Exculpating victims and the reversal of hindsight bias

This experiment examines the role of the hindsight bias and of motivational forces such as the motive to believe in a just world as possible causes of the derogation of victims effect in the context of rape. The hindsight bias is the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event once the outcome is known. Participants read descriptions of an interaction between a man and a woman that ended with one of four possible outcomes: The woman was raped with very severe consequences for her future life vs. rape with only minor consequences for her future life vs. no rape (assailant was forced to retreat by the strong defense of the victim) vs. no outcome information. To test motivational predictions the hindsight bias and the derogation effect were analyzed as a consequence of the sex of participants, the seriousness of the consequences of the rape, the belief in a just world and the acceptance of rape myths. Results supported the assumption that derogation effects are at least partly driven by hindsight bias and that motivational processes work via the hindsight bias. However, in this study we did not find a classical hindsight bias but a reversed hindsight bias: Especially female participants in the severe consequences of rape condition and those participants who did not accept rape myths rated the likelihood of rape in the rape outcome condition as smaller than participants in the no outcome information control group. They also derogated the victim less than participants in the no information control group. These effects were interpreted in terms of self-serving or in-group serving functions of the hindsight bias. Finally no support was found for the assumption that derogation effects are driven by the motive to believe in a just world.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

Spatial cognition, body representation and affective processes: the role of vestibular information beyond ocular reflexes and control of posture

A growing number of studies in humans demonstrate the involvement of vestibular information in tasks that are seemingly remote from well-known functions such as space constancy or postural control. In this review article we point out three emerging streams of research highlighting the importance of vestibular input: (1) Spatial Cognition: Modulation of vestibular signals can induce specific changes in spatial cognitive tasks like mental imagery and the processing of numbers. This has been shown in studies manipulating body orientation (changing the input from the otoliths), body rotation (changing the input from the semicircular canals), in clinical findings with vestibular patients, and in studies carried out in microgravity. There is also an effect in the reverse direction; top-down processes can affect perception of vestibular stimuli. (2) Body Representation: Numerous studies demonstrate that vestibular stimulation changes the representation of body parts, and sensitivity to tactile input or pain. Thus, the vestibular system plays an integral role in multisensory coordination of body representation. (3) Affective Processes and Disorders: Studies in psychiatric patients and patients with a vestibular disorder report a high comorbidity of vestibular dysfunctions and psychiatric symptoms. Recent studies investigated the beneficial effect of vestibular stimulation on psychiatric disorders, and how vestibular input can change mood and affect. These three emerging streams of research in vestibular science are—at least in part—associated with different neuronal core mechanisms. Spatial transformations draw on parietal areas, body representation is associated with somatosensory areas, and affective processes involve insular and cingulate cortices, all of which receive vestibular input. Even though a wide range of different vestibular cortical projection areas has been ascertained, their functionality still is scarcely understood.

The Emergence of Formal Control Specificity in Information Systems Outsourcing: A Process-View

Information systems (IS) outsourcing projects often fail to achieve initial goals. To avoid project failure, managers need to design formal controls that meet the specific contextual demands of the project. However, the dynamic and uncertain nature of IS outsourcing projects makes it difficult to design such specific formal controls at the outset of a project. It is hence crucial to translate high-level project goals into specific formal controls during the course of a project. This study seeks to understand the underlying patterns of such translation processes. Based on a comparative case study of four outsourced software development projects, we inductively develop a process model that consists of three unique patterns. The process model shows that the performance implications of emergent controls with higher specificity depend on differences in the translation process. Specific formal controls have positive implications for goal achievement if only the stakeholder context is adapted, while they are negative for goal achievement if in the translation process tasks are unintendedly adapted. In the latter case projects incrementally drift away from their initial direction. Our findings help to better understand control dynamics in IS outsourcing projects. We contribute to a process theoretic understanding of IS outsourcing governance and we derive implications for control theory and the IS project escalation literature.

Impaired performance on the rapid visual information processing task (RVIP) could be an endophenotype of schizophrenia

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether healthy first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients show reduced sensitivity performance, higher intra-individual variability (IIV) in reaction time (RT), and a steeper decline in sensitivity over time in a sustained attention task. Healthy first-degree relatives of schizophrenia patients (n=23) and healthy control subjects (n=46) without a family history of schizophrenia performed a demanding version of the Rapid Visual Information Processing task (RVIP). RTs, hits, false alarms, and the sensitivity index A' were assessed. The relatives were significantly less sensitive, tended to have higher IIV in RT, but sustained the impaired level of sensitivity over time. Impaired performance on the RVIP is a possible endophenotype for schizophrenia. Higher IIV in RT, apparently caused by impaired context representations, might result in fluctuations in control and lead to more frequent attentional lapses.

An insulin infusion advisory system based on autotuning nonlinear model-predictive control

This paper aims at the development and evaluation of a personalized insulin infusion advisory system (IIAS), able to provide real-time estimations of the appropriate insulin infusion rate for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) patients using continuous glucose monitors and insulin pumps. The system is based on a nonlinear model-predictive controller (NMPC) that uses a personalized glucose-insulin metabolism model, consisting of two compartmental models and a recurrent neural network. The model takes as input patient's information regarding meal intake, glucose measurements, and insulin infusion rates, and provides glucose predictions. The predictions are fed to the NMPC, in order for the latter to estimate the optimum insulin infusion rates. An algorithm based on fuzzy logic has been developed for the on-line adaptation of the NMPC control parameters. The IIAS has been in silico evaluated using an appropriate simulation environment (UVa T1DM simulator). The IIAS was able to handle various meal profiles, fasting conditions, interpatient variability, intraday variation in physiological parameters, and errors in meal amount estimations.

miR-34a and miR-15a/16 are co-regulated in non-small cell lung cancer and control cell cycle progression in a synergistic and Rb-dependent manner

microRNAs (miRNAs) are small non-coding RNAs that are frequently involved in carcinogenesis. Although many miRNAs form part of integrated networks, little information is available how they interact with each other to control cellular processes. miR-34a and miR-15a/16 are functionally related; they share common targets and control similar processes including G1-S cell cycle progression and apoptosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the combined action of miR-34a and miR-15a/16 in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cells.

Genetic diversity in an indigenous horse breed: implications for mating strategies and the control of future inbreeding

The Franches-Montagnes is an indigenous Swiss horse breed, with approximately 2500 foalings per year. The stud book is closed, and no introgression from other horse breeds was conducted since 1998. Since 2006, breeding values for 43 different traits (conformation, performance and coat colour) are estimated with a best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) multiple trait animal model. In this study, we evaluated the genetic diversity for the breeding population, considering the years from 2003 to 2008. Only horses with at least one progeny during that time span were included. Results were obtained based on pedigree information as well as from molecular markers. A series of software packages were screened to combine best the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) methodology with optimal genetic contribution theory. We looked for stallions with highest breeding values and lowest average relationship to the dam population. Breeding with such stallions is expected to lead to a selection gain, while lowering the future increase in inbreeding within the breed.

Evidence for a cognitive control network for goal-directed attention in simple sustained attention

The deterioration of performance over time is characteristic for sustained attention tasks. This so-called "performance decrement" is measured by the increase of reaction time (RT) over time. Some behavioural and neurobiological mechanisms of this phenomenon are not yet fully understood. Behaviourally, we examined the increase of RT over time and the inter-individual differences of this performance decrement. On the neurophysiological level, we investigated the task-relevant brain areas where neural activity was modulated by RT and searched for brain areas involved in good performance (i.e. participants with no or moderate performance decrement) as compared to poor performance (i.e. participants with a steep performance decrement). For this purpose, 20 healthy, young subjects performed a carefully designed task for simple sustained attention, namely a low-demanding version of the Rapid Visual Information Processing task. We employed a rapid event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) design. The behavioural results showed a significant increase of RT over time in the whole group, and also revealed that some participants were not as prone to the performance decrement as others. The latter was statistically significant comparing good versus poor performers. Moreover, high BOLD-responses were linked to longer RTs in a task-relevant bilateral fronto-cingulate-insular-parietal network. Among these regions, good performance was associated with significantly higher RT-BOLD correlations in the pre-supplementary motor area (pre-SMA). We concluded that the task-relevant bilateral fronto-cingulate-insular-parietal network was a cognitive control network responsible for goal-directed attention. The pre-SMA in particular might be associated with the performance decrement insofar that good performers could sustain activity in this brain region in order to monitor performance declines and adjust behavioural output.

Lung-function tests in neonates and infants with chronic lung disease: tidal breathing and respiratory control

This paper is the fourth in a series of reviews that will summarize available data and critically discuss the potential role of lung-function testing in infants with acute neonatal respiratory disorders and chronic lung disease of infancy. The current paper addresses information derived from tidal breathing measurements within the framework outlined in the introductory paper of this series, with particular reference to how these measurements inform on control of breathing. Infants with acute and chronic respiratory illness demonstrate differences in tidal breathing and its control that are of clinical consequence and can be measured objectively. The increased incidence of significant apnea in preterm infants and infants with chronic lung disease, together with the reportedly increased risk of sudden unexplained death within the latter group, suggests that control of breathing is affected by both maturation and disease. Clinical observations are supported by formal comparison of tidal breathing parameters and control of breathing indices in the research setting.

An interfering Go/No-go task does not affect accuracy in a Concealed Information Test

Following the idea that response inhibition processes play a central role in concealing information, the present study investigated the influence of a Go/No-go task as an interfering mental activity, performed parallel to the Concealed Information Test (CIT), on the detectability of concealed information. 40 undergraduate students participated in a mock-crime experiment and simultaneously performed a CIT and a Go/No-go task. Electrodermal activity (EDA), respiration line length (RLL), heart rate (HR) and finger pulse waveform length (FPWL) were registered. Reaction times were recorded as behavioral measures in the Go/No-go task as well as in the CIT. As a within-subject control condition, the CIT was also applied without an additional task. The parallel task did not influence the mean differences of the physiological measures of the mock-crime-related probe and the irrelevant items. This finding might possibly be due to the fact that the applied parallel task induced a tonic rather than a phasic mental activity, which did not influence differential responding to CIT items. No physiological evidence for an interaction between the parallel task and sub-processes of deception (e.g. inhibition) was found. Subjects' performance in the Go/No-go parallel task did not contribute to the detection of concealed information. Generalizability needs further investigations of different variations of the parallel task.

Information processing in long delay memory-guided saccades: further insights from TMS

The performance of memory-guided saccades with two different delays (3 s and 30 s of memorisation) was studied in eight subjects. Single pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) was applied simultaneously over the left and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) 1 s after target presentation. In both delays, stimulation significantly increased the percentage of error in amplitude of memory-guided saccades. Furthermore, the interfering effect of TMS was significantly higher in the short delay compared to that of the long delay paradigm. The results are discussed in the context of a mixed model of spatial working memory control including two components: First, serial information processing with a predominant role of the DLPFC during the early period of memorisation and, second, parallel information processing, which is independent from the DLPFC, operating during longer delays.

When one depends on the other: reporting of interaction in case-control and cohort studies

BACKGROUND: Interaction refers to the situation in which the effect of 1 exposure on an outcome differs across strata of another exposure. We did a survey of epidemiologic studies published in leading journals to examine how interaction is assessed and reported. METHODS: We selected 150 case-control and 75 cohort studies published between May 2001 and May 2007 in leading general medicine, epidemiology, and clinical specialist journals. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 225 studies, 138 (61%) addressed interaction. Among these, 25 (18%) presented no data or only a P value or a statement of statistical significance; 40 (29%) presented stratum-specific effect estimates but no meaningful comparison of these estimates; and 58 (42%) presented stratum-specific estimates and appropriate tests for interaction. Fifteen articles (11%) presented the individual effects of both exposures and also their joint effect or a product term, providing sufficient information to interpret interaction on an additive and multiplicative scale. Reporting was poorest in articles published in clinical specialist articles and most adequate in articles published in general medicine journals, with epidemiology journals in an intermediate position. CONCLUSIONS: A majority of articles reporting cohort and case-control studies address possible interactions between exposures. However, in about half of these, the information provided was unsatisfactory, and only 1 in 10 studies reported data that allowed readers to interpret interaction effects on an additive and multiplicative scale.

T1(Gd) gives comparable information as Delta T1 relaxation rate in dGEMRIC evaluation of cartilage repair tissue

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the relationship between T1 after intravenous contrast administration (T1Gd) and Delta relaxation rate (DeltaR1) = (1/T1(Gd) - 1/T1o) in the delayed Gadolinium-Enhanced MRI of cartilage (dGEMRIC) evaluation of cartilage repair tissue. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Thirty single MR examinations from 30 patients after matrix-associated autologous chondrocyte transplantations of the knee joint with different postoperative intervals were examined using an 8-channel knee-coil at 3T. T1 mapping using a 3D GRE sequence with a 35/10 degrees flip angle excitation pulse combination was performed before and after contrast administration (dGEMRIC technique). T1 postcontrast (T1(Gd)) and the DeltaR1 (relative index of pre- and postcontrast R1 value) were calculated for repair tissue and the weight-bearing normal appearing control cartilage. For evaluation of the different postoperative intervals, MR exams were subdivided into 3 groups (up to 12 months, 12-24 months, more than 24 months). For statistical analysis Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated. RESULTS: The mean value for T1 postcontrast was 427 +/- 159 ms, for DeltaR1 1.85 +/- 1.0; in reference cartilage 636 +/- 181 ms for T1 postcontrast and 0.83 +/- 0.5 for DeltaR1.The correlation coefficients were highly significant between T1 (Gd) and DeltaR1 for repair tissue (0.969) as well as normal reference cartilage (0.928) in total, and for the reparative cartilage in the early, middle postoperative, and late postoperative interval after surgery (R values: -0.986, -0.970, and -0.978, respectively). Using either T1(Gd) or DeltaR1, the 2 metrics resulted in similar conclusions regarding the time course of change of repair tissue and control tissue, namely that highly significant (P > 0.01) differences between cartilage repair tissue and reference cartilage were found for all follow-up groups. Additionally, for both metrics highly significant differences (P < 0.01) between early follow up and the 2 later postoperative groups for cartilage repair tissue were found. No statistical differences were found between the 2 later follow-up groups of reparative cartilage either for T1 (Gd) or DeltaR1. CONCLUSION: The high correlation between T1 (Gd) and DeltaR1 and the comparable conclusions reached utilizing metric implies that T1 mapping before intravenous administration of MR contrast agent is not necessary for the evaluation of repair tissue. This will help to reduce costs, inconvenience for the patients, simplifies the examination procedure, and makes dGEMRIC more attractive for follow-up of patients after cartilage repair surgeries.

Reliability of intraoperative high-resolution 2D ultrasound as an alternative to high-field strength MR imaging for tumor resection control: a prospective comparative study

OBJECT: Ultrasound may be a reliable but simpler alternative to intraoperative MR imaging (iMR imaging) for tumor resection control. However, its reliability in the detection of tumor remnants has not been definitely proven. The aim of the study was to compare high-field iMR imaging (1.5 T) and high-resolution 2D ultrasound in terms of tumor resection control. METHODS: A prospective comparative study of 26 consecutive patients was performed. The following parameters were compared: the existence of tumor remnants after presumed radical removal and the quality of the images. Tumor remnants were categorized as: detectable with both imaging modalities or visible only with 1 modality. RESULTS: Tumor remnants were detected in 21 cases (80.8%) with iMR imaging. All large remnants were demonstrated with both modalities, and their image quality was good. Two-dimensional ultrasound was not as effective in detecting remnants<1 cm. Two remnants detected with iMR imaging were missed by ultrasound. In 2 cases suspicious signals visible only on ultrasound images were misinterpreted as remnants but turned out to be a blood clot and peritumoral parenchyma. The average time for acquisition of an ultrasound image was 2 minutes, whereas that for an iMR image was approximately 10 minutes. Neither modality resulted in any procedure-related complications or morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: Intraoperative MR imaging is more precise in detecting small tumor remnants than 2D ultrasound. Nevertheless, the latter may be used as a less expensive and less time-consuming alternative that provides almost real-time feedback information. Its accuracy is highest in case of more confined, deeply located remnants. In cases of more superficially located remnants, its role is more limited.