Methodological Report on Kaul and Wolf's Working Papers on the Effect of Plain Packaging on Smoking Prevalence in Australia and the Criticism Raised by OxyRomandie

This report contains a methodological assessment of two working papers by Ashok Kaul and Michael Wolf on the effect of plain packaging on smoking prevalence in Australia and the criticism raised against these working papers by OxyRomandie. First, the potential of the data used by Kaul and Wolf for identifying causal effects is discussed. Second, a reanalysis of the data is provided. Third, the criticism raised by OxyRomandie is commented.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

[Effects of tobacco use on systemic health: relevant information for dentistry (II)--part 2: cardiovascular diseases and public health issues]

This is the sixth and concluding part of a series of publications from the Swiss task force named "Smoking - Intervention in the private dental office" on the topic "tobacco use and dental medicine". The focus of this review is the effects of smoking for the development of atherosclerosis as pathohistological correlate for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), arterial occlusive disease, and cerebrovascular diseases (stroke). Additionally, a causal relationship between tobacco use and an increased rate for complications during pregnancy and child birth will be discussed. Next to causal therapy of local and systemic diseases in general, an emphasis must be given to tobacco use prevention and cessation. Finally, important public health issues concerning smoking and tobacco use will be demonstrated, and options to improve the current situation will be presented.

[Effects of tobacco use on general health: relevant information for dentistry (I)--part 1: pulmonary diseases and other malignancies]

This fifth part of a series of publications from the Swiss task force named "Smoking--Intervention in the private dental office" on the topic "tobacco use and dental medicine" focuses on the effects of tobacco use on general health. A significant increase of tobacco use associated morbidity and mortality for many cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases has been well documented in the literature. In this review, the epidemiologic background as well as the pathophysiological fundamentals for tobacco-mediated pulmonary diseases is presented, focusing especially on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lung cancer. In addition, a causal relationship between nicotine abuse and an increased carcinoma incidence for other malignancies but lung cancer will be discussed. Regarding the evidence in the present literature, it is undisputable that smoking is the most preventable cause for COPD and lung cancer.

Fit between situational and dispositional goal orientation, and its effects on flow experience and affective well-being during sports.

Flow represents an optimal psychological state that is intrinsically rewarding. However, to date only a few studies have investigated the conditions for flow in sports. The present research aims to expand our understanding of the psychological factors that promote the flow experience in sports, focusing on the person-goal fit, or more precisely on the athletes’ situational and dispositional goal orientations. We hypothesize that a fit between an athlete’s situational and dispositional approach versus avoidance goal orientation should promote flow, whereas a non-fit will hinder flow during sports. In addition to the flow experience, we hypothesize that an athlete’s affective well-being is also affected by the person-goal fit. Here our assumptions are theoretically rooted in research on person-environment fit. An experimental study in an ecologically valid sport setting was conducted in order to draw causal conclusions and derive useful strategies for the practice of sports. Specifically, we investigated 67 male soccer players from a regional amateur league during a regular training session. They were randomly assigned to an approach or avoidance goal group and asked to take five penalty shots. Immediately afterwards, their flow experience and affective well-being during the penalty shootout were measured. As predicted, soccer players with a strong dispositional approach goal orientation experienced more flow and reported higher affective well-being when they were assigned to the approach goal. In contrast, soccer players with a strong dispositional avoidance goal orientation benefited from being assigned an avoidance goal in terms of their flow experience and affective well-being. The results are discussed critically with respect to their theoretical and practical implications.

Status and Causal Pathway Assessments Supporting River Basin Management

The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires a status assessment of all water bodies. If that status is deteriorated, the WFD urges the identification of its potential causes in order to be able to suggest appropriate management measures. The instrument of investigative monitoring allows for such identification, provided that appropriate tools are available to link the observed effects to causative stressors, while unravelling confounding factors. In this chapter, the state of the art of status and causal pathway assessment is described for the major stressors responsible for the deterioration of European water bodies, i.e. toxicity, acidification, salinisation, eutrophication and oxygen depletion, parasites and pathogens, invasive alien species, hydromorphological degradation, changing water levels as well as sediments and suspended matter. For each stressor, an extensive description of the potential effects on the ecological status is given. Secondly, stressor-specific abiotic and biotic indicators are described that allow for a first indication of probable causes, based on the assessment of available monitoring data. Subsequently, more advanced tools for site-specific confirmation of stressors at hand are discussed. Finally, the local status assessments are put into the perspective of the risk for downstream stretches in order to be able to prioritise stressors and to be able to select appropriate measures for mitigation of the risks resulting from these stressors.

The Democratizing Effects of Multilateral Organizations: A Cautionary Note on the WTO

The field of international relations has been obsessed with democracy and democratization and its effects on international cooperation for a long time. More recently, research has turned its focus on how international organizations enhance democracy. This article contributes to this debate and applies a prominent liberal framework to study the ‘outside-in’ effects of the World Trade Organization. The article offers a critical reading of democratization through IO membership. It provides for an assessment of the dominant framework put forward by Keohane et al. (2009). In doing so, it develops a set of empirical strategies to test conjectured causal mechanisms with respect to the WTO, and illustrates the potential application by drawing on selected empirical evidence from trade politics. Finally, it proposes a number of analytical revisions to the liberal framework and outlines avenues for future research.

Time-course of "off-line" prefrontal rTMS effects--a PET study.

Low-frequency "off-line" repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over the course of several minutes has attained considerable attention as a research tool in cognitive neuroscience due to its ability to induce functional disruptions of brain areas. This disruptive rTMS effect is highly valuable for revealing a causal relationship between brain and behavior. However, its influence on remote interconnected areas and, more importantly, the duration of the induced neurophysiological effects, remain unknown. These aspects are critical for a study design in the context of cognitive neuroscience. In order to investigate these issues, 12 healthy male subjects underwent 8 H(2)(15)O positron emission tomography (PET) scans after application of long-train low-frequency rTMS to the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Immediately after the stimulation train, regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) increases were present under the stimulation site as well as in other prefrontal cortical areas, including the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (VLPFC) ipsilateral to the stimulation site. The mean increases in rCBF returned to baseline within 9 min. The duration of this unilateral prefrontal rTMS effect on rCBF is of particular interest to those who aim to influence behavior in cognitive paradigms that use an "off-line" approach.

Survival effects of inferior vena cava filter in patients with acute symptomatic venous thromboembolism and a significant bleeding risk.

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to investigate the survival effects of inferior vena cava filters in patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) who had a significant bleeding risk. BACKGROUND The effectiveness of inferior vena cava filter use among patients with acute symptomatic VTE and known significant bleeding risk remains unclear. METHODS In this prospective cohort study of patients with acute VTE identified from the RIETE (Computerized Registry of Patients With Venous Thromboembolism), we assessed the association between inferior vena cava filter insertion for known significant bleeding risk and the outcomes of all-cause mortality, pulmonary embolism (PE)-related mortality, and VTE rates through 30 days after the initiation of VTE treatment. Propensity score matching was used to adjust for the likelihood of receiving a filter. RESULTS Of the 40,142 eligible patients who had acute symptomatic VTE, 371 underwent filter placement because of known significant bleeding risk. A total of 344 patients treated with a filter were matched with 344 patients treated without a filter. Propensity score-matched pairs showed a nonsignificant trend toward lower risk of all-cause death for filter insertion compared with no insertion (6.6% vs. 10.2%; p = 0.12). The risk-adjusted PE-related mortality rate was lower for filter insertion than no insertion (1.7% vs. 4.9%; p = 0.03). Risk-adjusted recurrent VTE rates were higher for filter insertion than for no insertion (6.1% vs. 0.6%; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS In patients presenting with VTE and with a significant bleeding risk, inferior vena cava filter insertion compared with anticoagulant therapy was associated with a lower risk of PE-related death and a higher risk of recurrent VTE. However, study design limitations do not imply a causal relationship between filter insertion and outcome.

Cage-induced stereotypies, perseveration and the effects of environmental enrichment in laboratory mice.

When kept in barren and restrictive cages, animals frequently develop stereotypic behaviour patterns that are characterized by high repetition rates, conspicuous invariance and an apparent lack of function. Although millions of animals are affected, the underlying causes and mechanisms are still unclear. Growing evidence suggests that cage-induced stereotypies may reflect pathological dysfunction within basal ganglia circuitry expressed by perseverative behaviour. In order to assess whether variation in stereotypy performance and variation in perseverative behaviour may have a common cause in ICR CD-1 mice, we assessed the effects of environmental enrichment on both phenomena. We raised 48 female ICR CD-1 mice in standard or enriched cages from three weeks to either 6 or 11 months of age and measured stereotypy level in the home cage and perseveration on an extinction task. We further examined whether enriched rearing conditions (early enrichment) protect mice from the developing stereotypies later in life and whether stereotypies developed in barren cages would persist in an enriched environment (late enrichment) by transferring standard mice to enriched cages and vice versa for 14 weeks after completion of the extinction task. We found no evidence for a causal relation between stereotypy and perseveration in mice. However, transfer to enriched cages reduced stereotypy levels significantly both at 6 and 11 months of age indicating that stereotypies had not become established yet. Finally, we found that removing enrichments at both ages did not induce higher stereotypy levels, thereby confirming earlier reports of a neuroprotective effect of early enrichment.