Does ‘better’ discounting lead to ‘worse’ outcomes in long-run decisions? The dilemma of hyperbolic discounting

The shortcomings of conventional discounting, especially in the context of long-run environmental problems, have been extensively discussed in the literature. Recently, hyperbolic discounting, i. e. discounting at declining instead of constant discount rates, has attracted a lot of interest among both scientists and politicians. Although there are compelling arguments for employing hyperbolic discounting, there are also pitfalls, which have to be pointed out. In this paper I show that the problem of time-inconsistency, an inherent characteristics of hyperbolic discounting, leads to a potential clash between economic efficiency and intergenerational equity. As an example, I refer to the weak progress in the controlling of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto protocol. As the problem of time-inconsistency cannot be solved on economic grounds alone, there is a need for an intergenerational moral commitment.

Comparing the performance of hyperbolic and circular rod quadrupole mass spectrometers with applied higher order auxiliary excitation

This work applies higher order auxiliary excitation techniques to two types of quadrupole mass spectrometers (QMSs): commercial systems and spaceborne instruments. The operational settings of a circular rod geometry commercial system and an engineering test-bed for a hyperbolic rod geometry spaceborne instrument were matched, with the relative performance of each sensor characterized with and without applied excitation using isotopic measurements of Kr+. Each instrument was operated at the limit of the test electronics to determine the effect of auxiliary excitation on extending instrument capabilities. For the circular rod sensor, with applied excitation, a doubling of the mass resolution at 1% of peak transmission resulted from the elimination of the low-mass side peak tail typical of such rod geometries. The mass peak stability and ion rejection efficiency were also increased by factors of 2 and 10, respectively, with voltage scan lines passing through the center of stability islands formed from auxiliary excitation. Auxiliary excitation also resulted in factors of 6 and 2 in peak stability and ion rejection efficiency, respectively, for the hyperbolic rod sensor. These results not only have significant implications for the use of circular rod quadrupoles with applied excitation as a suitable replacement for traditional hyperbolic rod sensors, but also for extending the capabilities of existing hyperbolic rod QMSs for the next generation of spaceborne instruments and low-mass commercial systems.

An ice-core based history of Siberian forest fires since AD 1250

Forest fires play a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus, can affect regional and global climate. Although fires in extended areas of Russian boreal forests have a considerable influence on atmospheric greenhouse gas and soot concentrations, estimates of their impact on climate are hampered by a lack of data on the history of forest fires. Especially regions with strong continental climate are of high importance due to an intensified development of wildfires. In this study we reconstruct the fire history of Southern Siberia during the past 750 years using ice-core based nitrate, potassium, and charcoal concentration records from Belukha glacier in the continental Siberian Altai. A period of exceptionally high forest-fire activity was observed between AD 1600 and 1680, following an extremely dry period AD 1540-1600. Ice-core pollen data suggest distinct forest diebacks and the expansion of steppe in response to dry climatic conditions. Coherence with a paleoenvironmental record from the 200 km distant Siberian lake Teletskoye shows that the vegetational shift AD 1540-1680, the increase in fire activity AD 1600-1680, and the subsequent recovery of forests AD 1700 were of regional significance. Dead biomass accumulation in response to drought and high temperatures around AD 1600 probably triggered maximum forest-fire activity AD 1600-1680. The extreme dry period in the 16th century was also observed at other sites in Central Asia and is possibly associated with a persistent positive mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). No significant increase in biomass burning occurred in the Altai region during the last 300 years, despite strongly increasing temperatures and human activities. Our results imply that precipitation changes controlled fire-regime and vegetation shifts in the Altai region during the past 750 years. We conclude that high sensitivity of ecosystems to occasional decadal-scale drought events may trigger unprecedented environmental reorganizations under global-warming conditions.

Summer temperature in the eastern part of southern South America: its variability in the twentieth century and a teleconnection with Oceania

The 1907–2001 summer-to-summer surface air temperature variability in the eastern part of southern South America (SSA, partly including Patagonia) is analysed. Based on records from instruments located next to the Atlantic Ocean (36°S–55°S), we define indices for the interannual and interdecadal timescales. The main interdecadal mode reflects the late-1970s cold-to-warm climate shift in the region and a warm-to-cold transition during early 1930s. Although it has been in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index since the 1960s, they diverged in the preceding decades. The main interannual variability index exhibits high spectral power at ~3.4 years and is representative of temperature variability in a broad area in the southern half of the continent. Eleven-years running correlation coefficients between this index and December-to-February (DJF) Niño3.4 show significant decadal fluctuations, out-of-phase with the running correlation with a DJF index of the Southern Annular Mode. The main interannual variability index is associated with a barotropic wavetrain-like pattern extending over the South Pacific from Oceania to SSA. During warm (cold) summers in SSA, significant anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies tend to predominate over eastern Australia, to the north of the Ross Sea, and to the east of SSA, whereas anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation is observed over New Zealand and west of SSA. This teleconnection links warm (cold) SSA anomalies with dry (wet) summers in eastern Australia. The covariability seems to be influenced by the characteristics of tropical forcing; indeed, a disruption has been observed since late 1970s, presumably due to the PDO warm phase.

Higher order parametric excitation modes for spaceborne quadrupole mass spectrometers

This paper describes a technique to significantly improve upon the mass peak shape and mass resolution of spaceborne quadrupolemass spectrometers (QMSs) through higher order auxiliary excitation of the quadrupole field. Using a novel multiresonant tank circuit, additional frequency components can be used to drive modulating voltages on the quadrupole rods in a practical manner, suitable for both improved commercial applications and spaceflight instruments. Auxiliary excitation at frequencies near twice that of the fundamental quadrupole RF frequency provides the advantages of previously studied parametric excitation techniques, but with the added benefit of increased sensed excitation amplitude dynamic range and the ability to operate voltage scan lines through the center of upper stability islands. Using a field programmable gate array, the amplitudes and frequencies of all QMS signals are digitally generated and managed, providing a robust and stable voltage control system. These techniques are experimentally verified through an interface with a commercial Pfeiffer QMG422 quadrupole rod system. When operating through the center of a stability island formed from higher order auxiliary excitation, approximately 50% and 400% improvements in 1% mass resolution and peak stability were measured, respectively, when compared with traditional QMS operation. Although tested with a circular rod system, the presented techniques have the potential to improve the performance of both circular and hyperbolic rod geometry QMS sensors.

Orbital elements of the material surrounding comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Context. We investigate the dust coma within the Hill sphere of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Aims. We aim to determine osculating orbital elements for individual distinguishable but unresolved slow-moving grains in the vicinity of the nucleus. In addition, we perform photometry and constrain grain sizes. Methods. We performed astrometry and photometry using images acquired by the OSIRIS Wide Angle Camera on the European Space Agency spacecraft Rosetta. Based on these measurements, we employed standard orbit determination and orbit improvement techniques. Results. Orbital elements and effective diameters of four grains were constrained, but we were unable to uniquely determine them. Two of the grains have light curves that indicate grain rotation. Conclusions. The four grains have diameters nominally in the range 0.14-0.50 m. For three of the grains, we found elliptic orbits, which is consistent with a cloud of bound particles around the nucleus. However, hyperbolic escape trajectories cannot be excluded for any of the grains, and for one grain this is the only known option. One grain may have originated from the surface shortly before observation. These results have possible implications for the understanding of the dispersal of the cloud of bound debris around comet nuclei, as well as for understanding the ejection of large grains far from the Sun.