Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Biomedical informatics applications for epilepsy management: A systematic review

Epilepsy is a very complex disease which can have a variety of etiologies, co-morbidities, and a long list of psychosocial factors4. Clinical management of epilepsy patients typically includes serological tests, EEG's, and imaging studies to determine the single best antiepileptic drug (AED). Self-management is a vital component of achieving optimal health when living with a chronic disease. For patients with epilepsy self-management includes any necessary actions to control seizures and cope with any subsequent effects of the condition9; including aspects of treatment, seizure, and lifestyle. The use of computer-based applications can allow for more effective use of clinic visits and ultimately enhance the patient-provider relationship through focused discussion of determinants affecting self-management. ^ The purpose of this study is to conduct a systematic literature review on informatics application in epilepsy self-management in an effort to describe current evidence for informatics applications and decision support as an adjunct to successful clinical management of epilepsy. Each publication was analyzed for the type of study design utilized. ^ A total of 68 publications were included and categorized by the study design used, development stage, and clinical domain. Descriptive study designs comprised of three-fourths of the publications and indicate an underwhelming use of prospective studies. The vast majority of prospective studies also focused on clinician use to increase knowledge in treating patients with epilepsy. ^ Due to the chronic nature of epilepsy and the difficulty that both clinicians and patients can experience in managing epilepsy, more prospective studies are needed to evaluate applications that can effectively increase management activities. Within the last two decades of epilepsy research, management studies have employed the use of biomedical informatics applications. While the use of computer applications to manage epilepsy has increased, more progress is needed.^

The SanaViz: Human Centered Geovisualization to facilitate visual exploration of Public Health data

These three manuscripts are presented as a PhD dissertation for the study of using GeoVis application to evaluate telehealth programs. The primary reason of this research was to understand how the GeoVis applications can be designed and developed using combined approaches of HC approach and cognitive fit theory and in terms utilized to evaluate telehealth program in Brazil. First manuscript The first manuscript in this dissertation presented a background about the use of GeoVisualization to facilitate visual exploration of public health data. The manuscript covered the existing challenges that were associated with an adoption of existing GeoVis applications. The manuscript combines the principles of Human Centered approach and Cognitive Fit Theory and a framework using a combination of these approaches is developed that lays the foundation of this research. The framework is then utilized to propose the design, development and evaluation of “the SanaViz” to evaluate telehealth data in Brazil, as a proof of concept. Second manuscript The second manuscript is a methods paper that describes the approaches that can be employed to design and develop “the SanaViz” based on the proposed framework. By defining the various elements of the HC approach and CFT, a mixed methods approach is utilized for the card sorting and sketching techniques. A representative sample of 20 study participants currently involved in the telehealth program at the NUTES telehealth center at UFPE, Recife, Brazil was enrolled. The findings of this manuscript helped us understand the needs of the diverse group of telehealth users, the tasks that they perform and helped us determine the essential features that might be necessary to be included in the proposed GeoVis application “the SanaViz”. Third manuscript The third manuscript involved mix- methods approach to compare the effectiveness and usefulness of the HC GeoVis application “the SanaViz” against a conventional GeoVis application “Instant Atlas”. The same group of 20 study participants who had earlier participated during Aim 2 was enrolled and a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments was done. Effectiveness was gauged by the time that the participants took to complete the tasks using both the GeoVis applications, the ease with which they completed the tasks and the number of attempts that were taken to complete each task. Usefulness was assessed by System Usability Scale (SUS), a validated questionnaire tested in prior studies. In-depth interviews were conducted to gather opinions about both the GeoVis applications. This manuscript helped us in the demonstration of the usefulness and effectiveness of HC GeoVis applications to facilitate visual exploration of telehealth data, as a proof of concept. Together, these three manuscripts represent challenges of combining principles of Human Centered approach, Cognitive Fit Theory to design and develop GeoVis applications as a method to evaluate Telehealth data. To our knowledge, this is the first study to explore the usefulness and effectiveness of GeoVis to facilitate visual exploration of telehealth data. The results of the research enabled us to develop a framework for the design and development of GeoVis applications related to the areas of public health and especially telehealth. The results of our study showed that the varied users were involved with the telehealth program and the tasks that they performed. Further it enabled us to identify the components that might be essential to be included in these GeoVis applications. The results of our research answered the following questions; (a) Telehealth users vary in their level of understanding about GeoVis (b) Interaction features such as zooming, sorting, and linking and multiple views and representation features such as bar chart and choropleth maps were considered the most essential features of the GeoVis applications. (c) Comparing and sorting were two important tasks that the telehealth users would perform for exploratory data analysis. (d) A HC GeoVis prototype application is more effective and useful for exploration of telehealth data than a conventional GeoVis application. Future studies should be done to incorporate the proposed HC GeoVis framework to enable comprehensive assessment of the users and the tasks they perform to identify the features that might be necessary to be a part of the GeoVis applications. The results of this study demonstrate a novel approach to comprehensively and systematically enhance the evaluation of telehealth programs using the proposed GeoVis Framework.