25 resultados para Bias-Variance Trade-off
Resumo:
Ocean acidification (OA) caused by excessive CO2 is a potential ecological threat to marine organisms. The impacts of OA on echinoderms are well-documented, but there has been a strong bias towards sea urchins, and limited information is available on sea cucumbers. This work examined the effect of medium-term (60 days) exposure to three pH levels (pH 8.06, 7.72, and 7.41, covering present and future pH variability) on the bioenergetic responses of the sea cucumber, Apostichopus japonicus, an ecologically and economically important holothurian in Asian coasts. Results showed that the measured specific growth rate linearly decreased with decreased pH, leading to a 0.42 %/day decrease at pH 7.41 compared with that at pH 8.06. The impacts of pH on physiological energetics were variable: measured energy consumption and defecation rates linearly decreased with decreased pH, whereas maintenance energy in calculated respiration and excretion were not significantly affected. No shift in energy allocation pattern was observed in A. japonicus upon exposure to pH 7.72 compared with pH 8.06. However, a significant shift in energy budget occurred upon exposure to pH 7.41, leading to decreased energy intake and increased percentage of energy that was lost in feces, thereby resulting in a significantly lowered allocation into somatic growth. These findings indicate that adult A. japonicus is resilient to the OA scenario at the end of the twenty-first century, but further acidification may negatively influence the grazing capability and growth, thereby influencing its ecological functioning as an "ecosystem engineer" and potentially harming its culture output.
Resumo:
The stable isotope composition of planktonic foraminifera correlates with evidence for pulses of terrigenous sediment in a sediment core from the upper continental slope off northeastern Brazil. Stable oxygen isotope records of the planktonic foraminiferal species Globigerinoides sacculifer and Globigerinoides ruber (pink) reveal sub-Milankovitch changes in sea-surface hydrography during the last 85,000 yr. Warming of the surface water coincided with terrigenous sedimentation pulses that are inferred from high XRF intensities of Ti and Fe, and which suggest humid conditions in northeast Brazil. These tropical signals correlate with climatic oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles) and in sediment cores from the North Atlantic (Heinrich events). Trade winds may have caused changes in the North Brazil Current that altered heat and salt flux into the North Atlantic, thus affecting the growth and decay of the large glacial ice sheets.
Resumo:
Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge records of past sea surface temperatures (SST) derived from the alkenone Uk 37 index are used to reconstruct the surface circulation in the east equatorial South Atlantic for the last 200,000 years. Comparison of SST estimates from surface sediments between 5° and 20°S with modern SST data suggests that the alkenone temperatures represent annual mean values of the surface mixed layer. Alkenone-derived temperatures for the warm climatic maxima of the Holocene and the penultimate interglacial are 1 to 4°C higher than latest Holocene values. All records show glacial to interglacial differences of about 3.5°C in annual mean SST, which is about 1.5°C greater than the difference estimated by CLIMAP (1981) for the eastern Angola Basin. At the Walvis Ridge, significant SST variance is observed at all of the Earth's orbital periodicities. SST records from the Angola Basin vary predominantly at 23- and 100-kyr periodicities. For the precessional cycle, SST changes at the Walvis Ridge correspond to variations of boreal summer insolation over Africa and lead ice volume changes, suggesting that the east equatorial South Atlantic is sensitive to African monsoon intensity via trade-wind zonality. Angola Basin SST records lag those from the Walvis Ridge and the equatorial Atlantic by about 3 kyr. The comparison of Angola Basin and Walvis Ridge SST records implies that the Angola-Benguela Front (ABF) (currently at about 14-16°S) has remained fairly stationary between 12° and 20°S (the limits of our cores) during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. The temperature contrast associated with the ABF exhibits a periodic 23-kyr variability which is coherent with changes in boreal summer insolation over Africa. These observations suggest that surface waters north of the present ABF have not directly responded to monsoon-modulated changes in the trade-wind vector, that the central field of zonally directed trades in the southern hemisphere was not shifted or extended northward by several degrees of latitude during glacials, and that a cyclonic gyre circulation has existed in the east equatorial South Atlantic over the last 200,000 years. This scenario contradicts former assumptions of glacial intensification of the Benguela Current into the eastern Angola Basin and increased coastal upwelling off Angola.
Resumo:
The pollen record of three marine late Quaternary cores off Senegal shows a juxtaposition of Mediterranean, Northern Saharan, Central Saharan elements, which are considered transported by the trade winds from a winter-rainfall area, and Sahelian, Soudanese, Soudano-Guinean elements, considered transported both by winds and mostly by the Senegal River, and coming from the monsoonal, summer tropical rainfall area of southern West Africa. Littoral vegetation is either the edaphically dry and saline Chenopodiaceae from sebkhas at the time of the main regression, or the warm tropical humid mangrove with Rhizophora during the humid optimum period. Four stratigraphic zones reflect, from basis to top: Zone 4. A semi-arid period with a balanced pollen input. Zone 3. A very arid period with the disappearance of monsoonal pollen, probably from the disappearance of the Senegal River, a very saline littoral plain with Chenopodiaceae, a larger input of northern Saharan pollen from intensified trade winds. Zone 2. A quite humid period, much more so than today, very suddenly established, with a northward extension of the monsoonal areas, a rich littoral mangrove, and weakening of the trade winds. Zone l. A slow and steady evolution toward the present semi-humid conditions with regression of the mangrove, and of the monsoonal areas toward the south. Tentative datations and correlations with the Tchad area suggested: zone 4: 22,500 to 19,000 years BP; zone 3: 19,000 to 12,500 years BP; zone 2: 12,500 to 5,500 years BP; zone 1: 5,500 years BP to top of core. Dinoflagellate cysts display a tropical assemblage with mostly estuarine neritic elements and also a weak oceanic component, mostly in the lower slope core 47. Cosmopolitan taxa dominate the assemblage and only a few species point to more specialized environments. Quantitative variations of the assemblage are the basis of stratigraphy which is not similar to the pollen stratigraphy, and an inshore-outshore gradient has to be taken into account to correlate the three cores.
Resumo:
A 200 m long marine pollen record from ODP Site 658 (21°N, 19°W) reveals cyclic fluctuations in vegetation and continental climate in northwestern Africa from 3.7 to 1.7 Ma. These cycles parallel oxygen isotope stages. Prior to 3.5 Ma, the distribution of tropical forests and mangrove swamps reached Cape Blanc, 5°N of the present distribution. Between 3.5 and 2.6 Ma, forests occurred at this latitude during irregular intervals and nearly disappeared afterwards. Likewise, a Saharan paleoriver flowed continuously until isotope Stage 134 (3.35 Ma). When river discharge ceased, wind transport of pollen grains prevailed over fluvial transport. Pollen indicators of trade winds gradually increased between 3.3 and 2.5 Ma. A strong aridification of the climate of northwestern Africa occurred during isotope Stage 130 (3.26 Ma). Afterwards, humid conditions reestablised followed by another aridification around 2.7 Ma. Repetitive latitudinal shifts of vegetation zones ranging from wooded savanna to desert flora dominated for the first time between between 2.6 and 2.4 Ma as a response to the glacial stages 104, 100 and 98. Although climatic conditions, recorded in the Pliocene, were not as dry as those of the middle and Late Pleistocene, latitudinal vegetation shifts near the end of the Pliocene resembled those of the interglacial-glacial cycles of the Brunhes chron.
Resumo:
The deep-sea cores M 16415-2 and M 16416-2 at about 9°N off Sierra Leone were analysed palynologically for the time interval 140,000-70,000 yr B.P. Results were presented in absolute (pollen concentration and pollen influx) and relative diagrams (pollen percentage). In a previous study it was evidenced that in northwest Africa pollen is mainly transported to the Atlantic by wind, so that the efficiency of aeolian pollen transport (pollen flux) could be used to evaluate changes in the intensity of the northeast trade winds. The glacial episodes (represented by the oxygen isotope stages 6 and 4) are characterized by strong northeast trade winds, whereas the last interglacial (stage 5) is characterized by weak trade winds. The pollen influx diagram shows that the intensity of the trade winds increased slightly during the relatively cool intervals of stage 5 (viz. 5.4 and 5.2). Tropical forest had maximally expanded around 124,000 yr B.P. (stage 5.5), around 98,000 yr B.P. (transition of stage 5.3 to 5.2), and around 70,000 yr B.P. (first part of stage 4): an increasing delay of the response of tropical forest to global intervals with maximum temperature is apparent during the last interglacial. As tropical forests need continuous humidity, the record of tropical forest monitors changes in climatic humidity south of the Sahara. During the last interglacial, the southern boundary of the Sahara shifted only little: expansions and contractions of the tropical forest area are correlated with contra-oscillations of the grass-dominated savanna zone. Great latitudinal shifts of the desert savanna boundary, on the contrary, occurred during the penultimate glacial interglacial transition (around 128,000 yr B.P.) to the north, and during the last interglacial-glacial transition (around 65,000 yr B.P.) to the south.
Resumo:
Recent benthic foraminifera (> 125 µm) were investigated from multicorer samples on a latitudinal transect of 20 stations between 1°N and 32°S along the upper slope off West Africa. Samples were selected from a narrow water depth interval, between 1200 and 1500 m, so that changes in water masses are minimized, but changes in surface productivity are important and the only significant environmental variable. Live (Rose Bengal stained) benthic foraminifera were counted from the surface sediment down to a maximum of 12 cm. Dead foraminifera were investigated in the top 5 cm of the sediment only. Five live and five dead benthic foraminiferal assemblages were identified using Q-mode principal component analysis, matching distinct primary productivity provinces, characterized by different systems of seasonal and permanent upwelling. Differences in seasonality, quantity, and quality of food supply are the main controlling parameters on species composition and distribution of the benthic foraminiferal faunas. To test the sensitivity of foraminiferal studies based on the uppermost centimeter of sediment only, a comparative Q-mode principal component analysis was conducted on live and dead foraminiferal data from the top 1 cm of sediment. It has been demonstrated that, on the upper slope off West Africa, most of the environmental signals as recorded by species composition and distribution of the 'total' live and dead assemblages, i.e., including live and dead foraminifera from the surface sediment down to 12 cm and 5 cm, respectively, can be extracted from the assemblages in the top centimeter of sediment only. On the contrary, subsurface abundance maxima of live foraminifera and dissolution of empty tests strongly bias quantitative approaches based on the calculation of standing stocks and foraminiferal numbers in the topmost centimeter.
Resumo:
The high-productive upwelling area off Morocco is part of one of the four major trade-wind driven continental margin upwelling zones in the world oceans. While coastal upwelling occurs mostly on the shelf, biogenic particles derived from upwelling are deposited mostly at the upper continental slope. Nutrient-rich coastal water is transported within the Cape Ghir filament region at 30°N up to several hundreds of kilometers offshore. Both upwelling intensity and filament activity are dependent on the strength of the summer Trades. This study is aimed to reconstruct changes in trade wind intensity over the last 250,000 years by the analysis of the productivity signal contained in the sedimentary biogenic particles of the continental slope and beneath the Cape Ghir filament. Detailed geochemical and geophysical analyses (TOC, carbonate, C/N, delta13Corg, delta15N, delta13C of benthic foraminifera, delta18O of benthic and planktic foraminifera, magnetic susceptibility) have been carried out at two sites on the upper continental slope and one site located further offshore influenced by the Cape Ghir filament. A second offshore site south of the filament was analyzed (TOC, magnetic susceptibility) to distinguish the productivity signal related to the filament signal from the general offshore variability. Higher productivity during glacial times was observed at all four sites. However, the variability of productivity during glacial times was remarkably different at the filament-influenced site compared to the upwelling-influenced continental slope sites. In addition to climate-related changes in upwelling intensity, zonal shifts of the upwelling area due to sea-level changes have impacted the sedimentary productivity record, especially at the continental slope sites. By comparison with other proxies related to the strength and direction of the prevailing winds (Si/Al ratio as grain-size indicator, pollen) the productivity record at the filament-influenced site reflects mainly changes in trade-wind intensity. Our reconstruction reveals that especially during glacial times trade-wind intensity was increased and showed a strong variability with frequencies related to precession.