PROBABILISTIC MODELING OF RAINFALL INDUCED LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN SAN JUAN LA LAGUNA, SOLOLÁ, GUATEMALA

The municipality of San Juan La Laguna, Guatemala is home to approximately 5,200 people and located on the western side of the Lake Atitlán caldera. Steep slopes surround all but the eastern side of San Juan. The Lake Atitlán watershed is susceptible to many natural hazards, but most predictable are the landslides that can occur annually with each rainy season, especially during high-intensity events. Hurricane Stan hit Guatemala in October 2005; the resulting flooding and landslides devastated the Atitlán region. Locations of landslide and non-landslide points were obtained from field observations and orthophotos taken following Hurricane Stan. This study used data from multiple attributes, at every landslide and non-landslide point, and applied different multivariate analyses to optimize a model for landslides prediction during high-intensity precipitation events like Hurricane Stan. The attributes considered in this study are: geology, geomorphology, distance to faults and streams, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature and topographic wetness index. The attributes were pre-evaluated for their ability to predict landslides using four different attribute evaluators, all available in the open source data mining software Weka: filtered subset, information gain, gain ratio and chi-squared. Three multivariate algorithms (decision tree J48, logistic regression and BayesNet) were optimized for landslide prediction using different attributes. The following statistical parameters were used to evaluate model accuracy: precision, recall, F measure and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The algorithm BayesNet yielded the most accurate model and was used to build a probability map of landslide initiation points. The probability map developed in this study was also compared to the results of a bivariate landslide susceptibility analysis conducted for the watershed, encompassing Lake Atitlán and San Juan. Landslides from Tropical Storm Agatha 2010 were used to independently validate this study’s multivariate model and the bivariate model. The ultimate aim of this study is to share the methodology and results with municipal contacts from the author's time as a U.S. Peace Corps volunteer, to facilitate more effective future landslide hazard planning and mitigation.

Detection of complex point targets with distributed assets in a MIMO radar system

The report explores the problem of detecting complex point target models in a MIMO radar system. A complex point target is a mathematical and statistical model for a radar target that is not resolved in space, but exhibits varying complex reflectivity across the different bistatic view angles. The complex reflectivity can be modeled as a complex stochastic process whose index set is the set of all the bistatic view angles, and the parameters of the stochastic process follow from an analysis of a target model comprising a number of ideal point scatterers randomly located within some radius of the targets center of mass. The proposed complex point targets may be applicable to statistical inference in multistatic or MIMO radar system. Six different target models are summarized here – three 2-dimensional (Gaussian, Uniform Square, and Uniform Circle) and three 3-dimensional (Gaussian, Uniform Cube, and Uniform Sphere). They are assumed to have different distributions on the location of the point scatterers within the target. We develop data models for the received signals from such targets in the MIMO radar system with distributed assets and partially correlated signals, and consider the resulting detection problem which reduces to the familiar Gauss-Gauss detection problem. We illustrate that the target parameter and transmit signal have an influence on the detector performance through target extent and the SNR respectively. A series of the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves are generated to notice the impact on the detector for varying SNR. Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence is applied to obtain the approximate mean difference between density functions the scatterers assume inside the target models to show the change in the performance of the detector with target extent of the point scatterers.

Development of room temperature operating single electron transistor using FIB etching and deposition technology

The single-electron transistor (SET) is one of the best candidates for future nano electronic circuits because of its ultralow power consumption, small size and unique functionality. SET devices operate on the principle of Coulomb blockade, which is more prominent at dimensions of a few nano meters. Typically, the SET device consists of two capacitively coupled ultra-small tunnel junctions with a nano island between them. In order to observe the Coulomb blockade effects in a SET device the charging energy of the device has to be greater that the thermal energy. This condition limits the operation of most of the existing SET devices to cryogenic temperatures. Room temperature operation of SET devices requires sub-10nm nano-islands due to the inverse dependence of charging energy on the radius of the conducting nano-island. Fabrication of sub-10nm structures using lithography processes is still a technological challenge. In the present investigation, Focused Ion Beam based etch and deposition technology is used to fabricate single electron transistors devices operating at room temperature. The SET device incorporates an array of tungsten nano-islands with an average diameter of 8nm. The fabricated devices are characterized at room temperature and clear Coulomb blockade and Coulomb oscillations are observed. An improvement in the resolution limitation of the FIB etching process is demonstrated by optimizing the thickness of the active layer. SET devices with structural and topological variation are developed to explore their impact on the behavior of the device. The threshold voltage of the device was minimized to ~500mV by minimizing the source-drain gap of the device to 17nm. Vertical source and drain terminals are fabricated to realize single-dot based SET device. A unique process flow is developed to fabricate Si dot based SET devices for better gate controllability in the device characteristic. The device vi parameters of the fabricated devices are extracted by using a conductance model. Finally, characteristic of these devices are validated with the simulated data from theoretical modeling.