Synoptic Analysis of the New York March 1888 Blizzard

The meteorological circumstances that led to the Blizzard of March 1888 that hit New York are analysed in Version 2 of the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR). The potential of this data set for studying historical extreme events has not yet been fully explored. A detailed analysis of 20CR data alongside other data sources (including historical instrumental data and weather maps) for historical extremes such as the March 1888 blizzard may give insights into the limitations of 20CR. We find that 20CR reproduces the circulation pattern as well as the temperature development very well. Regarding the absolute values of variables such as snow fall or minimum and maximum surface pressure, there is anunderestimation of the observed extremes, which may be due to the low spatial resolution of 20CR and the fact that only the ensemble mean is considered. Despite this drawback, the dataset allows us to gain new information due to its complete spatial and temporal coverage.

Evaluation of multidimensional geriatric assessment as a predictor of mortality and cardiovascular events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation

This study evaluated Multidimensional Geriatric Assessment (MGA) as predictor of mortality and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebral events (MACCE) after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI).

Adverse events to antiretrovirals in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: effect on mortality and treatment modification

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) decreases morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients but is associated with considerable adverse events (AEs). METHODS: We examined the effect of AEs to ART on mortality, treatment modifications and drop-out in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. A cross-sectional evaluation of prevalence of 13 clinical and 11 laboratory parameters was performed in 1999 in 1,078 patients on ART. AEs were defined as abnormalities probably or certainly related to ART. A score including the number and severity of AEs was defined. The subsequent progression to death, drop-out and treatment modification due to intolerance were evaluated according to the baseline AE score and characteristics of individual AEs. RESULTS: Of the 1,078 patients, laboratory AEs were reported in 23% and clinical AEs in 45%. During a median follow up of 5.9 years, laboratory AEs were associated with higher mortality with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.3 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.5; P < 0.001) per score point. For clinical AEs no significant association with increased mortality was found. In contrast, an increasing score for clinical AEs (HR 1.11,95% CI 1.04-1.18; P = 0.002), but not for laboratory AEs (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.17; P = 0.17), was associated with antiretroviral treatment modification. AEs were not associated with a higher drop-out rate. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of laboratory AEs to antiretroviral drugs is associated with a higher mortality. Physicians seem to change treatments to relieve clinical symptoms, while accepting laboratory AEs. Minimizing laboratory drug toxicity seems warranted and its influence on survival should be further evaluated.

Variable impact on mortality of AIDS-defining events diagnosed during combination antiretroviral therapy: not all AIDS-defining conditions are created equal

BACKGROUND: The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00]). CONCLUSIONS: In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

The J-curve in HIV: low and moderate alcohol intake predicts mortality but not the occurrence of major cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVES In HIV-negative populations light to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality than alcohol abstention. Whether the same holds true for HIV-infected individuals has not been evaluated in detail. DESIGN Cohort study METHODS:: Adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with follow-up after August 2005 were included. We categorized alcohol consumption into: abstention, low (1-9 g/d), moderate (10-29 g/d in females and 10-39g/d in men) and high alcohol intake. Cox proportional hazards models were used to describe the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease free survival (combined endpoint) as well as cardiovascular disease events (CADE) and overall survival. Baseline and time-updated risk factors for CADE were included in the models. RESULTS Among 9,741 individuals included, there were 788 events of major CADE or death during 46,719 years of follow-up, corresponding to an incidence of 1.69 events/100 person-years. Follow-up according to alcohol consumption level was 51% abstention, 20% low, 23% moderate and 6% high intake. As compared to abstention, low (hazard ratio 0.79, 95% confidence interval 0.63-0.98) and moderate alcohol intake (0.78, 0.64-0.95) were associated with a lower incidence of the combined endpoint. There was no significant association between alcohol consumption and CADE. CONCLUSIONS Compared to abstention, low and moderate alcohol intake were associated with a better CADE-free survival. However, this result was mainly driven by mortality and the specific impact of drinking patterns and type of alcoholic beverage on this outcome remains to be determined.

Clinical outcome and predictors for adverse events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation with the use of different devices and access routes

Background Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a treatment option for high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis. Previous reports focused on a single device or access site, whereas little is known of the combined use of different devices and access sites as selected by the heart team. The purpose of this study is to investigate clinical outcomes of TAVI using different devices and access sites. Methods A consecutive cohort of 200 patients underwent TAVI with the Medtronic CoreValve Revalving system (Medtronic Core Valve LLC, Irvine, CA; n = 130) or the Edwards SAPIEN valve (Edwards Lifesciences LLC, Irvine, CA; n = 70) implanted by either the transfemoral or transapical access route. Results Device success and procedure success were 99% and 95%, respectively, without differences between devices and access site. All-cause mortality was 7.5% at 30 days, with no differences between valve types or access sites. Using multivariable analysis, low body mass index (<20 kg/m2) (odds ratio [OR] 6.6, 95% CI 1.5-29.5) and previous stroke (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.2-16.8) were independent risk factors for short-term mortality. The VARC-defined combined safety end point occurred in 18% of patients and was driven by major access site complications (8.0%), life-threatening bleeding (8.5%) or severe renal failure (4.5%). Transapical access emerged as independent predictor of adverse outcome for the Valve Academic Research Consortium–combined safety end point (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5-7.1). Conclusion A heart team–based selection of devices and access site among patients undergoing TAVI resulted in high device and procedural success. Low body mass index and history of previous stroke were independent predictors of mortality. Transapical access emerged as a risk factor for the Valve Academic Research Consortium–combined safety end point.

Carotid plaque and intima-media thickness and the incidence of ischemic events in patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease

We aimed to evaluate whether carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) or the presence of plaque can confer additional predictive value of future cardiovascular (CV) ischemic events in patients with pre-existing atherosclerotic vascular disease. We identified 2317 patients enrolled in the REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health (REACH) registry who had atherosclerotic vascular disease and baseline CIMT measurements. The entire range of CIMT was divided into quartiles and the fourth quartile (? 1.5 mm) was defined as carotid plaque. Mean ± standard deviation baseline CIMT was 1.31 ± 0.65 mm. Associated CV ischemic events and vascular-related hospitalizations were evaluated over a 2-year follow-up. There was a positive increase in adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality (p = 0.04 for trend) and the quadruple endpoint (CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, hospitalization for CV events) with increasing quartiles of CIMT (p = 0.0008 for trend), which was mainly driven by the fourth quartile (carotid plaque). HRs for all-cause mortality, CV death, CV death/MI/stroke and the quadruple endpoint comparing the highest (carotid plaque) with the lowest CIMT quartile were 2.09 (95% CI, 1.07-4.10; p = 0.03); 2.49 (1.10-5.67; p = 0.03); 1.71 (1.10-2.67; p = 0.02); and 1.73 (1.31-2.27; p = 0.0001). In conclusion, our analyses suggest that the presence of carotid plaque, rather than the thickness of intima-media, appears to be associated with increased risk of CV morbidity and mortality, but confirmation of these findings in other population and prospective studies is required.

Adverse cardiac events during catecholamine vasopressor therapy: a prospective observational study

PURPOSE: To determine the incidence of and risk factors for adverse cardiac events during catecholamine vasopressor therapy in surgical intensive care unit patients with cardiovascular failure. METHODS: The occurrence of any of seven predefined adverse cardiac events (prolonged elevated heart rate, tachyarrhythmia, myocardial cell damage, acute cardiac arrest or death, pulmonary hypertension-induced right heart dysfunction, reduction of systemic blood flow) was prospectively recorded during catecholamine vasopressor therapy lasting at least 12 h. RESULTS: Fifty-four of 112 study patients developed a total of 114 adverse cardiac events, an incidence of 48.2 % (95 % CI, 38.8-57.6 %). New-onset tachyarrhythmia (49.1 %), prolonged elevated heart rate (23.7 %), and myocardial cell damage (17.5 %) occurred most frequently. Aside from chronic liver diseases, factors independently associated with the occurrence of adverse cardiac events included need for renal replacement therapy, disease severity (assessed by the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II), number of catecholamine vasopressors (OR, 1.73; 95 % CI, 1.08-2.77; p = 0.02) and duration of catecholamine vasopressor therapy (OR, 1.01; 95 % CI, 1-1.01; p = 0.002). Patients developing adverse cardiac events were on catecholamine vasopressors (p < 0.001) and mechanical ventilation (p < 0.001) for longer and had longer intensive care unit stays (p < 0.001) and greater mortality (25.9 vs. 1.7 %; p < 0.001) than patients who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Adverse cardiac events occurred in 48.2 % of surgical intensive care unit patients with cardiovascular failure and were related to morbidity and mortality. The extent and duration of catecholamine vasopressor therapy were independently associated with and may contribute to the pathogenesis of adverse cardiac events.

Implantation of the biodegradable polymer biolimus-eluting stent in patients with high SYNTAX score is associated with decreased cardiac mortality compared to a permanent polymer sirolimus-eluting stent: two year follow-up results from the "all-comers" LEADERS trial

Background: The SYNTAX score (SXscore) has been shown to be an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Methods and results: The SXscore was prospectively collected in 1,397 of the 1,707 patients enrolled in the “all-comers” LEADERS trial (patients post-surgical revascularisation were excluded). Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at two-year follow-up, according to one of three SXscore tertiles: SXlow ≤8 (n=464), 816 (n=461). At two-year follow-up the rate of major adverse cardiovascular events was 18.4%, 12.0% and 9.4% in the SXhigh, SXmid, and SXlow tertile, respectively (HR 1.45; CI 1.21-1.74; p<0.01). There was a significantly higher rate of cardiac death in patients in the highest SXscore tertile (7% SXhigh versus 2.4% SXmid versus 1.8% SXlow; HR 2.22; CI 1.5-3.27; p<0.001). Within the SXhigh tertile the rate of cardiac death was significantly lower in patients treated with the biolimus-eluting stent compared with the sirolimus-eluting stent (4.7% versus 9.6%, HR 0.48; CI 0.23-0.99; p=0.046). Conclusions: The SXscore when applied to an “all-comers” patient population allows for prospective risk stratification of patients undergoing PCI up to two years follow-up. In addition, the SXscore appears to separate the performance of devices in high risk patient groups.

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality

Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts.

Regular treatment with salmeterol and inhaled steroids for chronic asthma: serious adverse events

Epidemiological evidence has suggested a link between beta2-agonists and increased asthma mortality. There has been much debate about possible causal links for this association, and whether regular (daily) long-acting beta2-agonists are safe. This is an updated systematic review.

Six-month angiographic follow-up of the PAS-Port II clinical trial

BACKGROUND: The PAS-Port device (Cardica, Redwood City, CA) allows the rapid deployment of a clampless proximal anastomosis between a vein graft and the aorta. METHODS: Fifty-four patients awaiting elective coronary artery bypass graft surgery were enrolled. Outcome variables were intraoperative device performance, early and 6- month angiographic graft patency, and 12-month clinical follow-up. RESULTS: Sixty-three PAS-Port devices were deployed in 54 patients. Two deployments were unsuccessful. There were no reoperations for bleeding. Two patients died of causes unrelated to the device. Patency evaluation at discharge was performed by angiogram on 49 implants and computed tomography in 2 implants (86% follow-up). At discharge, all evaluated grafts were patent (100%) and rated Fitzgibbon A. At 6-month follow-up, there was no additional mortality; 47 implants (88% follow-up) were evaluated by angiography (Fitzgibbon O [n = 1], Fitzgibbon B [n = 1], and Fitzgibbon A [n = 45]) and 5 by computed tomography. All grafts but 1 were patent (98.1%). At 12 months, 2 additional patients died of causes unrelated to the PAS-Port implant. Forty-six of 50 alive patients (95.8%) were followed up without any reports of device-related major adverse cardiac events. CONCLUSIONS: Discharge (100%) and 6-month patency (98%) are excellent; patency and 12 months' clinical follow-up compares favorably with data from historical hand-sewn controls. The PAS-Port system safely allows the clampless creation of a proximal anastomosis.

Association of arterial blood pressure and vasopressor load with septic shock mortality: a post hoc analysis of a multicenter trial

INTRODUCTION: It is unclear to which level mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) should be increased during septic shock in order to improve outcome. In this study we investigated the association between MAP values of 70 mmHg or higher, vasopressor load, 28-day mortality and disease-related events in septic shock. METHODS: This is a post hoc analysis of data of the control group of a multicenter trial and includes 290 septic shock patients in whom a mean MAP > or = 70 mmHg could be maintained during shock. Demographic and clinical data, MAP, vasopressor requirements during the shock period, disease-related events and 28-day mortality were documented. Logistic regression models adjusted for the geographic region of the study center, age, presence of chronic arterial hypertension, simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II and the mean vasopressor load during the shock period was calculated to investigate the association between MAP or MAP quartiles > or = 70 mmHg and mortality or the frequency and occurrence of disease-related events. RESULTS: There was no association between MAP or MAP quartiles and mortality or the occurrence of disease-related events. These associations were not influenced by age or pre-existent arterial hypertension (all P > 0.05). The mean vasopressor load was associated with mortality (relative risk (RR), 1.83; confidence interval (CI) 95%, 1.4-2.38; P < 0.001), the number of disease-related events (P < 0.001) and the occurrence of acute circulatory failure (RR, 1.64; CI 95%, 1.28-2.11; P < 0.001), metabolic acidosis (RR, 1.79; CI 95%, 1.38-2.32; P < 0.001), renal failure (RR, 1.49; CI 95%, 1.17-1.89; P = 0.001) and thrombocytopenia (RR, 1.33; CI 95%, 1.06-1.68; P = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: MAP levels of 70 mmHg or higher do not appear to be associated with improved survival in septic shock. Elevating MAP >70 mmHg by augmenting vasopressor dosages may increase mortality. Future trials are needed to identify the lowest acceptable MAP level to ensure tissue perfusion and avoid unnecessary high catecholamine infusions.

Rationale and design of a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study of terutroban 30 mg/day versus aspirin 100 mg/day in stroke patients: the prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events of ischemic origin with terutroban in patients with a history of ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (PERFORM) study

BACKGROUND: Ischemic stroke is the leading cause of mortality worldwide and a major contributor to neurological disability and dementia. Terutroban is a specific TP receptor antagonist with antithrombotic, antivasoconstrictive, and antiatherosclerotic properties, which may be of interest for the secondary prevention of ischemic stroke. This article describes the rationale and design of the Prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular Events of ischemic origin with teRutroban in patients with a history oF ischemic strOke or tRansient ischeMic Attack (PERFORM) Study, which aims to demonstrate the superiority of the efficacy of terutroban versus aspirin in secondary prevention of cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. METHODS AND RESULTS: The PERFORM Study is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study being carried out in 802 centers in 46 countries. The study population includes patients aged > or =55 years, having suffered an ischemic stroke (< or =3 months) or a transient ischemic attack (< or =8 days). Participants are randomly allocated to terutroban (30 mg/day) or aspirin (100 mg/day). The primary efficacy endpoint is a composite of ischemic stroke (fatal or nonfatal), myocardial infarction (fatal or nonfatal), or other vascular death (excluding hemorrhagic death of any origin). Safety is being evaluated by assessing hemorrhagic events. Follow-up is expected to last for 2-4 years. Assuming a relative risk reduction of 13%, the expected number of primary events is 2,340. To obtain statistical power of 90%, this requires inclusion of at least 18,000 patients in this event-driven trial. The first patient was randomized in February 2006. CONCLUSIONS: The PERFORM Study will explore the benefits and safety of terutroban in secondary cardiovascular prevention after a cerebral ischemic event.