Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Bayesian Adaptive Designs for Early Phase Clinical Trials

My dissertation focuses mainly on Bayesian adaptive designs for phase I and phase II clinical trials. It includes three specific topics: (1) proposing a novel two-dimensional dose-finding algorithm for biological agents, (2) developing Bayesian adaptive screening designs to provide more efficient and ethical clinical trials, and (3) incorporating missing late-onset responses to make an early stopping decision. Treating patients with novel biological agents is becoming a leading trend in oncology. Unlike cytotoxic agents, for which toxicity and efficacy monotonically increase with dose, biological agents may exhibit non-monotonic patterns in their dose-response relationships. Using a trial with two biological agents as an example, we propose a phase I/II trial design to identify the biologically optimal dose combination (BODC), which is defined as the dose combination of the two agents with the highest efficacy and tolerable toxicity. A change-point model is used to reflect the fact that the dose-toxicity surface of the combinational agents may plateau at higher dose levels, and a flexible logistic model is proposed to accommodate the possible non-monotonic pattern for the dose-efficacy relationship. During the trial, we continuously update the posterior estimates of toxicity and efficacy and assign patients to the most appropriate dose combination. We propose a novel dose-finding algorithm to encourage sufficient exploration of untried dose combinations in the two-dimensional space. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed design has desirable operating characteristics in identifying the BODC under various patterns of dose-toxicity and dose-efficacy relationships. Trials of combination therapies for the treatment of cancer are playing an increasingly important role in the battle against this disease. To more efficiently handle the large number of combination therapies that must be tested, we propose a novel Bayesian phase II adaptive screening design to simultaneously select among possible treatment combinations involving multiple agents. Our design is based on formulating the selection procedure as a Bayesian hypothesis testing problem in which the superiority of each treatment combination is equated to a single hypothesis. During the trial conduct, we use the current values of the posterior probabilities of all hypotheses to adaptively allocate patients to treatment combinations. Simulation studies show that the proposed design substantially outperforms the conventional multi-arm balanced factorial trial design. The proposed design yields a significantly higher probability for selecting the best treatment while at the same time allocating substantially more patients to efficacious treatments. The proposed design is most appropriate for the trials combining multiple agents and screening out the efficacious combination to be further investigated. The proposed Bayesian adaptive phase II screening design substantially outperformed the conventional complete factorial design. Our design allocates more patients to better treatments while at the same time providing higher power to identify the best treatment at the end of the trial. Phase II trial studies usually are single-arm trials which are conducted to test the efficacy of experimental agents and decide whether agents are promising to be sent to phase III trials. Interim monitoring is employed to stop the trial early for futility to avoid assigning unacceptable number of patients to inferior treatments. We propose a Bayesian single-arm phase II design with continuous monitoring for estimating the response rate of the experimental drug. To address the issue of late-onset responses, we use a piece-wise exponential model to estimate the hazard function of time to response data and handle the missing responses using the multiple imputation approach. We evaluate the operating characteristics of the proposed method through extensive simulation studies. We show that the proposed method reduces the total length of the trial duration and yields desirable operating characteristics for different physician-specified lower bounds of response rate with different true response rates.

Optimal, minimax, and Bayesian two-stage designs in two-dose phase II clinical trials

Background: For most cytotoxic and biologic anti-cancer agents, the response rate of the drug is commonly assumed to be non-decreasing with an increasing dose. However, an increasing dose does not always result in an appreciable increase in the response rate. This may especially be true at high doses for a biologic agent. Therefore, in a phase II trial the investigators may be interested in testing the anti-tumor activity of a drug at more than one (often two) doses, instead of only at the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). This way, when the lower dose appears equally effective, this dose can be recommended for further confirmatory testing in a phase III trial under potential long-term toxicity and cost considerations. A common approach to designing such a phase II trial has been to use an independent (e.g., Simon's two-stage) design at each dose ignoring the prior knowledge about the ordering of the response probabilities at the different doses. However, failure to account for this ordering constraint in estimating the response probabilities may result in an inefficient design. In this dissertation, we developed extensions of Simon's optimal and minimax two-stage designs, including both frequentist and Bayesian methods, for two doses that assume ordered response rates between doses. ^ Methods: Optimal and minimax two-stage designs are proposed for phase II clinical trials in settings where the true response rates at two dose levels are ordered. We borrow strength between doses using isotonic regression and control the joint and/or marginal error probabilities. Bayesian two-stage designs are also proposed under a stochastic ordering constraint. ^ Results: Compared to Simon's designs, when controlling the power and type I error at the same levels, the proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs reduce the maximum and expected sample sizes. Most of the proposed designs also increase the probability of early termination when the true response rates are poor. ^ Conclusion: Proposed frequentist and Bayesian designs are superior to Simon's designs in terms of operating characteristics (expected sample size and probability of early termination, when the response rates are poor) Thus, the proposed designs lead to more cost-efficient and ethical trials, and may consequently improve and expedite the drug discovery process. The proposed designs may be extended to designs of multiple group trials and drug combination trials.^

Modern approaches to pediatric brain injury therapy.

Each year, pediatric traumatic brain injury (TBI) accounts for 435,000 emergency department visits, 37,000 hospital admissions, and approximately 2,500 deaths in the United States. TBI results in immediate injury from direct mechanical force and shear. Secondary injury results from the release of biochemical or inflammatory factors that alter the loco-regional milieu in the acute, subacute, and delayed intervals after a mechanical insult. Preliminary preclinical and clinical research is underway to evaluate the benefit from progenitor cell therapeutics, hypertonic saline infusion, and controlled hypothermia. However, all phase III clinical trials investigating pharmacologic monotherapy for TBI have shown no benefit. A recent National Institutes of Health consensus statement recommends research into multimodality treatments for TBI. This article will review the complex pathophysiology of TBI as well as the possible therapeutic mechanisms of progenitor cell transplantation, hypertonic saline infusion, and controlled hypothermia for possible utilization in multimodality clinical trials.

A quality of life subscale for terminally ill cancer patients

A subscale was developed to assess the quality of life of cancer patients with a life expectancy of six months or less. Phase I of this study identified the major concerns of 74 terminally ill cancer patients (19 with breast cancer, 19 with lung cancer, 18 with colorectal cancer, 9 with renal cell cancer, 9 with prostate cancer), 39 family caregivers, and 20 health care professionals. Patients interviewed were being treated at the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center or at the Hospice at the Texas Medical Center in Houston. In Phase II, 120 patients (30 with breast cancer, 30 with lung cancer, 30 with colorectal cancer, 15 with prostate cancer, and 15 with renal cell cancer) rated the importance of these concerns for quality of life. Items retained for the subscale were rated as "extremely important" or "very important" by at least 60% of the sample and were reported as being applicable by at least two-thirds of the sample. The 61 concerns that were identified were formatted as a questionnaire for Phase III. In Phase III, 356 patients (89 with breast cancer, 88 with lung cancer, 88 with colorectal cancer, 44 with prostate cancer, and 47 with renal cell cancer) were interviewed to determine the subscale's reliability and sensitivity to change in clinical status. Both factor analysis and item response theory supported the inclusion of the same 35 items for the subscale. Internal consistency reliability was moderate to high for the subscale's domains: spiritual (0.87), existential (0.76), medical care (0.68), symptoms (0.67), social/family (0.66), and emotional (0.61). Test-retest correlation coefficients also were high for the domains: social/family (0.86), emotional (0.83), medical care (0.83), spiritual (0.75), existential (0.75), and symptoms (0.81).^ In addition, concurrent validity was supported by the high correlation between the subscale's symptom domain and symptom items from the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) scale (r = 0.74). Patients' functional status was assessed with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance status rating. When ECOG categories were compared to subscale domains, patients who scored lower in functional status had lower scores in the spiritual, existential, social/family, and emotional domains. Patients who scored lower in physical well-being had higher scores in the symptom domain. Patient scores in the medical care domain were similar for each ECOG category. The results of this study support the subscale's use in assessing quality of life and the outcomes of palliative treatment for cancer patients in their last six months of life. ^

Perspective transformation: Women in long-term recovery from alcohol abuse

Objective. The purpose of this study was to determine the meaning of personal transformation for twenty women in long term, stable recovery from alcohol abuse; to identify themes or patterns of this recovery, and; to determine the extent to which they experienced the phenomenon of perspective transformation. ^ Method. Volunteers were recruited by advertisement, word of mouth, and through a closed circuit web based broadcast. A descriptive, exploratory study, which analyzed perspective transformation from the standpoint of five action phases, was conducted. Data was collected using in-depth personal interviews and questionnaires. Subjects' responses were analyzed by qualitative methods. Triangulation was performed on the grouped data comparing the interviews to the data produced by the questionnaires. Quantitative analysis of questionnaire items explored behavioral changes experienced before and after alcoholism recovery. ^ Results. Five phases of recovery were identified. Phase I which involved recognition that alcohol was a problem and change might be possible took several years during which 3 major transitions occurred: (1) from often being alienated to having relationships with family and friends; (2) from daily upheavals to eventually a more peaceful existence, and; (3) from denial that alcohol was a problem to acceptance and willingness to change. Recovery was often seen in a spiritual context, which also required ongoing support. During Phase II there was an assessment of self, others, and the environment which revealed a pattern of intense unhappiness and negative feelings toward self and others with a disregard for cultural norms. Phase III revealed a period of desperation as life became unmanageable, but gradual willingness to accept support and guidance and a desire to improve self and help others. This led to improvement of existing role performance and the willingness to try out new roles. In Phase IV there was a pattern of personal growth which included: the establishment of boundaries, setting priorities, a willingness to place others' needs above their own, acceptance of responsibility, and learning to cope without alcohol, often with the use of tools learned in AA. During Phase V, many experienced knowledge of frailties but growing respect for self and others, with an improved ability to function in giving relationships. Implications for Prevention and Recovery: Early education concerning addiction and recovery may play a crucial role in prevention and early recovery, as it did for children of women in this study. Recovery requires persistent effort and organized support. ^

TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: SMALL-VOLUME INFUSION PUMPS

"Technology assessment is a comprehensive form of policy research that examines the short- and long-term social consequences of the application or use of technology" (US Congress 1967).^ This study explored a research methodology appropriate for technology assessment (TA) within the health industry. The case studied was utilization of external Small-Volume Infusion Pumps (SVIP) at a cancer treatment and research center. Primary and secondary data were collected in three project phases. In Phase I, hospital prescription records (N = 14,979) represented SVIP adoption and utilization for the years 1982-1984. The Candidate Adoption-Use (CA-U) diffusion paradigm developed for this study was germane. Compared to classic and unorthodox curves, CA-U more accurately simulated empiric experience. The hospital SVIP 1983-1984 trends denoted assurance in prescribing chemotherapy and concomitant balloon SVIP efficacy and efficiency. Abandonment of battery pumps was predicted while exponential demand for balloon SVIP was forecast for 1985-1987. In Phase II, patients using SVIP (N = 117) were prospectively surveyed from July to October 1984; the data represented a single episode of therapy. The questionnaire and indices, specifically designed to measure the impact of SVIP, evinced face validity. Compeer group data were from pre-SVIP case reviews rather than from an inpatient sample. Statistically significant results indicated that outpatients using SVIP interacted socially more than inpatients using the alternative technology. Additionally, the hospital's education program effectively taught clients to discriminate between self care and professional SVIP services. In these contexts, there was sufficient evidence that the alternative technology restricted patients activity whereas SVIP permitted patients to function more independently and in a social lifestyle, thus adding quality to life. In Phase III, diffusion forecast and patient survey findings were combined with direct observation of clinic services to profile some economic dimensions of SVIP. These three project phases provide a foundation for executing: (1) cost effectiveness analysis of external versus internal infusors, (2) institutional resource allocation, and (3) technology deployment to epidemiology-significant communities. The models and methods tested in this research of clinical technology assessment are innovative and do assess biotechnology. ^

A simulation study using the hybrid statistic and the meta-analysis t-test for data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials

An interim analysis is usually applied in later phase II or phase III trials to find convincing evidence of a significant treatment difference that may lead to trial termination at an earlier point than planned at the beginning. This can result in the saving of patient resources and shortening of drug development and approval time. In addition, ethics and economics are also the reasons to stop a trial earlier. In clinical trials of eyes, ears, knees, arms, kidneys, lungs, and other clustered treatments, data may include distribution-free random variables with matched and unmatched subjects in one study. It is important to properly include both subjects in the interim and the final analyses so that the maximum efficiency of statistical and clinical inferences can be obtained at different stages of the trials. So far, no publication has applied a statistical method for distribution-free data with matched and unmatched subjects in the interim analysis of clinical trials. In this simulation study, the hybrid statistic was used to estimate the empirical powers and the empirical type I errors among the simulated datasets with different sample sizes, different effect sizes, different correlation coefficients for matched pairs, and different data distributions, respectively, in the interim and final analysis with 4 different group sequential methods. Empirical powers and empirical type I errors were also compared to those estimated by using the meta-analysis t-test among the same simulated datasets. Results from this simulation study show that, compared to the meta-analysis t-test commonly used for data with normally distributed observations, the hybrid statistic has a greater power for data observed from normally, log-normally, and multinomially distributed random variables with matched and unmatched subjects and with outliers. Powers rose with the increase in sample size, effect size, and correlation coefficient for the matched pairs. In addition, lower type I errors were observed estimated by using the hybrid statistic, which indicates that this test is also conservative for data with outliers in the interim analysis of clinical trials.^

Hypotensive resuscitation versus standard fluid resuscitation for the management of trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock: The safety phase of a randomized controlled trial

Trauma is a leading cause of death worldwide, and is thus a major public health concern. Improving current resuscitation strategies may help to reduce morbidity and mortality from trauma, and clinical research plays an important role in addressing these issues. This thesis is a secondary analysis of data that was collected for a randomized clinical trial being conducted at Ben Taub General Hospital. The trial is designed to compare a hypotensive resuscitation strategy to standard fluid resuscitation for the early treatment of trauma patients in hemorrhagic shock. This thesis examines the clinical outcomes from the first 90 subjects enrolled in the study, with the primary aim of assessing the safety of hypotensive resuscitation within the trauma population. ^ Patients in hemorrhagic shock who required emergent surgery were randomized to one of two arms of the study. Those in the experimental (LMAP) arm were managed with a hypotensive resuscitation strategy in which the target mean arterial pressure was 50mmHg. Those in the control (HMAP) arm were managed with standard fluid resuscitation to a target mean arterial pressure of 65mmHg. Patients were followed for 30 days. Mortality, post-operative complications, and other clinical data were prospectively gathered by the Ben Taub surgical staff and then secondarily analyzed for the purpose of this thesis.^ Subjects in the LMAP group had significantly lower early post-operative mortality compared to those in the HMAP group. 30-day mortality was also lower in the LMAP group, although this did not reach statistical significance. There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups with regards to development of ischemic, hematologic or infectious complications, length of hospitalization, length of ICU stay or duration of mechanical ventilation. ^ Based upon the data presented in this thesis, it appears that hypotensive resuscitation is a safe strategy for use in the trauma population. Specifically, hypotensive resuscitation reduced the risk of early post-operative death from coagulopathic bleeding and did not result in an increased risk of ischemic or other post-operative complications. The preliminary results described in this thesis provide convincing evidence support the continued investigation and use of hypotensive resuscitation in a trauma setting.^

Delayed Thrombus Resolution and Fibroproliferative Vascular Wound Healing From Deficiency of Type III Collagen: a Paradoxical Mechanism for Tissue Fragility

Vascular Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is a heritable disease of connective tissue caused by mutations in COL3A1, conferring a tissue deficiency of type III collagen. Cutaneous wounds heal poorly in these patients, and they are susceptible to spontaneous and catastrophic rupture of expansible hollow organs like the gut, uterus, and medium-sized to large arteries, which leads to premature death. Although the predisposition for organ rupture is often attributed to inherent tissue fragility, investigation of arteries from a haploinsufficient Col3a1 mouse model (Col3a1+/-) demonstrates that mutant arteries withstand even supraphysiologic pressures comparably to wild-type vessels. We hypothesize that injury that elicits occlusive thrombi instead unmasks defective thrombus resolution resulting from impaired production of type III collagen, which causes deranged remodeling of matrix, persistent inflammation, and dysregulated behavior by resident myofibroblasts, culminating in the development of penetrating neovascular channels that disrupt the mechanical integrity of the arterial wall. Vascular injury and thrombus formation following ligation of the carotid artery reveals an abnormal persistence and elevated burden of occlusive thrombi at 21 post-operative days in vessels from Col3a1+/- mice, as opposed to near complete resolution and formation of a patent and mature neointima in wild-type mice. At only 14 days, both groups harbor comparable burdens of resolving thrombi, but wild-type mice increase production of type III collagen in actively resolving tissues, while mutant mice do not. Rather, thrombi in mutant mice contain higher burdens of macrophages and proliferative myofibroblasts, which persist through 21 days while wild-type thrombi, inflammatory cells, and proliferation all regress. At the same time that increased macrophage burdens were observed at 14 and 21 days post ligation, the medial layer of mutant arterial walls concurrently harbored a significantly higher incidence of penetrating neovessels compared with those in wild-type mice. To assess whether limited type III collagen production alters myofibroblast behavior, fibroblasts from vEDS patients with COL3A1 missense mutations were seeded into three-dimensional fibrin gel constructs and stimulated with transforming growth factor-β1 to initiate myofibroblast differentiation. Although early signaling events occur similarly in all cell lines, late extracellular matrix- and mechanically-regulated events like transcriptional upregulation of type I and type III collagen secretion are delayed in mutant cultures, while transcription of genes encoding intracellular contractile machinery is increased. Sophisticated imaging of collagen synthesized de novo by resident myofibroblasts visualizes complex matrix reorganization by control cells but only meager remodeling by COL3A1 mutant cells, concordant with their compensatory contraction to maintain tension in the matrix. Finally, administration of immunosuppressive rapamycin to mice following carotid ligation sufficiently halts the initial inflammatory phase of thrombus resolution and fully prevents both myofibroblast migration into the thrombus and the differential development of neovessels between mutant and wild-type mice, suggesting that pathological defects in mutant arteries develop secondarily to myofibroblast dysfunction and chronic inflammatory stimulation, rather than as a manifestation of tissue fragility. Together these data establish evidence that pathological defects in the vessel wall architecture develop in mutant arteries as sequelae to abnormal healing and remodeling responses activated by arterial injury. Thus, these data support the hypothesis that events threatening the integrity of type III collagen-deficient vessels develop not as a result of inherent tissue weakness and fragility at baseline but instead as an episodic byproduct of abnormally persistent granulation tissue and fibroproliferative intravascular remodeling.