Sexual transmission of HIV according to viral load and antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES: To synthesize the evidence on the risk of HIV transmission through unprotected sexual intercourse according to viral load and treatment with combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase and conference abstracts from 1996-2009. We included longitudinal studies of serodiscordant couples reporting on HIV transmission according to plasma viral load or use of ART and used random-effects Poisson regression models to obtain summary transmission rates [with 95% confidence intervals, (CI)]. If there were no transmission events we estimated an upper 97.5% confidence limit. RESULTS: We identified 11 cohorts reporting on 5021 heterosexual couples and 461 HIV-transmission events. The rate of transmission overall from ART-treated patients was 0.46 (95% CI 0.19-1.09) per 100 person-years, based on five events. The transmission rate from a seropositive partner with viral load below 400 copies/ml on ART, based on two studies, was zero with an upper 97.5% confidence limit of 1.27 per 100 person-years, and 0.16 (95% CI 0.02-1.13) per 100 person-years if not on ART, based on five studies and one event. There were insufficient data to calculate rates according to the presence or absence of sexually transmitted infections, condom use, or vaginal or anal intercourse. CONCLUSION: Studies of heterosexual discordant couples observed no transmission in patients treated with ART and with viral load below 400 copies/ml, but data were compatible with one transmission per 79 person-years. Further studies are needed to better define the risk of HIV transmission from patients on ART.

Impact of viral load and the duration of primary infection on HIV transmission

Abstract Objectives: HIV 'treatment as prevention' (TasP) describes early treatment of HIV-infected patients intended to reduce viral load and transmission. Crucial assumptions for estimating TasP's effectiveness are the underlying estimates of transmission risk. We aimed to determine transmission risk during primary infection, and of the relation of HIV transmission risk to viral load. Design: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We searched PubMed and Embase databases for studies that established a relationship between viral load and transmission risk, or primary infection and transmission risk, in serodiscordant couples. We analysed assumptions about the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and between duration of primary infection and transmission risk. Results: We found 36 eligible articles, based on six different study populations. Studies consistently found that larger viral loads lead to higher HIV transmission rates, but assumptions about the shape of this increase varied from exponential increase to saturation. The assumed duration of primary infection ranged from 1.5 to 12 months; for each additional month, the log10 transmission rate ratio between primary and asymptomatic infection decreased by 0.40. Conclusion: Assumptions and estimates of the relationship between viral load and transmission risk, and the relationship between primary infection and transmission risk, vary substantially and predictions of TasP's effectiveness should take this uncertainty into account.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

[Antiretroviral therapy and pregnancy]

Whereas the perinatal transmission rate with untreated HIV positive women is around 30%, the results of Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group in 1994 showed a reduction by nearly 70% with Zidovudin chemoprophylaxis. The transmission rate can even be reduced to under 2%, if a cesarean section before onset of labour and before premature rupture of membranes is done in addition. An individualized, optimal antiretroviral combination therapy, ideally introduced in the second trimenon (in special cases even already in the first trimenon), is of great importance. As a further strategy of prevention of perinatal transmission, intravenous Zidovudin chemoprophylaxis should be given in addition to the mother during labour and to the newborn during the first six weeks of life. Besides very few exceptions, long-term data after intrauterine administration of antiretroviral therapy do not show any teratogen or other long term consequences to date. The situation in developing countries is very critical with still high transmission rates because of the lack of antiretroviral therapy due to logistical reasons and costs and the need of breastfeeding. For these reasons, more and more feasible short protocols are developed with at least fifty percent reduction of neonatal transmission rates.

Antiretroviral therapy for prevention of HIV transmission in HIV-discordant couples

BACKGROUND Antiretroviral drugs have been shown to reduce risk of mother-to-child transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and are also widely used for post-exposure prophylaxis for parenteral and sexual exposures. Sexual transmission may be lower in couples in which one partner is infected with HIV and the other is not and the infected partner is on antiretroviral therapy (ART). OBJECTIVES To determine if ART use in an HIV-infected member of an HIV-discordant couple is associated with lower risk of HIV transmission to the uninfected partner compared to untreated discordant couples. SEARCH METHODS We used standard Cochrane methods to search electronic databases and conference proceedings with relevant search terms without limits to language. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCT), cohort studies and case-control studies of HIV-discordant couples in which the HIV-infected member of the couple was being treated or not treated with ART DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Abstracts of all trials identified by electronic or bibliographic scanning were examined independently by two authors. We initially identified 3,833 references and examined 87 in detail for study eligibility. Data were abstracted independently using a standardised abstraction form. MAIN RESULTS One RCT and nine observational studies were included in the review. These ten studies identified 2,112 episodes of HIV transmission, 1,016 among treated couples and 1,096 among untreated couples. The rate ratio for the single randomised controlled trial was 0.04 [95% CI 0.00, 0.27]. All index partners in this study had CD4 cell counts at baseline of 350-550 cells/µL. Similarly, the summary rate ratio for the nine observational studies was 0.58 [95% CI 0.35, 0.96], with substantial heterogeneity (I(2)=64%). After excluding two studies with inadequate person-time data, we estimated a summary rate ratio of 0.36 [95% CI 0.17, 0.75] with substantial heterogeneity (I(2)=62%). We also performed subgroup analyses among the observational studies to see if the effect of ART on prevention of HIV differed by the index partner's CD4 cell count. Among couples in which the infected partner had ≥350 CD4 cells/µL, we estimated a rate ratio of 0.12 [95% CI 0.01, 1.99]. In this subgroup, there were 247 transmissions in untreated couples and 30 in treated couples. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS ART is a potent intervention for prevention of HIV in discordant couples in which the index partner has ≤550 CD4 cells/µL. A recent multicentre RCT confirms the suspected benefit seen in earlier observational studies and reported in more recent ones. Questions remain about durability of protection, the balance of benefits and adverse events associated with earlier therapy, long-term adherence and transmission of ART-resistant strains to partners. Resource limitations and implementation challenges must also be addressed.Counselling, support, and follow up, as well as mutual disclosure, may have a role in supporting adherence, so programmes should be designed with these components. In addition to ART provision, the operational aspects of delivering such programmes must be considered.

Assessment of a robust opportunistic routing for video transmission in dynamic topologies

Mobile multimedia ad hoc services run on dynamic topologies due to node mobility or failures and wireless channel impairments. A robust routing service must adapt to topology changes with the aim of recovering or maintaining the video quality level and reducing the impact of the user's experience. In those scenarios, beacon-less Opportunistic Routing (OR) increases the robustness by supporting routing decisions in a completely distributed manner based on protocol-specific characteristics. However, the existing beacon-less OR approaches do not efficiently combine multiple metrics for forwarding selection, which cause higher packet loss rate, and consequently reduce the video quality level. In this paper, we assess the robustness and reliability of our recently developed OR protocol under node failures, called cross-layer Link quality and Geographical-aware OR protocol (LinGO). Simulation results show that LinGO achieves multimedia dissemination with QoE support and robustness in scenarios with dynamic topologies.

A Link Quality and Geographical-aware Routing Protocol for Video Transmission in Mobile IoT

Wireless mobile sensor networks are enlarging the Internet of Things (IoT) portfolio with a huge number of multimedia services for smart cities. Safety and environmental monitoring multimedia applications will be part of the Smart IoT systems, which aim to reduce emergency response time, while also predicting hazardous events. In these mobile and dynamic (possible disaster) scenarios, opportunistic routing allows routing decisions in a completely distributed manner, by using a hop- by-hop route decision based on protocol-specific characteristics, and a predefined end-to-end path is not a reliable solution. This enables the transmission of video flows of a monitored area/object with Quality of Experience (QoE) support to users, headquarters or IoT platforms. However, existing approaches rely on a single metric to make the candidate selection rule, including link quality or geographic information, which causes a high packet loss rate, and reduces the video perception from the human standpoint. This article proposes a cross-layer Link quality and Geographical-aware Opportunistic routing protocol (LinGO), which is designed for video dissemination in mobile multimedia IoT environments. LinGO improves routing decisions using multiple metrics, including link quality, geographic loca- tion, and energy. The simulation results show the benefits of LinGO compared with well-known routing solutions for video transmission with QoE support in mobile scenarios.

Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

High prevalence of herpes simplex virus (HSV)- type 2 co-infection among HIV-positive women in Ukraine, but no increased HIV mother-to-child transmission risk.

BACKGROUND Over 3500 HIV-positive women give birth annually in Ukraine, a setting with high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections. Herpes simplex virus Type 2 (HSV-2) co-infection may increase HIV mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) risk. We explored factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity among HIV-positive women in Ukraine, and its impact on HIV MTCT. METHODS Data on 1513 HIV-positive women enrolled in the Ukraine European Collaborative Study from 2007 to 2012 were analysed. Poisson and logistic regression models respectively were fit to investigate factors associated with HSV-2 seropositivity and HIV MTCT. RESULTS Median maternal age was 27 years (IQR 24-31), 53% (796/1513) had been diagnosed with HIV during their most recent pregnancy and 20% had a history of injecting drugs. Median antenatal CD4 count was 430 cells/mm(3) (IQR 290-580). Ninety-six percent had received antiretroviral therapy antenatally. HSV-2 seroprevalence was 68% (1026/1513). In adjusted analyses, factors associated with HSV-2 antibodies were history of pregnancy termination (APR 1.30 (95% CI 1.18-1.43) for ≥ 2 vs. 0), having an HIV-positive partner (APR 1.15 (95% CI 1.05-1.26) vs partner's HIV status unknown) and HCV seropositivity (APR 1.23 (95 % CI 1.13-1.35)). The overall HIV MTCT rate was 2.80% (95% CI 1.98-3.84); no increased HIV MTCT risk was detected among HSV-2 seropositive women after adjusting for known risk factors (AOR 1.43 (95% CI 0.54-3.77). CONCLUSION No increased risk of HIV MTCT was detected among the 68% of HIV-positive women with antibodies to HSV-2, in this population with an overall HIV MTCT rate of 2.8%. Markers of ongoing sexual risk among HIV-positive HSV-2 seronegative women indicate the importance of interventions to prevent primary HSV-2 infection during pregnancy in this high-risk group.

Sexual Activity Without Condoms and Risk of HIV Transmission in Serodifferent Couples When the HIV-Positive Partner Is Using Suppressive Antiretroviral Therapy

Importance A key factor in assessing the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as a prevention strategy is the absolute risk of HIV transmission through condomless sex with suppressed HIV-1 RNA viral load for both anal and vaginal sex. Objective To evaluate the rate of within-couple HIV transmission (heterosexual and men who have sex with men [MSM]) during periods of sex without condoms and when the HIV-positive partner had HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Design, Setting, and Participants The prospective, observational PARTNER (Partners of People on ART-A New Evaluation of the Risks) study was conducted at 75 clinical sites in 14 European countries and enrolled 1166 HIV serodifferent couples (HIV-positive partner taking suppressive ART) who reported condomless sex (September 2010 to May 2014). Eligibility criteria for inclusion of couple-years of follow-up were condomless sex and HIV-1 RNA load less than 200 copies/mL. Anonymized phylogenetic analysis compared couples' HIV-1 polymerase and envelope sequences if an HIV-negative partner became infected to determine phylogenetically linked transmissions. Exposures Condomless sexual activity with an HIV-positive partner taking virally suppressive ART. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of within-couple HIV transmission to the HIV-negative partner. Results Among 1166 enrolled couples, 888 (mean age, 42 years [IQR, 35-48]; 548 heterosexual [61.7%] and 340 MSM [38.3%]) provided 1238 eligible couple-years of follow-up (median follow-up, 1.3 years [IQR, 0.8-2.0]). At baseline, couples reported condomless sex for a median of 2 years (IQR, 0.5-6.3). Condomless sex with other partners was reported by 108 HIV-negative MSM (33%) and 21 heterosexuals (4%). During follow-up, couples reported condomless sex a median of 37 times per year (IQR, 15-71), with MSM couples reporting approximately 22 000 condomless sex acts and heterosexuals approximately 36 000. Although 11 HIV-negative partners became HIV-positive (10 MSM; 1 heterosexual; 8 reported condomless sex with other partners), no phylogenetically linked transmissions occurred over eligible couple-years of follow-up, giving a rate of within-couple HIV transmission of zero, with an upper 95% confidence limit of 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up. The upper 95% confidence limit for condomless anal sex was 0.71 per 100 couple-years of follow-up. Conclusions and Relevance Among serodifferent heterosexual and MSM couples in which the HIV-positive partner was using suppressive ART and who reported condomless sex, during median follow-up of 1.3 years per couple, there were no documented cases of within-couple HIV transmission (upper 95% confidence limit, 0.30/100 couple-years of follow-up). Additional longer-term follow-up is necessary to provide more precise estimates of risk.