Associating optical measurements and estimating orbits of geocentric objects through population-based meta-heuristic methods

Currently several thousands of objects are being tracked in the MEO and GEO regions through optical means. The problem faced in this framework is that of Multiple Target Tracking (MTT). In this context both, the correct associations among the observations and the orbits of the objects have to be determined. The complexity of the MTT problem is defined by its dimension S. The number S corresponds to the number of fences involved in the problem. Each fence consists of a set of observations where each observation belongs to a different object. The S ≥ 3 MTT problem is an NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem. There are two general ways to solve this. One way is to seek the optimum solution, this can be achieved by applying a branch-and- bound algorithm. When using these algorithms the problem has to be greatly simplified to keep the computational cost at a reasonable level. Another option is to approximate the solution by using meta-heuristic methods. These methods aim to efficiently explore the different possible combinations so that a reasonable result can be obtained with a reasonable computational effort. To this end several population-based meta-heuristic methods are implemented and tested on simulated optical measurements. With the advent of improved sensors and a heightened interest in the problem of space debris, it is expected that the number of tracked objects will grow by an order of magnitude in the near future. This research aims to provide a method that can treat the correlation and orbit determination problems simultaneously, and is able to efficiently process large data sets with minimal manual intervention.

A heuristic approach for scheduling assessment centers

Human resources managers often use assessment centers to evaluate candidates for a job position. During an assessment center, the candidates perform a series of exercises. The exercises require one or two assessors (e.g., managers or psychologists) that observe and evaluate the candidate. If an exercise is designed as a role-play, an actor is required as well which plays, e.g., an unhappy customer with whom the candidate has to deal with. Besides performing the exercises, the candidates have a lunch break within a prescribed time window. Each candidate should be observed by approximately half the number of the assessors. Moreover, an assessor cannot be assigned to a candidate if they personally know each other. The planning problem consists of determining (1) resource-feasible start times of all exercises and lunch breaks and (2) a feasible assignment of assessors to candidates, such that the assessment center duration is minimized. We propose a list-scheduling heuristic that generates feasible schedules for such assessment centers. We develop novel procedures for devising an appropriate scheduling list and for incorporating the problem-specific constraints. Our computational results indicate that our approach is capable of devising optimal or near-optimal solutions to real-world instances within short CPU time.

[Do breast-fed children have a lower risk for later obesity? Discussion of a meta-analysis]

The relationship between breast-feeding and childhood obesity is of great interest. Since 2000, several studies have been published with conflicting data regarding the potential protective effect of breast-feeding on childhood obesity. Meta-analyses suggested a small but significant protective effect of breast-feeding, but a recent study was not able to show such an effect. This paper summarises one of these meta-analyses and discusses the strengths and limitations of the meta-analysis approach.

Initial orthodontic alignment effectiveness with self-ligating and conventional appliances: a network meta-analysis in practice.

Systematic reviews of well-designed trials constitute a high level of scientific evidence and are important for medical decision making. Meta-analysis facilitates integration of the evidence using a transparent and systematic approach, leading to a broader interpretation of treatment effectiveness and safety than can be attained from individual studies. Traditional meta-analyses are limited to comparing just 2 interventions concurrently and cannot combine evidence concerning multiple treatments. A relatively recent extension of the traditional meta-analytical approach is network meta-analysis, which allows, under certain assumptions, the quantitative synthesis of all evidence under a unified framework and across a network of all eligible trials. Network meta-analysis combines evidence from direct and indirect information via common comparators; interventions can therefore be ranked in terms of the analyzed outcome. In this article, the network meta-analysis approach is introduced in a nontechnical manner using a worked example on the treatment effectiveness of conventional and self-ligating appliances.

What is the influence of randomisation sequence generation and allocation concealment on treatment effects of physical therapy trials? A meta-epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVE To determine if adequacy of randomisation and allocation concealment is associated with changes in effect sizes (ES) when comparing physical therapy (PT) trials with and without these methodological characteristics. DESIGN Meta-epidemiological study. PARTICIPANTS A random sample of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) included in meta-analyses in the PT discipline were identified. INTERVENTION Data extraction including assessments of random sequence generation and allocation concealment was conducted independently by two reviewers. To determine the association between sequence generation, and allocation concealment and ES, a two-level analysis was conducted using a meta-meta-analytic approach. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES association between random sequence generation and allocation concealment and ES in PT trials. RESULTS 393 trials included in 43 meta-analyses, analysing 44 622 patients contributed to this study. Adequate random sequence generation and appropriate allocation concealment were accomplished in only 39.7% and 11.5% of PT trials, respectively. Although trials with inappropriate allocation concealment tended to have an overestimate treatment effect when compared with trials with adequate concealment of allocation, the difference was non-statistically significant (ES=0.12; 95% CI -0.06 to 0.30). When pooling our results with those of Nuesch et al, we obtained a pooled statistically significant value (ES=0.14; 95% CI 0.02 to 0.26). There was no difference in ES in trials with appropriate or inappropriate random sequence generation (ES=0.02; 95% CI -0.12 to 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Our results suggest that when evaluating risk of bias of primary RCTs in PT area, systematic reviewers and clinicians implementing research into practice should pay attention to these biases since they could exaggerate treatment effects. Systematic reviewers should perform sensitivity analysis including trials with low risk of bias in these domains as primary analysis and/or in combination with less restrictive analyses. Authors and editors should make sure that allocation concealment and random sequence generation are properly reported in trial reports.

How valuable are multiple treatment comparison methods in evidence-based health-care evaluation?

Objectives To compare the use of pair-wise meta-analysis methods to multiple treatment comparison (MTC) methods for evidence-based health-care evaluation to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of alternative health-care interventions based on the available evidence. Methods Pair-wise meta-analysis and more complex evidence syntheses, incorporating an MTC component, are applied to three examples: 1) clinical effectiveness of interventions for preventing strokes in people with atrial fibrillation; 2) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using drug-eluting stents in percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with coronary artery disease; and 3) clinical and cost-effectiveness of using neuraminidase inhibitors in the treatment of influenza. We compare the two synthesis approaches with respect to the assumptions made, empirical estimates produced, and conclusions drawn. Results The difference between point estimates of effectiveness produced by the pair-wise and MTC approaches was generally unpredictable—sometimes agreeing closely whereas in other instances differing considerably. In all three examples, the MTC approach allowed the inclusion of randomized controlled trial evidence ignored in the pair-wise meta-analysis approach. This generally increased the precision of the effectiveness estimates from the MTC model. Conclusions The MTC approach to synthesis allows the evidence base on clinical effectiveness to be treated as a coherent whole, include more data, and sometimes relax the assumptions made in the pair-wise approaches. However, MTC models are necessarily more complex than those developed for pair-wise meta-analysis and thus could be seen as less transparent. Therefore, it is important that model details and the assumptions made are carefully reported alongside the results.

Interactional behaviour as a marker for screening patients with environment-related complaints

BACKGROUND: Adequate assessment of symptoms of patients suffering from environmental illnesses requires appropriate procedures such as psychological and psychiatric diagnostics, medical screening and a thorough analysis of noxious environmental factors. The Basel pilot research project established a multi-methodological assessment procedure that meets these criteria. However, an exhaustive three-fold analysis is very costly in terms of both equipment and personnel, and hence the need for a heuristic approach and pre-screening persists. METHOD: The three-fold diagnostic approach was preceded by a structured psychodynamic interview; the findings were used to construct a new profile of the patient's interactional behaviour (IB) in conjunction with the interviewer's countertransference. The extent to which this new profile could predict the results of the multi-method assessment was then assessed. RESULTS: A low level of IB on the part of the patient significantly predicted the degree of stress and the extent of the psychiatric diagnosis, including personality disorders. A negative IB was associated with negative personality traits. Furthermore, a high level of IB implied more medical, but not more environmental, findings which could plausibly be related to the patient's complaints. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of patients' IB in conjunction with one's own countertransference is very helpful as a preliminary heuristic approach and may lead to consequences for treatment and therapy. Therefore, the training provided for experts who deal with patients suffering from environment-related complaints should place more specific emphasis on assessing patients' behaviour and on incorporating information gathered from countertransference. Nevertheless, an interdisciplinary assessment including medical, psychological/psychiatric, and environmental expertise remains mandatory for adequate and satisfactory diagnosis of patients with environment-related complaints.

A deep dig--hindsight on Holocene vegetation composition from ancient environmental DNA

Want a glimpse at past vegetation? Studying pollen and other plant remains, which are preserved for example in lake sediments or mires for thousands of years, allows us to document regional occurrences of plant species over radiocarbon-dated time series. Such vegetation reconstructions derived from optical analyses of fossil samples are inherently incomplete because they only comprise taxa that contribute sufficient amounts of pollen, spores, macrofossil or other evidences. To complement optical analyses for paleoecological inference, molecular markers applied to ancient DNA (aDNA) may help in disclosing information hitherto inaccessible to biologists. Parducci et al. (2013) targeted aDNA from sediment cores of two lakes in the Scandes Mountains with generic primers in a meta-barcoding approach. When compared to palynological records from the same cores, respective taxon lists show remarkable differences in their compositions, but also in quantitative representation and in taxonomic resolution similar to a previous study (Jørgensen et al. 2012). While not free of assumptions that need critical and robust testing, notably the question of possible contamination, this study provides thrilling prospects to improve our knowledge about past vegetation composition, but also other organismic groups, stored as a biological treasure in the ground.

Can non-selective beta-blockers prevent hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis?

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the main liver-related cause of death in patients with compensated cirrhosis. The early phases are asymptomatic and the prognosis is poor, which makes prevention essential. We propose that non-selective beta-blockers decrease the incidence and growth of hepatocellular carcinoma via a reduction of the inflammatory load from the gut to the liver and inhibition of angiogenesis. Due to their effect on the portal pressure, non-selective beta-blockers are used for prevention of esophageal variceal bleeding. Recently, non-hemodynamic effects of beta-blockers have received increasing attention. Blockage of β-adrenoceptors in the intestinal mucosa and gut lymphatic tissue together with changes in type and virulence of the intestinal microbiota lead to reduced bacterial translocation and a subsequent decrease in the portal load of pathogen-associated molecular patterns. This may reduce hepatic inflammation. Blockage of β-adrenoceptors also decrease angiogenesis by inhibition of vascular endothelial growth factors. Because gut-derived inflammation and neo-angiogenesis are important in hepatic carcinogenesis, non-selective beta-blockers can potentially reduce the development and growth of hepatocellular carcinoma. Rodent and in vitro studies support the hypothesis, but clinical verification is needed. Different study designs may be considered. The feasibility of a randomized controlled trial is limited due to the necessary large number of patients and long follow-up. Observational studies carry a high risk of bias. The meta-analytic approach may be used if the incidence and mortality of hepatocellular carcinoma can be extracted from trials on variceal bleeding and if the combined sample size and follow up is sufficient.

Bedeutung der Arbeitsallianz in der Psychotherapie

Das pantheoretische Konzept der Arbeitsallianz stellt die kollaborative Qualität der an der Therapie beteiligten Personen (i. e. zumeist der Patient und der Therapeut) in den Mittelpunkt. Die Arbeitsallianz ist die weltweit am besten untersuchte Prozessvariable in der Psychotherapie. Die vorliegende Arbeit bietet einen Überblick über den aktuellen metaanalytischen Wissensstand. Basierend auf 200 Primärstudien mit 14.000 teilnehmenden Patienten wurde der Zusammenhang zwischen Arbeitsallianz und Therapieerfolg metaanalytisch untersucht. Die Arbeitsallianz erweist sich als äußerst robuster Prädiktor, der moderate 8 % der Varianz des Therapieerfolgs erklärt. Der Zusammenhang über die verschiedenen Psychotherapietraditionen hinweg zeigte sich sowohl unter randomisierten kontrollierten, manualisierten Studienbedingungen als auch unter naturalistischen Voraussetzungen. Der Effekt fand sich zudem in den störungsspezifischen Erfolgseinschätzungen und den generelleren Erfolgsmaßen. Die moderaten Therapeuteneffekte in den Primärstudien konnten metaanalytisch bestätigt werden. Soziokulturelle Aspekte wie Substanzmissbrauch und ethnische Minoritäten moderieren den Einfluss zwischen Arbeitsallianz und Therapieerfolg. Die Nähe der Forscher zum Allianzkonzept („allegiance“) beeinflusst die Vorhersagekraft der frühen Allianz zwar statistisch bedeutsam, jedoch nicht substanziell.

Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting.

BACKGROUND Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. METHODS AND FINDINGS WHO's 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15-49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7-4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6-1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0-6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4-0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0-3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4-0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4-0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3-0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100-166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53-110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98-202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4-8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level.

Run-Time Evolution through Explicit Meta-Objects

Software must be constantly adapted due to evolving domain knowledge and unanticipated requirements changes. To adapt a system at run-time we need to reflect on its structure and its behavior. Object-oriented languages introduced reflection to deal with this issue, however, no reflective approach up to now has tried to provide a unified solution to both structural and behavioral reflection. This paper describes Albedo, a unified approach to structural and behavioral reflection. Albedo is a model of fined-grained unanticipated dynamic structural and behavioral adaptation. Instead of providing reflective capabilities as an external mechanism we integrate them deeply in the environment. We show how explicit meta-objects allow us to provide a range of reflective features and thereby evolve both application models and environments at run-time.

Efficacy of communication skills training courses in oncology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: Group training in communication skills [communication skills training (CST)] has become partly mandatory for oncology staff. However, so far, a comprehensive meta-analysis on the efficacy is lacking. Design: Included studies either compare the efficacy of a specific training with a control group or look at the additional effect of booster sessions on communication behaviour, attitudes or patient outcomes. Methods: Four electronic databases were searched up to July 2008 without language restriction, and reference lists of earlier reviews were screened. Effect sizes (ESs) were extracted and pooled in random effects meta-analyses. Results: We included 13 trials (three non-randomised), 10 with no specific intervention in the control group. Meta-analysis showed a moderate effect of CST on communication behaviour ES = 0.54. Three trials compared basic training courses with more extensive training courses and showed a small additional effect on communication skills ES = 0.37. Trials investigating participants' attitudes ES = 0.35 and patient outcomes ES = 0.13 (trend) confirmed this effect. Conclusions: Training health professionals by CST is a promising approach to change communication behaviour and attitudes. Patients might also benefit from specifically trained health professionals but strong studies are lacking. However, feasibility and economic aspects have to be kept in mind when considering providing a training of optimal length.