Networks of Information Exchange Under Uncertainty: The Case of Unconventional Gas Development in the United Kingdom

Modern policy-making is increasingly influenced by different types of uncertainty. Political actors are supposed to behave differently under the context of uncertainty then in “usual” decision-making processes. Actors exchange information in order to convince other actors and decision-makers, to coordinate their lobbying activities and form coalitions, and to get information and learn on the substantive issue. The literature suggests that preference similarity, social trust, perceived power and functional interdependence are particularly important drivers of information exchange. We assume that social trust as well as being connected to scientific actors is more important under uncertainty than in a setting with less uncertainty. To investigate information exchange under uncertainty analyze the case of unconventional shale gas development in the UK from 2008 till 2014. Our study will rely on statistical analyses of survey data on a diverse set of actors dealing with shale gas development and regulation in the UK.

Policy Instrument Selection under Uncertainty: The Case of Micropollution Regulation

The paper addresses the question of which factors drive the formation of policy preferences when there are remaining uncertainties about the causes and effects of the problem at stake. To answer this question we examine policy preferences reducing aquatic micropollutants, a specific case of water protection policy and different actor groups (e.g. state, science, target groups). Here, we contrast two types of policy preferences: a) preventive or source-directed policies, which mitigate pollution in order to avoid contact with water; and b) reactive or end-of-pipe policies, which filter water already contaminated by pollutants. In a second step, we analyze the drivers for actors’ policy preferences by focusing on three sets of explanations, i.e. participation, affectedness and international collaborations. The analysis of our survey data, qualitative interviews and regression analysis of the Swiss political elite show that participation in the policy-making process leads to knowledge exchange and reduces uncertainties about the policy problem, which promotes preferences for preventive policies. Likewise, actors who are affected by the consequences of micropollutants, such as consumer or environmental associations, opt for anticipatory policies. Interestingly, we find that uncertainties about the effectiveness of preventive policies can promote preferences for end-of-pipe policies. While preventive measures often rely on (uncertain) behavioral changes of target groups, reactive policies are more reliable when it comes to fulfilling defined policy goals. Finally, we find that in a transboundary water management context, actors with international collaborations prefer policies that produce immediate and reliable outcomes.

Collaboration patterns, external shocks and uncertainty: Swiss nuclear energy politics before and after Fukushima

Energy shocks like the Fukushima accident can have important political consequences. This article examines their impact on collaboration patterns between collective actors in policy processes. It argues that external shocks create both behavioral uncertainty, meaning that actors do not know about other actors' preferences, and policy uncertainty on the choice and consequences of policy instruments. The context of uncertainty interacts with classical drivers of actor collaboration in policy processes. The analysis is based on a dataset comprising interview and survey data on political actors in two subsequent policy processes in Switzerland and Exponential Random Graph Models for network data. Results first show that under uncertainty, collaboration of actors in policy processes is less based on similar preferences than in stable contexts, but trust and knowledge of other actors are more important. Second, under uncertainty, scientific actors are not preferred collaboration partners.

GSR deposition along the bullet path in contact shots to composite models

In contact shots, all the materials emerging from the muzzle (combustion gases, soot, powder grains, and metals from the primer) will be driven into the depth of the entrance wound and the following sections of the bullet track. The so-called "pocket" ("powder cavity") under the skin containing soot and gunpowder particles is regarded as a significant indicator of a contact entrance wound since one would expect that the quantity of GSR deposited along the bullet's path rapidly declines towards the exit hole. Nevertheless, experience has shown that soot, powder particles, and carboxyhemoglobin may be found not only in the initial part of the wound channel, but also far away from the entrance and even at the exit. In order to investigate the propagation of GSRs under standardized conditions, contact test shots were fired against composite models of pig skin and 25-cm-long gelatin blocks using 9-mm Luger pistol cartridges with two different primers (Sinoxid® and Sintox®). Subsequently, 1-cm-thick layers of the gelatin blocks were examined as to their primer element contents (lead, barium, and antimony as discharge residues of Sinoxid® as well as zinc and titanium from Sintox®) by means of X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. As expected, the highest element concentrations were found in the initial parts of the bullet tracks, but also the distal sections contained detectable amounts of the respective primer elements. The same was true for amorphous soot and unburned/partly burned powder particles, which could be demonstrated even at the exit site. With the help of a high-speed motion camera it was shown that for a short time the temporary cavitation extends from the entrance to the exit thus facilitating the unlimited spread of discharge residues along the whole bullet path.

Surgical planning tool for robotically assisted hearing aid implantation

PURPOSE : For the facilitation of minimally invasive robotically performed direct cochlea access (DCA) procedure, a surgical planning tool which enables the surgeon to define landmarks for patient-to-image registration, identify the necessary anatomical structures and define a safe DCA trajectory using patient image data (typically computed tomography (CT) or cone beam CT) is required. To this end, a dedicated end-to-end software planning system for the planning of DCA procedures that addresses current deficiencies has been developed. METHODS :    Efficient and robust anatomical segmentation is achieved through the implementation of semiautomatic algorithms; high-accuracy patient-to-image registration is achieved via an automated model-based fiducial detection algorithm and functionality for the interactive definition of a safe drilling trajectory based on case-specific drill positioning uncertainty calculations was developed. RESULTS :    The accuracy and safety of the presented software tool were validated during the conduction of eight DCA procedures performed on cadaver heads. The plan for each ear was completed in less than 20 min, and no damage to vital structures occurred during the procedures. The integrated fiducial detection functionality enabled final positioning accuracies of [Formula: see text] mm. CONCLUSIONS :    Results of this study demonstrated that the proposed software system could aid in the safe planning of a DCA tunnel within an acceptable time.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale

The development of susceptibility maps for debris flows is of primary importance due to population pressure in hazardous zones. However, hazard assessment by process-based modelling at a regional scale is difficult due to the complex nature of the phenomenon, the variability of local controlling factors, and the uncertainty in modelling parameters. A regional assessment must consider a simplified approach that is not highly parameter dependant and that can provide zonation with minimum data requirements. A distributed empirical model has thus been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using essentially a digital elevation model (DEM). The model is called Flow-R for Flow path assessment of gravitational hazards at a Regional scale (available free of charge under http://www.flow-r.org) and has been successfully applied to different case studies in various countries with variable data quality. It provides a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. The model was also found relevant to assess other natural hazards such as rockfall, snow avalanches and floods. The model allows for automatic source area delineation, given user criteria, and for the assessment of the propagation extent based on various spreading algorithms and simple frictional laws. We developed a new spreading algorithm, an improved version of Holmgren's direction algorithm, that is less sensitive to small variations of the DEM and that is avoiding over-channelization, and so produces more realistic extents. The choices of the datasets and the algorithms are open to the user, which makes it compliant for various applications and dataset availability. Amongst the possible datasets, the DEM is the only one that is really needed for both the source area delineation and the propagation assessment; its quality is of major importance for the results accuracy. We consider a 10 m DEM resolution as a good compromise between processing time and quality of results. However, valuable results have still been obtained on the basis of lower quality DEMs with 25 m resolution.

The nitrogen cycle of tropical montane forest in Ecuador turns inorganic under environmental change

Water-bound nitrogen (N) cycling in temperate terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere is today mainly inorganic because of anthropogenic release of reactive N to the environment. In little-industrialized and remote areas, in contrast, a larger part of N cycling occurs as dissolved organic N (DON). In a north Andean tropical montane forest in Ecuador, the N cycle changed markedly during 1998–2010 along with increasing N deposition and reduced soil moisture. The DON concentrations and the fractional contribution of DON to total N significantly decreased in rainfall, throughfall, and soil solutions. This inorganic turn of the N cycle was most pronounced in rainfall and became weaker along the flow path of water through the system until it disappeared in stream water. Decreasing organic contributions to N cycling were caused not only by increasing inorganic N input but also by reduced DON production and/or enhanced DON decomposition. Accelerated DON decomposition might be attributable to less waterlogging and higher nutrient availability. Significantly increasing NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios in throughfall and litter leachate below the thick organic layers indicated increasing nitrification. In mineral soil solutions, in contrast, NH4-N concentrations increased and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios decreased significantly, suggesting increasing net ammonification. Our results demonstrate that the remote tropical montane forests on the rim of the Amazon basin experienced a pronounced change of the N cycle in only one decade. This change likely parallels a similar change which followed industrialization in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere more than a century ago.

Fostering networking behavior, career planning and optimism, and subjective career success: An intervention study

The present study evaluated personal resource-oriented interventions supporting the career development of young academics, working at German universities within the STEM fields. The study sought to foster subjective career success by improving networking behavior, career planning, and career optimism. The study involved a quasi-experimental pre-post intervention with two intervention and two control groups (N = 81 research associates). Participants of the first intervention group received networking training; participants of the second intervention group received the same networking training plus individual career coaching. Participants of both intervention groups were female. Participants of the control groups (i.e., male vs. female group) did not participate in any intervention. As expected, path analyses, based on mean differences frompre-test to post-test, revealed an increase in career planning and career optimism within the networking plus career coaching intervention group, that was indirectly positively related to changes in subjective career success. Contrary to our expectations, the networking group training alone and in combination with the career coaching showed no effectiveness in fostering networking behavior. Results are discussed in the context of career counseling and intervention effectiveness studies.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

A Dynamic Route Planning Prototype for Cognitive Cities

A software prototype for dynamic route planning in the travel industry for cognitive cities is presented in this paper. In contrast to existing tools, the prototype enhances the travel experience (i.e., sightseeing) by allowing additional flexibility to the user. The theoretical background of the paper strengthens the understanding of the introduced concepts (e.g., cognitive cities, fuzzy logic, graph databases) to comprehend the presented prototype. The prototype applies an instantiation and enhancement of the graph database Neo4j . For didactical reasons and to strengthen the understanding of this prototype a scenario, applied to route planning in the city of Bern (Switzerland) is shown in the paper.

Choosing the path of austerity: how parties and policy coalitions influence welfare state retrenchment in periods of fiscal consolidation

What are the conditions under which some austerity programmes rely on substantial cuts to social spending? More specifically, do the partisan complexion and the type of government condition the extent to which austerity policies imply welfare state retrenchment? This article demonstrates that large budget consolidations tend to be associated with welfare state retrenchment. The findings support a partisan and a politico-institutionalist argument: (i) in periods of fiscal consolidation, welfare state retrenchment tends to be more pronounced under left-wing governments; (ii) since welfare state retrenchment is electorally and politically risky, it also tends to be more pronounced when pursued by a broad pro-reform coalition government. Therefore, the article shows that during budget consolidations implemented by left-wing broad coalition governments, welfare state retrenchment is greatest. Using long-run multipliers from autoregressive distributed lag models on 17 OECD countries during the 1982–2009 period, substantial support is found for these expectations.

Decision strategies for policy decisions under uncertainties: The case of mitigation measures addressing methane emissions from ruminants

Decision strategies aim at enabling reasonable decisions in cases of uncertain policy decision problems which do not meet the conditions for applying standard decision theory. This paper focuses on decision strategies that account for uncertainties by deciding whether a proposed list of policy options should be accepted or revised (scope strategies) and whether to decide now or later (timing strategies). They can be used in participatory approaches to structure the decision process. As a basis, we propose to classify the broad range of uncertainties affecting policy decision problems along two dimensions, source of uncertainty (incomplete information, inherent indeterminacy and unreliable information) and location of uncertainty (information about policy options, outcomes and values). Decision strategies encompass multiple and vague criteria to be deliberated in application. As an example, we discuss which decision strategies may account for the uncertainties related to nutritive technologies that aim at reducing methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants as a means of mitigating climate change, limiting our discussion to published scientific information. These considerations not only speak in favour of revising rather than accepting the discussed list of options, but also in favour of active postponement or semi-closure of decision-making rather than closure or passive postponement.

Gradient-domain Path Tracing

We introduce gradient-domain rendering for Monte Carlo image synthesis.While previous gradient-domain Metropolis Light Transport sought to distribute more samples in areas of high gradients, we show, in contrast, that estimating image gradients is also possible using standard (non-Metropolis) Monte Carlo algorithms, and furthermore, that even without changing the sample distribution, this often leads to significant error reduction. This broadens the applicability of gradient rendering considerably. To gain insight into the conditions under which gradient-domain sampling is beneficial, we present a frequency analysis that compares Monte Carlo sampling of gradients followed by Poisson reconstruction to traditional Monte Carlo sampling. Finally, we describe Gradient-Domain Path Tracing (G-PT), a relatively simple modification of the standard path tracing algorithm that can yield far superior results.