Illusory predictors: Generalizability of findings in cocaine treatment retention research.

Treatment retention is of paramount importance in cocaine treatment research as treatment completion rates are often 50% or less. Failure to retain cocaine patients in treatment has both significant research and clinical implications. In this paper we qualitatively and quantitatively demonstrate the inconsistency found across analyses of retention predictors in order to highlight the problem. First, a qualitative review of the published literature was undertaken to identify the frequency of predictors studied and their relations to treatment retention. Second, an empirical demonstration of predictor stability was conducted by testing a common set of variables across three similar 12-week cocaine clinical trials conducted by the same investigators in the same research clinic within a five-year period. Results of the literature review indicated inconsistently selected variables of convenience, widely varying statistical procedures, and discrepant findings of significance. Further, quantitative analyses resulted in discrepancies in variables identified as significant predictors of retention among the three studies. Potential sources of heterogeneity affecting the consistency of findings across studies and recommendations to improve the validity and generalizability of predictor findings in future studies are proposed.

Design and implementation of a multicriteria medical decision support system for diagnosis and treatment

Health care providers face the problem of trying to make decisions with inadequate information and also with an overload of (often contradictory) information. Physicians often choose treatment long before they know which disease is present. Indeed, uncertainty is intrinsic to the practice of medicine. Decision analysis can help physicians structure and work through a medical decision problem, and can provide reassurance that decisions are rational and consistent with the beliefs and preferences of other physicians and patients. ^ The primary purpose of this research project is to develop the theory, methods, techniques and tools necessary for designing and implementing a system to support solving medical decision problems. A case study involving “abdominal pain” serves as a prototype for implementing the system. The research, however, focuses on a generic class of problems and aims at covering theoretical as well as practical aspects of the system developed. ^ The main contributions of this research are: (1) bridging the gap between the statistical approach and the knowledge-based (expert) approach to medical decision making; (2) linking a collection of methods, techniques and tools together to allow for the design of a medical decision support system, based on a framework that involves the Analytic Network Process (ANP), the generalization of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to dependence and feedback, for problems involving diagnosis and treatment; (3) enhancing the representation and manipulation of uncertainty in the ANP framework by incorporating group consensus weights; and (4) developing a computer program to assist in the implementation of the system. ^

Blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal changes in total cortex and subcortex, pain, reward, and vigilance regions during mechanical pressure pain after morphine administration

Morphine is the most common clinical choice in the management of severe pain. Although the molecular mechanisms of morphine have already been characterized, the cerebral circuits by which it attenuates the sensation of pain have not yet been studied in humans. The objective of this two-arm (morphine versus placebo), between-subjects study was to examine whether morphine affects pain via pain-related cortical circuits, but also via reward regions that relate to the motivational state, as well as prefrontal regions that relate to vigilance as a result of morphine's sedative effects. Cortical activity was measured by the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal changes using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). ^ The novelty of this study is at three levels: (i) to develop a methodology that will assess the average BOLD signal across subjects for the pain, reward, and vigilance cortical systems; (ii) to examine whether the reward and/or sedative effects of morphine are contributing factors to cortical regions associated with the motivational state and vigilance; and (iii) to propose a neuroanatomical model related to the opioid-sensitive effects of reward and sedation as a function of cortical activity related to pain in an effort to assess future analgesics. ^ Consistent with our hypotheses, our findings showed that the decrease in total pain-related volume activated between the post- and the pre-treatment morphine group was about 78%, while the post-treatment placebo group displayed only a 5% decrease when compared to pre-treatment levels of activation. The volume increase in reward regions was 451% in the post-treatment compared to the pre-treatment morphine condition. Finally, the volumetric decrease in vigilance regions was 63% in the posttreatment compared to the pre-treatment morphine condition. ^ These findings imply that changes in the blood flow of the reward and vigilance regions may be contributing factors in producing the analgesic effect under morphine administration. Future studies need to replicate this study in a higher resolution fMRI environment and to assess the proposed neuroanatomical model in patient populations. The necessity of pain research is apparent, since pain cuts across different diseases especially chronic ones, and thus, is recognized as a vital public health developing area. ^

Continuous safety screens for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information

Standard methods for testing safety data are needed to ensure the safe conduct of clinical trials. In particular, objective rules for reliably identifying unsafe treatments need to be put into place to help protect patients from unnecessary harm. DMCs are uniquely qualified to evaluate accumulating unblinded data and make recommendations about the continuing safe conduct of a trial. However, it is the trial leadership who must make the tough ethical decision about stopping a trial, and they could benefit from objective statistical rules that help them judge the strength of evidence contained in the blinded data. We design early stopping rules for harm that act as continuous safety screens for randomized controlled clinical trials with blinded treatment information, which could be used by anyone, including trial investigators (and trial leadership). A Bayesian framework, with emphasis on the likelihood function, is used to allow for continuous monitoring without adjusting for multiple comparisons. Close collaboration between the statistician and the clinical investigators will be needed in order to design safety screens with good operating characteristics. Though the math underlying this procedure may be computationally intensive, implementation of the statistical rules will be easy and the continuous screening provided will give suitably early warning when real problems were to emerge. Trial investigators and trial leadership need these safety screens to help them to effectively monitor the ongoing safe conduct of clinical trials with blinded data.^

Hypotensive resuscitation versus standard fluid resuscitation for the management of trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock: The safety phase of a randomized controlled trial

Trauma is a leading cause of death worldwide, and is thus a major public health concern. Improving current resuscitation strategies may help to reduce morbidity and mortality from trauma, and clinical research plays an important role in addressing these issues. This thesis is a secondary analysis of data that was collected for a randomized clinical trial being conducted at Ben Taub General Hospital. The trial is designed to compare a hypotensive resuscitation strategy to standard fluid resuscitation for the early treatment of trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock. This thesis examines the clinical outcomes from the first 90 subjects enrolled in the study, with the primary aim of assessing the safety of hypotensive resuscitation within the trauma population. ^ Patients in hemorrhagic shock who required emergent surgery were randomized to one of two arms of the study. Those in the experimental (LMAP) arm were managed with a hypotensive resuscitation strategy in which the target mean arterial pressure was 50mmHg. Those in the control (HMAP) arm were managed with standard fluid resuscitation to a target mean arterial pressure of 65mmHg. Patients were followed for 30 days. Mortality, post-operative complications, and other clinical data were prospectively gathered by the Ben Taub surgical staff and then secondarily analyzed for the purpose of this thesis.^ Subjects in the LMAP group had significantly lower early post-operative mortality compared to those in the HMAP group. 30-day mortality was also lower in the LMAP group, although this did not reach statistical significance. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups with regards to development of ischemic, hematologic or infectious complications, length of hospitalization, length of ICU stay or duration of mechanical ventilation. ^ Based upon the data presented in this thesis, it appears that hypotensive resuscitation is a safe strategy for use in the trauma population. Specifically, hypotensive resuscitation reduced the risk of early post-operative death from coagulopathic bleeding and did not result in an increased risk of ischemic or other post-operative complications. The preliminary results described in this thesis provide convincing evidence support the continued investigation and use of hypotensive resuscitation in a trauma setting.^

Quantitative comparison of late effects following photon versus proton external-beam radiation therapies: Toward an evidence-based approach to selecting a treatment modality

Radiation therapy has been used as an effective treatment for malignancies in pediatric patients. However, in many cases, the side effects of radiation diminish these patients’ quality of life. In order to develop strategies to minimize radiogenic complications, one must first quantitatively estimate pediatric patients’ relative risk for radiogenic late effects, which has not become feasible till recently because of the calculational complexity. The goals of this work were to calculate the dose delivered to tissues and organs in pediatric patients during contemporary photon and proton radiotherapies; to estimate the corresponding risk of radiogenic second cancer and cardiac toxicity based on the calculated doses and on dose-risk models from the literature; to test for the statistical significance of the difference between predicted risks after photon versus proton radiotherapies; and to provide a prototype of an evidence-based approach to selecting treatment modalities for pediatric patients, taking second cancer and cardiac toxicity into account. The results showed that proton therapy confers a lower predicted risk of radiogenic second cancer, and lower risks of radiogenic cardiac toxicities, compared to photon therapy. An uncertainty analysis revealed that the qualitative findings of this study are insensitive to changes in a wide variety of host and treatment related factors.

Nonpurging binge eaters versus nonbinge eaters and treatment retention for adult obesity

Dropout from obesity treatment has been a major factor associated with weight control failure, with few reliable predictors of dropouts or completers. Previous studies have tended to treat obese people as a homogeneous group with standard behavior modification-based interventions. Current research indicates there may be subgroups within the obese population, binge eaters and nonbinge eaters, who have different dropout rates. Current studies also recommend focusing on the subset of this subgroup that does not engage in purging (vomiting, laxative abuse, or excessive exercise) to compensate for binge eating. This research uses a secondary dataset (N = 156) from a prospective study in which participants were randomized to a Food Dependency (FD) and a Behavioral Self-Management (BSM) group for weight reduction. Criteria for subjects in the original study included (1) scoring higher on the existing Binge Eating Scale (BES) in order to ensure enrollment of more binge eaters and (2) no compensatory purging behavior for binge eating. Subjects were then reclassified in this study as binge eaters or nonbinge eaters using the more stringent proposed 1994 DSM-IV criteria for Binge Eating Disorder (BED). Subjects were followed for dropout. Variables studied were binge status, age at obesity onset, age at study baseline, class instructor, number of previous weight loss attempts, race, marital status, body mass index (BMI kg/m$\sp2$), type of intervention, work status, educational level, and social support. Stepwise backward regression Cox survival analysis indicated binge status had a consistent, statistically significant protective effect on dropout in which binge eaters were half as likely to dropout versus nonbinge eaters (p = 0.04). Cox proportional hazards analysis indicated no statistical difference in dropout by type of intervention (FD, p = 0.13; BSM, p = 0.80) when controlling for binge status. All other variables did not reach significance, which is consistent with the literature. Implications of these findings suggest that (1) the proposed 1994 DSM-IV criteria for BED is a more useful classification that the existing DSM-III-R criteria, and (2) the identification of subgroups among obese subjects is an important step in dropout and weight loss intervention research. Future research can confirm this finding. ^

An outbreak of Multi-Drug Resistant Acinetobacter in the burn intensive care unit of a large tertiary care center

Risk factors for Multi-Drug Resistant Acinetobacter (MDRA) acquisition were studied in patients in a burn intensive care unit (ICU) where there was an outbreak of MDRA. Forty cases were matched with eighty controls based on length of stay in the Burn ICU and statistical analysis was performed on data for several different variables. Matched analysis showed that mechanical ventilation, transport ventilation, number of intubations, number of bronchoscopy procedures, total body surface area burn, and prior Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus colonization were all significant risk factors for MDRA acquisition. ^ MDRA remains a significant threat to the burn population. Treatment for burn patients with MDRA is challenging as resistance to antibiotics continues to increase. This study underlined the need to closely monitor the most critically ill ventilated patients during an outbreak of MDRA as they are the most at risk for MDRA acquisition.^

A Pre-Clinical Assessment of Minocycline for Treatment of Chronic Neuropathic Pain after Spinal Cord Injury

Patients living with a spinal cord injury (SCI) often develop chronic neuropathic pain (CNP). Unfortunately, the clinically approved, current standard of treatment, gabapentin, only provides temporary pain relief. This treatment can cause numerous adverse side effects that negatively affect the daily lives of SCI patients. There is a great need for alternative, effective treatments for SCI-dependent CNP. Minocycline, an FDA-approved antibiotic, has been widely prescribed for the treatment of acne for several decades. However, recent studies demonstrate that minocycline has neuroprotective properties in several pre-clinical rodent models of CNS trauma and disease. Pre-clinical studies also show that short-term minocycline treatment can prevent the onset of CNP when delivered during the acute stage of SCI and can also transiently attenuate established CNP when delivered briefly during the chronic stage of SCI. However, the potential to abolish or attenuate CNP via long-term administration of minocycline after SCI is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential efficacy and safety of long-term administration of minocycline to abolish or attenuate CNP following SCI. A severe spinal contusion injury was administered on adult, male, Sprague-Dawley rats. At day 29 post-injury, I initiated a three-week treatment regimen of daily administration with minocycline (50 mg/kg), gabapentin (50 mg/kg) or saline. The minocycline treatment group demonstrated a significant reduction in below-level mechanical allodynia and above- level hyperalgesia while on their treatment regimen. After a ten-day washout period of minocycline, the animals continued to demonstrate a significant reduction in below-level mechanical allodynia and above-level hyperalgesia. However, minocycline-treated animals exhibited abnormal weight gain and hepatotoxicity compared to gapabentin-treated or vehicle-treated subjects.The results support previous findings that minocycline can attenuate CNP after SCI and suggested that minocycline can also attenuate CNP via long-term delivery of minocycline after SCI (36). The data also suggested that minocycline had a lasting effect at reducing pain symptoms. However, the adverse side effects of long-term use of minocycline should not be ignored in the rodent model. Gabapentin treatment caused a significant decrease in below-level mechanical allodynia and below-level hyperalgesia during the treatment regimen. Because gabapentin treatment has an analgesic effect at the concentration I administered, the results were expected. However, I also found that gabapentin-treated animals demonstrated a sustained reduction in pain ten days after treatment withdrawal. This result was unexpected because gabapentin has a short half-life of 1.7 hours in rodents and previous studies have demonstrated that pre-drug pain levels return shortly after withdrawal of treatment. Additionally, the gabapentin-treated animals demonstrated a significant and sustained increase in rearing events compared with all other treatment groups which suggested that gabapentin treatment was not only capable of reducing pain long-term but may also significantly improve trunk stability or improve motor function recovery.

Role of TRP Channels in Mediating the Calcium Signaling Response of Brain Endothelial Cells to Mechanical Stretch

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) often results in disruption of the blood brain barrier (BBB), which is an integral component to maintaining the central nervous system homeostasis. Recently cytosolic calcium levels ([Ca2+]i), observed to elevate following TBI, have been shown to influence endothelial barrier integrity. However, the mechanism by which TBI-induced calcium signaling alters the endothelial barrier remains unknown. In the present study, an in vitro BBB model was utilized to address this issue. Exposure of cells to biaxial mechanical stretch, in the range expected for TBI, resulted in a rapid cytosolic calcium increase. Modulation of intracellular and extracellular Ca2+ reservoirs indicated that Ca2+ influx is the major contributor for the [Ca2+]i elevation. Application of pharmacological inhibitors was used to identify the calcium-permeable channels involved in the stretch-induced Ca2+ influx. Antagonist of transient receptor potential (TRP) channel subfamilies, TRPC and TRPP, demonstrated a reduction of the stretch-induced Ca2+ influx. RNA silencing directed at individual TRP channel subtypes revealed that TRPC1 and TRPP2 largely mediate the stretch-induced Ca2+ response. In addition, we found that nitric oxide (NO) levels increased as a result of mechanical stretch, and that inhibition of TRPC1 and TRPP2 abolished the elevated NO synthesis. Further, as myosin light chain (MLC) phosphorylation and actin cytoskeleton rearrangement are correlated with endothelial barrier disruption, we investigated the effect mechanical stretch had on the myosin-actin cytoskeleton. We found that phosphorylated MLC was increased significantly by 10 minutes post-stretch, and that inhibition of TRP channel activity or NO synthesis both abolished this effect. In addition, actin stress fibers formation significantly increased 2 minutes post-stretch, and was abolished by treatment with TRP channel inhibitors. These results suggest that, in brain endothelial cells, TRPC1 and TRPP2 are activated by TBI-mechanical stress and initiate actin-myosin contraction, which may lead to disruption of the BBB.

COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATION-BASED IMRT QA USING R&V DATA, TREATMENT RECORDS, AND A SECOND TREATMENT PLANNING SYSTEM

Purpose: Traditional patient-specific IMRT QA measurements are labor intensive and consume machine time. Calculation-based IMRT QA methods typically are not comprehensive. We have developed a comprehensive calculation-based IMRT QA method to detect uncertainties introduced by the initial dose calculation, the data transfer through the Record-and-Verify (R&V) system, and various aspects of the physical delivery. Methods: We recomputed the treatment plans in the patient geometry for 48 cases using data from the R&V, and from the delivery unit to calculate the “as-transferred” and “as-delivered” doses respectively. These data were sent to the original TPS to verify transfer and delivery or to a second TPS to verify the original calculation. For each dataset we examined the dose computed from the R&V record (RV) and from the delivery records (Tx), and the dose computed with a second verification TPS (vTPS). Each verification dose was compared to the clinical dose distribution using 3D gamma analysis and by comparison of mean dose and ROI-specific dose levels to target volumes. Plans were also compared to IMRT QA absolute and relative dose measurements. Results: The average 3D gamma passing percentages using 3%-3mm, 2%-2mm, and 1%-1mm criteria for the RV plan were 100.0 (σ=0.0), 100.0 (σ=0.0), and 100.0 (σ=0.1); for the Tx plan they were 100.0 (σ=0.0), 100.0 (σ=0.0), and 99.0 (σ=1.4); and for the vTPS plan they were 99.3 (σ=0.6), 97.2 (σ=1.5), and 79.0 (σ=8.6). When comparing target volume doses in the RV, Tx, and vTPS plans to the clinical plans, the average ratios of ROI mean doses were 0.999 (σ=0.001), 1.001 (σ=0.002), and 0.990 (σ=0.009) and ROI-specific dose levels were 0.999 (σ=0.001), 1.001 (σ=0.002), and 0.980 (σ=0.043), respectively. Comparing the clinical, RV, TR, and vTPS calculated doses to the IMRT QA measurements for all 48 patients, the average ratios for absolute doses were 0.999 (σ=0.013), 0.998 (σ=0.013), 0.999 σ=0.015), and 0.990 (σ=0.012), respectively, and the average 2D gamma(5%-3mm) passing percentages for relative doses for 9 patients was were 99.36 (σ=0.68), 99.50 (σ=0.49), 99.13 (σ=0.84), and 98.76 (σ=1.66), respectively. Conclusions: Together with mechanical and dosimetric QA, our calculation-based IMRT QA method promises to minimize the need for patient-specific QA measurements by identifying outliers in need of further review.

A hybrid method in combining treatment effects from matched and unmatched studies

In the biomedical studies, the general data structures have been the matched (paired) and unmatched designs. Recently, many researchers are interested in Meta-Analysis to obtain a better understanding from several clinical data of a medical treatment. The hybrid design, which is combined two data structures, may create the fundamental question for statistical methods and the challenges for statistical inferences. The applied methods are depending on the underlying distribution. If the outcomes are normally distributed, we would use the classic paired and two independent sample T-tests on the matched and unmatched cases. If not, we can apply Wilcoxon signed rank and rank sum test on each case. ^ To assess an overall treatment effect on a hybrid design, we can apply the inverse variance weight method used in Meta-Analysis. On the nonparametric case, we can use a test statistic which is combined on two Wilcoxon test statistics. However, these two test statistics are not in same scale. We propose the Hybrid Test Statistic based on the Hodges-Lehmann estimates of the treatment effects, which are medians in the same scale.^ To compare the proposed method, we use the classic meta-analysis T-test statistic on the combined the estimates of the treatment effects from two T-test statistics. Theoretically, the efficiency of two unbiased estimators of a parameter is the ratio of their variances. With the concept of Asymptotic Relative Efficiency (ARE) developed by Pitman, we show ARE of the hybrid test statistic relative to classic meta-analysis T-test statistic using the Hodges-Lemann estimators associated with two test statistics.^ From several simulation studies, we calculate the empirical type I error rate and power of the test statistics. The proposed statistic would provide effective tool to evaluate and understand the treatment effect in various public health studies as well as clinical trials.^

Analysis of interval -censored events in hypertension studies: Evaluation of treatment of coronary heart disease

Many statistical studies feature data with both exact-time and interval-censored events. While a number of methods currently exist to handle interval-censored events and multivariate exact-time events separately, few techniques exist to deal with their combination. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for analyzing a multivariate endpoint comprised of a single interval-censored event plus an arbitrary number of exact-time events. The approach fuses the exact-time events, modeled using the marginal method of Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld, with a piecewise-exponential interval-censored component. The resulting model incorporates more of the information in the data and also removes some of the biases associated with the exclusion of interval-censored events. A simulation study demonstrates that our approach produces reliable estimates for the model parameters and their variance-covariance matrix. As a real-world data example, we apply this technique to the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program (SHEP) clinical trial, which features three correlated events: clinical non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal myocardial infarction (two exact-time events), and silent myocardial infarction (one interval-censored event). ^