ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations

Background The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. Results Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. Conclusion ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

Vibrating Membrane Devices Deliver Aerosols More Efficient than Standard Devices: A Study in a Neonatal Upper Airway Model

Abstract Background: Aerosol therapy in preterm infants is challenging, as a very small proportion of the drug deposits in the lungs. Aim: Our aim was to compare efficiency of standard devices with newer, more efficient aerosol delivery devices. Methods: Using salbutamol as a drug marker, we studied two prototypes of the investigational eFlow(®) nebulizer for babies (PARI Pharma GmbH), a jet nebulizer (Intersurgical(®) Cirrus(®)), and a pressurized metered dose inhaler (pMDI; GSK) with a detergent-coated holding chamber (AeroChamber(®) MV) in the premature infant nose throat-model (PrINT-model) of a 32-week preterm infant (1,750 g). A filter or an impactor was placed below the infant model's "trachea" to capture the drug dose or particle size, respectively, that would have been deposited in the lung. Results: Lung dose (percentage of nominal dose) was 1.5%, 6.8%, and 18.0-20.6% for the jet nebulizer, pMDI-holding chamber, and investigational eFlow nebulizers, respectively (p<0.001). Jet nebulizer residue was 69.4% and 10.7-13.9% for the investigational eFlow nebulizers (p<0.001). Adding an elbow extension between the eFlow and the model significantly lowered lung dose (p<0.001). A breathing pattern with lower tidal volume decreased deposition in the PrINT-model and device residue (p<0.05), but did not decrease lung dose. Conclusions: In a model for infant aerosol inhalation, we confirmed low lung dose using jet nebulizers and pMDI-holding chambers, whereas newer, more specialized vibrating membrane devices, designed specifically for use in preterm infants, deliver up to 20 times more drug to the infant's lung.

Assessment of estrogenic exposure in brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a Swiss midland river: integrated analysis of passive samplers, wild and caged fish, and vitellogenin mRNA and protein

This field study examined the vitellogenin (VTG) biomarker response under conditions of low and fluctuating activities of environmental estrogenicity. The present study was performed on immature brown trout (Salmo trutta) exposed to the small river Luetzelmurg, which is located in the prealpine Swiss midland region and receives effluents from a single sewage treatment plant (STP). To understand better factors influencing the relationship between estrogenic exposure and VTG induction, we compared VTG levels in caged (stationary) and feral (free-ranging) fish, VTG levels in fish from up- and downstream of the STP, and two different methods for quantifying VTG (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay vs real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction), and we used passive samplers (polar organic chemical integrative sampler [POCIS]) to integrate the variable, bioaccumulative estrogenic load in the river water over time. The POCIS from the downstream site contained approximately 20-fold higher levels of bioassay-derived estrogen equivalents than the POCIS from the upstream site. In feral fish, this site difference in estrogenic exposure was reflected in VTG protein levels but not in VTG mRNA. In contrast, in caged fish, the site difference was evident only for VTG mRNA but not for VTG protein. Thus, the outcome of VTG biomarker measurements varied with the analytical detection method (protein vs mRNA) and with the exposure modus (caged vs feral). Our findings suggest that for environmental situations with low and variable estrogenic contamination, a multiple-assessment approach may be necessary for the assessment of estrogenic exposure in fish.

Percutaneous coronary interventions in Europe: prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections based on data up to 2004

AIMS: A registry mandated by the European Society of Cardiology collects data on trends in interventional cardiology within Europe. Special interest focuses on relative increases and ratios in new techniques and their distributions across Europe. We report the data through 2004 and give an overview of the development of coronary interventions since the first data collection in 1992. METHODS AND RESULTS: Questionnaires were distributed yearly to delegates of all national societies of cardiology represented in the European Society of Cardiology. The goal was to collect the case numbers of all local institutions and operators. The overall numbers of coronary angiographies increased from 1992 to 2004 from 684 000 to 2 238 000 (from 1250 to 3930 per million inhabitants). The respective numbers for percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and coronary stenting procedures increased from 184 000 to 885 000 (from 335 to 1550) and from 3000 to 770 000 (from 5 to 1350), respectively. Germany was the most active country with 712 000 angiographies (8600), 249 000 angioplasties (3000), and 200 000 stenting procedures (2400) in 2004. The indication has shifted towards acute coronary syndromes, as demonstrated by rising rates of interventions for acute myocardial infarction over the last decade. The procedures are more readily performed and perceived safer, as shown by increasing rate of "ad hoc" PCIs and decreasing need for emergency coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). In 2004, the use of drug-eluting stents continued to rise. However, an enormous variability is reported with the highest rate in Switzerland (70%). If the rate of progression remains constant until 2010 the projected number of coronary angiographies will be over three million, and the number of PCIs about 1.5 million with a stenting rate of almost 100%. CONCLUSION: Interventional cardiology in Europe is ever expanding. New coronary revascularization procedures, alternative or complementary to balloon angioplasty, have come and gone. Only stenting has stood the test of time and matured to the default technique. Facilitated access to PCI, more complete and earlier detection of coronary artery disease promise continued growth of the procedure despite the uncontested success of prevention.

Influence of an electromagnetic field on high dilutions measured by ultraviolet light spectroscopy

Background: High dilutions of various starting materials, e.g. copper sulfate, Hypericum perforatum and sulfur, showed significant differences from controls and amongst different dilution levels in ultraviolet light (UV) transmission [1,2]. Exposure of high dilutions to external physical factors such as UV light or elevated temperature (37°C) also yielded significantly different UV transmissions compared to unexposed dilutions [2,3]. In a study with highland frogs it was shown that animals incubated with thyroxine 30c but not with thyroxine 30c exposed to electromagnetic fields (EMFs) of a microwave oven or mobile phone metamorphosed more slowly than control animals [4]. Aims: The aim was to test whether the EMF of a mobile phone influences the UV absorbance of dilutions of quartz and Atropa belladonna (AB). Methodology: Commercially available dilutions of 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x in H2O and 19% ethanol of quartz (SiO2) and of 4x, 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x in H2O and 19% ethanol of AB were used in the experiments (Weleda AG, Arlesheim, Switzerland). Four samples of each dilution were exposed to the EMF of a mobile phone (Philips, Savvy Dual Band) at 900 MHz with an output of 2 W for 3 h, while control samples (4 of each dilution) were kept in a separate room. Absorbance of the samples in the UV range (from 190 to 340 nm) was measured in a randomized order with a Shimadzu UV-1800 spectrophotometer equipped with an auto sampler. In total 5 separate measurement days will be carried out for quartz and for AB dilutions. The average absorbance from 200 to 340 nm and from 200 to 240 nm was compared among dilution levels using a Kruskal-Wallis test and between exposed and unexposed samples using a Mann-Whitney-U test. Results: Preliminary results after 2 measurement days indicated that for quartz the absorbance of the various dilution levels was different from each other (except 12x and 15x), and that samples exposed to an EMF did not show a difference in UV absorbance from unexposed samples. Preliminary results after one measurement day indicated that for AB the absorbance of the various dilution levels was different from each other. The samples exposed to an EMF did not show a difference in UV absorbance from unexposed samples (except 4x in the range from 200 – 240 nm). Conclusions: These results suggest that exposure of high dilutions of quartz and AB to a mobile phone EMF as used here does not alter UV absorbance of these dilutions. The final results will show whether this holds true.

Comparison of globules prepared from high dilutions of various starting materials by ultraviolet light spectroscopy

Background: High and ultra-high dilutions of various starting materials, e.g. copper sulfate, Hypericum perforatum and sulfur, showed significant differences in ultraviolet light (UV) transmission from controls and amongst different dilution levels [1,2]. Verum and placebo globules of Aconitum napellus 30c or calcium carbonate/quercus e cortice 6x from the same packs as used in previous clinical trials and dissolved in water could be distinguished by UV spectroscopy [3]. However, it was unclear whether the differences in UV absorbance originated from specific characteristics of the starting materials, from differences in the production of verum and placebo globules, and/or other unknown interference factors. Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate whether globules produced with high and ultra-high dilutions (6x, 12x, 30c, 200c, 200CF (centesimal discontinuous fluxion), 10,000CF) of various starting materials (Aconitum napellus, Atropa belladonna, phosphorus, sulfur, Apis mellifica, quartz) could be distinguished by UV spectroscopy. Methodology: The globules were specially produced for this study by Spagyros AG (Gümligen, Switzerland) and differed only in the starting materials of the dilutions (but not in the batch of globules or ethanol used). Globules were dissolved in water at 10 mg/ml, in quadruplicates, approximately 22 h prior to the measurements. Absorbance of the samples in the UV range (from 190 to 340 nm) was measured in a randomized order with a Shimadzu double beam UV-1800 spectrophotometer equipped with an auto sampler. Samples of each starting material were prepared and measured on 5 independent days. The daily variations of the spectrophotometer as well as the drift during the measurements were corrected for. The average absorbance from 200 to 340 nm was compared among various starting materials within equal dilution levels using a Kruskal-Wallis test. Results: Statistically significant differences were found among 30c (Figure 1), 200c and 200CF dilutions of the various starting materials. No differences were found among 6x, 12x and 10,000CF dilutions. Conclusions: Globules prepared from high dilutions of various starting materials may show significantly different UV absorbance when dissolved in water. References [1] Wolf U, Wolf M, Heusser P, Thurneysen A, Baumgartner S. Homeopathic preparations of quartz, sulfur and copper sulfate assessed by UV-spectroscopy. Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2011;2011:692798. [2] Klein SD, Sandig A, Baumgartner S, Wolf U. Differences in median ultraviolet light transmissions of serial homeopathic dilutions of copper sulfate, Hypericum perforatum, and sulfur. Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2013;2013:370609. [3] Klein SD, Wolf U. Investigating homeopathic verum and placebo globules with ultraviolet spectroscopy. Forsch Komplementmed. 2013, accepted.

Improved sampling for gradient-domain metropolis light transport

We present a generalized framework for gradient-domain Metropolis rendering, and introduce three techniques to reduce sampling artifacts and variance. The first one is a heuristic weighting strategy that combines several sampling techniques to avoid outliers. The second one is an improved mapping to generate offset paths required for computing gradients. Here we leverage the properties of manifold walks in path space to cancel out singularities. Finally, the third technique introduces generalized screen space gradient kernels. This approach aligns the gradient kernels with image structures such as texture edges and geometric discontinuities to obtain sparser gradients than with the conventional gradient kernel. We implement our framework on top of an existing Metropolis sampler, and we demonstrate significant improvements in visual and numerical quality of our results compared to previous work.

Clinical impact of gastrointestinal bleeding in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions.

BACKGROUND The risk factors and clinical sequelae of gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in the current era of drug-eluting stents, prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy, and potent P2Y12 inhibitors are not well established. We determined the frequency, predictors, and clinical impact of GIB after percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) in a contemporary cohort of consecutive patients treated with unrestricted use of drug-eluting stents. METHODS AND RESULTS Between 2009 and 2012, all consecutive patients undergoing PCI were prospectively included in the Bern PCI Registry. Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC) GIB and cardiovascular outcomes were recorded within 1 year of follow-up. Among 6212 patients, 84.1% received new-generation drug-eluting stents and 19.5% received prasugrel. At 1 year, GIB had occurred in 65 patients (1.04%); 70.8% of all events and 84.4% of BARC ≥3B events were recorded >30 days after PCI. The majority of events (64.4%) were related to upper GIB with a more delayed time course compared with lower GIB. Increasing age, previous GIB, history of malignancy, smoking, and triple antithrombotic therapy (ie, oral anticoagulation plus dual antiplatelet therapy) were independent predictors of GIB in multivariable analysis. GIB was associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.67-6.92; P=0.001) and the composite of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.99-7.07; P<0.001) and was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality during 1 year. CONCLUSIONS Among unselected patients undergoing PCI, GIB has a profound effect on prognosis. Triple antithrombotic therapy emerged as the single drug-related predictor of GIB in addition to patient-related risk factors within 1 year of PCI. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02241291.