Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Is the relation between early post-session reports and treatment outcome an epiphenomenon of intake distress and early response? A multi-predictor analysis in outpatient psychotherapy

The early phase of psychotherapy has been regarded as a sensitive period in the unfolding of psychotherapy leading to positive outcomes. However, there is disagreement about the degree to which early (especially relationship-related) session experiences predict outcome over and above initial levels of distress and early response to treatment. The goal of the present study was to simultaneously examine outcome at post treatment as a function of (a) intake symptom and interpersonal distress as well as early change in well-being and symptoms, (b) the patient's early session-experiences, (c) the therapist's early session-experiences/interventions, and (d) their interactions. The data of 430 psychotherapy completers treated by 151 therapists were analyzed using hierarchical linear models. Results indicate that early positive intra- and interpersonal session experiences as reported by patients and therapists after the sessions explained 58% of variance of a composite outcome measure, taking intake distress and early response into account. All predictors (other than problem-activating therapists' interventions) contributed to later treatment outcomes if entered as single predictors. However, the multi-predictor analyses indicated that interpersonal distress at intake as well as the early interpersonal session experiences by patients and therapists remained robust predictors of outcome. The findings underscore that early in therapy therapists (and their supervisors) need to understand and monitor multiple interconnected components simultaneously

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Cardiopulmonary Bypass has No Significant Impact on Survival in Patients Undergoing Nephrectomy and Level III-IV Inferior Vena Cava Thrombectomy. A Multi-Institutional Analysis.

PURPOSE The impact of cardiopulmonary bypass in level III-IV tumor thrombectomy on surgical and oncologic outcomes is unknown. We determine the impact of cardiopulmonary bypass on overall and cancer specific survival, as well as surgical complication rates and immediate outcomes in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III-IV tumor thrombectomy with or without cardiopulmonary bypass. MATERIALS AND METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 362 patients with renal cell cancer and with level III or IV tumor thrombus from 1992 to 2012 at 22 U.S. and European centers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall and cancer specific survival between patients with and without cardiopulmonary bypass. Perioperative mortality and complication rates were assessed using logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Median overall survival was 24.6 months in noncardiopulmonary bypass cases and 26.6 months in cardiopulmonary bypass cases. Overall survival and cancer specific survival did not differ significantly in both groups on univariate analysis or when adjusting for known risk factors. On multivariate analysis no significant differences were seen in hospital length of stay, Clavien 1-4 complication rate, intraoperative or 30-day mortality and cancer specific survival. Limitations include the retrospective nature of the study. CONCLUSIONS In our multi-institutional analysis the use of cardiopulmonary bypass did not significantly impact cancer specific survival or overall survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III or IV tumor thrombectomy. Neither approach was independently associated with increased mortality on multivariate analysis. Greater surgical complications were not independently associated with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass.

Hypervascular liver tumors: low tube voltage, high tube current multi-detector row CT for enhanced detection--phantom study

PURPOSE: To prospectively evaluate, for the depiction of simulated hypervascular liver lesions in a phantom, the effect of a low tube voltage, high tube current computed tomographic (CT) technique on image noise, contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR), lesion conspicuity, and radiation dose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A custom liver phantom containing 16 cylindric cavities (four cavities each of 3, 5, 8, and 15 mm in diameter) filled with various iodinated solutions to simulate hypervascular liver lesions was scanned with a 64-section multi-detector row CT scanner at 140, 120, 100, and 80 kVp, with corresponding tube current-time product settings at 225, 275, 420, and 675 mAs, respectively. The CNRs for six simulated lesions filled with different iodinated solutions were calculated. A figure of merit (FOM) for each lesion was computed as the ratio of CNR2 to effective dose (ED). Three radiologists independently graded the conspicuity of 16 simulated lesions. An anthropomorphic phantom was scanned to evaluate the ED. Statistical analysis included one-way analysis of variance. RESULTS: Image noise increased by 45% with the 80-kVp protocol compared with the 140-kVp protocol (P < .001). However, the lowest ED and the highest CNR were achieved with the 80-kVp protocol. The FOM results indicated that at a constant ED, a reduction of tube voltage from 140 to 120, 100, and 80 kVp increased the CNR by factors of at least 1.6, 2.4, and 3.6, respectively (P < .001). At a constant CNR, corresponding reductions in ED were by a factor of 2.5, 5.5, and 12.7, respectively (P < .001). The highest lesion conspicuity was achieved with the 80-kVp protocol. CONCLUSION: The CNR of simulated hypervascular liver lesions can be substantially increased and the radiation dose reduced by using an 80-kVp, high tube current CT technique.

A Multi-Breed Genome-Wide Association Analysis for Canine Hypothyroidism Identifies a Shared Major Risk Locus on CFA12.

Hypothyroidism is a complex clinical condition found in both humans and dogs, thought to be caused by a combination of genetic and environmental factors. In this study we present a multi-breed analysis of predisposing genetic risk factors for hypothyroidism in dogs using three high-risk breeds-the Gordon Setter, Hovawart and the Rhodesian Ridgeback. Using a genome-wide association approach and meta-analysis, we identified a major hypothyroidism risk locus shared by these breeds on chromosome 12 (p = 2.1x10-11). Further characterisation of the candidate region revealed a shared ~167 kb risk haplotype (4,915,018-5,081,823 bp), tagged by two SNPs in almost complete linkage disequilibrium. This breed-shared risk haplotype includes three genes (LHFPL5, SRPK1 and SLC26A8) and does not extend to the dog leukocyte antigen (DLA) class II gene cluster located in the vicinity. These three genes have not been identified as candidate genes for hypothyroid disease previously, but have functions that could potentially contribute to the development of the disease. Our results implicate the potential involvement of novel genes and pathways for the development of canine hypothyroidism, raising new possibilities for screening, breeding programmes and treatments in dogs. This study may also contribute to our understanding of the genetic etiology of human hypothyroid disease, which is one of the most common endocrine disorders in humans.

How do subordinate and dominant species in semi-natural mountain grasslands relate to productivity and land-use change?

Changes in agricultural practices of semi-natural mountain grasslands are expected to modify plant community structure and shift dominance patterns. Using vegetation surveys of 11 sites in semi-natural grasslands of the Swiss Jura and Swiss and French Alps, we determined the relative contribution of dominant, subordinate and transient plant species in grazed and abandoned communities and observed their changes along a gradient of productivity and in response to abandonment of pasturing. The results confirm the humpbacked diversity–productivity relationship in semi-natural grassland, which is due to the increase of subordinate species number at intermediate productivity levels. Grazed communities, at the lower or higher end of the species diversity gradient, suffered higher species loss after grazing abandonment. Species loss after abandonment of pasturing was mainly due to a higher reduction in the number of subordinate species, as a consequence of the increasing proportion of dominant species. When plant biodiversity maintenance is the aim, our results have direct implications for the way grasslands should be managed. Indeed, while intensification and abandonment have been accelerated since few decades, our findings in this multi-site analysis confirm the importance of maintaining intermediate levels of pasturing to preserve biodiversity.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

Automatic multi-resolution shape modeling of multi-organ structures.

Point Distribution Models (PDM) are among the most popular shape description techniques and their usefulness has been demonstrated in a wide variety of medical imaging applications. However, to adequately characterize the underlying modeled population it is essential to have a representative number of training samples, which is not always possible. This problem is especially relevant as the complexity of the modeled structure increases, being the modeling of ensembles of multiple 3D organs one of the most challenging cases. In this paper, we introduce a new GEneralized Multi-resolution PDM (GEM-PDM) in the context of multi-organ analysis able to efficiently characterize the different inter-object relations, as well as the particular locality of each object separately. Importantly, unlike previous approaches, the configuration of the algorithm is automated thanks to a new agglomerative landmark clustering method proposed here, which equally allows us to identify smaller anatomically significant regions within organs. The significant advantage of the GEM-PDM method over two previous approaches (PDM and hierarchical PDM) in terms of shape modeling accuracy and robustness to noise, has been successfully verified for two different databases of sets of multiple organs: six subcortical brain structures, and seven abdominal organs. Finally, we propose the integration of the new shape modeling framework into an active shape-model-based segmentation algorithm. The resulting algorithm, named GEMA, provides a better overall performance than the two classical approaches tested, ASM, and hierarchical ASM, when applied to the segmentation of 3D brain MRI.

Working Alliance Inventory-Short Revised (WAI-SR): psychometric properties in outpatients and inpatients

The Working Alliance Inventory-Short Revised (WAI-SR) is a recently refined measure of the therapeutic alliance that assesses three key aspects of the therapeutic alliance: (a) agreement on the tasks of therapy, (b) agreement on the goals of therapy and (c) development of an affective bond. The WAI-SR demonstrated good psychometric properties in an initial validation in psychotherapy outpatients in the USA. The generalizability of these findings is limited because in some countries a substantial portion of individual psychotherapy is delivered in inpatient settings. This study investigated and compared the psychometric properties of the WAI-SR in German outpatients (N = 88) and inpatients (N = 243). In both samples reliability (alpha > 0.80) and convergent validity with the Helping Alliance Questionnaire were good (r > 0.64). Confirmatory factor analysis showed acceptable to good model fit for the proposed Bond-Task-Goal model in both samples. Multi-group analysis demonstrated that the same constructs were measured across settings. Alliance ratings of outpatients and inpatients differed regarding the overlap of alliance components and the magnitude of the alliance ratings: The differentiation of the alliance components was poorer in inpatients and they reported lower alliances. Unique aspects of the alliance in inpatient treatment are discussed and a need for further research on the alliance in inpatient settings is pointed out. Overall, the WAI-SR can be recommended for alliance assessment in both settings.

Deep ocean ventilation, carbon isotopes, marine sedimentation and the deglacial CO2 rise

The link between the atmospheric CO2 level and the ventilation state of the deep ocean is an important building block of the key hypotheses put forth to explain glacial-interglacial CO2 fluctuations. In this study, we systematically examine the sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and its carbon isotope composition to changes in deep ocean ventilation, the ocean carbon pumps, and sediment formation in a global three-dimensional ocean-sediment carbon cycle model. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that a break up of Southern Ocean stratification and invigorated deep ocean ventilation were the dominant drivers for the early deglacial CO2 rise of ~35 ppm between the Last Glacial Maximum and 14.6 ka BP. Another rise of 10 ppm until the end of the Holocene is attributed to carbonate compensation responding to the early deglacial change in ocean circulation. Our reasoning is based on a multi-proxy analysis which indicates that an acceleration of deep ocean ventilation during the early deglaciation is not only consistent with recorded atmospheric CO2 but also with the reconstructed opal sedimentation peak in the Southern Ocean at around 16 ka BP, the record of atmospheric δ13CCO2, and the reconstructed changes in the Pacific CaCO3 saturation horizon.

Carbon sequestration in Himalaya's alpine meadows: Mitigating cropping encroachment on pastures in Northern Pakistan

Rangelands store about 30% of the world’s carbon and support over 120 million pastoralists globally. Adjusting the management of remote alpine pastures bears a substantial climate change mitigation potential that can provide livelihood support for marginalized pastoralists through carbon payment. Landless pastoralists in Northern Pakistan seek higher income by cropping potatoes and peas over alpine pastures. However, tilling steep slopes without terracing exposes soil to erosion. Moreover, yields decline rapidly requiring increasing fertilizer inputs. Under these conditions, carbon payment could be a feasible option to compensate pastoralists for renouncing hazardous cropping while favoring pastoral activities. The study quantifies and compares C on cropped and grazed land. The hypothesis was that cropping on alpine pastures reduces former carbon storage. The study area located in the Naran valley of the Pakistani Himalayas receives an annual average of 819 mm of rain and 764 mm of snow. Average temperatures remain below 0°C from November to March while frost may occur all year round. A total of 72 soil core samples were collected discriminating land use (cropping, pasture), aspect (North, South), elevation (low 3000, middle 3100, and high 3200 m a.s.l.), and soil depth (shallow 0-10, deep 10-30 cm). Thirty six biomass samples were collected over the same independent variables (except for soil depth) using a 10x10x20 cm steal box inserted in the ground for each sample. Aboveground biomass and coarse roots were separated from the soil aggregate and oven-dried. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and biomass carbon (BC) were estimated through a potassium dichromate oxidation treatment. The samples were collected during the second week of October 2010 at the end of the grazing and cropping season and before the first snowfall. The data was statistically analyzed by means of a one-way analysis of variance. Results show that all variables taken separately have a significant effect on mean SOC [%]: crop/pasture 1.33/1.6, North/South 1.61/1.32, low/middle/high 1.09/1.62/1.68, shallow/deep 1.4/1.53. However, for BC, only land use has a significant effect with more than twice the amount of carbon in pastures [g m-2]: crop/pasture 127/318. These preliminary findings suggest that preventing the conversion of pastures into cropping fields in the Naran valley avoids an average loss of 12.2 t C ha-1 or 44.8 t CO2eq ha-1 representing a foreseeable compensation of 672 € ha-1 for the Naran landless pastoralists who would renounce cropping. The ongoing study shall provide a complete picture for carbon payment integrating key aspects such as the rate of cropping encroachment over pastures per year, the methane leakage from the system due to livestock enteric fermentation, the expected cropping income vs. livestock income and the transaction costs of implementing the mitigation project, certifying it, and verifying carbon credits. A net present value over an infinite time horizon for the mitigation scenario shall be estimated on an iterative simulation to consider weather and price uncertainties. The study will also provide an estimate of the minimum price of carbon at which pastoralists would consider engaging in the mitigation activity.