Inventory of veterinary syndromic surveillance initiatives in Europe (Triple-S project): current situation and perspectives.

Within the current context that favours the emergence of new diseases, syndromic surveillance (SyS) appears increasingly more relevant tool for the early detection of unexpected health events. The Triple-S project (Syndromic Surveillance Systems in Europe), co-financed by the European Commission, was launched in September 2010 for a three year period to promote both human and animal health SyS in European countries. Objectives of the project included performing an inventory of current and planned European animal health SyS systems and promoting knowledge transfer between SyS experts. This study presents and discusses the results of the Triple-S inventory of European veterinary SyS initiatives. European SyS systems were identified through an active process based on a questionnaire sent to animal health experts involved in SyS in Europe. Results were analyzed through a descriptive analysis and a multiple factor analysis (MFA) in order to establish a typology of the European SyS initiatives. Twenty seven European SyS systems were identified from twelve countries, at different levels of development, from project phase to active systems. Results of this inventory showed a real interest of European countries for SyS but also highlighted the novelty of this field. This survey highlighted the diversity of SyS systems in Europe in terms of objectives, population targeted, data providers, indicators monitored. For most SyS initiatives, statistical analysis of surveillance results was identified as a limitation in using the data. MFA results distinguished two types of systems. The first one belonged to the private sector, focused on companion animals and had reached a higher degree of achievement. The second one was based on mandatory collected data, targeted livestock species and is still in an early project phase. The exchange of knowledge between human and animal health sectors was considered useful to enhance SyS. In the same way that SyS is complementary to traditional surveillance, synergies between human and animal health SyS could be an added value, most notably to enhance timeliness, sensitivity and help interpreting non-specific signals.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

A practical approach to designing syndromic surveillance systems for livestock and poultry

The field of animal syndromic surveillance (SyS) is growing, with many systems being developed worldwide. Now is an appropriate time to share ideas and lessons learned from early SyS design and implementation. Based on our practical experience in animal health SyS, with additions from the public health and animal health SyS literature, we put forward for discussion a 6-step approach to designing SyS systems for livestock and poultry. The first step is to formalise policy and surveillance goals which are considerate of stakeholder expectations and reflect priority issues (1). Next, it is important to find consensus on national priority diseases and identify current surveillance gaps. The geographic, demographic, and temporal coverage of the system must be carefully assessed (2). A minimum dataset for SyS that includes the essential data to achieve all surveillance objectives while minimizing the amount of data collected should be defined. One can then compile an inventory of the data sources available and evaluate each using the criteria developed (3). A list of syndromes should then be produced for all data sources. Cases can be classified into syndrome classes and the data can be converted into time series (4). Based on the characteristics of the syndrome-time series, the length of historic data available and the type of outbreaks the system must detect, different aberration detection algorithms can be tested (5). Finally, it is essential to develop a minimally acceptable response protocol for each statistical signal produced (6). Important outcomes of this pre-operational phase should be building of a national network of experts and collective action and evaluation plans. While some of the more applied steps (4 and 5) are currently receiving consideration, more emphasis should be put on earlier conceptual steps by decision makers and surveillance developers (1-3).

Evaluation of Swiss slaughterhouse data for integration in a syndromic surveillance system

BACKGROUND: We evaluated Swiss slaughterhouse data for integration in a national syndromic surveillance system for the early detection of emerging diseases in production animals. We analysed meat inspection data for cattle, pigs and small ruminants slaughtered between 2007 and 2012 (including emergency slaughters of sick/injured animals); investigating patterns in the number of animals slaughtered and condemned; the reasons invoked for whole carcass condemnations; reporting biases and regional effects. RESULTS: Whole carcass condemnation rates were fairly uniform (1-2‰) over time and between the different types of production animals. Condemnation rates were much higher and less uniform following emergency slaughters. The number of condemnations peaked in December for both cattle and pigs, a time when individuals of lower quality are sent to slaughter when hay and food are limited and when certain diseases are more prevalent. Each type of production animal was associated with a different profile of condemnation reasons. The most commonly reported one was "severe lesions" for cattle, "abscesses" for pigs and "pronounced weight loss" for small ruminants. These reasons could constitute valuable syndromic indicators as they are unspecific clinical manifestations of a large range of animal diseases (as well as potential indicators of animal welfare). Differences were detected in the rate of carcass condemnation between cantons and between large and small slaughterhouses. A large percentage (>60% for all three animal categories) of slaughterhouses operating never reported a condemnation between 2007 and 2012, a potential indicator of widespread non-reporting bias in our database. CONCLUSIONS: The current system offers simultaneous coverage of cattle, pigs and small ruminants for the whole of Switzerland; and traceability of each condemnation to its farm of origin. The number of condemnations was significantly linked to the number of slaughters, meaning that the former should be always be offset by the later in analyses. Because this denominator is only communicated at the end of the month, condemnations may currently only be monitored on a monthly basis. Coupled with the lack of timeliness (30-60 days delay between condemnation and notification), this limits the use of the data for early-detection.

Investigating the potential of reported cattle mortality data in Switzerland for syndromic surveillance

Systems for the identification and registration of cattle have gradually been receiving attention for use in syndromic surveillance, a relatively recent approach for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. Real or near real-time monitoring of deaths or stillbirths reported to these systems offer an opportunity to detect temporal or spatial clusters of increased mortality that could be caused by an infectious disease epidemic. In Switzerland, such data are recorded in the "Tierverkehrsdatenbank" (TVD). To investigate the potential of the Swiss TVD for syndromic surveillance, 3 years of data (2009-2011) were assessed in terms of data quality, including timeliness of reporting and completeness of geographic data. Two time-series consisting of reported on-farm deaths and stillbirths were retrospectively analysed to define and quantify the temporal patterns that result from non-health related factors. Geographic data were almost always present in the TVD data; often at different spatial scales. On-farm deaths were reported to the database by farmers in a timely fashion; stillbirths were less timely. Timeliness and geographic coverage are two important features of disease surveillance systems, highlighting the suitability of the TVD for use in a syndromic surveillance system. Both time series exhibited different temporal patterns that were associated with non-health related factors. To avoid false positive signals, these patterns need to be removed from the data or accounted for in some way before applying aberration detection algorithms in real-time. Evaluating mortality data reported to systems for the identification and registration of cattle is of value for comparing national data systems and as a first step towards a European-wide early detection system for emerging and re-emerging cattle diseases.

Comparison of whole carcass condemnation and partial carcass condemnation data for integration in a national syndromic surveillance system: The Swiss experience

We obtained partial carcass condemnation (PCC) data for cattle (2009-2010) from a Swiss slaughterhouse. Data on whole carcass condemnations (WCC) carried out at the same slaughterhouse over those years were extracted from the national database for meat inspection. We found that given the differences observed in the WCC and PCC time series, it is likely that both indicators respond to different health events in the population and that one cannot be substituted by the other. Because PCC recordings are promising for syndromic surveillance, the meat inspection database should be capable to record both WCC and PCC data in the future. However, a standardised list of reasons for PCC needs to be defined and used nationwide in all slaughterhouses.

A simulation study on the statistical monitoring of condemnation rates from slaughterhouses for syndromic surveillance: an evaluation based on Swiss data

Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.

Hemolytic-uremic syndrome in Switzerland: a nationwide surveillance 1997-2003

Hemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) is a leading cause of acute renal failure in childhood. In its typical presentation, it is preceded by an episode of diarrhea mostly due to Shiga-toxin-producing Escherichia coli. There is important geographical variation of many aspects of this syndrome. Nationwide data on childhood HUS in Switzerland have not been available so far. In a prospective national study through the Swiss Pediatric Surveillance Unit 114 cases (median age 21 months, 50% boys) were reported between April 1997 and March 2003 by 38 pediatric units (annual incidence 1.42 per 10(5) children < or =16 years). Shiga-toxin-producing E. coli were isolated in 32 (60%) of tested stool samples, serotype O157:H7 in eight. Sixteen children presented with only minimal renal involvement, including three with underlying urinary tract infection. Six patients presented with atypical hemolytic-uremic syndrome, and six with HUS due to invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae infection. Mortality was 5.3%, including two out of six children with S. pneumoniae infection. The severity of thrombocytopenia and the presence of central nervous system involvement significantly correlated with mortality. In conclusion, childhood HUS is not rare in Switzerland. Contrasting other countries, E. coli O157:H7 play only a minor role in the etiology. Incomplete manifestation is not uncommon.

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Mapping HIV/STI behavioural surveillance in Europe

Used in conjunction with biological surveillance, behavioural surveillance provides data allowing for a more precise definition of HIV/STI prevention strategies. In 2008, mapping of behavioural surveillance in EU/EFTA countries was performed on behalf of the European Centre for Disease prevention and Control.

Is computer-assisted telephone triage safe? A prospective surveillance study in walk-in patients with non-life-threatening medical conditions

Background Patients often establish initial contact with healthcare institutions by telephone. During this process they are frequently medically triaged. Purpose To investigate the safety of computer-assisted telephone triage for walk-in patients with non-life-threatening medical conditions at an emergency unit of a Swiss university hospital. Methods This prospective surveillance study compared the urgency assessments of three different types of personnel (call centre nurses, hospital physicians, primary care physicians) who were involved in the patients' care process. Based on the urgency recommendations of the hospital and primary care physicians, cases which could potentially have resulted in an avoidable hazardous situation (AHS) were identified. Subsequently, the records of patients with a potential AHS were assessed for risk to health or life by an expert panel. Results 208 patients were enrolled in the study, of whom 153 were assessed by all three types of personnel. Congruence between the three assessments was low. The weighted κ values were 0.115 (95% CI 0.038 to 0.192) (hospital physicians vs call centre), 0.159 (95% CI 0.073 to 0.242) (primary care physicians vs call centre) and 0.377 (95% CI 0.279 to 0.480) (hospital vs primary care physicians). Seven of 153 cases (4.57%; 95% CI 1.85% to 9.20%) were classified as a potentially AHS. A risk to health or life was adjudged in one case (0.65%; 95% CI 0.02% to 3.58%). Conclusion Medical telephone counselling is a demanding task requiring competent specialists with dedicated training in communication supported by suitable computer technology. Provided these conditions are in place, computer-assisted telephone triage can be considered to be a safe method of assessing the potential clinical risks of patients' medical conditions.

High-throughput procedure for tick surveys of tick-borne encephalitis virus and its application in a national surveillance study in Switzerland

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), a viral infection of the central nervous system, is endemic in many Eurasian countries. In Switzerland, TBE risk areas have been characterized by geographic mapping of clinical cases. Since mass vaccination should significantly decrease the number of TBE cases, alternative methods for exposure risk assessment are required. We established a new PCR-based test for the detection of TBE virus (TBEV) in ticks. The protocol involves an automated, high-throughput nucleic acid extraction method (QIAsymphony SP system) and a one-step duplex real-time reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) assay for the detection of European subtype TBEV, including an internal process control. High usability, reproducibility, and equivalent performance for virus concentrations down to 5 x 10(3) viral genome equivalents/microl favor the automated protocol compared to the modified guanidinium thiocyanate-phenol-chloroform extraction procedure. The real-time RT-PCR allows fast, sensitive (limit of detection, 10 RNA copies/microl), and specific (no false-positive test results for other TBEV subtypes, other flaviviruses, or other tick-transmitted pathogens) detection of European subtype TBEV. The new detection method was applied in a national surveillance study, in which 62,343 Ixodes ricinus ticks were screened for the presence of TBE virus. A total of 38 foci of endemicity could be identified, with a mean virus prevalence of 0.46%. The foci do not fully agree with those defined by disease mapping. Therefore, the proposed molecular test procedure constitutes a prerequisite for an appropriate TBE surveillance. Our data are a unique complement of human TBE disease case mapping in Switzerland.

Inadequate quality of surveillance after curative surgery for colon cancer

Colon cancer patients are at risk for recurrence. Recurrent disease might be curable if detected early by surveillance. However, data on the quality of surveillance are scarce. The objective of this study is to analyze the quality of surveillance after curative surgery for colon cancer among a cohort of Swiss patients.