A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.

A Process Model of Complementarity and Substitution of Contractual and Relational Governance in IS Outsourcing

This paper develops a process model of how and why complementarity and substitution form over time between contractual and relational governance in the context of information systems outsourcing. Our analysis identifies four distinct process patterns that explain this formation as the outcome of interaction processes between key elements of both contractual and relational governance. These patterns unveil the dynamic nature of complementarity and substitution. In particular, we show that the relationship between contractual and relational governance oscillates between complementarity and substitution. Those oscillations are triggered mainly by three types of contextual events (goal fuzziness, goal conflict, and goal misalignment). Surprisingly, substitution of informal control did not occur as an immediate reaction to external events but emerged as a consequence of preceding complementarity. Thus, our study challenges the prevailing view of an either/or dichotomy of complementarity and substitution by showing that they are causally connected over time.

A Process Model of the Formation of Spatial Presence Experiences

In order to bridge interdisciplinary differences in Presence research and to establish connections between Presence and “older” concepts of psychology and communication, a theoretical model of the formation of Spatial Presence is proposed. It is applicable to the exposure to different media and intended to unify the existing efforts to develop a theory of Presence. The model includes assumptions about attention allocation, mental models, and involvement, and considers the role of media factors and user characteristics as well, thus incorporating much previous work. It is argued that a commonly accepted model of Spatial Presence is the only solution to secure further progress within the international, interdisciplinary and multiple-paradigm community of Presence research.

The Hamburg-Model of Integrated Care for Patients with Psychosis: Part 1

Objective: The "Hamburg model" designates an integrated care model for severely ill patients with psychotic disorders financed by the health insurance system in accordance with § 140 SGB V.Methods: It comprises comprehensive and long-term treatment within a regional network of the psychosis center of the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf (UKE) and private psychiatrists. The treatment model consists of therapeutic assertive community treatment (ACT) provided by a highly specialized treatment team and need-adapted in- and outpatient care.Results and conclusions: The present article summarizes the disease- and treatment-specific rationales for the model development as well as the model structure and treatment contents. The article further summarizes the effectiveness and efficiency results of a study comparing the Hamburg model and treatment as usual (without ACT) within a 12-month follow-up study (ACCESS trial).

The Hamburg-Model of Integrated Care for Patients with Psychosis: Part 2

Objective: Since the beginning of the integrated care model for severely ill patients with psychotic disorders ("Hamburg model") in 2007 different clinical parameters have been consecutively assessed within a naturalistic, observational, prospective study.Methods: Clinical outcome of the 2-year and 4-year follow-ups of n = 158 patients.Results: A significant and ongoing improvement of psychopathology, severity of illness, functional outcome, quality of life and satisfaction with care in this sample of severely ill and merely chronic patients with psychosis was shown. Moreover, medication adherence improved and quality and quantity of outpatient treatment increased.Conclusion: The ongoing psychosocial stabilisation of the patients most likely result from a combination of various factors: continuity of care, multimodal and individualized care, therapeutic specialisation and the multidisciplinary ACT team. Results provide clinical and scientific evidence for future implementations of the integrated care model "Hamburg Model" for the treatment of psychosis.

Integrated care in patients with schizophrenia: results of trials published between 2011 and 2013 focusing on effectiveness and efficiency

Purpose of review: Overview on integrated care trials focusing on effectiveness and efficiency published from 2011 to 2013. Recent findings: Eight randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and 21 non-RCT studies were published from 2011 to 2013. Studies differed in several methodological aspects such as study population, psychotherapeutic approaches used, outcome parameters, follow-up times, fidelities, and implementation of the integrated care model and the nation-specific healthcare context with different control conditions. This makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions. Most studies demonstrated relevant improvements regarding symptoms (P = 0.001) and functioning (P = 0.01), quality of life (P = 0.01), adherence (P <0.05) and patient's satisfaction (P = 0.01), and reduction of caregiver's stress (P < 0.05). Mean total costs were favoring or at least equalizing costs but with positive effects found on subjective health favoring integrated care models. Summary: There is an increasing interest in the effectiveness and efficiency of integrated care models in patients with mental disorders, specifically in those with severe and persistent mental illness. To increase generalizability, future trials should exactly describe rationales and content of integrated care model and control conditions.

A model of osteoporosis impact in Switzerland 2000-2020

The aim of our study was to develop a modeling framework suitable to quantify the incidence, absolute number and economic impact of osteoporosis-attributable hip, vertebral and distal forearm fractures, with a particular focus on change over time, and with application to the situation in Switzerland from 2000 to 2020. A Markov process model was developed and analyzed by Monte Carlo simulation. A demographic scenario provided by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office and various Swiss and international data sources were used as model inputs. Demographic and epidemiologic input parameters were reproduced correctly, confirming the internal validity of the model. The proportion of the Swiss population aged 50 years or over will rise from 33.3% in 2000 to 41.3% in 2020. At the total population level, osteoporosis-attributable incidence will rise from 1.16 to 1.54 per 1,000 person-years in the case of hip fracture, from 3.28 to 4.18 per 1,000 person-years in the case of radiographic vertebral fracture, and from 0.59 to 0.70 per 1,000 person-years in the case of distal forearm fracture. Osteoporosis-attributable hip fracture numbers will rise from 8,375 to 11,353, vertebral fracture numbers will rise from 23,584 to 30,883, and distal forearm fracture numbers will rise from 4,209 to 5,186. Population-level osteoporosis-related direct medical inpatient costs per year will rise from 713.4 million Swiss francs (CHF) to CHF946.2 million. These figures correspond to 1.6% and 2.2% of Swiss health care expenditures in 2000. The modeling framework described can be applied to a wide variety of settings. It can be used to assess the impact of new prevention, diagnostic and treatment strategies. In Switzerland incidences of osteoporotic hip, vertebral and distal forearm fracture will rise by 33%, 27%, and 19%, respectively, between 2000 and 2020, if current prevention and treatment patterns are maintained. Corresponding absolute fracture numbers will rise by 36%, 31%, and 23%. Related direct medical inpatient costs are predicted to increase by 33%; however, this estimate is subject to uncertainty due to limited availability of input data.

Explaining Emergence and Consequences of Specific Formal Controls in IS Outsourcing – A Process-View

IS outsourcing projects often fail to achieve project goals. To inhibit this failure, managers need to design formal controls that are tailored to the specific contextual demands. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of IS outsourcing projects makes the design of such specific formal controls at the outset of a project challenging. Hence, the process of translating high-level project goals into specific formal controls becomes crucial for success or failure of IS outsourcing projects. Based on a comparative case study of four IS outsourcing projects, our study enhances current understanding of such translation processes and their consequences by developing a process model that explains the success or failure to achieve high-level project goals as an outcome of two unique translation patterns. This novel process-based explanation for how and why IS outsourcing projects succeed or fail has important implications for control theory and IS project escalation literature.

The Emergence of Formal Control Specificity in Information Systems Outsourcing: A Process-View

Information systems (IS) outsourcing projects often fail to achieve initial goals. To avoid project failure, managers need to design formal controls that meet the specific contextual demands of the project. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of IS outsourcing projects makes it difficult to design such specific formal controls at the outset of a project. It is hence crucial to translate high-level project goals into specific formal controls during the course of a project. This study seeks to understand the underlying patterns of such translation processes. Based on a comparative case study of four outsourced software development projects, we inductively develop a process model that consists of three unique patterns. The process model shows that the performance implications of emergent controls with higher specificity depend on differences in the translation process. Specific formal controls have positive implications for goal achievement if only the stakeholder context is adapted, while they are negative for goal achievement if in the translation process tasks are unintendedly adapted. In the latter case projects incrementally drift away from their initial direction. Our findings help to better understand control dynamics in IS outsourcing projects. We contribute to a process theoretic understanding of IS outsourcing governance and we derive implications for control theory and the IS project escalation literature.

Satisfaction with follow-up consultations among younger adults treated for cancer: the role of quality of life and psychological variables

Given increased survival rates and treatment-related late effects, follow-up for cancer survivors is increasingly recommended. However, information about adverse events (e.g. possibility of late effects) may be distressing for the cancer survivor and lead to poor clinic attendance. Survivor satisfaction with appointments and the information provided are important. The Monitoring Process Model provides a theoretical framework to understand how survivors cope with threatening information, and consequences for follow-up care. Our aims were to describe satisfaction with routine follow-up and association between monitoring/blunting and satisfaction with care.