Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Integrated care programmes for adults with chronic conditions: a meta-review.

OBJECTIVE To review systematic reviews and meta-analyses of integrated care programmes in chronically ill patients, with a focus on methodological quality, elements of integration assessed and effects reported. DESIGN Meta-review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses identified in Medline (1946-March 2012), Embase (1980-March 2012), CINHAL (1981-March 2012) and the Cochrane Library of Systematic Reviews (issue 1, 2012). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Methodological quality assessed by the 11-item Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist; elements of integration assessed using a published list of 10 key principles of integration; effects on patient-centred outcomes, process quality, use of healthcare and costs. RESULTS Twenty-seven systematic reviews were identified; conditions included chronic heart failure (CHF; 12 reviews), diabetes mellitus (DM; seven reviews), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; seven reviews) and asthma (five reviews). The median number of AMSTAR checklist items met was five: few reviewers searched for unpublished literature or described the primary studies and interventions in detail. Most reviews covered comprehensive services across the care continuum or standardization of care through inter-professional teams, but organizational culture, governance structure or financial management were rarely assessed. A majority of reviews found beneficial effects of integration, including reduced hospital admissions and re-admissions (in CHF and DM), improved adherence to treatment guidelines (DM, COPD and asthma) or quality of life (DM). Few reviews showed reductions in costs. CONCLUSIONS Systematic reviews of integrated care programmes were of mixed quality, assessed only some components of integration of care, and showed consistent benefits for some outcomes but not others.

Loss estimation for landslides in mountain areas – An integrated toolbox for vulnerability assessment and damage documentation

Global environmental change includes changes in a wide range of global scale phenomena, which are expected to affect a number of physical processes, as well as the vulnerability of the communities that will experience their impact. Decision-makers are in need of tools that will enable them to assess the loss of such processes under different future scenarios and to design risk reduction strategies. In this paper, a tool is presented that can be used by a range of end-users (e.g. local authorities, decision makers, etc.) for the assessment of the monetary loss from future landslide events, with a particular focus on torrential processes. The toolbox includes three functions: a) enhancement of the post-event damage data collection process, b) assessment of monetary loss of future events and c) continuous updating and improvement of an existing vulnerability curve by adding data of recent events. All functions of the tool are demonstrated through examples of its application.

The two modes of an athlete: Dual-process theories in the field of sport

The goal of the present article is to introduce dual-process theories – in particular the default-interventionist model – as an overarching framework for attention-related research in sports. Dual-process theories propose that two different types of processing guide human behavior. Type 1 processing is independent of available working memory capacity (WMC), whereas Type 2 processing depends on available working memory capacity. We review the latest theoretical developments on dual-process theories and present evidence for the validity of dual-process theories from various domains. We demonstrate how existing sport psychology findings can be integrated within the dual-process framework. We illustrate how future sport psychology research might benefit from adopting the dual-process framework as a meta-theoretical framework by arguing that the complex interplay between Type 1 and Type 2 processing has to be taken into account in order to gain a more complete understanding of the dynamic nature of attentional processing during sport performance at varying levels of expertise. Finally, we demonstrate that sport psychology applications might benefit from the dual-process perspective as well: dual-process theories are able to predict which behaviors can be more successfully executed when relying on Type 1 processing and which behaviors benefit from Type 2 processing.

The Interplay between Melting, Refertilization and Carbonatite Metasomatism in Off-Cratonic Lithospheric Mantle under Zealandia: an Integrated Major, Trace and Platinum Group Element Study

It is widely accepted that stabilization of the continental crust requires the presence of sub-continental lithospheric mantle. However, the degree of melt depletion required to stabilize the lithosphere and whether widespread refertilization is a significant process remain unresolved. Here, major and trace element, including platinum group elements (PGE), characterization of 40 mantle xenoliths from 13 localities is used to constrain the melt depletion, refertilization and metasomatic history of lithospheric mantle underneath the micro-continent Zealandia. Our previously published Re–Os isotopic data for a subset of these xenoliths indicate Phanerozoic to Paleoproterozoic ages and, reinterpreted with the new major and trace element data presented here, demonstrate that a large volume (>2 million km3) of lithospheric mantle with an age of 1·99 ± 0·21 Ga is present below the much younger crust of Zealandia. A peritectic melting model using moderately incompatible trace elements (e.g. Yb) in bulk-rocks demonstrates that these peridotites experienced a significant range of degrees of partial melting, between 3 and 28%. During subsolidus equilibration clinopyroxene gains significant rare earth elements (REE), which then leads to the underestimation of the degree of partial melting by ≤12% in fertile xenoliths. A new approach taking into account the effects of subsolidus re-equilibration on clinopyroxene composition effectively removes discrepancies in the calculated degree of melting and provides consistent estimates of between 4 and 29%. The estimated amount of melting is independent of the Re–Os model ages of the samples. The PGE patterns record simple melt depletion histories and the retention of primary base metal sulfides in the majority of the xenoliths. A rapid decrease in Pt/IrN observed at c. 1·0 wt % Al2O3 is a direct result of the exhaustion of sulfide in the mantle residue at c. 20–25% partial melting and the inability of Pt to form a stable alloy phase. Major elements preserve evidence for refertilization by a basaltic component that resulted in the formation of secondary clinopyroxene and low-forsterite olivine. The majority of xenoliths show the effects of cryptic metasomatic overprinting, ranging from minor to strong light REE enrichments in bulk-rocks (La/YbN = 0·16–15·9). Metasomatism is heterogeneous, with samples varying from those with weak REE enrichment and notable positive Sr and U–Th anomalies and negative Nb–Ta anomalies in clinopyroxene to those that have extremely high concentrations of REE, Th–U and Nb. Chemical compositions are consistent with a carbonatitic component contributing to the metasomatism of the lithosphere under Zealandia. Notably, the intense metasomatism of the samples did not affect the PGE budget of the peridotites as this was controlled by residual sulfides.