A "Beyond WTO" Scenario for Swiss Agriculture: Consequences for Income Generation and the Provision of Public Goods

The conclusion of the Doha Round negotiations is likely to influence Swiss agricultural policy substantially. The same goes for a free trade agreement in agriculture and food with the European Communities. Even though neither of them will bring about duty-free and quota-free market access, or restrict domestic support measures to green box compatible support, both would represent a big step in that direction. There is no empirical evidence on the effect of such a counterfactual scenario for Swiss agriculture. We therefore use a normative mathematical programming model to illustrate possible effects for agricultural production and the corresponding agricultural income. Moreover, we discuss the results with respect to the provision of public goods under the assumption of continuing green box-compatible direct payments. The aim of our article is to bring more transparency into the discussion on the effects of freer and less distorted trade on the income generation by a multifunctional agriculture. The article will be organized as follows. In the first Section we specify the background of our study. In the second section, we focus on the problem statement and our research questions. In Section 3, we describe in detail a counterfactual scenario of “duty-free, quota-free and price support-free” agriculture from an economic as well as a legal perspective. Our methodology and the results are presented in Section 4 and 5 respectively. In Section 6, we discuss our results with respect to economic and legal aspects of multifunctional agriculture.

Survey of public knowledge about Echinococcus multilocularis in four European countries: Need for proactive information

Background Public information about prevention of zoonoses should be based on the perceived problem by the public and should be adapted to regional circumstances. Growing fox populations have led to increasing concern about human alveolar echinococcosis, which is caused by the fox tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis. In order to plan information campaigns, public knowledge about this zoonotic tapeworm was assessed. Methods By means of representative telephone interviews (N = 2041), a survey of public knowledge about the risk and the prevention of alveolar echinococcosis was carried out in the Czech Republic, France, Germany and Switzerland in 2004. Results For all five questions, significant country-specific differences were found. Fewer people had heard of E. multilocularis in the Czech Republic (14%) and France (18%) compared to Germany (63%) and Switzerland (70%). The same effect has been observed when only high endemic regions were considered (Czech Republic: 20%, France: 17%, Germany: 77%, Switzerland: 61%). In France 17% of people who knew the parasite felt themselves reasonably informed. In the other countries, the majority felt themselves reasonably informed (54–60%). The percentage that perceived E. multilocularis as a high risk ranged from 12% (Switzerland) to 43% (France). In some countries promising measures as deworming dogs (Czech Republic, Switzerland) were not recognized as prevention options. Conclusion Our results and the actual epidemiological circumstances of AE call for proactive information programs. This communication should enable the public to achieve realistic risk perception, give clear information on how people can minimize their infection risk, and prevent exaggerated reactions and anxiety.

Long-run performance of initial public offerings: The evidence for Switzerland

We estimate the underpricing and long-run performance of Swiss initial public offerings (IPOs) from 1983 to 2000. The average market adjusted initial return is 34.97%. To examine the long-run performance of Swiss IPOs, we compute buy-and-hold abnormal returns, skewness-adjusted wealth ratios, and cumulative abnormal returns using 120 months of secondary market returns. In contrast to previous findings for the U.S. and Germany, we do not find strong evidence for a distinct IPO effect. We attribute long-run underperformance to the fact that IPO firms tend to be small firms. It virtually vanishes when we use a small capitalization index as a benchmark. In spite of distinct economic implications and statistical properties, our basic results are similar for all performance measures applied.

Public health risks of enterobacterial isolates producing extended-spectrum β-lactamases or AmpC β-lactamases in food and food-producing animals: an EU perspective of epidemiology, analytical methods, risk factors, and control options

The blaESBL and blaAmpC genes in Enterobacteriaceae are spread by plasmid-mediated integrons, insertion sequences, and transposons, some of which are homologous in bacteria from food animals, foods, and humans. These genes have been frequently identified in Escherichia coli and Salmonella from food animals, the most common being blaCTX-M-1, blaCTX-M-14, and blaCMY-2. Identification of risk factors for their occurrence in food animals is complex. In addition to generic antimicrobial use, cephalosporin usage is an important risk factor for selection and spread of these genes. Extensive international trade of animals is a further risk factor. There are no data on the effectiveness of individual control options in reducing public health risks. A highly effective option would be to stop or restrict cephalosporin usage in food animals. Decreasing total antimicrobial use is also of high priority. Implementation of measures to limit strain dissemination (increasing farm biosecurity, controls in animal trade, and other general postharvest controls) are also important.

Legal Implications of the Use of Export Taxes in Addressing Carbon Leakage: Competing Border Adjustment Measures

The prevailing uncertainties about the future of the post-Kyoto international legal framework for climate mitigation and adaptation increase the likelihood of unilateral trade interventions that aim to address climate policy concerns, as exemplified by the controversial European Union initiative to include the aviation industry in its emissions trading system. The emerging literature suggests that border carbon adjustment (BCA) measures imposed by importing countries would lead to substantial legal complications in relation to World Trade Organization law and hence to possible trade disputes. Lack of legal clarity on BCAs is exacerbated by potential counter or pre-emptive export restrictions that exporting countries might impose on carbon-intensive products. In this context, this paper investigates the interface between legal and welfare implications of competing unilateral BCA measures. It argues that carbon export taxes will be an inevitable part of the future climate change regime in the absence of a multilateral agreement. It also describes the channels through which competing BCAs may lead to trade conflicts and political complications as a result of their distributional and welfare impacts at the domestic and global levels.

Threat of alveolar echinococcosis to public health - a challenge for Europe

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) is a neglected 'malignant' parasitic disease. The European endemic area of Echinococcus multilocularis in foxes is larger than previously anticipated, and there is new evidence that both fox populations and the prevalence of E. multilocularis have increased in many areas, indicating increased pressure for infection with E. multilocularis eggs in intermediate and accidental hosts, including humans. This may result in more human AE cases within the next decades. Current numbers of both immunocompetent and immunocompromised AE patients, and the anticipated future increase, call for scaling-up research to rapidly improve the development and implementation of prevention measures, early diagnosis, and curative treatment of human AE.

Completeness of Follow-Up Determines Validity of Study Findings: Results of a Prospective Repeated Measures Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND Current reporting guidelines do not call for standardised declaration of follow-up completeness, although study validity depends on the representativeness of measured outcomes. The Follow-Up Index (FUI) describes follow-up completeness at a given study end date as ratio between the investigated and the potential follow-up period. The association between FUI and the accuracy of survival-estimates was investigated. METHODS FUI and Kaplan-Meier estimates were calculated twice for 1207 consecutive patients undergoing aortic repair during an 11-year period: in a scenario A the population's clinical routine follow-up data (available from a prospective registry) was analysed conventionally. For the control scenario B, an independent survey was completed at the predefined study end. To determine the relation between FUI and the accuracy of study findings, discrepancies between scenarios regarding FUI, follow-up duration and cumulative survival-estimates were evaluated using multivariate analyses. RESULTS Scenario A noted 89 deaths (7.4%) during a mean considered follow-up of 30±28months. Scenario B, although analysing the same study period, detected 304 deaths (25.2%, P<0.001) as it scrutinized the complete follow-up period (49±32months). FUI (0.57±0.35 versus 1.00±0, P<0.001) and cumulative survival estimates (78.7% versus 50.7%, P<0.001) differed significantly between scenarios, suggesting that incomplete follow-up information led to underestimation of mortality. Degree of follow-up completeness (i.e. FUI-quartiles and FUI-intervals) correlated directly with accuracy of study findings: underestimation of long-term mortality increased almost linearly by 30% with every 0.1 drop in FUI (adjusted HR 1.30; 95%-CI 1.24;1.36, P<0.001). CONCLUSION Follow-up completeness is a pre-requisite for reliable outcome assessment and should be declared systematically. FUI represents a simple measure suited as reporting standard. Evidence lacking such information must be challenged as potentially flawed by selection bias.

Expert Opinion on the Perceived Effectiveness and Importance of On-Farm Biosecurity Measures for Cattle and Swine Farms in Switzerland.

Biosecurity is crucial for safeguarding livestock from infectious diseases. Despite the plethora of biosecurity recommendations, published scientific evidence on the effectiveness of individual biosecurity measures is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the perception of Swiss experts about the effectiveness and importance of individual on-farm biosecurity measures for cattle and swine farms (31 and 30 measures, respectively). Using a modified Delphi method, 16 Swiss livestock disease specialists (8 for each species) were interviewed. The experts were asked to rank biosecurity measures that were written on cards, by allocating a score from 0 (lowest) to 5 (highest). Experts ranked biosecurity measures based on their importance related to Swiss legislation, feasibility, as well as the effort required for implementation and the benefit of each biosecurity measure. The experts also ranked biosecurity measures based on their effectiveness in preventing an infectious agent from entering and spreading on a farm, solely based on transmission characteristics of specific pathogens. The pathogens considered by cattle experts were those causing Bluetongue (BT), Bovine Viral Diarrhea (BVD), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Swine experts expressed their opinion on the pathogens causing African Swine Fever (ASF), Enzootic Pneumonia (EP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), as well as FMD. For cattle farms, biosecurity measures that improve disease awareness of farmers were ranked as both most important and most effective. For swine farms, the most important and effective measures identified were those related to animal movements. Among all single measures evaluated, education of farmers was perceived by the experts to be the most important and effective for protecting both Swiss cattle and swine farms from disease. The findings of this study provide an important basis for recommendation to farmers and policy makers.

Effect of Cage-Induced Stereotypies on Measures of Affective State and Recurrent Perseveration in CD-1 and C57BL/6 Mice.

Stereotypies are abnormal repetitive behaviour patterns that are highly prevalent in laboratory mice and are thought to reflect impaired welfare. Thus, they are associated with impaired behavioural inhibition and may also reflect negative affective states. However, in mice the relationship between stereotypies and behavioural inhibition is inconclusive, and reliable measures of affective valence are lacking. Here we used an exploration based task to assess cognitive bias as a measure of affective valence and a two-choice guessing task to assess recurrent perseveration as a measure of impaired behavioural inhibition to test mice with different forms and expression levels of stereotypic behaviour. We trained 44 CD- 1 and 40 C57BL/6 female mice to discriminate between positively and negatively cued arms in a radial maze and tested their responses to previously inaccessible ambiguous arms. In CD-1 mice (i) mice with higher stereotypy levels displayed a negative cognitive bias and this was influenced by the form of stereotypy performed, (ii) negative cognitive bias was evident in back-flipping mice, and (iii) no such effect was found in mice displaying bar-mouthing or cage-top twirling. In C57BL/6 mice neither route-tracing nor bar-mouthing was associated with cognitive bias, indicating that in this strain these stereotypies may not reflect negative affective states. Conversely, while we found no relation of stereotypy to recurrent perseveration in CD-1 mice, C57BL/6 mice with higher levels of route-tracing, but not bar-mouthing made more repetitive responses in the guessing task. Our findings confirm previous research indicating that the implications of stereotypies for animal welfare may strongly depend on the species and strain of animal as well as on the form and expression level of the stereotypy. Furthermore, they indicate that variation in stereotypic behaviour may represent an important source of variation in many animal experiments.