On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Multi-model inference ranking and applications to physics at the Large Hadron Collider

In the measurement of the Higgs Boson decaying into two photons the parametrization of an appropriate background model is essential for fitting the Higgs signal mass peak over a continuous background. This diphoton background modeling is crucial in the statistical process of calculating exclusion limits and the significance of observations in comparison to a background-only hypothesis. It is therefore ideal to obtain knowledge of the physical shape for the background mass distribution as the use of an improper function can lead to biases in the observed limits. Using an Information-Theoretic (I-T) approach for valid inference we apply Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as a measure of the separation for a fitting model from the data. We then implement a multi-model inference ranking method to build a fit-model that closest represents the Standard Model background in 2013 diphoton data recorded by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Potential applications and extensions of this model-selection technique are discussed with reference to CMS detector performance measurements as well as in potential physics analyses at future detectors.

High pressure states in condensed matter: I. High pressure behavior of the iron-sulphur system with applications to the earth's core. II. Empirical equation of state for organic compounds at high pressures

Part I:

The earth's core is generally accepted to be composed primarily of iron, with an admixture of other elements. Because the outer core is observed not to transmit shear waves at seismic frequencies, it is known to be liquid or primarily liquid. A new equation of state is presented for liquid iron, in the form of parameters for the 4th order Birch-Murnaghan and Mie-Grüneisen equations of state. The parameters were constrained by a set of values for numerous properties compiled from the literature. A detailed theoretical model is used to constrain the P-T behavior of the heat capacity, based on recent advances in the understanding of the interatomic potentials for transition metals. At the reference pressure of 10⁵ Pa and temperature of 1811 K (the normal melting point of Fe), the parameters are: ρ = 7037 kg/m³, K_S0 = 110 GPa, K_S' = 4.53, K_S" = -.0337 GPa-1, and γ = 2.8, with γ α ρ^-1.17. Comparison of the properties predicted by this model with the earth model PREM indicates that the outer core is 8 to 10 % less dense than pure liquid Fe at the same conditions. The inner core is also found to be 3 to 5% less dense than pure liquid Fe, supporting the idea of a partially molten inner core. The density deficit of the outer core implies that the elements dissolved in the liquid Fe are predominantly of lower atomic weight than Fe. Of the candidate light elements favored by researchers, only sulfur readily dissolves into Fe at low pressure, which means that this element was almost certainly concentrated in the core at early times. New melting data are presented for FeS and FeS₂ which indicate that the FeS₂ is the S-hearing liquidus solid phase at inner core pressures. Consideration of the requirement that the inner core boundary be observable by seismological means and the freezing behavior of solutions leads to the possibility that the outer core may contain a significant fraction of solid material. It is found that convection in the outer core is not hindered if the solid particles are entrained in the fluid flow. This model for a core of Fe and S admits temperatures in the range 3450K to 4200K at the top of the core. An all liquid Fe-S outer core would require a temperature of about 4900 K at the top of the core.

Part II.

The abundance of uses for organic compounds in the modern world results in many applications in which these materials are subjected to high pressures. This leads to the desire to be able to describe the behavior of these materials under such conditions. Unfortunately, the number of compounds is much greater than the number of experimental data available for many of the important properties. In the past, one approach that has worked well is the calculation of appropriate properties by summing the contributions from the organic functional groups making up molecules of the compounds in question. A new set of group contributions for the molar volume, volume thermal expansivity, heat capacity, and the Rao function is presented for functional groups containing C, H, and O. This set is, in most cases, limited in application to low molecular liquids. A new technique for the calculation of the pressure derivative of the bulk modulus is also presented. Comparison with data indicates that the presented technique works very well for most low molecular hydrocarbon liquids and somewhat less well for oxygen-bearing compounds. A similar comparison of previous results for polymers indicates that the existing tabulations of group contributions for this class of materials is in need of revision. There is also evidence that the Rao function contributions for polymers and low molecular compounds are somewhat different.

Finite differences and a coupled analytic technique with applications to explosions and earthquakes

An analytic technique is developed that couples to finite difference calculations to extend the results to arbitrary distance. Finite differences and the analytic result, a boundary integral called two-dimensional Kirchhoff, are applied to simple models and three seismological problems dealing with data. The simple models include a thorough investigation of the seismologic effects of a deep continental basin. The first problem is explosions at Yucca Flat, in the Nevada test site. By modeling both near-field strong-motion records and teleseismic P-waves simultaneously, it is shown that scattered surface waves are responsible for teleseismic complexity. The second problem deals with explosions at Amchitka Island, Alaska. The near-field seismograms are investigated using a variety of complex structures and sources. The third problem involves regional seismograms of Imperial Valley, California earthquakes recorded at Pasadena, California. The data are shown to contain evidence of deterministic structure, but lack of more direct measurements of the structure and possible three-dimensional effects make two-dimensional modeling of these data difficult.

Fast numerical methods for mixed, singular Helmholtz boundary value problems and Laplace eigenvalue problems - with applications to antenna design, sloshing, electromagnetic scattering and spectral geometry

This thesis presents a novel class of algorithms for the solution of scattering and eigenvalue problems on general two-dimensional domains under a variety of boundary conditions, including non-smooth domains and certain "Zaremba" boundary conditions - for which Dirichlet and Neumann conditions are specified on various portions of the domain boundary. The theoretical basis of the methods for the Zaremba problems on smooth domains concern detailed information, which is put forth for the first time in this thesis, about the singularity structure of solutions of the Laplace operator under boundary conditions of Zaremba type. The new methods, which are based on use of Green functions and integral equations, incorporate a number of algorithmic innovations, including a fast and robust eigenvalue-search algorithm, use of the Fourier Continuation method for regularization of all smooth-domain Zaremba singularities, and newly derived quadrature rules which give rise to high-order convergence even around singular points for the Zaremba problem. The resulting algorithms enjoy high-order convergence, and they can tackle a variety of elliptic problems under general boundary conditions, including, for example, eigenvalue problems, scattering problems, and, in particular, eigenfunction expansion for time-domain problems in non-separable physical domains with mixed boundary conditions.

A theory of strong and weak scintillations with applications to astrophysics

The propagation of waves in an extended, irregular medium is studied under the "quasi-optics" and the "Markov random process" approximations. Under these assumptions, a Fokker-Planck equation satisfied by the characteristic functional of the random wave field is derived. A complete set of the moment equations with different transverse coordinates and different wavenumbers is then obtained from the characteristic functional. The derivation does not require Gaussian statistics of the random medium and the result can be applied to the time-dependent problem. We then solve the moment equations for the phase correlation function, angular broadening, temporal pulse smearing, intensity correlation function, and the probability distribution of the random waves. The necessary and sufficient conditions for strong scintillation are also given.

We also consider the problem of diffraction of waves by a random, phase-changing screen. The intensity correlation function is solved in the whole Fresnel diffraction region and the temporal pulse broadening function is derived rigorously from the wave equation.

The method of smooth perturbations is applied to interplanetary scintillations. We formulate and calculate the effects of the solar-wind velocity fluctuations on the observed intensity power spectrum and on the ratio of the observed "pattern" velocity and the true velocity of the solar wind in the three-dimensional spherical model. The r.m.s. solar-wind velocity fluctuations are found to be ~200 km/sec in the region about 20 solar radii from the Sun.

We then interpret the observed interstellar scintillation data using the theories derived under the Markov approximation, which are also valid for the strong scintillation. We find that the Kolmogorov power-law spectrum with an outer scale of 10 to 100 pc fits the scintillation data and that the ambient averaged electron density in the interstellar medium is about 0.025 cm^-3. It is also found that there exists a region of strong electron density fluctuation with thickness ~10 pc and mean electron density ~7 cm^-3 between the PSR 0833-45 pulsar and the earth.

Estimation of catalyst activity profiles and deactivation parameters from reactor operating data with applications to naphtha reforming

Techniques are developed for estimating activity profiles in fixed bed reactors and catalyst deactivation parameters from operating reactor data. These techniques are applicable, in general, to most industrial catalytic processes. The catalytic reforming of naphthas is taken as a broad example to illustrate the estimation schemes and to signify the physical meaning of the kinetic parameters of the estimation equations. The work is described in two parts. Part I deals with the modeling of kinetic rate expressions and the derivation of the working equations for estimation. Part II concentrates on developing various estimation techniques.

Part I: The reactions used to describe naphtha reforming are dehydrogenation and dehydroisomerization of cycloparaffins; isomerization, dehydrocyclization and hydrocracking of paraffins; and the catalyst deactivation reactions, namely coking on alumina sites and sintering of platinum crystallites. The rate expressions for the above reactions are formulated, and the effects of transport limitations on the overall reaction rates are discussed in the appendices. Moreover, various types of interaction between the metallic and acidic active centers of reforming catalysts are discussed as characterizing the different types of reforming reactions.

Part II: In catalytic reactor operation, the activity distribution along the reactor determines the kinetics of the main reaction and is needed for predicting the effect of changes in the feed state and the operating conditions on the reactor output. In the case of a monofunctional catalyst and of bifunctional catalysts in limiting conditions, the cumulative activity is sufficient for predicting steady reactor output. The estimation of this cumulative activity can be carried out easily from measurements at the reactor exit. For a general bifunctional catalytic system, the detailed activity distribution is needed for describing the reactor operation, and some approximation must be made to obtain practicable estimation schemes. This is accomplished by parametrization techniques using measurements at a few points along the reactor. Such parametrization techniques are illustrated numerically with a simplified model of naphtha reforming.

To determine long term catalyst utilization and regeneration policies, it is necessary to estimate catalyst deactivation parameters from the the current operating data. For a first order deactivation model with a monofunctional catalyst or with a bifunctional catalyst in special limiting circumstances, analytical techniques are presented to transform the partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations which admit more feasible estimation schemes. Numerical examples include the catalytic oxidation of butene to butadiene and a simplified model of naphtha reforming. For a general bifunctional system or in the case of a monofunctional catalyst subject to general power law deactivation, the estimation can only be accomplished approximately. The basic feature of an appropriate estimation scheme involves approximating the activity profile by certain polynomials and then estimating the deactivation parameters from the integrated form of the deactivation equation by regression techniques. Different bifunctional systems must be treated by different estimation algorithms, which are illustrated by several cases of naphtha reforming with different feed or catalyst composition.

Applications of frequency modulation interference cancellers to multiaccess communications systems

Cancellation of interfering frequency-modulated (FM) signals is investigated with emphasis towards applications on the cellular telephone channel as an important example of a multiple access communications system. In order to fairly evaluate analog FM multiaccess systems with respect to more complex digital multiaccess systems, a serious attempt to mitigate interference in the FM systems must be made. Information-theoretic results in the field of interference channels are shown to motivate the estimation and subtraction of undesired interfering signals. This thesis briefly examines the relative optimality of the current FM techniques in known interference channels, before pursuing the estimation and subtracting of interfering FM signals.

The capture-effect phenomenon of FM reception is exploited to produce simple interference-cancelling receivers with a cross-coupled topology. The use of phase-locked loop receivers cross-coupled with amplitude-tracking loops to estimate the FM signals is explored. The theory and function of these cross-coupled phase-locked loop (CCPLL) interference cancellers are examined. New interference cancellers inspired by optimal estimation and the CCPLL topology are developed, resulting in simpler receivers than those in prior art. Signal acquisition and capture effects in these complex dynamical systems are explained using the relationship of the dynamical systems to adaptive noise cancellers.

FM interference-cancelling receivers are considered for increasing the frequency reuse in a cellular telephone system. Interference mitigation in the cellular environment is seen to require tracking of the desired signal during time intervals when it is not the strongest signal present. Use of interference cancelling in conjunction with dynamic frequency-allocation algorithms is viewed as a way of improving spectrum efficiency. Performance of interference cancellers indicates possibilities for greatly increased frequency reuse. The economics of receiver improvements in the cellular system is considered, including both the mobile subscriber equipment and the provider's tower (base station) equipment.

The thesis is divided into four major parts and a summary: the introduction, motivations for the use of interference cancellation, examination of the CCPLL interference canceller, and applications to the cellular channel. The parts are dependent on each other and are meant to be read as a whole.

Three essays on economics and information shocks

A person living in an industrialized society has almost no choice but to receive information daily with negative implications for himself or others. His attention will often be drawn to the ups and downs of economic indicators or the alleged misdeeds of leaders and organizations. Reacting to new information is central to economics, but economics typically ignores the affective aspect of the response, for example, of stress or anger. These essays present the results of considering how the affective aspect of the response can influence economic outcomes.

The first chapter presents an experiment in which individuals were presented with information about various non-profit organizations and allowed to take actions that rewarded or punished those organizations. When social interaction was introduced into this environment an asymmetry between rewarding and punishing appeared. The net effects of punishment became greater and more variable, whereas the effects of reward were unchanged. The individuals were more strongly influenced by negative social information and used that information to target unpopular organizations. These behaviors contributed to an increase in inequality among the outcomes of the organizations.

The second and third chapters present empirical studies of reactions to negative information about local economic conditions. Economic factors are among the most prevalent stressors, and stress is known to have numerous negative effects on health. These chapters document localized, transient effects of the announcement of information about large-scale job losses. News of mass layoffs and shut downs of large military bases are found to decrease birth weights and gestational ages among babies born in the affected regions. The effect magnitudes are close to those estimated in similar studies of disasters.

Compressible flows at small Reynolds numbers

The problem of the slow viscous flow of a gas past a sphere is considered. The fluid cannot be treated incompressible in the limit when the Reynolds number Re, and the Mach number M, tend to zero in such a way that Re ~ o(M^2 ). In this case, the lowest order approximation to the steady Navier-Stokes equations of motion leads to a paradox discovered by Lagerstrom and Chester. This paradox is resolved within the framework of continuum mechanics using the classical slip condition and an iteration scheme that takes into account certain terms in the full Navier-Stokes equations that drop out in the approximation used by the above authors. It is found however that the drag predicted by the theory does not agree with R. A. Millikan's classic experiments on sphere drag.

The whole question of the applicability of the Navier-Stokes theory when the Knudsen number M/Re is not small is examined. A new slip condition is proposed. The idea that the Navier-Stokes equations coupled with this condition may adequately describe small Reynolds number flows when the Knudsen number is not too large is looked at in some detail. First, a general discussion of asymptotic solutions of the equations for all such flows is given. The theory is then applied to several concrete problems of fluid motion. The deductions from this theory appear to interpret and summarize the results of Millikan over a much wider range of Knudsen numbers (almost up to the free molecular or kinetic limit) than hitherto Believed possible by a purely continuum theory. Further experimental tests are suggested and certain interesting applications to the theory of dilute suspensions in gases are noted. Some of the questions raised in the main body of the work are explored further in the appendices.

Terahertz time domain spectroscopy of amino acids and sugars

A time-domain spectrometer for use in the terahertz (THz) spectral range was designed and constructed. Due to there being few existing methods of generating and detecting THz radiation, the spectrometer is expected to have vast applications to solid, liquid, and gas phase samples. In particular, knowledge of complex organic chemistry and chemical abundances in the interstellar medium (ISM) can be obtained when compared to astronomical data. The THz spectral region is of particular interest due to reduced line density when compared to the millimeter wave spectrum, the existence of high resolution observatories, and potentially strong transitions resulting from the lowest-lying vibrational modes of large molecules.

The heart of the THz time-domain spectrometer (THz-TDS) is the ultrafast laser. Due to the femtosecond duration of ultrafast laser pulses and an energy-time uncertainty relationship, the pulses typically have a several-THz bandwidth. By various means of optical rectification, the optical pulse carrier envelope shape, i.e. intensity-time profile, can be transferred to the phase of the resulting THz pulse. As a consequence, optical pump-THz probe spectroscopy is readily achieved, as was demonstrated in studies of dye-sensitized TiO₂, as discussed in chapter 4. Detection of the terahertz radiation is commonly based on electro-optic sampling and provides full phase information. This allows for accurate determination of both the real and imaginary index of refraction, the so-called optical constants, without additional analysis. A suite of amino acids and sugars, all of which have been found in meteorites, were studied in crystalline form embedded in a polyethylene matrix. As the temperature was varied between 10 and 310 K, various strong vibrational modes were found to shift in spectral intensity and frequency. Such modes can be attributed to intramolecular, intermolecular, or phonon modes, or to some combination of the three.

Quantum error correction with biased noise

Quantum computing offers powerful new techniques for speeding up the calculation of many classically intractable problems. Quantum algorithms can allow for the efficient simulation of physical systems, with applications to basic research, chemical modeling, and drug discovery; other algorithms have important implications for cryptography and internet security.

At the same time, building a quantum computer is a daunting task, requiring the coherent manipulation of systems with many quantum degrees of freedom while preventing environmental noise from interacting too strongly with the system. Fortunately, we know that, under reasonable assumptions, we can use the techniques of quantum error correction and fault tolerance to achieve an arbitrary reduction in the noise level.

In this thesis, we look at how additional information about the structure of noise, or "noise bias," can improve or alter the performance of techniques in quantum error correction and fault tolerance. In Chapter 2, we explore the possibility of designing certain quantum gates to be extremely robust with respect to errors in their operation. This naturally leads to structured noise where certain gates can be implemented in a protected manner, allowing the user to focus their protection on the noisier unprotected operations.

In Chapter 3, we examine how to tailor error-correcting codes and fault-tolerant quantum circuits in the presence of dephasing biased noise, where dephasing errors are far more common than bit-flip errors. By using an appropriately asymmetric code, we demonstrate the ability to improve the amount of error reduction and decrease the physical resources required for error correction.

In Chapter 4, we analyze a variety of protocols for distilling magic states, which enable universal quantum computation, in the presence of faulty Clifford operations. Here again there is a hierarchy of noise levels, with a fixed error rate for faulty gates, and a second rate for errors in the distilled states which decreases as the states are distilled to better quality. The interplay of of these different rates sets limits on the achievable distillation and how quickly states converge to that limit.

A new high-order Fourier continuation-based elasticity solver for complex three-dimensional geometries

This thesis presents a new approach for the numerical solution of three-dimensional problems in elastodynamics. The new methodology, which is based on a recently introduced Fourier continuation (FC) algorithm for the solution of Partial Differential Equations on the basis of accurate Fourier expansions of possibly non-periodic functions, enables fast, high-order solutions of the time-dependent elastic wave equation in a nearly dispersionless manner, and it requires use of CFL constraints that scale only linearly with spatial discretizations. A new FC operator is introduced to treat Neumann and traction boundary conditions, and a block-decomposed (sub-patch) overset strategy is presented for implementation of general, complex geometries in distributed-memory parallel computing environments. Our treatment of the elastic wave equation, which is formulated as a complex system of variable-coefficient PDEs that includes possibly heterogeneous and spatially varying material constants, represents the first fully-realized three-dimensional extension of FC-based solvers to date. Challenges for three-dimensional elastodynamics simulations such as treatment of corners and edges in three-dimensional geometries, the existence of variable coefficients arising from physical configurations and/or use of curvilinear coordinate systems and treatment of boundary conditions, are all addressed. The broad applicability of our new FC elasticity solver is demonstrated through application to realistic problems concerning seismic wave motion on three-dimensional topographies as well as applications to non-destructive evaluation where, for the first time, we present three-dimensional simulations for comparison to experimental studies of guided-wave scattering by through-thickness holes in thin plates.

Complex behavior and perception in Drosophila emerges from iterative feedback-regulated reflexes

For a hungry fruit fly, locating and landing on a fermenting fruit where it can feed, find mates, and lay eggs, is an essential and difficult task requiring the integration of both olfactory and visual cues. Understanding how flies accomplish this will help provide a comprehensive ethological context for the expanding knowledge of their neural circuits involved in processing olfaction and vision, as well as inspire novel engineering solutions for control and estimation in computationally limited robotic applications. In this thesis, I use novel high throughput methods to develop a detailed overview of how flies track odor plumes, land, and regulate flight speed. Finally, I provide an example of how these insights can be applied to robotic applications to simplify complicated estimation problems. To localize an odor source, flies exhibit three iterative, reflex-driven behaviors. Upon encountering an attractive plume, flies increase their flight speed and turn upwind using visual cues. After losing the plume, flies begin zigzagging crosswind, again using visual cues to control their heading. After sensing an attractive odor, flies become more attracted to small visual features, which increases their chances of finding the plume source. Their changes in heading are largely controlled by open-loop maneuvers called saccades, which they direct towards and away from visual features. If a fly decides to land on an object, it begins to decelerate so as to maintain a stereotypical ratio of expansion to retinal size. Once they reach a stereotypical distance from the target, flies extend their legs in preparation for touchdown. Although it is unclear what cues they use to trigger this behavior, previous studies have indicated that it is likely under visual control. In Chapter 3, I use a nonlinear control theoretic analysis and robotic testbed to propose a novel and putative mechanism for how a fly might visually estimate distance by actively decelerating according to a visual control law. Throughout these behaviors, a common theme is the visual control of flight speed. Using genetic tools I show that the neuromodulator octopamine plays an important role in regulating flight speed, and propose a neural circuit for how this controller might be implemented in the flies brain. Two general biological and engineering principles are evident across my experiments: (1) complex behaviors, such as foraging, can emerge from the interactions of simple independent sensory-motor modules; (2) flies control their behavior in such a way that simplifies complex estimation problems.

Neural network design for switching network control

A neural network is a highly interconnected set of simple processors. The many connections allow information to travel rapidly through the network, and due to their simplicity, many processors in one network are feasible. Together these properties imply that we can build efficient massively parallel machines using neural networks. The primary problem is how do we specify the interconnections in a neural network. The various approaches developed so far such as outer product, learning algorithm, or energy function suffer from the following deficiencies: long training/ specification times; not guaranteed to work on all inputs; requires full connectivity.

Alternatively we discuss methods of using the topology and constraints of the problems themselves to design the topology and connections of the neural solution. We define several useful circuits-generalizations of the Winner-Take-All circuitthat allows us to incorporate constraints using feedback in a controlled manner. These circuits are proven to be stable, and to only converge on valid states. We use the Hopfield electronic model since this is close to an actual implementation. We also discuss methods for incorporating these circuits into larger systems, neural and nonneural. By exploiting regularities in our definition, we can construct efficient networks. To demonstrate the methods, we look to three problems from communications. We first discuss two applications to problems from circuit switching; finding routes in large multistage switches, and the call rearrangement problem. These show both, how we can use many neurons to build massively parallel machines, and how the Winner-Take-All circuits can simplify our designs.

Next we develop a solution to the contention arbitration problem of high-speed packet switches. We define a useful class of switching networks and then design a neural network to solve the contention arbitration problem for this class. Various aspects of the neural network/switch system are analyzed to measure the queueing performance of this method. Using the basic design, a feasible architecture for a large (1024-input) ATM packet switch is presented. Using the massive parallelism of neural networks, we can consider algorithms that were previously computationally unattainable. These now viable algorithms lead us to new perspectives on switch design.