A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Retrieval simulations of the vertical profiles of water vapour and other chemical species in the Martian atmosphere using PACS

Water vapour, despite being a minor constituent in the Martian atmosphere with its precipitable amount of less than 70 pr. μm, attracts considerable attention in the scientific community because of its potential importance for past life on Mars. The partial pressure of water vapour is highly variable because of its seasonal condensation onto the polar caps and exchange with a subsurface reservoir. It is also known to drive photochemical processes: photolysis of water produces H, OH, HO2 and some other odd hydrogen compounds, which in turn destroy ozone. Consequently, the abundance of water vapour is anti-correlated with ozone abundance. The Herschel Space Observatory provides for the first time the possibility to retrieve vertical water profiles in the Martian atmosphere. Herschel will contribute to this topic with its guaranteed-time key project called "Water and related chemistry in the solar system". Observations of Mars by Heterodyne Instrument for the Far Infrared (HIFI) and Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) onboard Herschel are planned in the frame of the programme. HIFI with its high spectral resolution enables accurate observations of vertically resolved H2O and temperature profiles in the Martian atmosphere. Unlike HIFI, PACS is not capable of resolving the line-shape of molecular lines. However, our present study of PACS observations for the Martian atmosphere shows that the vertical sensitivity of the PACS observations can be improved by using multiple-line observations with different line opacities. We have investigated the possibility of retrieving vertical profiles of temperature and molecular abundances of minor species including H2O in the Martian atmosphere using PACS. In this paper, we report that PACS is able to provide water vapour vertical profiles for the Martian atmosphere and we present the expected spectra for future PACS observations. We also show that the spectral resolution does not allow the retrieval of several studied minor species, such as H2O2, HCl, NO, SO2, etc.

Varying spin state composition by the choice of capping ligand in a family of molecular chains: detailed analysis of magnetic properties of chromium(III) horseshoes

We report a detailed physical analysis on a family of isolated, antiferro-magnetically (AF) coupled, chromium(III) finite chains, of general formula (Cr(RCO(2))(2)F)(n) where the chain length n = 6 or 7. Additionally, the chains are capped with a selection of possible terminating ligands, including hfac (= 1,1,1,5,5,5-hexafluoropentane-2,4-dionate(1-)), acac (= pentane-2,4-dionate(1-)) or (F)(3). Measurements by inelastic neutron scattering (INS), magnetometery and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopy have been used to study how the electronic properties are affected by n and capping ligand type. These comparisons allowed the subtle electronic effects the choice of capping ligand makes for odd member spin 3/2 ground state and even membered spin 0 ground state chains to be investigated. For this investigation full characterisation of physical properties have been performed with spin Hamiltonian parameterisation, including the determination of Heisenberg exchange coupling constants and single ion axial and rhombic anisotropy. We reveal how the quantum spin energy levels of odd or even membered chains can be modified by the type of capping ligand terminating the chain. Choice of capping ligands enables Cr-Cr exchange coupling to be adjusted by 0, 4 or 24%, relative to Cr-Cr exchange coupling within the body of the chain, by the substitution of hfac, acac or (F)(3) capping ligands to the ends of the chain, respectively. The manipulation of quantum spin levels via ligands which play no role in super-exchange, is of general interest to the practise of spin Hamilton modelling, where such second order effects are generally not considered of relevance to magnetic properties.

Multilead quantitative electroencephalogram profile and cognitive evoked potentials (P300) in healthy subjects after a single dose of olanzapine

RATIONALE: Olanzapine is an atypical antipsychotic drug with a more favourable safety profile than typical antipsychotics with a hitherto unknown topographic quantitative electroencephalogram (QEEG) profile. OBJECTIVES: We investigated electrical brain activity (QEEG and cognitive event related potentials, ERPs) in healthy subjects who received olanzapine. METHODS: Vigilance-controlled, 19-channel EEG and ERP in an auditory odd-ball paradigm were recorded before and 3 h, 6 h and 9 h after administration of either a single dose of placebo or olanzapine (2.5 mg and 5 mg) in ten healthy subjects. QEEG was analysed by spectral analysis and evaluated in nine frequency bands. For the P300 component in the odd-ball ERP, the amplitude and latency was analysed. Statistical effects were tested using a repeated-measurement analysis of variance. RESULTS: For the interaction between time and treatment, significant effects were observed for theta, alpha-2, beta-2 and beta-4 frequency bands. The amplitude of the activity in the theta band increased most significantly 6 h after the 5-mg administration of olanzapine. A pronounced decrease of the alpha-2 activity especially 9 h after 5 mg olanzapine administration could be observed. In most beta frequency bands, and most significantly in the beta-4 band, a dose-dependent decrease of the activity beginning 6 h after drug administration was demonstrated. Topographic effects could be observed for the beta-2 band (occipital decrease) and a tendency for the alpha-2 band (frontal increase and occipital decrease), both indicating a frontal shift of brain electrical activity. There were no significant changes in P300 amplitude or latency after drug administration. Conclusion: QEEG alterations after olanzapine administration were similar to EEG effects gained by other atypical antipsychotic drugs, such as clozapine. The increase of theta activity is comparable to the frequency distribution observed for thymoleptics or antipsychotics for which treatment-emergent somnolence is commonly observed, whereas the decrease of beta activity observed after olanzapine administration is not characteristic for these drugs. There were no clear signs for an increased cerebral excitability after a single-dose administration of 2.5 mg and 5 mg olanzapine in healthy controls.

Minimizing the Threat of a Positive Majority Deficit in Two-tier Voting Systems with Equipopulous Units

The mean majority deficit in a two-tier voting system is a function of the partition of the population. We derive a new square-root rule: For odd-numbered population sizes and equipopulous units the mean majority deficit is maximal when the member size of the units in the partition is close to the square root of the population size. Furthermore, within the partitions into roughly equipopulous units, partitions with small even numbers of units or small even-sized units yield high mean majority deficits. We discuss the implications for the winner-takes-all system in the US Electoral College.

Convolution roots and differentiability of isotropic positive definite functions on spheres

We prove that any isotropic positive definite function on the sphere can be written as the spherical self-convolution of an isotropic real-valued function. It is known that isotropic positive definite functions on d-dimensional Euclidean space admit a continuous derivative of order [(d − 1)/2]. We show that the same holds true for isotropic positive definite functions on spheres and prove that this result is optimal for all odd dimensions.

On the stratigraphic integrity of leaf-wax biomarkers in loess paleosols

Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimate reconstructions based on molecular proxies, such as those derived from leaf-wax biomarkers, in loess-paleosol sequences represent a promising line of investigation in Quaternary research. The main premise of such reconstructions is the synsedimentary deposition of biomarkers and dust, which has become a debated subject in recent years. This study uses two independent approaches to test the stratigraphic integrity of leaf-wax biomarkers: (i) long-chain n-alkanes and fatty acids are quantified in two sediment-depth profiles in glacial till on the Swiss Plateau, consisting of a Holocene topsoil and the underlying B and C horizons. Since glacial sediments are initially very poor in organic matter, significant amounts of leaf-wax biomarkers in the B and C horizons of those profiles would reflect postsedimentary root-derived or microbial contributions. (ii) Compound-specific radiocarbon measurements are conducted on n-alkanes and n-alkanoic (fatty) acids from several depth intervals in the loess section "Crvenka", Serbia, and the results are compared to independent estimates of sediment age. We find extremely low concentrations of plant-wax n-alkanes and fatty acids in the B and C horizons below the topsoils in the sediment profiles. Moreover, compound-specific radiocarbon analysis yields plant-wax 14C ages that agree well with published luminescence ages and stratigraphy of the Serbian loess deposit. Both approaches confirm that postsedimentary, root-derived or microbial contributions are negligible in the two investigated systems. The good agreement between the ages of odd and even homologues also indicates that reworking and incorporation of fossil leaf waxes is not particularly relevant either.

Lobotomy of Flux Compactifications

We provide the dictionary between four-dimensional gauged supergravity and type II compactifications on T6 with metric and gauge fluxes in the absence of supersymmetry breaking sources, such as branes and orientifold planes. Secondly, we prove that there is a unique isotropic compactification allowing for critical points. It corresponds to a type IIA background given by a product of two 3-tori with SO(3) twists and results in a unique theory (gauging) with a non-semisimple gauge algebra. Besides the known four AdS solutions surviving the orientifold projection to N = 4 induced by O6-planes, this theory contains a novel AdS solution that requires non-trivial orientifold-odd fluxes, hence being a genuine critical point of the N = 8 theory.

A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability

A multi-model analysis of Atlantic multidecadal variability is performed with the following aims: to investigate the similarities to observations; to assess the strength and relative importance of the different elements of the mechanism proposed by Delworth et al. (J Clim 6:1993–2011, 1993) (hereafter D93) among coupled general circulation models (CGCMs); and to relate model differences to mean systematic error. The analysis is performed with long control simulations from ten CGCMs, with lengths ranging between 500 and 3600 years. In most models the variations of sea surface temperature (SST) averaged over North Atlantic show considerable power on multidecadal time scales, but with different periodicity. The SST variations are largest in the mid-latitude region, consistent with the short instrumental record. Despite large differences in model configurations, we find quite some consistency among the models in terms of processes. In eight of the ten models the mid-latitude SST variations are significantly correlated with fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), suggesting a link to northward heat transport changes. Consistent with this link, the three models with the weakest AMOC have the largest cold SST bias in the North Atlantic. There is no linear relationship on decadal timescales between AMOC and North Atlantic Oscillation in the models. Analysis of the key elements of the D93 mechanisms revealed the following: Most models present strong evidence that high-latitude winter mixing precede AMOC changes. However, the regions of wintertime convection differ among models. In most models salinity-induced density anomalies in the convective region tend to lead AMOC, while temperature-induced density anomalies lead AMOC only in one model. However, analysis shows that salinity may play an overly important role in most models, because of cold temperature biases in their relevant convective regions. In most models subpolar gyre variations tend to lead AMOC changes, and this relation is strong in more than half of the models.

First πK atom lifetime and πK scattering length measurements

The results of a search for hydrogen-like atoms consisting of π∓K±π∓K± mesons are presented. Evidence for πK atom production by 24 GeV/c protons from CERN PS interacting with a nickel target has been seen in terms of characteristic πK pairs from their breakup in the same target (178±49178±49) as well as in terms of produced πK atoms (653±42653±42). Using these results, the analysis yields a first value for the πK atom lifetime of View the MathML sourceτ=(2.5−1.8+3.0) fs and a first measurement of the S-wave isospin-odd πK scattering length View the MathML source|a0−|=13|a1/2−a3/2|=(0.11−0.04+0.09)Mπ−1 (aIaI for isospin I).

CODE’s new solar radiation pressure model for GNSS orbit determination

The Empirical CODE Orbit Model (ECOM) of the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE), which was developed in the early 1990s, is widely used in the International GNSS Service (IGS) community. For a rather long time, spurious spectral lines are known to exist in geophysical parameters, in particular in the Earth Rotation Parameters (ERPs) and in the estimated geocenter coordinates, which could recently be attributed to the ECOM. These effects grew creepingly with the increasing influence of the GLONASS system in recent years in the CODE analysis, which is based on a rigorous combination of GPS and GLONASS since May 2003. In a first step we show that the problems associated with the ECOM are to the largest extent caused by the GLONASS, which was reaching full deployment by the end of 2011. GPS-only, GLONASS-only, and combined GPS/GLONASS solutions using the observations in the years 2009–2011 of a global network of 92 combined GPS/GLONASS receivers were analyzed for this purpose. In a second step we review direct solar radiation pressure (SRP) models for GNSS satellites. We demonstrate that only even-order short-period harmonic perturbations acting along the direction Sun-satellite occur for GPS and GLONASS satellites, and only odd-order perturbations acting along the direction perpendicular to both, the vector Sun-satellite and the spacecraft’s solar panel axis. Based on this insight we assess in the third step the performance of four candidate orbit models for the future ECOM. The geocenter coordinates, the ERP differences w. r. t. the IERS 08 C04 series of ERPs, the misclosures for the midnight epochs of the daily orbital arcs, and scale parameters of Helmert transformations for station coordinates serve as quality criteria. The old and updated ECOM are validated in addition with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations and by comparing the orbits to those of the IGS and other analysis centers. Based on all tests, we present a new extended ECOM which substantially reduces the spurious signals in the geocenter coordinate z (by about a factor of 2–6), reduces the orbit misclosures at the day boundaries by about 10 %, slightly improves the consistency of the estimated ERPs with those of the IERS 08 C04 Earth rotation series, and substantially reduces the systematics in the SLR validation of the GNSS orbits.