Cost-effective intervention thresholds against osteoporotic fractures based on FRAX® in Switzerland

FRAX-based cost-effective intervention thresholds in the Swiss setting were determined. Assuming a willingness to pay at 2× Gross Domestic Product per capita, an intervention aimed at reducing fracture risk in women and men with a 10-year probability for a major osteoporotic fracture at or above 15% is cost-effective.

Chlamydia control activities in Europe: cross-sectional survey

Background: Chlamydia is the most commonly reported bacterial sexually transmitted infection in Europe. The objective of the Screening for Chlamydia in Europe (SCREen) project was to describe current and planned chlamydia control activities in Europe. Methods: The authors sent a questionnaire asking about different aspects of chlamydia epidemiology and control to public health and clinical experts in each country in 2007. The principles of sexually transmitted infection control were used to develop a typology comprising five categories of chlamydia control activities. Each country was assigned to a category, based on responses to the questionnaire. Results: Experts in 29 of 33 (88%) invited countries responded. Thirteen of 29 countries (45%) had no current chlamydia control activities. Six countries in this group stated that there were plans to introduce chlamydia screening programmes. There were five countries (17%) with case management guidelines only. Three countries (10%) also recommended case finding amongst partners of diagnosed chlamydia cases or people with another sexually transmitted infection. Six countries (21%) further specified groups of asymptomatic people eligible for opportunistic chlamydia testing. Two countries (7%) reported a chlamydia screening programme. There was no consistent association between the per capita gross domestic product of a country and the intensity of chlamydia control activities (P = 0.816). Conclusion: A newly developed classification system allowed the breadth of ongoing national chlamydia control activities to be described and categorized. Chlamydia control strategies should ensure that clinical guidelines to optimize chlamydia diagnosis and case management have been implemented before considering the appropriateness of screening programmes.

Health care for older persons in Switzerland: a country profile

Switzerland has the second-most-expensive healthcare system worldwide, with 11.5% of gross domestic product spent on health care in 2003. Switzerland has a healthcare system with universal insurance coverage and a social insurance system, ensuring an adequate financial situation for 96% of the 1.1 million older inhabitants. Key concerns related to the care of older persons are topics such as increasing healthcare costs, growing public awareness of patient autonomy, and challenges related to assisted suicide. In 2004, the Swiss Academy of Medical Sciences issued guidelines for the care of disabled older persons. Since 2000, geriatrics has been a board-certified discipline with a 3-year training program in addition to 5 years of training in internal or family medicine. There are approximately 125 certified geriatricians in Switzerland, working primarily in geriatric centers in urban areas. Switzerland has an excellent research environment, ranking second of all countries worldwide in life sciences research-but only 13th in aging research. This is in part due to a lack of specific training programs promoting research on aging and inadequate funding. In addition, there is a shortage of academic geriatricians in Switzerland, in part due to the fact that two of five Swiss universities had no academic geriatric departments in 2005. With more-adequate financial resources for academic geriatrics, Switzerland would have the opportunity to contribute more to aging research internationally and to improved care for older patients.

Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

Estimating population and livestock density of mobile pastoralists and sedentary settlements in the southeastern Lake Chad area

Mobile pastoralists provide major contributions to the gross domestic product in Chad, but little information is available regarding their demography. The Lake Chad area population is increasing, resulting in competition for scarce land and water resources. For the first time, the density of people and animals from mobile and sedentary populations was assessed using randomly defined sampling areas. Four sampling rounds were conducted over two years in the same areas to show population density dynamics. We identified 42 villages of sedentary communities in the sampling zones; 11 (in 2010) and 16 (in 2011) mobile pastoralist camps at the beginning of the dry season and 34 (in 2011) and 30 (in 2012) camps at the end of the dry season. A mean of 64.0 people per km2 (95% confidence interval, 20.3-107.8) were estimated to live in sedentary villages. In the mobile communities, we found 5.9 people per km2 at the beginning and 17.5 people per km2 at the end of the dry season. We recorded per km2 on average 21.0 cattle and 31.6 small ruminants in the sedentary villages and 66.1 cattle and 102.5 small ruminants in the mobile communities, which amounts to a mean of 86.6 tropical livestock units during the dry season. These numbers exceed, by up to five times, the published carrying capacities for similar Sahelian zones. Our results underline the need for a new institutional framework. Improved land use management must equally consider the needs of mobile communities and sedentary populations.

Global carbon budget 2013

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Political process and government growth: a theoretical and empirical investigation

A striking feature of virtually al western industrialized countries sice the middle of the past century has been the persistent growth of their government sector. From the beginning of the century to the late 1970's, the government expenditures' share of gross national product has increased from 7% to 36% in the U.S., 11% to 40% in the U.K., and 3% to 25% in Japan. In Germany, it went from 7% to 42% (1872-1978), while in France it soared from 11% to 59% (1872-1979). The evolution of the number of government employees followed a similar pattern. In the U.S., for instance, the average annual rate of growth of the government labor force over the period 1899-1974 has been 3.17%, compared to a 1.62% average annual growth rate of the working population. Less quantifiable aspects like the number and scope of regulations also refelct a growing public sector.

Homicide-suicides compared to homicides and suicides: systematic review and meta-analysis.

Homicide-suicides, the murder of one or several individuals followed by the suicide of the perpetrator, are rare but have devastating effects on families and communities. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing perpetrators of homicide-suicides with perpetrators of simple homicides and suicides and examined the proportion of firearm use and its correlation with firearm availability. We searched Medline and Embase from inception to July 2012 and identified 27 eligible studies. Perpetrators of homicide-suicides were older and more likely to be male and married to or separated from their victims than perpetrator of simple homicides or suicides. Influence of alcohol and a history of domestic violence or unemployment were less prevalent in homicide-suicides than in homicides. The proportion of firearm use in homicide-suicides varied across countries and was highest in the USA, Switzerland and South Africa, followed by Australia, Canada, The Netherlands and England and Wales, with a strong correlation between the use of firearms and the level of civilian gun ownership in the country. Our results indicate that homicide-suicides represent a distinct entity, with characteristics distinguishing them both from homicides and suicides.

Legal Implications of the Use of Export Taxes in Addressing Carbon Leakage: Competing Border Adjustment Measures

The prevailing uncertainties about the future of the post-Kyoto international legal framework for climate mitigation and adaptation increase the likelihood of unilateral trade interventions that aim to address climate policy concerns, as exemplified by the controversial European Union initiative to include the aviation industry in its emissions trading system. The emerging literature suggests that border carbon adjustment (BCA) measures imposed by importing countries would lead to substantial legal complications in relation to World Trade Organization law and hence to possible trade disputes. Lack of legal clarity on BCAs is exacerbated by potential counter or pre-emptive export restrictions that exporting countries might impose on carbon-intensive products. In this context, this paper investigates the interface between legal and welfare implications of competing unilateral BCA measures. It argues that carbon export taxes will be an inevitable part of the future climate change regime in the absence of a multilateral agreement. It also describes the channels through which competing BCAs may lead to trade conflicts and political complications as a result of their distributional and welfare impacts at the domestic and global levels.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. Based on energy statistics, we estimate that the global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production were 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, 3.0 percent above 2010 levels. We project these emissions will increase by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of Gross World Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. Global net CO2 emissions from Land-Use Change, including deforestation, are more difficult to update annually because of data availability, but combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation and models suggests those net emissions were 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and reached 391.38 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011, increasing 1.70 ± 0.09 ppm yr−1 or 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1 in 2011. Estimates from four ocean models suggest that the ocean CO2 sink was 2.6 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1 in 2011, implying a global residual terrestrial CO2 sink of 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.

Epidemic of Salmonellosis in Passerine Birds in Switzerland With Spillover to Domestic Cats

A die-off of passerine birds, mostly Eurasian siskins (Carduelis spinus), occurred in multiple areas of Switzerland between February and March 2010. Several of the dead birds were submitted for full necropsy. Bacteriological examination was carried out on multiple tissues of each bird. At gross examination, common findings were light-tan nodules, 1 to 4 mm in diameter, scattered through the esophagus/crop. Histologically, a necroulcerative transmural esophagitis/ingluvitis was observed. Bacterial cultures yielded Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Typhimurium. At the same time, 2 pet clinics reported an unusual increase of domestic cats presented with fever, anorexia, occasionally dolent abdomen, and history of presumed consumption of passerine birds. Analysis of rectal swabs revealed the presence of S. Typhimurium in all tested cats. PFGE (pulsed field electrophoresis) analysis was performed to characterize and compare the bacterial isolates, and it revealed an indistinguishable pattern between all the avian and all but 1 of the feline isolates. Cloacal swabs collected from clinically healthy migrating Eurasian siskins (during autumn 2010) did not yield S. Typhimurium. The histological and bacteriological findings were consistent with a systemic infection caused by S. Typhimurium. Isolation of the same serovar from the dead birds and ill cats, along with the overlapping results of the PFGE analysis for all the animal species, confirmed a spillover from birds to cats through predation. The sudden increase of the number of siskins over the Swiss territory and their persistency during the whole winter of 2009-2010 is considered the most likely predisposing factor for the onset of the epidemic.

Neotethys closure history of Anatolia: insights from 40Ar–39Ar geochronology and P–T estimation in high pressure metasedimentary rocks

The multiple high-pressure (HP), low-temperature (LT) metamorphic units of Western and Central Anatolia offer a great opportunity to investigate the subduction- and continental accretion-related evolution of the eastern limb of the long-lived Aegean subduction system. Recent reports of the HP–LT index mineral Fe-Mg-carpholite in three metasedimentary units of the Gondwana-derived Anatolide–Tauride continental block (namely the Afyon Zone, the Ören Unit and the southern Menderes Massif) suggest a more complicated scenario than the single-continental accretion model generally put forward in previous studies. This study presents the first isotopic dates (white mica 40Ar–39Ar geochronology), and where possible are combined with P–T estimates (chlorite thermometry, phengite barometry, multi-equilibrium thermobarometry), on carpholite-bearing rocks from these three HP–LT metasedimentary units. It is shown that, in the Afyon Zone, carpholite-bearing assemblages were retrogressed through greenschist-facies conditions at c. 67–62 Ma. Early retrograde stages in the Ören Unit are dated to 63–59 Ma. In the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit (HP Mesozoic cover of the southern Menderes Massif), HP retrograde stages are dated to c. 45 Ma, and post-collisional cooling to c. 26 Ma. These new results support that the Ören Unit represents the westernmost continuation of the Afyon Zone, whereas the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit correlates with the Cycladic Blueschist Unit of the Aegean Domain. In Western Anatolia, three successive HP–LT metamorphic belts thus formed: the northernmost Tavşanlı Zone (c. 88–82 Ma), the Ören–Afyon Zone (between 70 and 65 Ma), and the Kurudere–Nebiler Unit (c. 52–45 Ma). The southward younging trend of the HP–LT metamorphism from the upper and internal to the deeper and more external structural units, as in the Aegean Domain, points to the persistence of subduction in Western Anatolia between 93–90 and c. 35 Ma. After the accretion of the Menderes–Tauride terrane, in Eocene times, subduction stopped, leading to continental collision and associated Barrovian-type metamorphism. Because, by contrast, the Aegean subduction did remain active due to slab roll-back and trench migration, the eastern limb (below Southwestern Anatolia) of the Hellenic slab was dramatically curved and consequently teared. It therefore is suggested that the possibility for subduction to continue after the accretion of buoyant (e.g. continental) terranes probably depends much on palaeogeography.

Deposition History of Polychlorinated Biphenyls to the Lomonosovfonna Glacier, Svalbard: A 209 Congener Analysis

A 37 m deep ice core representing 1957–2009 and snow from 2009 to 2010 were collected on the Lomonosovfonna glacier, Svalbard (78.82° N; 17.43° E) and analyzed for 209 polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners using high-resolution mass spectrometry. Congener profiles in all samples showed the prevalence of tetra- and pentachlorobiphenyls, dominated in all samples by PCB-44, PCB-52, PCB-70 + PCB-74, PCB-87 + PCB-97, PCB-95, PCB-99, PCB-101, and PCB-110. The ∑PCB flux varied over time, but the peak flux, 19 pg cm–2 year–1 from 1957 to 1966, recurred in 1974–1983, 1998–2009, and 2009–2010. The minimum was 5.75 pg cm–2 year–1 in 1989–1998, following a 15 year decline. Peak ∑PCB fluxes here are lower than measured in the Canadian Arctic. The analysis of all 209 congeners revealed that PCB-11 (3,3′-dichlorobiphenyl) was present in all samples, representing 0.9–4.5% of ∑PCB. PCB-11 was not produced in a commercial PCB product, and its source to the Arctic has not been well-characterized; however, our results confirm that the sources to Lomonosovfonna have been active since 1957. The higher fluxes of ∑PCB correspond to periods when average 5 day air mass back trajectories have a frequency of 8–10% and reach 60° N or beyond over northern Europe and western Russia or the North Sea into the U.K