Higher order elicitability and Osband’s principle

A statistical functional, such as the mean or the median, is called elicitable if there is a scoring function or loss function such that the correct forecast of the functional is the unique minimizer of the expected score. Such scoring functions are called strictly consistent for the functional. The elicitability of a functional opens the possibility to compare competing forecasts and to rank them in terms of their realized scores. In this paper, we explore the notion of elicitability for multi-dimensional functionals and give both necessary and sufficient conditions for strictly consistent scoring functions. We cover the case of functionals with elicitable components, but we also show that one-dimensional functionals that are not elicitable can be a component of a higher order elicitable functional. In the case of the variance, this is a known result. However, an important result of this paper is that spectral risk measures with a spectral measure with finite support are jointly elicitable if one adds the “correct” quantiles. A direct consequence of applied interest is that the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) is jointly elicitable under mild conditions that are usually fulfilled in risk management applications.

A triplet spike-timing–dependent plasticity model generalizes the Bienenstock–Cooper–Munro rule to higher-order spatiotemporal correlations

Synaptic strength depresses for low and potentiates for high activation of the postsynaptic neuron. This feature is a key property of the Bienenstock–Cooper–Munro (BCM) synaptic learning rule, which has been shown to maximize the selectivity of the postsynaptic neuron, and thereby offers a possible explanation for experience-dependent cortical plasticity such as orientation selectivity. However, the BCM framework is rate-based and a significant amount of recent work has shown that synaptic plasticity also depends on the precise timing of presynaptic and postsynaptic spikes. Here we consider a triplet model of spike-timing–dependent plasticity (STDP) that depends on the interactions of three precisely timed spikes. Triplet STDP has been shown to describe plasticity experiments that the classical STDP rule, based on pairs of spikes, has failed to capture. In the case of rate-based patterns, we show a tight correspondence between the triplet STDP rule and the BCM rule. We analytically demonstrate the selectivity property of the triplet STDP rule for orthogonal inputs and perform numerical simulations for nonorthogonal inputs. Moreover, in contrast to BCM, we show that triplet STDP can also induce selectivity for input patterns consisting of higher-order spatiotemporal correlations, which exist in natural stimuli and have been measured in the brain. We show that this sensitivity to higher-order correlations can be used to develop direction and speed selectivity.

Sex Differences in Semantic Processing: Event-Related Brain Potentials Distinguish between Lower and Higher Order Semantic Analysis during Word Reading

Behavioral studies suggest that women and men differ in the strategic elaboration of verbally encoded information especially in the absence of external task demand. However, measuring such covert processing requires other than behavioral data. The present study used event-related potentials to compare sexes in lower and higher order semantic processing during the passive reading of semantically related and unrelated word pairs. Women and men showed the same early context effect in the P1-N1 transition period. This finding indicates that the initial lexical-semantic access is similar in men and women. In contrast, sexes differed in higher order semantic processing. Women showed an earlier and longer lasting context effect in the N400 accompanied by larger signal strength in temporal networks similarly recruited by men and women. The results suggest that women spontaneously conduct a deeper semantic analysis. This leads to faster processing of related words in the active neural networks as reflected in a shorter stability of the N400 map in women. Taken together, the findings demonstrate that there is a selective sex difference in the controlled semantic analysis during passive word reading that is not reflected in different functional organization but in the depth of processing.

Remarks on higher-order hadronic corrections to the muon g-2

Recently, it was shown that insertions of hadronic vacuum polarization at O(α4) generate non-negligible effects in the calculation of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. This result raises the question if other hadronic diagrams at this order might become relevant for the next round of g−2 measurements as well. In this note we show that a potentially enhanced such contribution, hadronic light-by-light scattering in combination with electron vacuum polarization, is already sufficiently suppressed.

Higher order parametric excitation modes for spaceborne quadrupole mass spectrometers

This paper describes a technique to significantly improve upon the mass peak shape and mass resolution of spaceborne quadrupolemass spectrometers (QMSs) through higher order auxiliary excitation of the quadrupole field. Using a novel multiresonant tank circuit, additional frequency components can be used to drive modulating voltages on the quadrupole rods in a practical manner, suitable for both improved commercial applications and spaceflight instruments. Auxiliary excitation at frequencies near twice that of the fundamental quadrupole RF frequency provides the advantages of previously studied parametric excitation techniques, but with the added benefit of increased sensed excitation amplitude dynamic range and the ability to operate voltage scan lines through the center of upper stability islands. Using a field programmable gate array, the amplitudes and frequencies of all QMS signals are digitally generated and managed, providing a robust and stable voltage control system. These techniques are experimentally verified through an interface with a commercial Pfeiffer QMG422 quadrupole rod system. When operating through the center of a stability island formed from higher order auxiliary excitation, approximately 50% and 400% improvements in 1% mass resolution and peak stability were measured, respectively, when compared with traditional QMS operation. Although tested with a circular rod system, the presented techniques have the potential to improve the performance of both circular and hyperbolic rod geometry QMS sensors.

Comparing the performance of hyperbolic and circular rod quadrupole mass spectrometers with applied higher order auxiliary excitation

This work applies higher order auxiliary excitation techniques to two types of quadrupole mass spectrometers (QMSs): commercial systems and spaceborne instruments. The operational settings of a circular rod geometry commercial system and an engineering test-bed for a hyperbolic rod geometry spaceborne instrument were matched, with the relative performance of each sensor characterized with and without applied excitation using isotopic measurements of Kr+. Each instrument was operated at the limit of the test electronics to determine the effect of auxiliary excitation on extending instrument capabilities. For the circular rod sensor, with applied excitation, a doubling of the mass resolution at 1% of peak transmission resulted from the elimination of the low-mass side peak tail typical of such rod geometries. The mass peak stability and ion rejection efficiency were also increased by factors of 2 and 10, respectively, with voltage scan lines passing through the center of stability islands formed from auxiliary excitation. Auxiliary excitation also resulted in factors of 6 and 2 in peak stability and ion rejection efficiency, respectively, for the hyperbolic rod sensor. These results not only have significant implications for the use of circular rod quadrupoles with applied excitation as a suitable replacement for traditional hyperbolic rod sensors, but also for extending the capabilities of existing hyperbolic rod QMSs for the next generation of spaceborne instruments and low-mass commercial systems.

An integral conservative gridding--algorithm using Hermitian curve interpolation

The problem of re-sampling spatially distributed data organized into regular or irregular grids to finer or coarser resolution is a common task in data processing. This procedure is known as 'gridding' or 're-binning'. Depending on the quantity the data represents, the gridding-algorithm has to meet different requirements. For example, histogrammed physical quantities such as mass or energy have to be re-binned in order to conserve the overall integral. Moreover, if the quantity is positive definite, negative sampling values should be avoided. The gridding process requires a re-distribution of the original data set to a user-requested grid according to a distribution function. The distribution function can be determined on the basis of the given data by interpolation methods. In general, accurate interpolation with respect to multiple boundary conditions of heavily fluctuating data requires polynomial interpolation functions of second or even higher order. However, this may result in unrealistic deviations (overshoots or undershoots) of the interpolation function from the data. Accordingly, the re-sampled data may overestimate or underestimate the given data by a significant amount. The gridding-algorithm presented in this work was developed in order to overcome these problems. Instead of a straightforward interpolation of the given data using high-order polynomials, a parametrized Hermitian interpolation curve was used to approximate the integrated data set. A single parameter is determined by which the user can control the behavior of the interpolation function, i.e. the amount of overshoot and undershoot. Furthermore, it is shown how the algorithm can be extended to multidimensional grids. The algorithm was compared to commonly used gridding-algorithms using linear and cubic interpolation functions. It is shown that such interpolation functions may overestimate or underestimate the source data by about 10-20%, while the new algorithm can be tuned to significantly reduce these interpolation errors. The accuracy of the new algorithm was tested on a series of x-ray CT-images (head and neck, lung, pelvis). The new algorithm significantly improves the accuracy of the sampled images in terms of the mean square error and a quality index introduced by Wang and Bovik (2002 IEEE Signal Process. Lett. 9 81-4).

Comparative Analysis of Evolving Software Systems Using the Gini Coefficient

Software metrics offer us the promise of distilling useful information from vast amounts of software in order to track development progress, to gain insights into the nature of the software, and to identify potential problems. Unfortunately, however, many software metrics exhibit highly skewed, non-Gaussian distributions. As a consequence, usual ways of interpreting these metrics --- for example, in terms of "average" values --- can be highly misleading. Many metrics, it turns out, are distributed like wealth --- with high concentrations of values in selected locations. We propose to analyze software metrics using the Gini coefficient, a higher-order statistic widely used in economics to study the distribution of wealth. Our approach allows us not only to observe changes in software systems efficiently, but also to assess project risks and monitor the development process itself. We apply the Gini coefficient to numerous metrics over a range of software projects, and we show that many metrics not only display remarkably high Gini values, but that these values are remarkably consistent as a project evolves over time.

Constraints on the effective fluid theory of stationary branes

We develop further the effective fluid theory of stationary branes. This formalism applies to stationary blackfolds as well as to other equilibrium brane systems at finite temperature. The effective theory is described by a Lagrangian containing the information about the elastic dynamics of the brane embedding as well as the hydrodynamics of the effective fluid living on the brane. The Lagrangian is corrected order-by-order in a derivative expansion, where we take into account the dipole moment of the brane which encompasses finite-thickness corrections, including transverse spin. We describe how to extract the thermodynamics from the Lagrangian and we obtain constraints on the higher-derivative terms with one and two derivatives. These constraints follow by comparing the brane thermodynamics with the conserved currents associated with background Killing vector fields. In particular, we fix uniquely the one- and two-derivative terms describing the coupling of the transverse spin to the background space-time. Finally, we apply our formalism to two blackfold examples, the black tori and charged black rings and compare the latter to a numerically generated solution.

Linking executive functions and procedural metacognition

Traditionally, researchers have discussed executive function and metacognition independently. However, more recently, theoretical frameworks linking these two groups of higher order cognitive processes have been advanced. In this article, we explore the relationship between executive function and procedural metacognition, and summarize theoretical similarities. From a developmental perspective, the assumed theoretical resemblances seem to be supported, considering development trajectories and their substantial impact on areas that include learning and memory. Moreover, empirical evidence suggests direct relationships on the task level, on the level of latent variables, and in terms of involved brain regions. However, research linking the two concepts directly remains rare. We discuss evidence and developmental mechanisms, and propose ways researchers can investigate links between executive function and procedural metacognition.

Semantic memory involvement in the default mode network: a functional neuroimaging study using independent component analysis

The Default Mode Network (DMN) is a higher order functional neural network that displays activation during passive rest and deactivation during many types of cognitive tasks. Accordingly, the DMN is viewed to represent the neural correlate of internally-generated self-referential cognition. This hypothesis implies that the DMN requires the involvement of cognitive processes, like declarative memory. The present study thus examines the spatial and functional convergence of the DMN and the semantic memory system. Using an active block-design functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) paradigm and Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we trace the DMN and fMRI signal changes evoked by semantic, phonological and perceptual decision tasks upon visually-presented words. Our findings show less deactivation during semantic compared to the two non-semantic tasks for the entire DMN unit and within left-hemispheric DMN regions, i.e., the dorsal medial prefrontal cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the retrosplenial cortex, the angular gyrus, the middle temporal gyrus and the anterior temporal region, as well as the right cerebellum. These results demonstrate that well-known semantic regions are spatially and functionally involved in the DMN. The present study further supports the hypothesis of the DMN as an internal mentation system that involves declarative memory functions.

The Bern psychopathology scale for the assessment of system-specific psychotic symptoms

The translation from psychiatric core symptoms to brain functions and vice versa is a largely unresolved issue. In particular, the search for disorders of single brain regions explaining classical symptoms has not yielded the expected results. Based on the assumption that the psychopathology of psychosis is related to a functional imbalance of higher-order brain systems, the authors focused on three specific candidate brain circuitries, namely the language, and limbic and motor systems. These domains are of particular interest for understanding the disastrous communication breakdown during psychotic disorders. Core symptoms of psychosis were mapped on these domains by shaping their definitions in order to match the related brain functions. The resulting psychopathological assessment scale was tested for interrater reliability and internal consistency in a group of 168 psychotic patients. The items of the scale were reliable and a principal component analysis (PCA) was best explained by a solution resembling the three candidate systems. Based on the results, the scale was optimized as an instrument to identify patient subgroups characterized by a prevailing dysfunction of one or more of these systems. In conclusion, the scale is apt to distinguish symptom domains related to the activity of defined brain systems. PCA showed a certain degree of independence of the system-specific symptom clusters within the patient group, indicating relative subgroups of psychosis. The scale is understood as a research instrument to investigate psychoses based on a system-oriented approach. Possible immediate advantages in the clinical application of the understanding of psychoses related to system-specific symptom domains are also discussed.