Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

Novel genetic risk markers for ulcerative colitis in the IL2/IL21 region are in epistasis with IL23R and suggest a common genetic background for ulcerative colitis and celiac disease

OBJECTIVES: Recently, a genome-wide association study showed that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the chromosome 4q27 region containing IL2 and IL21 are associated with celiac disease. Given the increased prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among celiac disease patients, we investigated the possible involvement of these SNPs in IBD. METHODS: Five SNPs strongly associated with celiac disease within the KIAA1109/TENR/IL2/IL21 linkage disequilibrium block on chromosome 4q27 and one coding SNP within the IL21 gene were analyzed in a large German IBD cohort. The study population comprised a total of 2,948 Caucasian individuals, including 1,461 IBD patients (ulcerative colitis (UC): n=514, Crohn's disease (CD): n=947) and 1,487 healthy unrelated controls. RESULTS: Three of the five celiac disease risk markers had a protective effect on UC susceptibility, and this effect remained significant after correcting for multiple testing: rs6840978: P=0.0082, P(corr)=0.049, odds ratio (OR) 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.93; rs6822844: P=0.0028, P(corr)=0.017, OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.90; rs13119723: P=0.0058, P(corr)=0.035, OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.61-0.92. A haplotype consisting of the six SNPs tested was markedly associated with UC susceptibility (P=0.0025, P(corr)=0.015, OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58-0.89). Moreover, in UC, epistasis was observed between the IL23R SNP rs1004819 and three SNPs in the KIAA1109/TENR/IL2/IL21 block (rs13151961, rs13119723, and rs6822844). CONCLUSIONS: Similar to other autoimmune diseases such as celiac disease, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, Graves' disease, and psoriatic arthritis, genetic variation in the chromosome 4q27 region predisposes to UC, suggesting a common genetic background for these diseases.

Reporting of statistical results in prosthodontic and implantology journals: p values or confidence intervals?

PURPOSE Confidence intervals (CIs) are integral to the interpretation of the precision and clinical relevance of research findings. The aim of this study was to ascertain the frequency of reporting of CIs in leading prosthodontic and dental implantology journals and to explore possible factors associated with improved reporting. MATERIALS AND METHODS Thirty issues of nine journals in prosthodontics and implant dentistry were accessed, covering the years 2005 to 2012: The Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry, Journal of Oral Rehabilitation, The International Journal of Prosthodontics, The International Journal of Periodontics & Restorative Dentistry, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, Implant Dentistry, and Journal of Dentistry. Articles were screened and the reporting of CIs and P values recorded. Other information including study design, region of authorship, involvement of methodologists, and ethical approval was also obtained. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify characteristics associated with reporting of CIs. RESULTS Interrater agreement for the data extraction performed was excellent (kappa = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.89). CI reporting was limited, with mean reporting across journals of 14%. CI reporting was associated with journal type, study design, and involvement of a methodologist or statistician. CONCLUSIONS Reporting of CI in implant dentistry and prosthodontic journals requires improvement. Improved reporting will aid appraisal of the clinical relevance of research findings by providing a range of values within which the effect size lies, thus giving the end user the opportunity to interpret the results in relation to clinical practice.