Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone

We investigate the effects of a recently proposed 21st century Dalton minimum like decline of solar activity on the evolution of Earth's climate and ozone layer. Three sets of two member ensemble simulations, radiatively forced by a midlevel emission scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change RCP4.5), are performed with the atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model AOCCM SOCOL3-MPIOM, one with constant solar activity, the other two with reduced solar activity and different strength of the solar irradiance forcing. A future grand solar minimum will reduce the global mean surface warming of 2 K between 1986–2005 and 2081–2100 by 0.2 to 0.3 K. Furthermore, the decrease in solar UV radiation leads to a significant delay of stratospheric ozone recovery by 10 years and longer. Therefore, the effects of a solar activity minimum, should it occur, may interfere with international efforts for the protection of global climate and the ozone layer.

Impact of solar versus volcanic activity variations on tropospheric temperatures and precipitation during the Dalton Minimum

The aim of this work is to elucidate the impact of changes in solar irradiance and energetic particles versus volcanic eruptions on tropospheric global climate during the Dalton Minimum (DM, AD 1780–1840). Separate variations in the (i) solar irradiance in the UV-C with wavelengths λ < 250 nm, (ii) irradiance at wavelengths λ > 250 nm, (iii) in energetic particle spectrum, and (iv) volcanic aerosol forcing were analyzed separately, and (v) in combination, by means of small ensemble calculations using a coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry–climate model. Global and hemispheric mean surface temperatures show a significant dependence on solar irradiance at λ > 250 nm. Also, powerful volcanic eruptions in 1809, 1815, 1831 and 1835 significantly decreased global mean temperature by up to 0.5 K for 2–3 years after the eruption. However, while the volcanic effect is clearly discernible in the Southern Hemispheric mean temperature, it is less significant in the Northern Hemisphere, partly because the two largest volcanic eruptions occurred in the SH tropics and during seasons when the aerosols were mainly transported southward, partly because of the higher northern internal variability. In the simulation including all forcings, temperatures are in reasonable agreement with the tree ring-based temperature anomalies of the Northern Hemisphere. Interestingly, the model suggests that solar irradiance changes at λ < 250 nm and in energetic particle spectra have only an insignificant impact on the climate during the Dalton Minimum. This downscales the importance of top–down processes (stemming from changes at λ < 250 nm) relative to bottom–up processes (from λ > 250 nm). Reduction of irradiance at λ > 250 nm leads to a significant (up to 2%) decrease in the ocean heat content (OHC) between 0 and 300 m in depth, whereas the changes in irradiance at λ < 250 nm or in energetic particles have virtually no effect. Also, volcanic aerosol yields a very strong response, reducing the OHC of the upper ocean by up to 1.5%. In the simulation with all forcings, the OHC of the uppermost levels recovers after 8–15 years after volcanic eruption, while the solar signal and the different volcanic eruptions dominate the OHC changes in the deeper ocean and prevent its recovery during the DM. Finally, the simulations suggest that the volcanic eruptions during the DM had a significant impact on the precipitation patterns caused by a widening of the Hadley cell and a shift in the intertropical convergence zone.

Understanding measured water rotational temperatures and column densities in the very innermost coma of Comet 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3 B

Direct sublimation of a comet nucleus surface is usually considered to be the main source of gas in the coma of a comet. However, evidence from a number of comets including the recent spectacular images of Comet 103P/Hartley 2 by the EPOXI mission indicates that the nucleus alone may not be responsible for all, or possibly at times even most, of the total amount of gas seen in the coma. Indeed, the sublimation of icy grains, which have been injected into the coma, appears to constitute an important source. We use the fully-kinetic Direct Simulation Monte Carlo model of Tenishev et al. (Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Davidsson, B. [2008]. Astrophys. J., 685, 659−677; Tenishev, V.M., Combi, M.R., Rubin, M. [2011]. Astrophys. J., 732) to reproduce the measurements of column density and rotational temperature of water in Comet 73P-B/Schwassmann–Wachmann 3 obtained with a very high spatial resolution of ∼30 km using IRCS/Subaru in May 2006 (Bonev, B.P., Mumma, M.J., Kawakita, H., Kobayashi, H., Villanueva, G.L. [2008]. Icarus, 196, 241−248). For gas released solely from the cometary nucleus at a heliocentric distance of 1 AU, modeled rotational temperatures start at 110 K close to the surface and decrease to only several tens of degrees by 10–20 nucleus radii. However, the measured decay of both rotational temperature and column density with distance from the nucleus is much slower than predicted by this simple model. The addition of a substantial (distributed) source of gas from icy grains in the model slows the decay in rotational temperature and provides a more gradual drop in column density profiles. Together with a contribution of rotational heating of water molecules by electrons, the combined effects allow a much better match to the IRCS/Subaru observations. From the spatial distributions of water abundance and temperature measured in 73P/SW3-B, we have identified and quantified multiple mechanisms of release. The application of this tool to other comets may permit such studies over a range of heliocentric and geocentric distances.

Cool Glacial Temperatures and Changes in Moisture Source Recorded in Oman Groundwaters

Concentrations of atmospheric noble gases (neon, argon, krypton, and xenon) dissolved in groundwaters from northern Oman indicate that the average ground temperature during the Late Pleistocene (15,000 to 24,000 years before present) was 6.5° ± 0.6°C lower than that of today. Stable oxygen and hydrogen isotopic groundwater data show that the origin of atmospheric water vapor changed from a primarily southern, Indian Ocean source during the Late Pleistocene to a dominantly northern, Mediterranean source today. The reduced northern water vapor source is consistent with a drier Last Glacial Maximum through much of northern Africa and Arabia.

In situ cardiac performance of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) at cold temperatures: long-term acclimation, acute thermal challenge and the role of adrenaline

The resting and maximum in situ cardiac performance of Newfoundland Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) acclimated to 10, 4 and 0°C were measured at their respective acclimation temperatures, and when acutely exposed to temperature changes: i.e. hearts from 10°C fish cooled to 4°C, and hearts from 4°C fish measured at 10 and 0°C. Intrinsic heart rate (f(H)) decreased from 41 beats min(-1) at 10°C to 33 beats min(-1) at 4°C and 25 beats min(-1) at 0°C. However, this degree of thermal dependency was not reflected in maximal cardiac output (Q(max) values were ~44, ~37 and ~34 ml min(-1) kg(-1) at 10, 4 and 0°C, respectively). Further, cardiac scope showed a slight positive compensation between 4 and 0°C (Q(10)=1.7), and full, if not a slight over compensation between 10 and 4°C (Q(10)=0.9). The maximal performance of hearts exposed to an acute decrease in temperature (i.e. from 10 to 4°C and 4 to 0°C) was comparable to that measured for hearts from 4°C- and 0°C-acclimated fish, respectively. In contrast, 4°C-acclimated hearts significantly out-performed 10°C-acclimated hearts when tested at a common temperature of 10°C (in terms of both Q(max) and power output). Only minimal differences in cardiac function were seen between hearts stimulated with basal (5 nmol l(-1)) versus maximal (200 nmol l(-1)) levels of adrenaline, the effects of which were not temperature dependent. These results: (1) show that maximum performance of the isolated cod heart is not compromised by exposure to cold temperatures; and (2) support data from other studies, which show that, in contrast to salmonids, cod cardiac performance/myocardial contractility is not dependent upon humoral adrenergic stimulation.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Farming Systems and Resilience Building in a Changing Climate On-Farm Comparisons of Organic and Conventional Cocoa Cultivation in Alto Beni, Bolivia

Resilience research has been applied to socioeconomic as well as for agroecological studies in the last 20 years. It provides a conceptual and methodological approach for a better understanding of interrelations between the performance of ecological and social systems. In the research area Alto Beni, Bolivia, the production of cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), is one of the main sources of income. Farmers in the region have formed producers’ associations to enhance organic cocoa cultivation and obtain fair prices since the 1980s. In cooperation with the long-term system comparisons by the Research Institute of Organic Agriculture (FiBL) in Alto Beni, aspects of the field trial are applied for the use in on-farm research: a comparison of soil fertility, biomass and crop diversity is combined with qualitative interviews and participatory observation methods. Fieldwork is carried out together with Bolivian students through the Swiss KFPE-programme Echanges Universitaires. For the system comparisons, four different land-use types were classified according to their ecological complexity during a preliminary study in 2009: successional agroforestry systems, simple agroforestry systems (both organically managed and certified), traditional systems and conventional monocultures. The study focuses on interrelations between different ways of cocoa cultivation, livelihoods and the related socio-cultural rationales behind them. In particular this second aspect is innovative as it allows to broaden the biophysical perspective to a more comprehensive evaluation with socio-ecological aspects thereby increasing the relevance of the agronomic field studies for development policy and practice. Moreover, such a socio-ecological baseline allows to assess the potential of organic agriculture regarding resilience-building face to socio-environmental stress factors. Among others, the results of the pre-study illustrate local farmers’ perceptions of climate change and the consequences for the different crop-systems: all interviewees mentioned rising temperatures and/or an extended dry season as negative impacts more with regard to their own working conditions than to their crops. This was the case in particular for conventional monocultures and in plots where slash-and-burn cultivation was practised whereas for organic agroforestry systems the advantage of working in the shade was stressed indicating that their relevance rises in the context of climate change.

The impact of different glacial boundary conditions on atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in the North Atlantic region

Using a highly resolved atmospheric general circulation model, the impact of different glacial boundary conditions on precipitation and atmospheric dynamics in the North Atlantic region is investigated. Six 30-yr time slice experiments of the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 thousand years before the present (ka BP) and of a less pronounced glacial state – the Middle Weichselian (65 ka BP) – are compared to analyse the sensitivity to changes in the ice sheet distribution, in the radiative forcing and in the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperature and sea ice, which are taken from a lower-resolved, but fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The strongest differences are found for simulations with different heights of the Laurentide ice sheet. A high surface elevation of the Laurentide ice sheet leads to a southward displacement of the jet stream and the storm track in the North Atlantic region. These changes in the atmospheric dynamics generate a band of increased precipitation in the mid-latitudes across the Atlantic to southern Europe in winter, while the precipitation pattern in summer is only marginally affected. The impact of the radiative forcing differences between the two glacial periods and of the prescribed time-varying sea surface temperatures and sea ice are of second order importance compared to the one of the Laurentide ice sheet. They affect the atmospheric dynamics and precipitation in a similar but less pronounced manner compared with the topographic changes.

Impact of weather and climate on the incidence of acute coronary syndromes

BACKGROUND: First investigations of the interactions between weather and the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions date back to 1938. The early observation of a higher incidence of myocardial infarctions in the cold season could be confirmed in very different geographical regions and cohorts. While the influence of seasonal variations on the incidence of myocardial infarctions has been extensively documented, the impact of individual meteorological parameters on the disease has so far not been investigated systematically. Hence the present study intended to assess the impact of the essential variables of weather and climate on the incidence of myocardial infarctions. METHODS: The daily incidence of myocardial infarctions was calculated from a national hospitalization survey. The hourly weather and climate data were provided by the database of the national weather forecast. The epidemiological and meteorological data were correlated by multivariate analysis based on a generalized linear model assuming a log-link-function and a Poisson distribution. RESULTS: High ambient pressure, high pressure gradients, and heavy wind activity were associated with an increase in the incidence of the totally 6560 hospitalizations for myocardial infarction irrespective of the geographical region. Snow- and rainfall had inconsistent effects. Temperature, Foehn, and lightning showed no statistically significant impact. CONCLUSIONS: Ambient pressure, pressure gradient, and wind activity had a statistical impact on the incidence of myocardial infarctions in Switzerland from 1990 to 1994. To establish a cause-and-effect relationship more data are needed on the interaction between the pathophysiological mechanisms of the acute coronary syndrome and weather and climate variables.