How expectations affect reference point formation: an experimental investigation

This paper addresses two major topics concerning the role of expectations in the formation of reference points. First, we show that when expectations are present, they have a significant impact on reference point formation. Second, we find that decision-makers employ expected values when forming reference points (integrated mechanism) as opposed to single possible outcomes (segregated mechanism). Despite the importance of reference points in prospect theory, to date, there is no standard method of examining these. We develop a new experimental design that employs an indirect approach and extends an existing direct approach. Our findings are consistent across the two approaches.

Aussichten der freien Schulwahl. Die globale pädagogische Reformbewegung im Härtetest der direkten Demokratie

Weltweit ist eine Angleichung von Bildungsreformen zu beobachten, was im Begriff der globalen pädagogischen Reformbewegung zum Ausdruck kommt. Obwohl die Bedingungen, unter denen sich Nationalstaaten einer pädagogischen Weltkultur angleichen, in jüngster Zeit vermehrt untersucht wurden, ist über die politischen Mechanismen, die über die Rezeption globaler Modelle befinden, wenig bekannt. Anhand einer Fallstudie aus der Schweiz, deren System der direkten Demokratie besonders geeignet scheint, politische Transformationsprozesse zu untersuchen, wird die Auseinandersetzung um die Einführung der freien Schulwahl, wie sie durch verschiedene Volksinitiativen ausgelöst wurde, rekonstruiert. Die Studie zeigt, dass ein neoinstitutionalistischer Ansatz geeignet sein kann, die Rezeption globaler Reformmodelle zu erklären, sofern er um eine akteurtheoretische Perspektive ergänzt wird und die Besonderheiten des lokalen politischen Systems berücksichtigt werden. In methodischer Hinsicht ergibt sich, dass bei der Untersuchung globaler Angleichungsprozesse vier Referenzpunkte zu beachten sind, nämlich Staat, Markt, Öffentlichkeit und Wissenschaft

Applying prospect theory to predict new venture creation

Although prior research on new venture creation has identified several antecedents that differentiate entrepreneurs from non-entrepreneurs, scholars still have an incomplete understanding of the factors and decision processes that lead an individual to become an entrepreneur. By applying prospect theory, we introduce the reference point as an important antecedent of new venture creation. Testing our research model and hypotheses with entrepreneurs and employees, results show that entrepreneurs set more aspiring reference points and therefore find themselves more often in a perceived loss situation. Results are also robust when testing for entrepreneurial intention of business graduate students. According to prospect theory, the perceived loss triggers more risk-seeking behavior. Summing up, the reference point has a positive effect on new venture creation and differentiates entrepreneurs from nonentrepreneurs. We discuss theoretical and managerial implications of the findings and develop avenues for future research.

Hochwasser-«Katastrophen» in Basel vom 13. bis 21. Jahrhundert Rekonstruktion, Deutung und Lerneffekte

Magnitudes of peak discharges of 43 non-instrumentally measured Rhine river floods at Basel were reconstructed. The methodology is based on a range of different historic sources, containing flood information (including traditional urban inundation reference points from flood reports of medieval and early modern period chroniclers as well as 19th century journalists, flood marks, paintings and drawings, town maps, longitudinal and cross profiles etc.). These traditional pre-instrumental “flood information systems” still existed in the 19th century, when in 1808 the first instrumental hydrological measurements started. They thus could be calibrated with instrumental measurements in the 19th century overlapping period. The result is a 743 year long quantified Rhine river flood series. Floods of both periods (pre-instrumental as well as instrumental) can thus be directly compared for the very first time. The long-range consequences of rivers Kander and Aare deviations in 1714 and 1878 are reflected in a distinct change of magnitudes of peak discharges in Basel. A clear flood “disaster gap” appears in the 20th century. The lack of any extreme floods for such a long time is completely unique during the 743-year period of analysis. This result will influence the statistical assessment of once-in-a-century events, which might be of great interest for insurance campanies.

Heritability, determinants and reference values of renal length: a family-based population study

OBJECTIVES: In this population-based study, reference values were generated for renal length, and the heritability and factors associated with kidney length were assessed. METHODS: Anthropometric parameters and renal ultrasound measurements were assessed in randomly selected nuclear families of European ancestry (Switzerland). The adjusted narrow sense heritability of kidney size parameters was estimated by maximum likelihood assuming multivariate normality after power transformation. Gender-specific reference centiles were generated for renal length according to body height in the subset of non-diabetic non-obese participants with normal renal function. RESULTS: We included 374 men and 419 women (mean ± SD, age 47 ± 18 and 48 ± 17 years, BMI 26.2 ± 4 and 24.5 ± 5 kg/m(2), respectively) from 205 families. Renal length was 11.4 ± 0.8 cm in men and 10.7 ± 0.8 cm in women; there was no difference between right and left renal length. Body height, weight and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were positively associated with renal length, kidney function negatively, age quadratically, whereas gender and hypertension were not. The adjusted heritability estimates of renal length and volume were 47.3 ± 8.5 % and 45.5 ± 8.8 %, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The significant heritability of renal length and volume highlights the familial aggregation of this trait, independently of age and body size. Population-based references for renal length provide a useful guide for clinicians. KEY POINTS: • Renal length and volume are heritable traits, independent of age and size. • Based on a European population, gender-specific reference values/percentiles are provided for renal length. • Renal length correlates positively with body length and weight. • There was no difference between right and left renal lengths in this study. • This negates general teaching that the left kidney is larger and longer.

Estimation of reference curves for the urinary steroid metabolome in the first year of life in healthy children: tracing the complexity of human postnatal steroidogenesis

CONTEXT Complex steroid disorders such as P450 oxidoreductase deficiency or apparent cortisone reductase deficiency may be recognized by steroid profiling using chromatographic mass spectrometric methods. These methods are highly specific and sensitive, and provide a complete spectrum of steroid metabolites in a single measurement of one sample which makes them superior to immunoassays. The steroid metabolome during the fetal-neonatal transition is characterized by a) the metabolites of the fetal-placental unit at birth, b) the fetal adrenal androgens until its involution 3-6 months postnatally, and c) the steroid metabolites produced by the developing endocrine organs. All these developmental events change the steroid metabolome in an age- and sex-dependent manner during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to provide normative values for the urinary steroid metabolome of healthy newborns at short time intervals in the first year of life. METHODS We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study to measure 67 urinary steroid metabolites in 21 male and 22 female term healthy newborn infants at 13 time-points from week 1 to week 49 of life. Urine samples were collected from newborn infants before discharge from hospital and from healthy infants at home. Steroid metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and steroid concentrations corrected for urinary creatinine excretion were calculated. RESULTS 61 steroids showed age and 15 steroids sex specificity. Highest urinary steroid concentrations were found in both sexes for progesterone derivatives, in particular 20α-DH-5α-DH-progesterone, and for highly polar 6α-hydroxylated glucocorticoids. The steroids peaked at week 3 and decreased by ∼80% at week 25 in both sexes. The decline of progestins, androgens and estrogens was more pronounced than of glucocorticoids whereas the excretion of corticosterone and its metabolites and of mineralocorticoids remained constant during the first year of life. CONCLUSION The urinary steroid profile changes dramatically during the first year of life and correlates with the physiologic developmental changes during the fetal-neonatal transition. Thus detailed normative data during this time period permit the use of steroid profiling as a powerful diagnostic tool.

Influence of contact points on the performance of caries detection methods in approximal surfaces of primary molars: an in vivo study

This in vivo study aimed to evaluate the influence of contact points on the approximal caries detection in primary molars, by comparing the performance of the DIAGNOdent pen and visual-tactile examination after tooth separation to bitewing radiography (BW). A total of 112 children were examined and 33 children were selected. In three periods (a, b, and c), 209 approximal surfaces were examined: (a) examiner 1 performed visual-tactile examination using the Nyvad criteria (EX1); examiner 2 used DIAGNOdent pen (LF1) and took BW; (b) 1 week later, after tooth separation, examiner 1 performed the second visual-tactile examination (EX2) and examiner 2 used DIAGNOdent again (LF2); (c) after tooth exfoliation, surfaces were directly examined using DIAGNOdent (LF3). Teeth were examined by computed microtomography as a reference standard. Analyses were based on diagnostic thresholds: D1: D 0 = health, D 1 –D 4 = disease; D2: D 0 , D 1 = health, D 2 –D 4 = disease; D3: D 0 –D 2 = health, D 3 , D 4 = disease. At D1, the highest sensitivity/specificity were observed for EX1 (1.00)/LF3 (0.68), respectively. At D2, the highest sensitivity/ specificity were observed for LF3 (0.69)/BW (1.00), respectively. At D3, the highest sensitivity/specificity were observed for LF3 (0.78)/EX1, EX2 and BW (1.00). EX1 showed higher accuracy values than LF1, and EX2 showed similar values to LF2. We concluded that the visual-tactile examination showed better results in detecting sound surfaces and approximal caries lesions without tooth separation. However, the effectiveness of approximal caries lesion detection of both methods was increased by the absence of contact points. Therefore, regardless of the method of detection, orthodontic separating elastics should be used as a complementary tool for the diagnosis of approximal noncavitated lesions in primary molars.