Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Daily and seasonal thermal stresses in tilings: a field survey combined with numeric modeling

This study investigates thermally induced tensile stresses in ceramic tilings. Daily and seasonal thermal cycles, as well as, rare but extreme events, such as a hail-storm striking a heated terrace tiling, were studied in the field and by numerical modeling investigations. The field surveys delivered temperature– time diagrams and temperature profiles across tiling systems. These data were taken as input parameters for modeling the stress distribution in the tiling system in order to detect potential sites for material failure. Dependent on the thermal scenario (e.g., slow heating of the entire structure during morning and afternoon, or a rapid cooling of the tiles by a rain storm) the modeling indicates specific locations with high tensile stresses. Typically regions along the rim of the tiling field showed stresses, which can become critical with respect to the adhesion strength. Over the years, ongoing cycles of thermal expansion–contraction result in material fatigue promoting the propagation of cracks. However, the installation of flexible waterproofing membranes (applied between substrate and tile adhesive) represents an efficient technical innovation to reduce such crack propagation as confirmed by both numerical modeling results and microstructural studies on real systems.

Influence of catchment quality and altitude on the water and sediment composition of 68 small lakes in Central Europe

68 lakes (63 Swiss, 2 French and 3 Italian) located in an altitudinal range between 334 and 2339m spanning a wide range of land-use have been investigated. The aim of the study was to discuss influences of geographic location, vegetation and land-use in the catchment area on the water and sediment chemistry of small lakes. Detailed quantitative description of land-use, vegetation, and climate in the watershed of all lakes was established. Surface and bottom water samples collected from each lake were analyzed for major ions and nutrients. Correlations were interpreted using linear regression analysis. Chemical parameters of water and sediment reflect the characteristics of the catchment areas. All lakes were alkaline since they were situated on calcareous bedrock. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus strongly increase with increasing agricultural land-use. Na and K, however, are positively correlated with the amount of urbanization within the catchment area. These elements as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Mg, Ca, and alkalinity, increase when the catchment is urbanized or used for agriculture. Total nitrogen and organic carbon in the sediments decrease distinctly if large parts of the catchment consist of bare land. No correlations between sediment composition and maximum water depth or altitude of the lakes were found.¶Striking differences in the water compositions of lakes above and below approximately 700 m of altitude were observed. Concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate, total phosphorus, DOC, Na, K, Mg, Ca, and alkalinity are distinctly higher in most lakes below 700 m than above, and the pH of the bottom waters of these lakes is generally lower. Estimates of total nitrogen concentrations, even in remote areas, indicate that precipitation is responsible for increased background concentrations. At lower altitudes nitrogen concentrations in lakes is explained by the nitrogen loaded rain from urban areas deposited on the catchment, and with high percentages of agricultural land-use in the watershed.

A Communication Platform for Tele-monitoring and Tele-management of Type 1 Diabetes

Type 1 diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease characterized by blood glucose levels out of normal range due to inability of insulin production. This dysfunction leads to many short- and long-term complications. In this paper, a system for tele-monitoring and tele-management of Type 1 diabetes patients is proposed, aiming at reducing the risk of diabetes complications and improving quality of life. The system integrates Wireless Personal Area Networks (WPAN), mobile infrastructure, and Internet technology along with commercially available and novel glucose measurement devices, advanced modeling techniques, and tools for the intelligent processing of the available diabetes patients information. The integration of the above technologies enables intensive monitoring of blood glucose levels, treatment optimisation, continuous medical care, and improvement of quality of life for Type 1 diabetes patients, without restrictions in everyday life activities.

Geomorphology and evolution of the late Pleistocene to Holocene fluvial system in the south-eastern Llanos de Moxos, Bolivian Amazon

In the Bolivian Amazon several paleochannel generations are preserved. Their wide spectrum of morphologies clearly provides crucial information on the type and magnitude of geomorphic and hydrological changes within the drainage network of the Andean foreland. Therefore, in this study we mapped geomorphological characteristics of paleochannels, and applied radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating. Seven paleochannel generations are identified. Significant changes in sinuosity, channel widths and river pattern are observed for the successive paleochannel generations. Our results clearly reflect at least three different geomorphic and hydrological periods in the evolution of the fluvial system since the late Pleistocene. Changes in discharge and sediment load may be controlled by combinations of two interrelated mechanisms: (i) spatial changes and re-organizations of the drainage network in the upper catchment, and/or (ii) climate changes with their associated local to catchment-scale modifications in vegetation cover, and changes in discharge, inundation frequencies and magnitudes, which have likely affected the evolution of the fluvial system in the Llanos de Moxos. In summary, our study has revealed the enormous potential which geomorphic mapping and analysis combined with luminescence based chronologies hold for the reconstruction of the late Pleistocene to recent fluvial system in a large portion of Amazonia.

Simulating Carbon Stocks and Fluxes of an African Tropical Montane Forest with an Individual-Based Forest Model

Tropical forests are carbon-dense and highly productive ecosystems. Consequently, they play an important role in the global carbon cycle. In the present study we used an individual-based forest model (FORMIND) to analyze the carbon balances of a tropical forest. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration, and competition. Model parameters were calibrated using forest inventory data from a tropical forest at Mt. Kilimanjaro. The simulation results showed that the model successfully reproduces important characteristics of tropical forests (aboveground biomass, stem size distribution and leaf area index). The estimated aboveground biomass (385 t/ha) is comparable to biomass values in the Amazon and other tropical forests in Africa. The simulated forest reveals a gross primary production of 24 tcha-1yr-1. Modeling above- and belowground carbon stocks, we analyzed the carbon balance of the investigated tropical forest. The simulated carbon balance of this old-growth forest is zero on average. This study provides an example of how forest models can be used in combination with forest inventory data to investigate forest structure and local carbon balances.

Glacier advances in northeastern Turkey before and during the global Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract Our study in the Başyayla Valley in northeastern Anatolia showed evidence of four glacier advances that built terminal and lateral moraines. Surface exposure dating of boulders on these moraines showed that the Maximum Ice Extent (MIE) was asynchronous with the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 22.1 ± 4.3 thousand years; ka). The local {MIE} took place at least 57.0 ± 3.5 ka ago. The extent of the Başyayla Glacier during this advance is not known exactly because the boulders are only preserved on a lateral moraine. The next advance was prior to 41.5 ± 2.5 ka, and it descended down the valley to approximately 2320 m above sea level (m a.s.l.), with a glacier length of 5.3 km. During the early global LGM, the Başyayla Glacier extended for a distance of 4.9 km down to approx. 2430 m a.s.l. The last recorded advance occurred during the global LGM. This extension was 0.7 km smaller than the local {MIE} and its terminus reached 2490 m a.s.l. only. The exposure ages of boulders in a retreat position at an altitude of approx. 3045 m a.s.l. indicate that the valley has remained ice-free since the Lateglacial period. Therefore, the Lateglacial extent was limited to the cirque system in the uppermost part of the catchment. Furthermore, Holocene glacier oscillations seem to be either absent or restricted to solifluction in the whole catchment and to rock glacier movements in the southern tributary of the Başyayla Valley system.

Automatic multi-resolution shape modeling of multi-organ structures.

Point Distribution Models (PDM) are among the most popular shape description techniques and their usefulness has been demonstrated in a wide variety of medical imaging applications. However, to adequately characterize the underlying modeled population it is essential to have a representative number of training samples, which is not always possible. This problem is especially relevant as the complexity of the modeled structure increases, being the modeling of ensembles of multiple 3D organs one of the most challenging cases. In this paper, we introduce a new GEneralized Multi-resolution PDM (GEM-PDM) in the context of multi-organ analysis able to efficiently characterize the different inter-object relations, as well as the particular locality of each object separately. Importantly, unlike previous approaches, the configuration of the algorithm is automated thanks to a new agglomerative landmark clustering method proposed here, which equally allows us to identify smaller anatomically significant regions within organs. The significant advantage of the GEM-PDM method over two previous approaches (PDM and hierarchical PDM) in terms of shape modeling accuracy and robustness to noise, has been successfully verified for two different databases of sets of multiple organs: six subcortical brain structures, and seven abdominal organs. Finally, we propose the integration of the new shape modeling framework into an active shape-model-based segmentation algorithm. The resulting algorithm, named GEMA, provides a better overall performance than the two classical approaches tested, ASM, and hierarchical ASM, when applied to the segmentation of 3D brain MRI.

Reconciling Precipitation with Runoff: Observed Hydrological Change in the Midlatitudes

Century-long observed gridded land precipitation datasets are a cornerstone of hydrometeorological research. But recent work has suggested that observed Northern Hemisphere midlatitude (NHML) land mean precipitation does not show evidence of an expected negative response to mid-twentieth-century aerosol forcing. Utilizing observed river discharges, the observed runoff is calculated and compared with observed land precipitation. The results show a near-zero twentieth-century trendinobserved NHML landmean runoff,in contrast to the significant positive trend in observed NHML land mean precipitation. However, precipitation and runoff share common interannual and decadal variability. An obvious split, or breakpoint, is found in the NHML land mean runoff–precipitation relationship in the 1930s. Using runoff simulated by six land surface models (LSMs), which are driven by the observed precipitation dataset, such breakpoints are absent. These findings support previous hypotheses that inhomogeneities exist in the early-twentieth-century NHML land mean precipitation record. Adjusting the observed precipitation record according to the observed runoff record largely accounts for the departure of the observed precipitation response from that predicted given the real-world aerosol forcing estimate, more than halving the discrepancy from about 6 to around 2 W m 22. Consideration of complementary observed runoff adds support to the suggestion that NHML-wide early-twentieth-century precipitation observations are unsuitable for climate change studies. The agreement between precipitation and runoff over Europe, however, is excellent, supporting the use of whole-twentieth-century observed precipitation datasets here.

Paleolimnological evidence for increased landslide activity due to forest clearing and land-use since 3600 cal BP in the western Swiss Alps

Schwarzsee is located in the western Swiss Alps, in a region that has been affected by numerous landslides during the Holocene, as evidenced by geological surveys. Lacustrine sediments were cored to a depth of 13 m. The vegetation history of the lake's catchment was reconstructed and investigated to identify possible impacts on slope stability. The pollen analyses record development of forest cover during the middle and late Holocene, and provide strong evidence for regional anthropogenic influence such as forest clearing and agricultural activity. Vegetation change is characterized by continuous landscape denudation that begins at ca. 4300 cal. yrs BP, with five distinct pulses of increased deforestation, at 3650, 2700, 1500, 900, and 450 cal. yrs BP. Each pulse can be attributed to increased human impact, recorded by the appearance or increase of specific anthropogenic indicator plant taxa. These periods of intensified deforestation also appear to be correlated with increased landslide activity in the lake's catchment and increased turbidite frequency in the sediment record. Therefore, this study gives new evidence for a strong influence of vegetation changes on slope stability during the middle and late Holocene in the western Swiss Alps, and may be used as a case study for anthropogenically induced landslide activity.