A Nonstationary Space-Time Gaussian Process Model for Partially Converged Simulations

In the context of expensive numerical experiments, a promising solution for alleviating the computational costs consists of using partially converged simulations instead of exact solutions. The gain in computational time is at the price of precision in the response. This work addresses the issue of fitting a Gaussian process model to partially converged simulation data for further use in prediction. The main challenge consists of the adequate approximation of the error due to partial convergence, which is correlated in both design variables and time directions. Here, we propose fitting a Gaussian process in the joint space of design parameters and computational time. The model is constructed by building a nonstationary covariance kernel that reflects accurately the actual structure of the error. Practical solutions are proposed for solving parameter estimation issues associated with the proposed model. The method is applied to a computational fluid dynamics test case and shows significant improvement in prediction compared to a classical kriging model.

Identification of adequate neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) during systematic increases in the NAVA level

Neurally adjusted ventilatory assist (NAVA) delivers airway pressure (P(aw)) in proportion to the electrical activity of the diaphragm (EAdi) using an adjustable proportionality constant (NAVA level, cm·H(2)O/μV). During systematic increases in the NAVA level, feedback-controlled down-regulation of the EAdi results in a characteristic two-phased response in P(aw) and tidal volume (Vt). The transition from the 1st to the 2nd response phase allows identification of adequate unloading of the respiratory muscles with NAVA (NAVA(AL)). We aimed to develop and validate a mathematical algorithm to identify NAVA(AL). P(aw), Vt, and EAdi were recorded while systematically increasing the NAVA level in 19 adult patients. In a multistep approach, inspiratory P(aw) peaks were first identified by dividing the EAdi into inspiratory portions using Gaussian mixture modeling. Two polynomials were then fitted onto the curves of both P(aw) peaks and Vt. The beginning of the P(aw) and Vt plateaus, and thus NAVA(AL), was identified at the minimum of squared polynomial derivative and polynomial fitting errors. A graphical user interface was developed in the Matlab computing environment. Median NAVA(AL) visually estimated by 18 independent physicians was 2.7 (range 0.4 to 5.8) cm·H(2)O/μV and identified by our model was 2.6 (range 0.6 to 5.0) cm·H(2)O/μV. NAVA(AL) identified by our model was below the range of visually estimated NAVA(AL) in two instances and was above in one instance. We conclude that our model identifies NAVA(AL) in most instances with acceptable accuracy for application in clinical routine and research.

Expectation Conditional Maximization-Based Deformable Shape Registration

This paper addresses the issue of matching statistical and non-rigid shapes, and introduces an Expectation Conditional Maximization-based deformable shape registration (ECM-DSR) algorithm. Similar to previous works, we cast the statistical and non-rigid shape registration problem into a missing data framework and handle the unknown correspondences with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM). The registration problem is then solved by fitting the GMM centroids to the data. But unlike previous works where equal isotropic covariances are used, our new algorithm uses heteroscedastic covariances whose values are iteratively estimated from the data. A previously introduced virtual observation concept is adopted here to simplify the estimation of the registration parameters. Based on this concept, we derive closed-form solutions to estimate parameters for statistical or non-rigid shape registrations in each iteration. Our experiments conducted on synthesized and real data demonstrate that the ECM-DSR algorithm has various advantages over existing algorithms.

Tramadol and o-desmethyl tramadol clearance maturation and disposition in humans: a pooled pharmacokinetic study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES We aimed to study the impact of size, maturation and cytochrome P450 2D6 (CYP2D6) genotype activity score as predictors of intravenous tramadol disposition. METHODS Tramadol and O-desmethyl tramadol (M1) observations in 295 human subjects (postmenstrual age 25 weeks to 84.8 years, weight 0.5-186 kg) were pooled. A population pharmacokinetic analysis was performed using a two-compartment model for tramadol and two additional M1 compartments. Covariate analysis included weight, age, sex, disease characteristics (healthy subject or patient) and CYP2D6 genotype activity. A sigmoid maturation model was used to describe age-related changes in tramadol clearance (CLPO), M1 formation clearance (CLPM) and M1 elimination clearance (CLMO). A phenotype-based mixture model was used to identify CLPM polymorphism. RESULTS Differences in clearances were largely accounted for by maturation and size. The time to reach 50 % of adult clearance (TM50) values was used to describe maturation. CLPM (TM50 39.8 weeks) and CLPO (TM50 39.1 weeks) displayed fast maturation, while CLMO matured slower, similar to glomerular filtration rate (TM50 47 weeks). The phenotype-based mixture model identified a slow and a faster metabolizer group. Slow metabolizers comprised 9.8 % of subjects with 19.4 % of faster metabolizer CLPM. Low CYP2D6 genotype activity was associated with lower (25 %) than faster metabolizer CLPM, but only 32 % of those with low genotype activity were in the slow metabolizer group. CONCLUSIONS Maturation and size are key predictors of variability. A two-group polymorphism was identified based on phenotypic M1 formation clearance. Maturation of tramadol elimination occurs early (50 % of adult value at term gestation).

Multi-Environment Model Estimation for Motility Analysis of Caernorhabditis elegans

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a well-known model organism used to investigate fundamental questions in biology. Motility assays of this small roundworm are designed to study the relationships between genes and behavior. Commonly, motility analysis is used to classify nematode movements and characterize them quantitatively. Over the past years, C. elegans' motility has been studied across a wide range of environments, including crawling on substrates, swimming in fluids, and locomoting through microfluidic substrates. However, each environment often requires customized image processing tools relying on heuristic parameter tuning. In the present study, we propose a novel Multi-Environment Model Estimation (MEME) framework for automated image segmentation that is versatile across various environments. The MEME platform is constructed around the concept of Mixture of Gaussian (MOG) models, where statistical models for both the background environment and the nematode appearance are explicitly learned and used to accurately segment a target nematode. Our method is designed to simplify the burden often imposed on users; here, only a single image which includes a nematode in its environment must be provided for model learning. In addition, our platform enables the extraction of nematode ‘skeletons’ for straightforward motility quantification. We test our algorithm on various locomotive environments and compare performances with an intensity-based thresholding method. Overall, MEME outperforms the threshold-based approach for the overwhelming majority of cases examined. Ultimately, MEME provides researchers with an attractive platform for C. elegans' segmentation and ‘skeletonizing’ across a wide range of motility assays.

Femur Specific Polyaffine Model to Regularize the Log-Domain Demons Registration

Osteoarticular allograft transplantation is a popular treatment method in wide surgical resections with large defects. For this reason hospitals are building bone data banks. Performing the optimal allograft selection on bone banks is crucial to the surgical outcome and patient recovery. However, current approaches are very time consuming hindering an efficient selection. We present an automatic method based on registration of femur bones to overcome this limitation. We introduce a new regularization term for the log-domain demons algorithm. This term replaces the standard Gaussian smoothing with a femur specific polyaffine model. The polyaffine femur model is constructed with two affine (femoral head and condyles) and one rigid (shaft) transformation. Our main contribution in this paper is to show that the demons algorithm can be improved in specific cases with an appropriate model. We are not trying to find the most optimal polyaffine model of the femur, but the simplest model with a minimal number of parameters. There is no need to optimize for different number of regions, boundaries and choice of weights, since this fine tuning will be done automatically by a final demons relaxation step with Gaussian smoothing. The newly developed synthesis approach provides a clear anatomically motivated modeling contribution through the specific three component transformation model, and clearly shows a performance improvement (in terms of anatomical meaningful correspondences) on 146 CT images of femurs compared to a standard multiresolution demons. In addition, this simple model improves the robustness of the demons while preserving its accuracy. The ground truth are manual measurements performed by medical experts.

RecNcMIC3-1-R is a microneme- and rhoptry-based chimeric antigen that protects against acute neosporosis and limits cerebral parasite load in the mouse model for Neospora caninum infection

In order to achieve host cell entry, the apicomplexan parasite Neospora caninum relies on the contents of distinct organelles, named micronemes, rhoptries and dense granules, which are secreted at defined timepoints during and after host cell entry. It was shown previously that a vaccine composed of a mixture of three recombinant antigens, corresponding to the two microneme antigens NcMIC1 and NcMIC3 and the rhoptry protein NcROP2, prevented disease and limited cerebral infection and transplacental transmission in mice. In this study, we selected predicted immunogenic domains of each of these proteins and created four different chimeric antigens, with the respective domains incorporated into these chimers in different orders. Following vaccination, mice were challenged intraperitoneally with 2 × 10(6)N. caninum tachzyoites and were then carefully monitored for clinical symptoms during 4 weeks post-infection. Of the four chimeric antigens, only recNcMIC3-1-R provided complete protection against disease with 100% survivors, compared to 40-80% of survivors in the other groups. Serology did not show any clear differences in total IgG, IgG1 and IgG2a levels between the different treatment groups. Vaccination with all four chimeric variants generated an IL-4 biased cytokine expression, which then shifted to an IFN-γ-dominated response following experimental infection. Sera of recNcMIC3-1-R vaccinated mice reacted with each individual recombinant antigen, as well as with three distinct bands in Neospora extracts with similar Mr as NcMIC1, NcMIC3 and NcROP2, and exhibited distinct apical labeling in tachyzoites. These results suggest that recNcMIC3-1-R is an interesting chimeric vaccine candidate and should be followed up in subsequent studies in a fetal infection model.

On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

Estimating and quantifying uncertainties on level sets using the Vorob'ev expectation and deviation with Gaussian process models

Several methods based on Kriging have recently been proposed for calculating a probability of failure involving costly-to-evaluate functions. A closely related problem is to estimate the set of inputs leading to a response exceeding a given threshold. Now, estimating such a level set—and not solely its volume—and quantifying uncertainties on it are not straightforward. Here we use notions from random set theory to obtain an estimate of the level set, together with a quantification of estimation uncertainty. We give explicit formulae in the Gaussian process set-up and provide a consistency result. We then illustrate how space-filling versus adaptive design strategies may sequentially reduce level set estimation uncertainty.

Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

Transcutaneous treatment with vetdrop(®) sustains the adjacent cartilage in a microfracturing joint defect model in sheep

The significance of the adjacent cartilage in cartilage defect healing is not yet completely understood. Furthermore, it is unknown if the adjacent cartilage can somehow be influenced into responding after cartilage damage. The present study was undertaken to investigate whether the adjacent cartilage can be better sustained after microfracturing in a cartilage defect model in the stifle joint of sheep using a transcutaneous treatment concept (Vetdrop(®)). Carprofen and chito-oligosaccharids were added either as single components or as a mixture to a vehicle suspension consisting of a herbal carrier oil in a water-in-oil phase. This mixture was administered onto the skin with the aid of a specific applicator during 6 weeks in 28 sheep, allocated into 6 different groups, that underwent microfracturing surgery either on the left or the right medial femoral condyle. Two groups served as control and were either treated intravenously or sham treated with oxygen only. Sheep were sacrificed and their medial condyle histologically evaluated qualitatively and semi-quantitatively according to 4 different scoring systems (Mankin, ICRS, Little and O'Driscoll). The adjacent cartilage of animals of group 4 treated transcutaneously with vehicle, chito-oligosaccharids and carprofen had better histological scores compared to all the other groups (Mankin 3.3±0.8, ICRS 15.7±0.7, Little 9.0±1.4). Complete defect filling was absent from the transcutaneous treatment groups. The experiment suggests that the adjacent cartilage is susceptible to treatment and that the combination of vehicle, chitooligosaccharids and carprofen may sustain the adjacent cartilage during the recovery period.