19 resultados para Quasi-Natural Experiment
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
This paper describes the results of a unique "natural experiment" of the operation and cessation of a broadcast transmitter with its short-wave electromagnetic fields (6-22 MHz) on sleep quality and melatonin cycle in a general human population sample. In 1998, 54 volunteers (21 men, 33 women) were followed for 1 week each before and after shut-down of the short-wave radio transmitter at Schwarzenburg (Switzerland). Salivary melatonin was sampled five times a day and total daily excretion and acrophase were estimated using complex cosinor analysis. Sleep quality was recorded daily using a visual analogue scale. Before shut down, self-rated sleep quality was reduced by 3.9 units (95% CI: 1.7-6.0) per mA/m increase in magnetic field exposure. The corresponding decrease in melatonin excretion was 10% (95% CI: -32 to 20%). After shutdown, sleep quality improved by 1.7 units (95% CI: 0.1-3.4) per mA/m decrease in magnetic field exposure. Melatonin excretion increased by 15% (95% CI: -3 to 36%) compared to baseline values suggesting a rebound effect. Stratified analyses showed an exposure effect on melatonin excretion in poor sleepers (26% increase; 95% CI: 8-47%) but not in good sleepers. Change in sleep quality and melatonin excretion was related to the extent of magnetic field reduction after the transmitter's shut down in poor but not good sleepers. However, blinding of exposure was not possible in this observational study and this may have affected the outcome measurements in a direct or indirect (psychological) way.
Resumo:
Aim: We investigate the response of vegetation composition and plant diversity to increasing land clearance, burning and agriculture at the Mesolithic–Neolithic transition (c. 6400–5000 bc) when first farming was introduced. Location: The Valais, a dry alpine valley in Switzerland. Methods: We combine high-resolution pollen, microscopic charcoal and sedimentological data to reconstruct past vegetation, fire and land use. Pollen evenness, rarefaction-based and accumulation-based palynological richness analyses were used to reconstruct past trends in plant diversity. Results: Our results show that from c. 5500 cal. yr bc, slash-and-burn activities created a more open landscape for agriculture, at the expense of Pinus and Betula forests. Land clearance by slash-and-burn promoted diverse grassland ecosystems, while on the long term it reduced woodland and forest diversity, affecting important tree species such as Ulmus and Tilia. Main conclusions: Understanding the resilience of Alpine ecosystems to past disturbance variability is relevant for future nature conservation plans. Our study suggests that forecasted land abandonment in the Alps will lead to pre-Neolithic conditions, with significant biodiversity losses in abandoned grassland ecosystems. Thus, management measures for biodiversity, such as ecological compensation areas, are needed in agricultural landscapes with a millennial history of human impact, such as the non-boreal European lowlands. Our study supports the hypothesis that species coexistence is maximized at an intermediate level of disturbances. For instance, species richness decreased when fire exceeded the quasi-natural variability observed during the Mesolithic times. Under a more natural disturbance regime, rather closed Pinus sylvestris and mixed oak forests would prevail.
Resumo:
Old captains at the helm: Chairman age and firm performance Urs Waelchli and Jonas Zeller December, 2012 This paper examines whether the chairmen of the board (COBs) impose their life-cycles on the firms over which they preside. Using a large sample of unlisted firms we find a robust negative relation between COB age and firm performance. COBs age much like ‘ordinary’ people. Their cognitive abilities deteriorate and they experience significant shifts in motivation. Deteriorating cognitive abilities are the main driver of the performance effect that we observe. The results imply that succession planning problems in unlisted firms are real. Mandatory retirement age clauses cannot solve these problems. Corporate Aging around the World Jonas Zeller January, 2014 This paper examines whether firms internationally age as US firms do (Loderer, Stulz, and Wälchli, 2013). Using a large panel, I find that Tobin’s Q monotonically falls with firm Age across all nineteen countries in the sample. The decrease varies across countries but is generally extremely robust and economically significant. ROA, sales growth, and market share decrease over a firm’s lifetime in most countries as well. Furthermore, older firms reduce their capital expenditures and R&D outlays. Instead, they distribute more cash to their shareholders. Overall, the results suggest that corporate aging is not confined to the US but is a genuine phenomenon that affects listed firms worldwide. This evidence supports the hypothesis that corporate aging is driven by managers who optimally focus on managing their assets in place and neglect the development of growth opportunities. I finally ask whether the managers’ choice and with it the magnitude of the decline in Tobin’s Q is a function of country-level institutional settings. I find that most notably firms age faster in countries where employees are relatively well protected by labor regulation. Is employment protection the fountain of corporate youth? Claudio Loderer, Urs Wälchli, Jonas Zeller* September 2014 Acharya, Baghai, and Subramanian (2012, 2013) find that employment protection legislation (EPL) encourages innovation. We argue that this effect should be particularly strong in mature firms. We would therefore also expect EPL to boost growth opportunities. Using the natural Experiment created by the staggered passage of changes in EPL across seventeen countries, we find evidence that employment protection legislation does indeed stimulate Innovation efforts, especially in mature firms. The effect is stronger in countries in which patents are owned by the firm and in the context of regular contracts. Consistent with that, EPL encourages risk taking. Overall, however, there is Little evidence that the effect of EPL on innovation effort translates into higher firm value, not even in mature firms. EPL does motivate employees in those firms to put in a greater effort, as evidenced by stronger sales growth. Yet it also increases costs, reduces profitability, and depresses Tobin’s Q ratios in all firms, especially the mature ones, possibly because of the rigidities that characterize these firms [Loderer, Stulz, and Waelchli (2014)].
Resumo:
Knowledge about vegetation and fire history of the mountains of Northern Sicily is scanty. We analysed five sites to fill this gap and used terrestrial plant macrofossils to establish robust radiocarbon chronologies. Palynological records from Gorgo Tondo, Gorgo Lungo, Marcato Cixé, Urgo Pietra Giordano and Gorgo Pollicino show that under natural or near natural conditions, deciduous forests (Quercus pubescens, Q. cerris, Fraxinus ornus, Ulmus), that included a substantial portion of evergreen broadleaved species (Q. suber, Q. ilex, Hedera helix), prevailed in the upper meso-mediterranean belt. Mesophilous deciduous and evergreen broadleaved trees (Fagus sylvatica, Ilex aquifolium) dominated in the natural or quasi-natural forests of the oro-mediterranean belt. Forests were repeatedly opened for agricultural purposes. Fire activity was closely associated with farming, providing evidence that burning was a primary land use tool since Neolithic times. Land use and fire activity intensified during the Early Neolithic at 5000 bc, at the onset of the Bronze Age at 2500 bc and at the onset of the Iron Age at 800 bc. Our data and previous studies suggest that the large majority of open land communities in Sicily, from the coastal lowlands to the mountain areas below the thorny-cushion Astragalus belt (ca. 1,800 m a.s.l.), would rapidly develop into forests if land use ceased. Mesophilous Fagus-Ilex forests developed under warm mid Holocene conditions and were resilient to the combined impacts of humans and climate. The past ecology suggests a resilience of these summer-drought adapted communities to climate warming of about 2 °C. Hence, they may be particularly suited to provide heat and drought-adapted Fagus sylvatica ecotypes for maintaining drought-sensitive Central European beech forests under global warming conditions.
Resumo:
We address ethical consumption using a natural field experiment on the actual purchase of Fair Trade (FT) coffee in three supermarkets in Germany. Based on a quasi-experimental before-and-after design the effects of three different treatments – information, 20% price reduction, and a moral appeal – are analyzed. Sales data cover actual ethical purchase behavior and avoid problems of social desirability. But they offer only limited insights into the motivations of individual consumers. We therefore complemented the field experiment with a customer survey that allows us to contrast observed (ethical) buying behavior with self-reported FT consumption. Results from the experiment suggest that only the price reduction had the expected positive and statistically significant effect on FT consumption.
Resumo:
High altitude constitutes an exciting natural laboratory for medical research. Over the past decade, it has become clear that the results of high-altitude research may have important implications not only for the understanding of diseases in the millions of people living permanently at high altitude, but also for the treatment of hypoxemia-related disease states in patients living at low altitude. High-altitude pulmonary edema (HAPE) is a life-threatening condition occurring in predisposed, but otherwise healthy subjects, and, therefore, allows to study underlying mechanisms of pulmonary edema in humans, in the absence of confounding factors. Over the past decade, evidence has accumulated that HAPE results from the conjunction of two major defects, augmented alveolar fluid flooding resulting from exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary hypertension, and impaired alveolar fluid clearance related to defective respiratory transepithelial sodium transport. Here, after a brief presentation of the clinical features of HAPE, we review this novel concept. We provide experimental evidence for the novel concept that impaired pulmonary endothelial and epithelial nitric oxide synthesis and/or bioavailability may represent the central underlying defect predisposing to exaggerated hypoxic pulmonary vasoconstriction and alveolar fluid flooding. We demonstrate that exaggerated pulmonary hypertension, while possibly a condition sine qua non, may not be sufficient to cause HAPE, and how defective alveolar fluid clearance may represent a second important pathogenic mechanism. Finally, we outline how this insight gained from studies in HAPE may be translated into the management of hypoxemia related disease states in general.
Resumo:
The majority of plant species rely, at least partly, on animals for pollination. Our knowledge on whether pollinator visitation differs between native and alien plant species, and between invasive and non-invasive alien species is still limited. Additionally, because numerous invasive plant species are escapees from horticulture, the transition from human-assisted occurrence in urbanized habitats to unassisted persistence and spread in (semi-)natural habitats requires study. To address whether pollinator visitation differs between native, invasive alien and non-invasive alien species, we did pollinator observations for a total of 17 plant species representing five plant families. To test whether pollinator visitation to the three groups of species during the initial stage of invasion depends on habitat type, we did the study in three urbanized habitats and three semi-natural grasslands, using single potted plants. Native plants had more but smaller flower units than alien plants, and invasive alien plants had more but smaller flowers than non-invasive alien plants. After accounting for these differences in floral display, pollinator visitation was higher for native than for alien plant species, but did not differ between invasive and non-invasive alien plant species. Pollinator visitation was on average higher in semi-natural than in urbanized habitats, irrespective of origin or status of the plant species. This might suggest that once an alien species has managed to escape from urbanized into more natural habitats, pollinator limitation will not be a major barrier to establishment and invasion.
Resumo:
In this article, we develop the a priori and a posteriori error analysis of hp-version interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for strongly monotone quasi-Newtonian fluid flows in a bounded Lipschitz domain Ω ⊂ ℝd, d = 2, 3. In the latter case, computable upper and lower bounds on the error are derived in terms of a natural energy norm, which are explicit in the local mesh size and local polynomial degree of the approximating finite element method. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed a posteriori error indicators within an automatic hp-adaptive refinement algorithm.
Resumo:
Animal pollination is essential for the reproductive success of many wild and crop plants. Loss and isolation of (semi-)natural habitats in agricultural landscapes can cause declines of plants and pollinators and endanger pollination services.We investigated the independent effects of these drivers on pollination of young cherry trees in a landscape-scale experiment. We included (i) isolation of study trees from other cherry trees (up to 350 m), (ii) the amount of cherry trees in the landscape, (iii) the isolation from other woody habitats (up to 200 m) and (iv) the amount of woody habitats providing nesting and floral resources for pollinators. At the local scale, we considered effects of (v) cherry flower density and (vi) heterospecific flower density. Pollinators visited flowers more often in landscapes with high amount of woody habitat and at sites with lower isolation from the next cherry tree. Fruit set was reduced by isolation from the next cherry tree and by a high local density of heterospecific flowers but did not directly depend on pollinator visitation. These results reveal the importance of considering the plant’s need for con-specific pollen and its pollen competition with co-flowering species rather than focusing only on pollinators’ habitat requirements and flower visita-tion. It proved to be important to disentangle habitat isolation from habitat loss, local from landscape-scale effects, and direct effects of pollen availability on fruit set from indirect effects via pollinator visitation to understand the delivery of an agriculturally important ecosystem service.