An improved simple rat model for global cerebral ischaemia by induced cardiac arrest

OBJECTIVES Cerebral hypoxic-ischaemic injury following cardiac arrest is a devastating disease affecting thousands of patients each year. There is a complex interaction between post-resuscitation injury after whole-body ischaemia-reperfusion and cerebral damage which cannot be explored in in vitro systems only; there is a need for animal models. In this study, we describe and evaluate the feasibility and efficiency of our simple rodent cardiac arrest model. METHODS Ten wistar rats were subjected to 9 and 10 minutes of cardiac arrest. Cardiac arrest was introduced with a mixture of the short-acting beta-blocking drug esmolol and potassium chloride. RESULTS All animals could be resuscitated within 1 minute, and survived until day 5.General health score and neurobehavioural testing indicated substantial impairment after cardiac arrest, without differences between groups. Histological examination of the hippocampus CA1 segment, the most vulnerable segment of the cerebrum, demonstrated extensive damage in the cresyl violet staining, as well as in the Fluoro-Jade B staining and in the Iba-1 staining, indicating recruitment of microglia after the hypoxic-ischaemic event. Again, there were no differences between the 9- and 10-minute cardiac arrest groups. DISCUSSION We were able to establish a simple and reproducible 9- and 10-minute rodent cardiac arrest models with a well-defined no-flow-time. Extensive damage can be found in the hippocampus CA1 segment. The lack of difference between 9- and 10-minute cardiac arrest time in the neuropsychological, the open field test and the histological evaluations is mainly due to the small sample size.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

An Urn Model for Cascading Failures on a Lattice

A cascading failure is a failure in a system of interconnected parts, in which the breakdown of one element can lead to the subsequent collapse of the others. The aim of this paper is to introduce a simple combinatorial model for the study of cascading failures. In particular, having in mind particle systems and Markov random fields, we take into consideration a network of interacting urns displaced over a lattice. Every urn is Pólya-like and its reinforcement matrix is not only a function of time (time contagion) but also of the behavior of the neighboring urns (spatial contagion), and of a random component, which can represent either simple fate or the impact of exogenous factors. In this way a non-trivial dependence structure among the urns is built, and it is used to study default avalanches over the lattice. Thanks to its flexibility and its interesting probabilistic properties, the given construction may be used to model different phenomena characterized by cascading failures such as power grids and financial networks.

Potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients: derivation and validation of a prediction model

IMPORTANCE Because effective interventions to reduce hospital readmissions are often expensive to implement, a score to predict potentially avoidable readmissions may help target the patients most likely to benefit. OBJECTIVE To derive and internally validate a prediction model for potentially avoidable 30-day hospital readmissions in medical patients using administrative and clinical data readily available prior to discharge. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. SETTING Academic medical center in Boston, Massachusetts. PARTICIPANTS All patient discharges from any medical services between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions to 3 hospitals of the Partners HealthCare network were identified using a validated computerized algorithm based on administrative data (SQLape). A simple score was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with two-thirds of the sample randomly selected as the derivation cohort and one-third as the validation cohort. RESULTS Among 10 731 eligible discharges, 2398 discharges (22.3%) were followed by a 30-day readmission, of which 879 (8.5% of all discharges) were identified as potentially avoidable. The prediction score identified 7 independent factors, referred to as the HOSPITAL score: h emoglobin at discharge, discharge from an o ncology service, s odium level at discharge, p rocedure during the index admission, i ndex t ype of admission, number of a dmissions during the last 12 months, and l ength of stay. In the validation set, 26.7% of the patients were classified as high risk, with an estimated potentially avoidable readmission risk of 18.0% (observed, 18.2%). The HOSPITAL score had fair discriminatory power (C statistic, 0.71) and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This simple prediction model identifies before discharge the risk of potentially avoidable 30-day readmission in medical patients. This score has potential to easily identify patients who may need more intensive transitional care interventions.

Geometry-Aware Multiscale Image Registration via OBBTree-Based Polyaffine Log-Demons

Non-linear image registration is an important tool in many areas of image analysis. For instance, in morphometric studies of a population of brains, free-form deformations between images are analyzed to describe the structural anatomical variability. Such a simple deformation model is justified by the absence of an easy expressible prior about the shape changes. Applying the same algorithms used in brain imaging to orthopedic images might not be optimal due to the difference in the underlying prior on the inter-subject deformations. In particular, using an un-informed deformation prior often leads to local minima far from the expected solution. To improve robustness and promote anatomically meaningful deformations, we propose a locally affine and geometry-aware registration algorithm that automatically adapts to the data. We build upon the log-domain demons algorithm and introduce a new type of OBBTree-based regularization in the registration with a natural multiscale structure. The regularization model is composed of a hierarchy of locally affine transformations via their logarithms. Experiments on mandibles show improved accuracy and robustness when used to initialize the demons, and even similar performance by direct comparison to the demons, with a significantly lower degree of freedom. This closes the gap between polyaffine and non-rigid registration and opens new ways to statistically analyze the registration results.

Transport of 234U in the Opalinus Clay on centimetre to decimetre scales

The Opalinus Clay formation in North Switzerland is a potential host rock for a deep underground radioactive waste repository. The distribution of U-238, U-234 and Th-230 was studied in rock samples of the Opalinus Clay from an exploratory borehole at Benken (Canton of Zurich) using MC-ICP-MS. The aim of U-234 was to assess the in situ, long-term migration behaviour in this rock. Very low hydraulic conductivities of the Opalinus Clay, reducing potential of the pore water and its chemical equilibrium with the host rock are expected to render both U-238 and Th-230 immobile. If U is heterogeneously distributed in the Opalinus Clay, gradients in the supply of U-234 from the rock matrix to the pore water by the decay of U-238 will be established. Diffusive redistribution separates U-234 from its immobile parent U-238 resulting in bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity disequilibria. These may provide a means of estimating the mobility of U-234 in the rock if the diffusion rate of U-234 is significant compared to its decay rate. Sampling was carried out on two scales. Drilling of cm-spaced samples from the drill-core was done to study mobility over short distances and elucidate possible small-scale lithological control. Homogenized 25-cm-long portions of a 2-m-long drill-core section were prepared to provide information on transport over a longer distance. Variations in U and/or Th content on the cm-scale between clays and carbonate-sandy layers are revealed by beta-scanning, which shows that the (dominant) clay is richer in both elements. Samples were digested using aqua regia followed by total HF dissolution, yielding two fractions. in all studied samples U was found to be concentrated in the HF digestion fraction. It has a high U/Th ratio and a study by SEM-EDS points to sub-mu m up to several mu m in size zircon grains as the main U-rich phase. This fraction consistently has U-234/U-238 activity ratios below unity. The minute zircon grains constitute the major reservoir of U in the rock and act as constant rate suppliers of U-234 into the rock matrix and the pore water. The aqua regia leach fraction was found to be enriched in Th, and complementary to the HF fraction, having U-234/U-238 activity ratios above unity. It is believed that these U activity ratios reflect the surplus of having U-234 delivered from the zircon grains. Some cm-spaced samples show bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios that are markedly out of equilibrium. In most of them a striking negative correlation between the total U content and the bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios is observed. This is interpreted to indicate net U-234 transfer from regions of higher supply of U-234 towards those of lower supply which is, in most cases, equivalent to transfer from clayey towards carbonate/sandy portions of the rock. In contrast, the 25 cm averaged samples all have uniform bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios in equilibrium, indicating U immobility in the last 1-1.5 Ma on this spatial scale. It is concluded that the small-scale lithological variations which govern U spatial distribution in the Opalinus Clay are the major factor determining U-234 in situ supply rates, regulating its diffusive fluxes and controlling the observed bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios. A simple box-model is presented to simulate the measured bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios and to give an additional insight into the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Groundwater age distributions at a public drinking water supply well field derived from multiple age tracers (⁸⁵Kr, ³H/³He, and ³⁹Ar)

Groundwater age is a key aspect of production well vulnerability. Public drinking water supply wells typically have long screens and are expected to produce a mixture of groundwater ages. The groundwater age distributions of seven production wells of the Holten well field (Netherlands) were estimated from tritium-helium (3H/3He), krypton-85 (85Kr), and argon-39 (39Ar), using a new application of a discrete age distribution model and existing mathematical models, by minimizing the uncertainty-weighted squared differences of modeled and measured tracer concentrations. The observed tracer concentrations fitted well to a 4-bin discrete age distribution model or a dispersion model with a fraction of old groundwater. Our results show that more than 75 of the water pumped by four shallow production wells has a groundwater age of less than 20 years and these wells are very vulnerable to recent surface contamination. More than 50 of the water pumped by three deep production wells is older than 60 years. 3H/3He samples from short screened monitoring wells surrounding the well field constrained the age stratification in the aquifer. The discrepancy between the age stratification with depth and the groundwater age distribution of the production wells showed that the well field preferentially pumps from the shallow part of the aquifer. The discrete groundwater age distribution model appears to be a suitable approach in settings where the shape of the age distribution cannot be assumed to follow a simple mathematical model, such as a production well field where wells compete for capture area.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

The Yanque prospect (Peru): from polymetallic Zn-Pb mineralization to a nonsulfide deposit

The Yanque nonsulfide Pb-Zn deposit (inferred resources 12.5 Mt @ 3.7% Pb and @ 3.5% Zn) is located in the Andahuaylas-Yauri ore province (Cuzco, southern Peru). The deposit occurs within a base metal mineralized district, centered on the medium-sized Dolores porphyry copper. A thorough geological, mineralogical and geochemical study has carried out in order to define: the relationships between the Dolores Cu-porphyry ore and the Yanque Zn-Pb polymetallic mineralization, and the characteristics of the economic nonsulfide concentrations. Both sedimentary and igneous rocks constitute the backbone of the Yanque-Dolores area. The sedimentary lithologies belong to the Soraya, Mara and Ferrobamba Fms. (upper Jurassic-middle Cretaceous). The Yanque orebody is hosted by the Mara Fm., which prevailingly consists of a siliciclastic sedimentary breccia. The original sulfide mineralization consisted of galena, pyrite and sphalerite. The host rock has been affected by a strong hydrothermal alteration, characterized by prevailing sericite/illite, as in the typical porphyry-related phyllic-argillic alteration stage, and by minor kaolinite, dolomite and quartz. Minor element geochemistry, characterized by Sb, As, Mn, Ag and locally also by Cu, points to magmatic-hydrothermal related mineralizing fluids. The Pb isotopic compositions from Dolores and Yanque sulfides are similar, and are typical of the Tertiary magmatically-derived ores in this part of Peru. The hydrothermally altered rocks at Yanque have the same Pb isotopic compositions as the sulfides, thus confirming the hypothesis that the Yanque primary Zn-Pb mineralization may have been produced by hydrothermal circulation related to the emplacement of the Dolores Cu-porphyry, as it is the case of other porphyry Cu systems associated with polymetallic mineralization elsewhere. However, no simple genetic model for the mineralization involving just one fluid circulation episode is able to explain the data. The Yanque economic nonsulfide ore association consists of sauconite, hemimorphite, smithsonite and cerussite, which result from the weathering and alteration of the original sulfide mineralization. Zinc is allocated mainly in sauconite (Zn-smectite), rather than in carbonates: a factor strictly related to the prevailing siliciclastic character of the host rock. Distinctive features of the Yanque orebody are the comparable ore grades for both Pb and Zn (3.5% Zn and 3.7% Pb), and the inverse supergene chemical zoning. In fact, contrary to other supergene ores of this type, zinc prevails in the top zone of the Yanque deposit, whereas lead content increases with depth. Considering the different mobility of the two metals in solution, it may be assumed that most of the primary zinc that was the source for the Yanque nonsulfides was originally located far from the position occupied by the galena mineralization, whose remnants have been observed on site. Zinc sulfides may have been originally contained in the eroded rock volumes that surrounded the actual deposit: the zinc-rich solutions have possibly migrated through the siliciclastic Mara Fm. and precipitated the nonsulfide minerals by porosity filling and replacement processes. In this sense, the Yanque secondary Zn-Pb deposit could be considered as a special type of “Exotic” mineralization.

Bipartite graphs and quasipositive surfaces

We present a simple combinatorial model for quasipositive surfaces and positive braids, based on embedded bipartite graphs. As a first application, we extend the well-known duality on standard diagrams of torus links to twisted torus links. We then introduce a combinatorial notion of adjacency for bipartite graph links and discuss its potential relation with the adjacency problem for plane curve singularities.

Terrestrial Radar Interferometric Measurement of Hillslope Deformation and Atmospheric Disturbances in the Illgraben Debris-Flow Catchment, Switzerland

We describe a method for rapid identification and precise quantification of slope deformation using a portable radar interferometer. A rockslide with creep-like behavior was identified in the rugged and inaccessible headwaters of the Illgraben debris-flow catchment, located in the Central Swiss Alps. The estimated volume of the moving rock mass was approximately 0.5 x 10(6) m(3) with a maximum daily (3-D) displacement rate of 3 mm. Fast scene acquisition in the order of 6 s/scene led to uniquely precise mapping of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric phase delay. Observations led to a simple qualitative model for prediction of atmospheric disturbances using a simple model for solar radiation, which can be used for advanced campaign planning for short observation periods (hours to days).

Chow–Liu trees are sufficient predictive models for reproducing key features of functional networks of periictal EEG time-series

Seizure freedom in patients suffering from pharmacoresistant epilepsies is still not achieved in 20–30% of all cases. Hence, current therapies need to be improved, based on a more complete understanding of ictogenesis. In this respect, the analysis of functional networks derived from intracranial electroencephalographic (iEEG) data has recently become a standard tool. Functional networks however are purely descriptive models and thus are conceptually unable to predict fundamental features of iEEG time-series, e.g., in the context of therapeutical brain stimulation. In this paper we present some first steps towards overcoming the limitations of functional network analysis, by showing that its results are implied by a simple predictive model of time-sliced iEEG time-series. More specifically, we learn distinct graphical models (so called Chow–Liu (CL) trees) as models for the spatial dependencies between iEEG signals. Bayesian inference is then applied to the CL trees, allowing for an analytic derivation/prediction of functional networks, based on thresholding of the absolute value Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) matrix. Using various measures, the thus obtained networks are then compared to those which were derived in the classical way from the empirical CC-matrix. In the high threshold limit we find (a) an excellent agreement between the two networks and (b) key features of periictal networks as they have previously been reported in the literature. Apart from functional networks, both matrices are also compared element-wise, showing that the CL approach leads to a sparse representation, by setting small correlations to values close to zero while preserving the larger ones. Overall, this paper shows the validity of CL-trees as simple, spatially predictive models for periictal iEEG data. Moreover, we suggest straightforward generalizations of the CL-approach for modeling also the temporal features of iEEG signals.

Constraining planet structure from stellar chemistry: the cases of CoRoT-7, Kepler-10, and Kepler-93

Aims. We explore the possibility that the stellar relative abundances of different species can be used to constrain the bulk abundances of known transiting rocky planets. Methods. We use high resolution spectra to derive stellar parameters and chemical abundances for Fe, Si, Mg, O, and C in three stars hosting low mass, rocky planets: CoRoT-7, Kepler-10, and Kepler-93. These planets follow the same line along the mass-radius diagram, pointing toward a similar composition. The derived abundance ratios are compared with the solar values. With a simple stoichiometric model, we estimate the iron mass fraction in each planet, assuming stellar composition. Results. We show that in all cases, the iron mass fraction inferred from the mass-radius relationship seems to be in good agreement with the iron abundance derived from the host star's photospheric composition. Conclusions. The results suggest that stellar abundances can be used to add constraints on the composition of orbiting rocky planets.

Constraining porewater chemistry in a 250m thick argillaceous rock sequence

The geochemistry of an argillaceous rock sequence from a deep borehole in NE-Switzerland was investigated. The focus was to constrain the porewater chemistry in low permeability Jurassic rocks comprising the Liassic, the Opalinus Clay formation, the 'Brown Dogger' unit and the Effingen Member (Malm). A multi-method approach including mineralogical analysis, aqueous and Ni-ethylenediamine extraction, squeezing tests and pCO(2) measurements as well as geochemical modelling was applied for this purpose. A consistent dataset was obtained with regard to the main solutes in the porewaters. A fairly constant anion-accessible porosity of similar to 50% of the total porosity was deduced for all analysed samples which displayed variable clay-mineral contents. Sulphate concentrations were shown to be constrained by a sulphate-bearing phase, presumably by celestite or a Sr-Ba sulphate. Application of a simple equilibrium model, including cation exchange reactions, calcite and celestite equilibrium showed good agreement with squeezing data, indicating the suitability of the modelling approach to simulate porewater chemistry in the studied argillaceous rocks. The modelling highlighted the importance of correct determination of the exchangeable cation population. The analysis corroborates that squeezing of the studied rocks is a viable and efficient way to sample porewater.