Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20���year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of ���0.08��C (���0.13��C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called ���global dimming��� period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Modelling Nd-isotopes with a coarse resolution ocean circulation model: Sensitivities to model parameters and source/sink distributions

The neodymium (Nd) isotopic composition (Nd) of seawater is a quasi-conservative tracer of water mass mixing and is assumed to hold great potential for paleoceanographic studies. Here we present a comprehensive approach for the simulation of the two neodymium isotopes 143Nd, and 144Nd using the Bern3D model, a low resolution ocean model. The high computational efficiency of the Bern3D model in conjunction with our comprehensive approach allows us to systematically and extensively explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and Nd to the parametrisation of sources and sinks. Previous studies have been restricted in doing so either by the chosen approach or by computational costs. Our study thus presents the most comprehensive survey of the marine Nd cycle to date. Our model simulates both Nd concentrations as well as Nd in good agreement with observations. Nd covaries with salinity, thus underlining its potential as a water mass proxy. Results confirm that the continental margins are required as a Nd source to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. We estimate this source to be slightly smaller than reported in previous studies and find that above a certain magnitude its magnitude affects Nd only to a small extent. On the other hand, the parametrisation of the reversible scavenging considerably affects the ability of the model to simulate both, Nd concentrations and Nd. Furthermore, despite their small contribution, we find dust and rivers to be important components of the Nd cycle. In additional experiments, we systematically varied the diapycnal diffusivity as well as the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux to explore the sensitivity of Nd concentrations and its isotopic signature to the strength and geometry of the overturning circulation. These experiments reveal that Nd concentrations and Nd are comparatively little affected by variations in diapycnal diffusivity and the Atlantic-to-Pacific freshwater flux. In contrast, an adequate representation of Nd sources and sinks is crucial to simulate Nd concentrations and Nd consistent with observations. The good agreement of our results with observations paves the way for the evaluation of the paleoceanographic potential of Nd in further model studies.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA���s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute���Earth System Model���Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We ���nd that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15���20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

A new, fast and flexible radiative transfer method for Venus general circulation models

We present a new radiation scheme for the Oxford Planetary Unified Model System for Venus, suitable for the solar and thermal bands. This new and fast radiative parameterization uses a different approach in the two main radiative wavelength bands: solar radiation (0.1-5.5 mu m) and thermal radiation (1.7-260 mu m). The solar radiation calculation is based on the delta-Eddington approximation (two-stream-type) with an adding layer method. For the thermal radiation case, a code based on an absorptivity/emissivity formulation is used. The new radiative transfer formulation implemented is intended to be computationally light, to allow its incorporation in 3D global circulation models, but still allowing for the calculation of the effect of atmospheric conditions on radiative fluxes. This will allow us to investigate the dynamical-radiative-microphysical feedbacks. The model flexibility can be also used to explore the uncertainties in the Venus atmosphere such as the optical properties in the deep atmosphere or cloud amount. The results of radiative cooling and heating rates and the global-mean radiative-convective equilibrium temperature profiles for different atmospheric conditions are presented and discussed. This new scheme works in an atmospheric column and can be easily implemented in 3D Venus global circulation models. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulated winter circulation types in the North Atlantic and European region for preindustrial and glacial conditions

[1] Winter circulation types under preindustrial and glacial conditions are investigated and used to quantify their impact on precipitation. The analysis is based on daily mean sea level pressure fields of a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model and focuses on the North Atlantic and European region. We find that glacial circulation types are dominated by patterns with an east-west pressure gradient, which clearly differs from the predominantly zonal patterns for the recent past. This is also evident in the frequency of occurrence of circulation types when projecting preindustrial circulation types onto the glacial simulations. The elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet is identified as a major cause for these differences. In areas of strong precipitation signals in glacial times, the changes in the frequencies of occurrence of the circulation types explain up to 60% of the total difference between preindustrial and glacial simulations.

The well-being model: a new drug interaction model for positive and negative effects

BACKGROUND: Drugs are routinely combined in anesthesia and pain management to obtain an enhancement of the desired effects. However, a parallel enhancement of the undesired effects might take place as well, resulting in a limited therapeutic usefulness. Therefore, when addressing the question of optimal drug combinations, side effects must be taken into account. METHODS: By extension of a previously published interaction model, the authors propose a method to study drug interactions considering also their side effects. A general outcome parameter identified as patient's well-being is defined by superposition of positive and negative effects. Well-being response surfaces are computed and analyzed for varying drugs pharmacodynamics and interaction types. In particular, the existence of multiple maxima and of optimal drug combinations is investigated for the combination of two drugs. RESULTS: Both drug pharmacodynamics and interaction type affect the well-being surface and the deriving optimal combinations. The effect of the interaction parameters can be explained in terms of synergy and antagonism and remains unchanged for varying pharmacodynamics. For all simulations performed for the combination of two drugs, the presence of more than one maximum was never observed. CONCLUSIONS: The model is consistent with clinical knowledge and supports previously published experimental results on optimal drug combinations. This new framework improves understanding of the characteristics of drug combinations used in clinical practice and can be used in clinical research to identify optimal drug dosing.

Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

In terms of atmospheric impact, the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo (1991) is the best characterized large eruption on record. We investigate here the model-derived stratospheric warming following the Pinatubo eruption as derived from SAGE II extinction data including recent improvements in the processing algorithm. This method, termed SAGE_4��, makes use of the four wavelengths (385, 452, 525 and 1024 nm) of the SAGE II data when available, and uses a data-filling procedure in the opacity-induced "gap" regions. Using SAGE_4��, we derived aerosol size distributions that properly reproduce extinction coefficients also at much longer wavelengths. This provides a good basis for calculating the absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation and the resulting stratospheric heating. However, we also show that the use of this data set in a global chemistry���climate model (CCM) still leads to stronger aerosol-induced stratospheric heating than observed, with temperatures partly even higher than the already too high values found by many models in recent general circulation model (GCM) and CCM intercomparisons. This suggests that the overestimation of the stratospheric warming after the Pinatubo eruption may not be ascribed to an insufficient observational database but instead to using outdated data sets, to deficiencies in the implementation of the forcing data, or to radiative or dynamical model artifacts. Conversely, the SAGE_4�� approach reduces the infrared absorption in the tropical tropopause region, resulting in a significantly better agreement with the post-volcanic temperature record at these altitudes.

Volcanic forcing for climate modeling: a new microphysics-based data set covering years 1600���present

As the understanding and representation of the impacts of volcanic eruptions on climate have improved in the last decades, uncertainties in the stratospheric aerosol forcing from large eruptions are now linked not only to visible optical depth estimates on a global scale but also to details on the size, latitude and altitude distributions of the stratospheric aerosols. Based on our understanding of these uncertainties, we propose a new model-based approach to generating a volcanic forcing for general circulation model (GCM) and chemistry���climate model (CCM) simulations. This new volcanic forcing, covering the 1600���present period, uses an aerosol microphysical model to provide a realistic, physically consistent treatment of the stratospheric sulfate aerosols. Twenty-six eruptions were modeled individually using the latest available ice cores aerosol mass estimates and historical data on the latitude and date of eruptions. The evolution of aerosol spatial and size distribution after the sulfur dioxide discharge are hence characterized for each volcanic eruption. Large variations are seen in hemispheric partitioning and size distributions in relation to location/date of eruptions and injected SO2 masses. Results for recent eruptions show reasonable agreement with observations. By providing these new estimates of spatial distributions of shortwave and long-wave radiative perturbations, this volcanic forcing may help to better constrain the climate model responses to volcanic eruptions in the 1600���present period. The final data set consists of 3-D values (with constant longitude) of spectrally resolved extinction coefficients, single scattering albedos and asymmetry factors calculated for different wavelength bands upon request. Surface area densities for heterogeneous chemistry are also provided.

Classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Disease Using Model-Based MR and Magnetization Transfer Imaging

Early stratification of degenerative processes is a prerequisite to warrant therapeutic options in prodromal Alzheimer disease. Our aim was to investigate differences in cerebral macromolecular tissue composition between patients with AD, mild cognitive impairment, and age- and sex-matched healthy controls by using model-based magnetization transfer with a binary spin-bath magnetization transfer model and magnetization transfer ratio at 1.5 T.

The impact of different glacial boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in the North Atlantic region

Using a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of different glacial boundary conditions on precipitation and atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic region is investigated. Six 30-yr time slice experiments of the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 thousand years before the present (ka BP) and of a less pronounced glacial state ��� the Middle Weichselian (65 ka BP) ��� are compared to analyse the sensitivity to changes in the ice sheet distribution, in the radiative forcing and in the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice, which are taken from a lower-resolved, but fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The strongest differences are found for simulations with different heights of the Laurentide ice sheet. A high surface elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet leads to a southward displacement of the jet stream and the storm track in the North Atlantic region. These changes in the atmospheric dynamics generate a band of increased precipitation in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic to southern Europe in winter, while the precipitation pattern in summer is only marginally affected. The impact of the radiative forcing differences between the two glacial periods and of the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice are of second order importance compared to the one of the Laurentide ice sheet. They affect the atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in a similar but less pronounced manner compared with the topographic changes.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Repair of superficial osteochondral defects with an autologous scaffold-free cartilage construct in a caprine model: implantation method and short-term results

OBJECTIVE: To compare four different implantation modalities for the repair of superficial osteochondral defects in a caprine model using autologous, scaffold-free, engineered cartilage constructs, and to describe the short-term outcome of successfully implanted constructs. METHODS: Scaffold-free, autologous cartilage constructs were implanted within superficial osteochondral defects created in the stifle joints of nine adult goats. The implants were distributed between four 6-mm-diameter superficial osteochondral defects created in the trochlea femoris and secured in the defect using a covering periosteal flap (PF) alone or in combination with adhesives (platelet-rich plasma (PRP) or fibrin), or using PRP alone. Eight weeks after implantation surgery, the animals were killed. The defect sites were excised and subjected to macroscopic and histopathologic analyses. RESULTS: At 8 weeks, implants that had been held in place exclusively with a PF were well integrated both laterally and basally. The repair tissue manifested an architecture similar to that of hyaline articular cartilage. However, most of the implants that had been glued in place in the absence of a PF were lost during the initial 4-week phase of restricted joint movement. The use of human fibrin glue (FG) led to massive cell infiltration of the subchondral bone. CONCLUSIONS: The implantation of autologous, scaffold-free, engineered cartilage constructs might best be performed beneath a PF without the use of tissue adhesives. Successfully implanted constructs showed hyaline-like characteristics in adult goats within 2 months. Long-term animal studies and pilot clinical trials are now needed to evaluate the efficacy of this treatment strategy.