Cardiac biomarkers and clinical scores for risk stratification in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism.

OBJECTIVE To determine the prognostic accuracy of cardiac biomarkers alone and in combination with clinical scores in elderly patients with non-high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE). DESIGN Ancillary analysis of a Swiss multicentre prospective cohort study. SUBJECTS A total of 230 patients aged ≥65 years with non-high-risk PE. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES The study end-point was a composite of PE-related complications, defined as PE-related death, recurrent venous thromboembolism or major bleeding during a follow-up of 30 days. The prognostic accuracy of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), the Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the precursor of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) was determined using sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, logistic regression and reclassification statistics. RESULTS The overall complication rate during follow-up was 8.7%. hs-cTnT achieved the highest prognostic accuracy [area under the ROC curve: 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63-0.86, P < 0.001). At the predefined cut-off values, the negative predictive values of the biomarkers were above 95%. For levels above the cut-off, the risk of complications increased fivefold for hs-cTnT [odds ratio (OR): 5.22, 95% CI: 1.49-18.25] and 14-fold for NT-proBNP (OR: 14.21, 95% CI: 1.73-116.93) after adjustment for both clinical scores and renal function. Reclassification statistics indicated that adding hs-cTnT to the GPS or the PESI significantly improved the prognostic accuracy of both clinical scores. CONCLUSION In elderly patients with nonmassive PE, NT-proBNP or hs-cTnT could be an adequate alternative to clinical scores for identifying low-risk individuals suitable for outpatient management.

Postpartal recurrent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction in essential thrombocythaemia: case report and review of the literature

ABSTRACT: Normal pregnancy corresponds to a procoagulant state. Acute myocardial infarction during pregnancy is rare, yet considering the low non-pregnant risk score of childbearing women it is still surprisingly frequent. We report a case of postpartum recurrent non-ST elevation myocardial infarction in a 40-year-old caucasian woman with essential thrombocythaemia in the presence of a positive JAK-2 mutation and an elevated anti-cardiolipin IgM antibody titer. In the majority of cases of myocardial infarction in pregnancy or in the peripartal period, atherosclerosis, a thrombus or coronary artery dissection is observed. The combination of essential thrombocythaemia and elevated anti-cardiolipin IgM antibody titer in the presence of several cardiovascular risk factors seems to be causative in our case. In conclusion, with the continuing trend of childbearing at older ages, rare or unlikely conditions leading to severe events such as myocardial infarction must be considered in pregnant women.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

A clinical prediction model to identify patients at high risk of death in the emergency department.

PURPOSE Rapid assessment and intervention is important for the prognosis of acutely ill patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). The aim of this study was to prospectively develop and validate a model predicting the risk of in-hospital death based on all available information available at the time of ED admission and to compare its discriminative performance with a non-systematic risk estimate by the triaging first health-care provider. METHODS Prospective cohort analysis based on a multivariable logistic regression for the probability of death. RESULTS A total of 8,607 consecutive admissions of 7,680 patients admitted to the ED of a tertiary care hospital were analysed. Most frequent APACHE II diagnostic categories at the time of admission were neurological (2,052, 24 %), trauma (1,522, 18 %), infection categories [1,328, 15 %; including sepsis (357, 4.1 %), severe sepsis (249, 2.9 %), septic shock (27, 0.3 %)], cardiovascular (1,022, 12 %), gastrointestinal (848, 10 %) and respiratory (449, 5 %). The predictors of the final model were age, prolonged capillary refill time, blood pressure, mechanical ventilation, oxygen saturation index, Glasgow coma score and APACHE II diagnostic category. The model showed good discriminative ability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 and good internal validity. The model performed significantly better than non-systematic triaging of the patient. CONCLUSIONS The use of the prediction model can facilitate the identification of ED patients with higher mortality risk. The model performs better than a non-systematic assessment and may facilitate more rapid identification and commencement of treatment of patients at risk of an unfavourable outcome.

Saddlepoint Approximations to the Probability of Ruin in Finite Time for the Compound Poisson Risk Process Perturbed by Diffusion

A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

Safety and efficacy of thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase in older stroke patients.

Stroke is a common cause of death and persisting disability worldwide, and thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase is the only approved treatment for acute ischaemic stroke. Older age is the most important non-modifiable risk factor for stroke, and demographic changes are also resulting in an increasingly ageing population. However, clinical trial evidence for the use of intravenous alteplase is limited for the older age group where stroke incidence is highest. In this article, the current evidence regarding the safety and efficacy of intravenous thrombolytic therapy in stroke patients aged ≥80 years is critically analysed and the gap in current knowledge highlighted. In summary, intravenous thrombolysis in stroke patients aged ≥80 years seems to be associated with less favourable clinical outcomes and higher mortality than in younger patients, which is consistent with the natural course in untreated patients. The risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage does not appear to be significantly higher in the elderly group, suggesting that intracranial bleeding complications are unlikely to outweigh the potential benefit in this age group. Overall, withholding thrombolytic treatment in ischaemic stroke on the basis of advanced age alone is no longer justifiable.

Long-term outcome of patients with newly diagnosed chronic myeloid leukemia: a randomized comparison of stem cell transplantation with drug treatment.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors represent today's treatment of choice in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is regarded as salvage therapy. This prospective randomized CML-study IIIA recruited 669 patients with newly diagnosed CML between July 1997 and January 2004 from 143 centers. Of these, 427 patients were considered eligible for HSCT and were randomized by availability of a matched family donor between primary HSCT (group A; N=166 patients) and best available drug treatment (group B; N=261). Primary end point was long-term survival. Survival probabilities were not different between groups A and B (10-year survival: 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.82) vs 0.69 (95% CI: 0.61-0.76)), but influenced by disease and transplant risk. Patients with a low transplant risk showed superior survival compared with patients with high- (P<0.001) and non-high-risk disease (P=0.047) in group B; after entering blast crisis, survival was not different with or without HSCT. Significantly more patients in group A were in molecular remission (56% vs 39%; P=0.005) and free of drug treatment (56% vs 6%; P<0.001). Differences in symptoms and Karnofsky score were not significant. In the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors, HSCT remains a valid option when both disease and transplant risk are considered.Leukemia advance online publication, 20 November 2015; doi:10.1038/leu.2015.281.

Impact of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) on cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable atherothrombosis or multiple risk factors

We aimed to assess whether the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) events in stable patients with established atherothrombosis or multiple risk factors.

Cyclin D1 (CCND1) A870G gene polymorphism modulates smoking-induced lung cancer risk and response to platinum-based chemotherapy in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients

PURPOSE: The cyclin D1 (CCND1) A870G gene polymorphism is linked to the outcome in patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we investigated the impact of this polymorphism on smoking-induced cancer risk and clinical outcome in patients with NSCLC stages I-IV. METHODS: CCND1 A870G genotype was determined by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (RFLP) of DNA extracted from blood. The study included 244 NSCLC patients and 187 healthy control subjects. RESULTS: Patient characteristics were: 70% male, 77% smokers, 43% adenocarcinoma, and 27% squamous cell carcinoma. Eighty-one percent of the patients had stages III-IV disease. Median age at diagnosis was 60 years and median survival was 13 months. Genotype frequencies of patients and controls both conformed to the Hardy Weinberg equilibrium. The GG genotype significantly correlated with a history of heavy smoking (>or=40 py, P=0.02), and patients with this genotype had a significantly higher cigarette consumption than patients with AA/AG genotypes (P=0.007). The GG genotype also significantly correlated with tumor response or stabilization after a platinum-based first-line chemotherapy (P=0.04). Survival analysis revealed no significant differences among the genotypes. CONCLUSION: Evidence was obtained that the CCND1 A870G gene polymorphism modulates smoking-induced lung cancer risk. Further studies are required to explore the underlying molecular mechanisms and to test the value of this gene polymorphism as a predictor for platinum-sensitivity in NSCLC patients.

Anemia during adjuvant non-taxane chemotherapy for early breast cancer: Incidence and risk factors from two trials of the International Breast Cancer Study Group

GOAL OF THE WORK: Anemia is a common side effect of chemotherapy. Limited information exists about its incidence and risk factors. The objective of this study was to evaluate the incidence of anemia and risk factors for anemia occurrence in patients with early breast cancer who received adjuvant chemotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We evaluated risk factors for anemia in pre- and post/perimenopausal patients with lymph node-positive early breast cancer treated with adjuvant chemotherapy in two randomized trials. All patients received four cycles of doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide (AC) followed by three cycles of cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil (CMF). Anemia incidence was related to baseline risk factors. Multivariable analysis used logistic and Cox regression. MAIN RESULTS: Among the 2,215 available patients, anemia was recorded in 11% during adjuvant chemotherapy. Grade 2 and 3 anemia occurred in 4 and 1% of patients, respectively. Pretreatment hemoglobin and white blood cells (WBC) were significant predictors of anemia. Adjusted odds ratios (logistic regression) comparing highest versus lowest quartiles were 0.18 (P < 0.0001) for hemoglobin and 0.52 (P = 0.0045) for WBC. Age, surgery type, platelets, body mass index, and length of time from surgery to chemotherapy were not significant predictors. Cox regression results looking at time to anemia were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Moderate or severe anemia is rare among patients treated with AC followed by CMF. Low baseline hemoglobin and WBC are associated with a higher risk of anemia.