Occurrence, finger printing and ecological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Chenab River, Pakistan

Seventeen polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were studied in surface waters (including particulate phase) from the Chenab River, Pakistan and ranged from 289-994 and 437-1290 ng l-1 in summer and winter (2007-09), respectively. Concentrations for different ring-number PAHs followed the trend: 3-rings > 2-rings > 4-rings > 5-rings > 6-rings. The possible sources of PAHs are identified by calculating the indicative ratios; appropriating petrogenic sources of PAHs in urban and sub-urban regions with pyrogenic sources in agricultural region. Factor analysis based on principal component analysis identified the origins of PAHs from industrial activities, coal and trash burning in agricultural areas and municipal waste disposal from surrounding urban and sub-urban areas via open drains into the riverine ecosystem. Water quality guidelines and toxic equivalent factors highlighted the potential risk of low molecular weight PAHs to the aquatic life of the Chenab River. The flux estimated for PAHs contaminants from the Chenab River to the Indus River was >50 tons/year.

Human and ecological risk assessment of a crop protection chemical: a case study with the azole fungicide epoxiconazole.

Conventional risk assessments for crop protection chemicals compare the potential for causing toxicity (hazard identification) to anticipated exposure. New regulatory approaches have been proposed that would exclude exposure assessment and just focus on hazard identification based on endocrine disruption. This review comprises a critical analysis of hazard, focusing on the relative sensitivity of endocrine and non-endocrine endpoints, using a class of crop protection chemicals, the azole fungicides. These were selected because they are widely used on important crops (e.g. grains) and thereby can contact target and non-target plants and enter the food chain of humans and wildlife. Inhibition of lanosterol 14α-demethylase (CYP51) mediates the antifungal effect. Inhibition of other CYPs, such as aromatase (CYP19), can lead to numerous toxicological effects, which are also evident from high dose human exposures to therapeutic azoles. Because of its widespread use and substantial database, epoxiconazole was selected as a representative azole fungicide. Our critical analysis concluded that anticipated human exposure to epoxiconazole would yield a margin of safety of at least three orders of magnitude for reproductive effects observed in laboratory rodent studies that are postulated to be endocrine-driven (i.e. fetal resorptions). The most sensitive ecological species is the aquatic plant Lemna (duckweed), for which the margin of safety is less protective than for human health. For humans and wildlife, endocrine disruption is not the most sensitive endpoint. It is concluded that conventional risk assessment, considering anticipated exposure levels, will be protective of both human and ecological health. Although the toxic mechanisms of other azole compounds may be similar, large differences in potency will require a case-by-case risk assessment.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

A high-resolution soil erosion risk map of Switzerland as strategic policy support system

Soil erosion models and soil erosion risk maps are often used as indicators to assess potential soil erosion in order to assist policy decisions. This paper shows the scientific basis of the soil erosion risk map of Switzerland and its application in policy and practice. Linking a USLE/RUSLE-based model approach (AVErosion) founded on multiple flow algorithms and the unit contributing area concept with an extremely precise and high-resolution digital terrain model (2 m × 2 m grid) using GIS allows for a realistic assessment of the potential soil erosion risk, on single plots, i.e. uniform and comprehensive for the agricultural area of Switzerland (862,579 ha in the valley area and the lower mountain regions). The national or small-scale soil erosion prognosis has thus reached a level heretofore possible only in smaller catchment areas or single plots. Validation was carried out using soil loss data from soil erosion damage mappings in the field from long-term monitoring in different test areas. 45% of the evaluated agricultural area of Switzerland was classified as low potential erosion risk, 12% as moderate potential erosion risk, and 43% as high potential erosion risk. However, many of the areas classified as high potential erosion risk are located at the transition from valley to mountain zone, where many areas are used as permanent grassland, which drastically lowers their current erosion risk. The present soil erosion risk map serves on the one hand to identify and prioritise the high-erosion risk areas, and on the other hand to promote awareness amongst farmers and authorities. It was published on the internet and will be made available to the authorities in digital form. It is intended as a tool for simplifying and standardising enforcement of the legal framework for soil erosion prevention in Switzerland. The work therefore provides a successful example of cooperation between science, policy and practice.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Variability of in vivo fish acute toxicity data

The variability of toxicity data contained within databases was investigated using the widely used US EPA ECOTOX database as an example. Fish acute lethality (LC50) values for 44 compounds (for which at least 10 data entries existed) were extracted from the ECOTOX database yielding a total of 4654 test records. Significant variability of LC50 test results was observed, exceeding several orders of magnitude. In an attempt to systematically explore potential causes of the data variability, the influence of biological factors (such as test species or life stages) and physical factors (such as water temperature, pH or water hardness) were examined. Even after eliminating the influence of these inherent factors, considerable data variability remained, suggesting an important role of factors relating to technical and measurement procedures. The analysis, however, was limited by pronounced gaps in the test documentation. Of the 4654 extracted test reports, 66.5% provided no information on the fish life stage used for testing. Likewise, water temperature, hardness or pH were not recorded in 19.6%, 48.2% and 41.2% of the data entries, respectively. From these findings, we recommend the rigorous control of data entries ensuring complete recording of testing conditions. A more consistent database will help to better discriminate between technical and natural variability of the test data, which is of importance in ecological risk assessment for extrapolation from laboratory tests to the field, and also might help to develop correction factors that account for systematic differences in test results caused by species, life stage or test conditions.

A comparative study of different in vitro lung cell culture systems to assess the most beneficial tool for screening the potential adverse effects of carbon nanotubes

To determine the potential inhalatory risk posed by carbon nanotubes (CNTs), a tier-based approach beginning with an in vitro assessment must be adopted. The purpose of this study therefore was to compare 4 commonly used in vitro systems of the human lung (human blood monocyte-derived macrophages [MDM] and monocyte-derived dendritic cells [MDDC], 16HBE14o- epithelial cells, and a sophisticated triple cell co-culture model [TCC-C]) via assessment of the biological impact of different CNTs (single-walled CNTs [SWCNTs] and multiwalled CNTs [MWCNTs]) over 24h. No significant cytotoxicity was observed with any of the cell types tested, although a significant (p < .05), dose-dependent increase in tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α following SWCNT and MWCNT exposure at concentrations up to 0.02mg/ml to MDM, MDDC, and the TCC-C was found. The concentration of TNF-α released by the MDM and MDDC was significantly higher (p < .05) than the TCC-C. Significant increases (p < .05) in interleukin (IL)-8 were also found for both 16HBE14o- epithelial cells and the TCC-C after SWCNTs and MWCNTs exposure up to 0.02mg/ml. The TCC-C, however, elicited a significantly (p < .05) higher IL-8 release than the epithelial cells. The oxidative potential of both SWCNTs and MWCNTs (0.005-0.02mg/ml) measured by reduced glutathione (GSH) content showed a significant difference (p < .05) between each monoculture and the TCC-C. It was concluded that because only the co-culture system could assess each endpoint adequately, that, in comparison with monoculture systems, multicellular systems that take into consideration important cell type-to-cell type interactions could be used as predictive in vitro screening tools for determining the potential deleterious effects associated with CNTs.

A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Watershed classification in the Lower Mekong Basin: Rapid economic growth - a source of increasing potential for conflict over resource use

In the Lower Mekon Basin the extraordinary pace of economic development and growth contradicts with environmental protection. On base of the Watershed Classification Project (WSCP) and the inclusion of a DTM for the entire LMB the potential degradation risk was derived for each land unit. The risks were grouped into five classes, where classes one and two are considered critical with regard to soil erosion when the land is cleared of natural resources. For practical use the database has an enormous potential for further spatial analysis in combination with other datasets, as for example the NCCR North-South uses the WSCP within two research projects.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

Prevention and control of surgical site infections: review of the Basel Cohort Study

INTRODUCTION: Surgical site infections (SSI) are the most common hospital-acquired infections among surgical patients, with significant impact on patient morbidity and health care costs. The Basel SSI Cohort Study was performed to evaluate risk factors and validate current preventive measures for SSI. The objective of the present article was to review the main results of this study and its implications for clinical practice and future research. SUMMARY OF METHODS OF THE BASEL SSI COHORT STUDY: The prospective observational cohort study included 6,283 consecutive general surgery procedures closely monitored for evidence of SSI up to 1 year after surgery. The dataset was analysed for the influence of various potential SSI risk factors, including timing of surgical antimicrobial prophylaxis (SAP), glove perforation, anaemia, transfusion and tutorial assistance, using multiple logistic regression analyses. In addition, post hoc analyses were performed to assess the economic burden of SSI, the efficiency of the clinical SSI surveillance system, and the spectrum of SSI-causing pathogens. REVIEW OF MAIN RESULTS OF THE BASEL SSI COHORT STUDY: The overall SSI rate was 4.7% (293/6,283). While SAP was administered in most patients between 44 and 0 minutes before surgical incision, the lowest risk of SSI was recorded when the antibiotics were administered between 74 and 30 minutes before surgery. Glove perforation in the absence of SAP increased the risk of SSI (OR 2.0; CI 1.4-2.8; p <0.001). No significant association was found for anaemia, transfusion and tutorial assistance with the risk of SSI. The mean additional hospital cost in the event of SSI was CHF 19,638 (95% CI, 8,492-30,784). The surgical staff documented only 49% of in-hospital SSI; the infection control team registered the remaining 51%. Staphylococcus aureus was the most common SSI-causing pathogen (29% of all SSI with documented microbiology). No case of an antimicrobial-resistant pathogen was identified in this series. CONCLUSIONS: The Basel SSI Cohort Study suggested that SAP should be administered between 74 and 30 minutes before surgery. Due to the observational nature of these data, corroboration is planned in a randomized controlled trial, which is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. Routine change of gloves or double gloving is recommended in the absence of SAP. Anaemia, transfusion and tutorial assistance do not increase the risk of SSI. The substantial economic burden of in-hospital SSI has been confirmed. SSI surveillance by the surgical staff detected only half of all in-hospital SSI, which prompted the introduction of an electronic SSI surveillance system at the University Hospital of Basel and the Cantonal Hospital of Aarau. Due to the absence of multiresistant SSI-causing pathogens, the continuous use of single-shot single-drug SAP with cefuroxime (plus metronidazole in colorectal surgery) has been validated.

Triple and quadruple spontaneous cervical artery dissection: presenting characteristics and long-term outcome

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous cervicocephalic artery dissection (sCAD) of more than two cervical arteries is rare. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Vascular and potential sCAD risk factors, triggering events, clinical and neuroimaging findings, and outcome of patients with multiple sCAD were studied. Patients were drawn from prospective hospital-based sCAD registries. RESULTS: Of 740 consecutive patients with sCAD, 11 (1.5%) had three, and one had four (0.1%) sCAD. Eight of these 12 patients were women. One patient had additional dissections of the celiac trunk and hepatic artery. Vascular risk factors included hypertension (n = 1), hypercholesterolaemia (n = 6), current smoking (n = 5) and migraine (n = 6). No patient had a family history of sCAD, fibromuscular dysplasia (FMD) or connective tissue disease. SCAD was preceded by a minor trauma in five and infection in four patients. Clinical manifestations included ischaemic stroke (n = 8), transient ischaemic attack (n = 3), headache (n = 9), neck pain (n = 4), Horner syndrome (n = 5), pulsatile tinnitus (n = 2) and dysgeusia (n = 1). Brain MRI revealed ischaemic infarcts that affected one vessel territory in seven and two territories in two patients. The 3-month outcome was favourable (modified Rankin scale score 0-1) in 10 patients (83%). No new recurrent stroke or sCAD occurred during a mean follow-up of 50 (SD 29) months. CONCLUSION: Multiple sCAD occurred preferentially in women and caused clinical symptoms and signs mainly in one vascular territory. In none of the patients was FMD or any other underlying arteriopathy apparent. The majority of multiple sCAD was preceded by a minor trauma or infection. Clinical outcome was favourable in most patients, and long-term prognosis benign. The data suggest that transient vasculopathy may be a major mechanism for multiple sCAD.

Developmental toxicity and endocrine disrupting potency of 4-azapyrene, benzo[b]fluorene and retene in the zebrafish Danio rerio

This study examined the developmental toxicity of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) 11H-benzo(b)fluorene (BBF) and 4-azapyrene (AP) in comparison to the known teratogen retene. Developmental toxicity assays were performed in zebrafish embryos exposed for 120 h. BBF and retene induced a similar dioxin-like phenotype, whereas AP showed distinct effects, particularly craniofacial malformations. Microarray analysis revealed that for BBF and retene, drug metabolism pathways were induced, which were confirmed by subsequent studies of cyp1a gene expression. For AP, microarray analysis revealed the regulation of genes involved in retinoid metabolism and hematological functions. Studies with a panel of CALUX((R)) bioassays to screen for endocrine disrupting activity of the compounds also revealed novel antagonistic effects of BBF and retene on androgen and progesterone receptors. Classification analysis revealed distinct gene expression profiles for both individual and combined PAH exposure. This study highlights the potential health risk of non priority PAHs.