Opening Reception

Attendees that preregistered for the speaker series are invited to the opening reception, featuring guest speaker David Salmela and remarks from Scott See, Executive Director of the Keweenaw National Historical Park Advisory Commission. A registration table will also be available for registrants who wish to pick up event materials.

Price risk management in the copper market using commodity derivatives and options strategies

Metals price risk management is a key issue related to financial risk in metal markets because of uncertainty of commodity price fluctuation, exchange rate, interest rate changes and huge price risk either to metals’ producers or consumers. Thus, it has been taken into account by all participants in metal markets including metals’ producers, consumers, merchants, banks, investment funds, speculators, traders and so on. Managing price risk provides stable income for both metals’ producers and consumers, so it increases the chance that a firm will invest in attractive projects. The purpose of this research is to evaluate risk management strategies in the copper market. The main tools and strategies of price risk management are hedging and other derivatives such as futures contracts, swaps and options contracts. Hedging is a transaction designed to reduce or eliminate price risk. Derivatives are financial instruments, whose returns are derived from other financial instruments and they are commonly used for managing financial risks. Although derivatives have been around in some form for centuries, their growth has accelerated rapidly during the last 20 years. Nowadays, they are widely used by financial institutions, corporations, professional investors, and individuals. This project is focused on the over-the-counter (OTC) market and its products such as exotic options, particularly Asian options. The first part of the project is a description of basic derivatives and risk management strategies. In addition, this part discusses basic concepts of spot and futures (forward) markets, benefits and costs of risk management and risks and rewards of positions in the derivative markets. The second part considers valuations of commodity derivatives. In this part, the options pricing model DerivaGem is applied to Asian call and put options on London Metal Exchange (LME) copper because it is important to understand how Asian options are valued and to compare theoretical values of the options with their market observed values. Predicting future trends of copper prices is important and would be essential to manage market price risk successfully. Therefore, the third part is a discussion about econometric commodity models. Based on this literature review, the fourth part of the project reports the construction and testing of an econometric model designed to forecast the monthly average price of copper on the LME. More specifically, this part aims at showing how LME copper prices can be explained by means of a simultaneous equation structural model (two-stage least squares regression) connecting supply and demand variables. A simultaneous econometric model for the copper industry is built: {█(Q_t^D=e^((-5.0485))∙P_((t-1))^((-0.1868) )∙〖GDP〗_t^((1.7151) )∙e^((0.0158)∙〖IP〗_t ) @Q_t^S=e^((-3.0785))∙P_((t-1))^((0.5960))∙T_t^((0.1408))∙P_(OIL(t))^((-0.1559))∙〖USDI〗_t^((1.2432))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((-0.0561))@Q_t^D=Q_t^S )┤ P_((t-1))^CU=e^((-2.5165))∙〖GDP〗_t^((2.1910))∙e^((0.0202)∙〖IP〗_t )∙T_t^((-0.1799))∙P_(OIL(t))^((0.1991))∙〖USDI〗_t^((-1.5881))∙〖LIBOR〗_((t-6))^((0.0717) Where, Q_t^D and Q_t^Sare world demand for and supply of copper at time t respectively. P(t-1) is the lagged price of copper, which is the focus of the analysis in this part. GDPt is world gross domestic product at time t, which represents aggregate economic activity. In addition, industrial production should be considered here, so the global industrial production growth that is noted as IPt is included in the model. Tt is the time variable, which is a useful proxy for technological change. A proxy variable for the cost of energy in producing copper is the price of oil at time t, which is noted as POIL(t ) . USDIt is the U.S. dollar index variable at time t, which is an important variable for explaining the copper supply and copper prices. At last, LIBOR(t-6) is the 6-month lagged 1-year London Inter bank offering rate of interest. Although, the model can be applicable for different base metals' industries, the omitted exogenous variables such as the price of substitute or a combined variable related to the price of substitutes have not been considered in this study. Based on this econometric model and using a Monte-Carlo simulation analysis, the probabilities that the monthly average copper prices in 2006 and 2007 will be greater than specific strike price of an option are defined. The final part evaluates risk management strategies including options strategies, metal swaps and simple options in relation to the simulation results. The basic options strategies such as bull spreads, bear spreads and butterfly spreads, which are created by using both call and put options in 2006 and 2007 are evaluated. Consequently, each risk management strategy in 2006 and 2007 is analyzed based on the day of data and the price prediction model. As a result, applications stemming from this project include valuing Asian options, developing a copper price prediction model, forecasting and planning, and decision making for price risk management in the copper market.

Evaluating stress patterns for Plio-Quaternary brittle deformation along the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro fault zone, Central Andes

Understanding the geometry and kinematics of the major structures of an orogen is important to elucidate its style of deformation, as well as its tectonic evolution. We describe the temporal and spatial changes in the state of stress of the trans-orogen area of the Calama-Olacapato-El Toro (COT) Fault Zone in the Central Andes, at about 24°S within the northern portion of the Puna Plateau between the Argentina-Chile border. The importance of the COT derives principally from the Quaternary-Holocene activity recognized on some segments, which may shed new light on its possible control on Quaternary volcanism and on the seismic hazard evaluation of the area. Field geological surveys along with kinematic analysis and numerical inversion of ∼140 new fault-slip measurements have revealed that this portion of the COT zone, previously considered a continuous, long-lived lineament, in reality has been subjected to three different kinematic regimes: 1) a Miocene transpressional phase with the maximum principal stress (σ1) chiefly trending NNE-SSW; 2) an extensional phase that started by 9 Ma, with a horizontal NW-SE-striking minimum principal stress (σ3) – permutations between σ2 and σ3 axes have been recognized at two sites – and 3) a left-lateral strike-slip phase with a horizontal ∼E-W &sigma1 and ∼N-S σ3 dating to the Late Pliocene-Quaternary. Spatially, in the Quaternary, the left-lateral component decreases toward the westernmost tip of the COT, where it transitions to extension; this produced to a N-S horst and graben structure. Hence, even if transcurrence is still active in the eastern portion of the COT, as focal mechanisms of crustal earthquakes indicate, our study demonstrates that extension is becoming the predominant structural style of deformation, at least in the western region. These major temporal and spatial changes in the tectonic regimes are attributed in part to changes in the magnitude of the boundary forces due to subduction processes. The overall orogen-perpendicular extension might be the result of vertical stress larger than both the horizontal stresses induced by gravitational effect of a thickened crust.

Our Lives, Our Thoughts and Our Allegiance: New Immigrants and American Industry in 1914

Through comparative analysis of the immigrant labor forces at work in iron mining in northern Minnesota, coal mining in Illinois, and steel milling in the Calumet region of Chicago and Gary, this paper addresses the forms of social distance separating and marginalizing new immigrants from American society and trade unionism that existed in 1914, the year that marked the end point of mass immigration from Eastern and Southern Europe. The “new immigration” was a labor migration that congregated its subjects overwhelmingly in what were called "unskilled" or "semi-skilled" forms of labor. Skilled work was largely, with certain variations, the preserve of "American" or old immigrant workers. This labor gulf separating new immigrants and American workers was hardened by a spatial separateness. New immigrants often lived in what have been called industrial villages—the mining town or location, the factory neighborhood— striking in their isolation and insularity from mainstream society. This separateness and insularity became a major preoccupation for corporate managers, Progressive reformers, and for American trade unions as new immigrants began to engage in major labor struggles leading up to 1914. But among the three industries, only the union of coal miners, the United Mine Workers, enjoyed success in organizing the new immigrants. In the steel mills and the iron mines, the unions were either rooted out or failed to gain a foothold at all. The explanation for these differences is to be found in the different forms of industrial development among the industries studied.

Teofilo Petriella : Marxist Revolutionary

The paper will examine the role Teofilo Petriella played in splitting Italian communities through Marxist agitation. As a strike leader on Mesabi Iron Range and in Copper Country, Petriella traveled throughout the Great Lakes region. In each community he found supporters among the discontented miners, while also facing strong opposition from Catholic priests and middle class community leaders. By examining his activities in both regions, I will illustrate the connectivity of Italian communities around Lake Superior, while also addressing religious and class conflict amongst the populations.

'Työmies?': Finnish Canadians in the Economy: A Historiographic Overview

Finnish immigrants are often seen as labor activists, even “radicals,” and key players in the “left-right” political divide, thus indicating a real presence on the “other” side of the economy. How did successive historians build these now-standard views? This paper takes a sweeping tour of writing on Finnish Canadian workers, tracing the evolution of these assessments. Archives and histories provided basic notions of “the” Finnish Canadian and were key sources as professional scholars – many Finns themselves – began their work. In Canada, new academics – Varpu Lindstrom most prominently – wrote about women, arts and culture, intellectual activity, and the impact of Finns as “exceptional” historical actors in socioeconomic terms. But, have historians of Finnish Canadian workers built a convincing case? Examination of Finnish Canadian “economic” historiography offers insights into the Finnish Canadian “story,” and the nature of generalization in immigrant and ethnic history.

Federal Authority and the Development of Corporate Mining, 1807-1847

While the 1913-1914 copper country miners’ strike undoubtedly plays an important role in the identity of the Keweenaw Peninsula, it is worth noting that the model of mining corporations employing large numbers of laborers was not a foregone conclusion in the history of American mining. Between 1807 and 1847, public mineral lands in Missouri, in the Upper Mississippi Valley, and along the southern shore of Lake Superior were reserved from sale and subject to administration by the nation’s executive branch. By decree of the federal government, miners in these regions were lessees, not landowners. Yet, in the Wisconsin lead region especially, federal authorities reserved for independent “diggers” the right to prospect virtually unencumbered. In doing so, they preserved a comparatively egalitarian system in which the ability to operate was determined as much by luck as by financial resources. A series of revolts against federal authority in the early nineteenth century gradually encouraged officers in Washington to build a system in the copper country in which only wealthy investors could marshal the resources to both obtain permits and actually commence mining operations. This paper will therefore explore the role of the federal government in establishing a leasing system for public mineral lands in the years previous to the California Gold Rush, highlighting the development of corporate mining which ultimately set a stage for the wave of miners’ strikes in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

The Role of Fraternal Organisation in Migration and Informal Labour Organisations in Mining Communities: Cornwall, the Keweenaw, and California Compared

During the second half of the nineteenth century fraternal and benevolent associations of numerous descriptions grew and prospered in mining communities everywhere. They played an important, but neglected role, in assisting transatlantic migration and movement between mining districts as well as building social capital within emerging mining communities. They helped to build bridges between different ethnic communities, provided conduits between labour and management, and networked miners into the non-mining community. Their influence spread beyond the adult males that made up most of their membership to their wives and families and provided levels of social and economic support otherwise unobtainable at that time. Of course, the influence of these organisations could also be divisive where certain groups or religions were excluded and they may have worked to exacerbate, as much as ameliorate, the problems of community development. This paper will examine some of these issues by looking particularly at the role of Freemasonry and Oddfellowry in Cornwall, Calumet, and Nevada City between 1860 and 1900. Work on fraternity in the Keweenaw was undertaken in Houghton some years ago with a grant from the Copper Country Archive and has since been continued by privately funded research in California and other Western mining states. Some British aspects of this research can be found in my article on mining industrial relations in Labour History Review April 2006

Company Houses Along the Picket Line

Michigan copper mining companies owned and rented more than 3,000 houses along the Keweenaw Peninsula at the time of the 1913-14 copper strike. The provision of company-constructed housing in mining districts has drawn a wide range of inquiry. Mining historians, community planners, architectural historians, and academics interested in the immigrant experience have identified miners' housing as intriguing examples of corporate paternalism, social planning, vernacular adaptation and ethnic segregation. Michigan's Copper Country retains many examples of such housing and recent research has shown that the Michigan copper mining companies championed the use of housing as a non-wage employment benefit. This paper will investigate the increasingly important role of occupancy and control of company housing during the strike. Illustrated with images collected during the strike by the fledgling U.S. Department of Labor, the presentation explores the history of company housing in the Copper Country, its part in a larger system of corporate welfare, and how the threat of evictions may have turned the tide of strike.

Mainari, Farmari, Lumperjäkki, Piika : “Ethnic Identity” and Earning a Living in the Keweenaw and Nickel Belts to 1930

Job seekers in resource-based economic settings like the Keweenaw Peninsula in Upper Michigan and the Nickel Basin surrounding Sudbury, Ontario faced many challenges, from the dangers of the job to corporate domination to the “boom and bust” nature of inevitably limited supplies of even “endless” natural riches. Adding to these many challenges in both settings was the employer view that you were best suited to certain tasks. This paper examines these expectations from “both” ends – how and why did employers see matters this way, and what did the “recipients” make of being cast in certain roles ? Did the newcomers also expect to earn their keep from a limited range of options ? While the last word on this issue awaits a much larger study, even a glance can inform both the scholar of resource settings and the ethnic historian about an important element of resource-based economies. This paper, then, examines the links between stereotype, preference, and necessity – to what extent did local populations fight, appreciate or succumb to expectation when “making a living.” As the title suggests, Finns get significant attention, as befits both settings under study. However, the paper looks to similar trends amongst a broad demographic swathe in each setting. Was “who” you were the crucial element in finding sustenance ? “Ethnic”, Aboriginal, or “established settler society” – what factors shaped economic expectations, choices and roles?

Finnish Fighting Words: Printing the Työmies Translation Project

The Työmies translation project involves the translation of that newspaper’s accounts of significant events from Michigan’s 1913-1914 Copper Strike. Työmies was a Finnish-language newspaper, published in Hancock, Michigan, whose socialist-unionist perspective on the strike differed markedly from that of the local English-language newspapers. This project is the first time significant portions of Työmies have been translated into English. In June of 2013, the presenter printed the translation of the Työmies account of the strike’s first day on a hand-operated Chandler & Price platen press. Thus, the presentation describes this unique project: the translation itself, the presenter’s search for necessary type and equipment, and the printing of the broadsides. The presentation will include a history of Työmies and the Strike, with an emphasis on ways in which human culture and language is reflected in the material culture of printing.

A Balance Shifted: The Unionization of Michigan’s Lake Copper District, 1935-1955

Three decades after the unsuccessful 1913-1914 strike at the Lake District copper mines of Michigan, workers organized as Local 584 of the International Union of Mine, Mill, and Smelter Workers (Mine Mill) signed a union contract with Calumet & Hecla Consolidated Copper Company. C & H was the last and most significant of the region’s three major copper mining companies to unionize during the three-year period from 1939 to 1942. This paper tells the untold history of the successful union drives in the Lake District’s copper mines, starting with Copper Range Company in 1939 and encompassing the subsequent unionizations of Quincy Mining Company and finally C & H. The paper develops thematic connections between the 1913-1914, including Mine Mill’s lineage to the Western Federation of Miners, parallel ethnic dimensions, and, most significantly, the contrasting role of state authority between the two time periods. The paper carries the Lake District’s labor history forward to 1955 to include United Steelworkers’ successful challenge to Mine Mill in 1950 and the strike of 1955. This history also incorporates source material from the papers of highly influential union organizer and representative Eugene Saari, material which to date has not been integrated into the labor history of the region. This paper has not yet been submitted.

ANKLE IMPEDANCE AND ANKLE ANGLES DURING STEP TURN AND STRAIGHT WALK: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE DESIGN OF A STEERABLE ANKLE-FOOT PROSTHETIC ROBOT

During locomotion, turning is a common and recurring event which is largely neglected in the current state-of-the-art ankle-foot prostheses, forcing amputees to use different steering mechanisms for turning, compared to non-amputees. A better understanding of the complexities surrounding lower limb prostheses will lead to increased health and well-being of amputees. The aim of this research is to develop a steerable ankle-foot prosthesis that mimics the human ankle mechanical properties. Experiments were developed to estimate the mechanical impedance of the ankle and the ankles angles during straight walk and step turn. Next, this information was used in the design of a prototype, powered steerable ankle-foot prosthesis with two controllable degrees of freedom. One of the possible approaches in design of the prosthetic robots is to use the human joints’ parameters, especially their impedance. A series of experiments were conducted to estimate the stochastic mechanical impedance of the human ankle when muscles were fully relaxed and co-contracting antagonistically. A rehabilitation robot for the ankle, Anklebot, was employed to provide torque perturbations to the ankle. The experiments were performed in two different configurations, one with relaxed muscles, and one with 10% of maximum voluntary contraction (MVC). Surface electromyography (sEMG) was used to monitor muscle activation levels and these sEMG signals were displayed to subjects who attempted to maintain them constant. Time histories of ankle torques and angles in the lateral/medial (LM) directions, inversion-eversion (IE), and dorsiflexionplantarflexion (DP) were recorded. Linear time-invariant transfer functions between the measured torques and angles were estimated providing an estimate of ankle mechanical impedance. High coherence was observed over a frequency range up to 30 Hz. The main effect of muscle activation was to increase the magnitude of ankle mechanical impedance in all degrees of freedom of the ankle. Another experiment compared the three-dimensional angles of the ankle during step turn and straight walking. These angles were measured to be used for developing the control strategy of the ankle-foot prosthesis. An infrared camera system was used to track the trajectories and angles of the foot and leg. The combined phases of heel strike and loading response, mid stance, and terminal stance and pre-swing were determined and used to measure the average angles at each combined phase. The Range of motion (ROM) in IE increased during turning while ML rotation decreased and DP changed the least. During the turning step, ankle displacement in DP started with similar angles to straight walk and progressively showed less plantarflexion. In IE, the ankle showed increased inversion leaning the body toward the inside of the turn. ML rotation initiated with an increased medial rotation during the step turn relative to the straight walk transitioning to increased lateral rotation at the toe off. A prototype ankle-foot prosthesis capable of controlling both DP and IE using a cable driven mechanism was developed and assessed as part of a feasibility study. The design is capable of reproducing the angles required for straight walk and step turn; generates 712N of lifting force in plantarflexion, and shows passive stiffness comparable to a nonload bearing ankle impedance. To evaluate the performance of the ankle-foot prosthesis, a circular treadmill was developed to mimic human gait during steering. Preliminary results show that the device can appropriately simulate human gait with loading and unloading the ankle joint during the gait in circular paths.

EVALUATION OF THE EVOLVING STRESS FIELD OF THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANIC PLATEAU FROM 1988 TO 2010 FROM EARTHQUAKE FIRST MOTIONS INVERSION

Within the Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, the silicic Yellowstone volcanic field is one of the most active volcanic systems all over the world. Although the last rhyolite eruption occurred around 70,000 years ago, Yellowstone is still believed to be volcanically active, due to high hydrothermal and seismic activity. The earthquake data used in this study cover the period of time between 1988 and 2010. Earthquake relocations and a set of 369 well-constrained, double-couple, focal mechanism solutions were computed. Events were grouped according to location and time to investigate trends in faulting. The majority of the events has oblique, normal-faulting solutions. The overall direction of extension throughout the 0.64 Ma Yellowstone caldera looks nearly ENE, consistently with the direction of alignments of volcanic vents within the caldera, but detailed study revealed spatial and temporal variations. Stress-field solutions for different areas and time periods were calculated from earthquake focal mechanism inversion. A well-resolved rotation of σ3 was found, from NNE-SSW near the Hebgen Lake fault zone, to ENE-WSW near Norris Junction. In particular, the σ3 direction changed throughout the years in the Norris Junction area, from being ENE-WSW, as calculated in the study by Waite and Smith (2004), to NNE-SSW, while the other σ3 directions are mostly unchanged over time. The Yellowstone caldera was subject to periods of net uplift and subsidence over the past century, explained in previous studies as caused by expanding or contracting sills, at different depths. Based on the models used to explain these deformation periods, we investigated the relationship between variability in aseismic deformation and seismic activity and faulting styles. Focal mechanisms and P and T axes were divided into temporal and depth intervals, in order to identify spatial or temporal trends in deformation. The presence of “chocolate tablet” structures, with composite dilational faults, was identified in many stages of the deformation history both in the Norris Geyser Basin area and inside the caldera. Strike-slip component movement was found in a depth interval below a contracting sill, indicating the movement of magma towards the caldera.