1 and 13.6 ka), the Younger Dryas (12.9 ka), and the 8.2 ka event, supporting a causal link between these abrupt climate changes and meltwater input. During the Bølling-Allerød warm interval, we find that periods of warming are associated with an increased meltwater flux to the northern North Atlantic, which in turn induces abrupt cooling, a cessation in meltwater input, and eventual climate recovery. This implies that feedback between climate and meltwater input produced a highly variable climate. A comparison to published data sets suggests that this feedback likely included fluctuations in the southern margin of the LIS causing rerouting of LIS meltwater between southern and eastern drainage outlets, as proposed by Clark et al. (2001, doi:10.1126/science.1062517).

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The valve area of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, the most abundant diatom species in the Southern Ocean, strongly changes in size in response to varying conditions in the surface ocean. We examined the link, both in two iron fertilization experiments and in sediment samples covering several glacial Terminations, between size variability in this species and environmental conditions across the Antarctic Polar Front, including sea ice extent, sea surface temperature, and the input of eolian dust. The iron fertilization experiments show valve area to be positively correlated with iron concentrations in ambient waters, which suggests the possibility of a causal relation between valve size of Fragilariopsis kerguelensis and ambient surface water iron concentration. Larger valves are usually found during glacial times and thus seem to be related to lower sea surface temperature and wider sea ice coverage. Moreover, our results indicate that there usually is a strong correlation between larger valve size and increased input of eolian dust to the Southern Ocean. However, this correlation, obvious for the fertilization experiments and for glacial Terminations I, II, III, and V, does not seem to be valid for Termination VI, where size appears to be inversely correlated to dust input.

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Planktic d18O and d13C records and point count records of biogenic, volcanic, and nonvolcanic terrigenous [ice-rafted debris (IRD)] sediment components from Hole 919A in the Irminger basin, northern North Atlantic provide a comprehensive dataset from which a paleoceanographic reconstruction for the last 630 kyr has been developed. The paleoceanographic evolution of the Irminger basin during this time contains both long-term patterns and significant developmental steps. One long-term pattern observed is the persistent deposition of hematite-stained ice-rafted debris. This record suggests that the modern and late Pleistocene discharges of icebergs from northern redbed regions to the Irminger Sea lie in the low end of the range observed over the last 630 kyr. In addition, Arctic front fluctuations appear to have been the main controlling factor on the long-term accumulation patterns of IRD and planktic biogenic groups. The Hole 919A sediment record also contains a long-term association between felsic volcanic ash abundances and light d18O excursions in both interglacial and glacial stages, which suggests a causal link between deglaciations and explosive Icelandic eruptions. A significant developmental step in the paleoceanographic reconstruction based on benthic evidence was for diminished supply of Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) beginning at ~380 ka, possibly initiated by the influx of meltwater from broad-scale iceberg discharges along the east Greenland coast. There is also planktic evidence of a two-step cooling of sea surface conditions in the Irminger basin, first at ~338-309 ka and later at ~211-190 ka, after which both glacials and interglacials were colder as the Arctic front migrated southeast of Site 919. In addition to offering these findings, this reconstruction provides a longer-term geologic context for the interpretation of more recent paleoceanographic events and patterns of deposition from this region.

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Thyroid hormones are essential for normal growth and development and disruption of thyroid homeostasis can be critical to young developing individuals. The aim of the present study was to assess plasma concentrations of halogenated organic contaminants (HOCs) in chicks of two seabird species and to investigate possible correlations of HOCs with circulating thyroid hormone (TH) concentrations. Plasma from black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) chicks were sampled in Kongsfjorden, Svalbard in 2006. The samples were analyzed for thyroid hormones and a wide range of HOCs (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hydroxylated (OH-) and methylsulphoned (MeSO-) PCB metabolites, organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), brominated flame retardants (BFRs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs)). Concentrations of HOCs were generally low in kittiwake and fulmar chicks compared to previous reports. HOC concentrations were five times higher in fulmar chicks compared to in kittiwake chicks. PFCs dominated the summed HOCs concentrations in both species (77% in kittiwakes and 69% in fulmars). Positive associations between total thyroxin (TT4) and PFCs (PFHpS, PFOS, PFNA) were found in both species. Although correlations do not implicate causal relationships per se, the correlations are of concern as disruption of TH homeostasis may cause developmental effects in young birds.

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The early Eocene represents a time of major changes in the global carbon cycle and fluctuations in global temperatures on both short- and long-time scales. These perturbations of the ocean-atmosphere system have been linked to orbital forcing and changes in net organic carbon burial, but accurate age models are required to disentangle the various forcing mechanisms and assess causal relationships. Discrepancies between the employed astrochronological and radioisotopic dating techniques prevent the construction of a robust time frame between ~49 and ~54 Ma. Here we present an astronomically tuned age model for this critical time period based on a new high-resolution benthic d13C record of ODP Site 1263, SE Atlantic. First, we assess three possible tuning options to the stable long-eccentricity cycle (405-kyr), starting from Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2, ~54 Ma). Next we compare our record to the existing bulk carbonate d13C record from the equatorial Atlantic (Demerara Rise, ODP Site 1258) to evaluate our three initial age models and compare them with alternative age models previously established for this site. Finally, we refine our preferred age model by expanding our tuning to the 100-kyr eccentricity cycle of the La2010d solution. This solution appears to accurately reflect the long- and short-term eccentricity-related patterns in our benthic d13C record of ODP Site 1263 back to at least 52 Ma and possibly to 54 Ma. Our time scale not only aims to provide a new detailed age model for this period, but it may also serve to enhance our understanding of the response of the climate system to orbital forcing during this super greenhouse period as well as trends in its background state.

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A detailed Pliocene oxygen isotope record from the Ontong Java Plateau, based on measurements of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides sacculifer, was produced for the period from 5 to 2 Ma. The record documents major long- and short-term climate changes. The results show periods of enhanced ice volume at 4.6 to 4.3 Ma and after 2.85 Ma, a long-term warming trend from 4.1 to 3.7 Ma, and a distinct cooling trend that was initiated at 3.5 Ma and progressed through the initiation of large-scale Northern Hemisphere glaciation after 2.85 Ma (according to the time scale of Shackleton and others proposed in 1990). Periods of high average ice volumes also show the highest d18O amplitudes. The pattern of climate cyclicity changed markedly at about 2.85 Ma. Earlier times were marked by high-frequency variability at the precessional frequencies or even higher frequencies, pointing to low-latitude processes as a main controlling factor driving planktonic d18O variability in this period. The high-frequency variability is not coherent with insolation and points to strong nonlinearity in the way the climate system responded to orbital forcing before the onset of large scale Northern Hemisphere glaciation. After 3 Ma, stronger 41-k.y. cyclicity appears in the record. The shift in pattern is clearest around 2.85 Ma (according to the time scale proposed by Shackleton and others in 1990), 100-200 k.y. before the most dramatic spread of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. This indicates that high-latitude processes from this point on began to take over and influence most strongly the d18O record, which now reflects ice-volume fluctuations related to the climatic effects of obliquity forcing on the seasonality of high-latitude areas, most probably in the Northern Hemisphere. The general Pliocene trend is that high-latitude climate sensitivity and instability was increasing, and the causal factors producing the intensified glacial cyclicity during the Pliocene must be factors that enhance cooling and climate sensitivity in the subarctic areas.